FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The FX moves seem defensive after last week's comments give rise to perceived odds of bold action by the ECB, according to the BBH analyst team.
"We worry that ECB President Draghi overplayed his hand", says BBH. "Reports indicate that his comments were not the result of negotiations and consultations and that his remarks surprised many on the governing council. That is to say, he did not secure his flanks".
"This reinforces our sense that he trying to deliver a fait accompli, forcing others to join him or risk destabilizing the markets…again", they add. "Moreover, we do not think a refi rate cut, some relaxation of collateral, and/or a resumption of bond purchases (under SMP) will do more than allow officials much breathing space. Key decisions will be coming to a head next month".
"We worry that ECB President Draghi overplayed his hand", says BBH. "Reports indicate that his comments were not the result of negotiations and consultations and that his remarks surprised many on the governing council. That is to say, he did not secure his flanks".
"This reinforces our sense that he trying to deliver a fait accompli, forcing others to join him or risk destabilizing the markets…again", they add. "Moreover, we do not think a refi rate cut, some relaxation of collateral, and/or a resumption of bond purchases (under SMP) will do more than allow officials much breathing space. Key decisions will be coming to a head next month".
