The ongoing EcoFin meeting is the next risk event to determine whether or not the constructive upmove can enjoy additional follow through. To simplify, note an agreement that carries substance on Greece new bailout terms is the catalyst needed for the pair to gather new upside momentum, as the market has been recently pricing in a positive resolution in Greece today.
Even if only a partial deal is struck among Eurozone FinMin, the EUR/JPY may see its downside largely limited, as the market resist to abandon overly bearish positions in the Yen ahead of what is promised to be a new era of aggressive easing by the BoJ, should the opposition party leader and former PM Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party takes power next December 6. Yen has been dumped recently on this huge expectations of pro-QE policies to achieve inflation targets of 2-3%.
So far, the EU FinMin have been touching on varies subjects, including the suspension for 10 years interest payments on loans provided to Greece by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Reuters reported citing an unnamed official.
Watching at the hottest technical levels, any fresh upleg will find extraordinary resistance at 105.00, level that represents not just a psychological number but also trendline resistance coming as far back as Oct 2009! A decisive break past this hurdle, and bulls would have cleared its way to next best area to short/take profits circa 105.50, March/April 2012 lows.
On the downside, closest support is located at 104.30, Nov 19 high, ahead of 103.90/104.00 round number, which coincides with Nov 1 high + 50% fibonacci retracement from the latest 103-104.76 rally. Below the latter, and risk is for a range breakout failure, which may set the stage for a retest of 102.80/103.00, Nov 16 low/Oct 5 high.