FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - AUD/NZD performed in a heavy undertone last Thursday, suffering the worst daily fall since Oct 2,. Kiwi caught a strong bid tone following an impulsive technical-led run thru a NZD/USD triangle break, benefiting the NZD across the board, including against the AUD, cracking through 1.2580/85 support zone to establish a new 2-week low at 1.2550.
While the mid term conditions are range-bound, with price playing a 1.30-1.24 range, on the short term, and after an inspiring corrective run by the Aussie until 1.2680/90 resistance failure, it seems as though the underlying downside bias may have the opportunity to be re-established again, with immediate support now at 1.2530 - Nov 4 low - ahead of 1.25 psychological number.
Only below 1.25, which comes around the 50% fibo from the latest Aussie daily run from 1.2370 to 1.2690, the inequality between buying and selling forces may become more obvious in favour of the last, thus potentially setting the stage for a new test of 1.2370/1.2400 area, where buyers should be camped. On the upside, recovery above 1.2580 up to 1.26 needed to ease selling.
The next volatile moves in this pair, however, are not expected to come about until Nov 6 Tuesday, when the RBA is due to announce its next momentary policies, with markets indecisive about the outcome. At present, 50/50 are the odds for a cut to 3% in rates or hold the fire at 3.25%. A cut and dovish statement would satisfy bears, while a hold and subject to the statement, certainly poses risks to the bearish tendencies in the pair. In a recent research note, NAB supports a cut next week.
While the mid term conditions are range-bound, with price playing a 1.30-1.24 range, on the short term, and after an inspiring corrective run by the Aussie until 1.2680/90 resistance failure, it seems as though the underlying downside bias may have the opportunity to be re-established again, with immediate support now at 1.2530 - Nov 4 low - ahead of 1.25 psychological number.
Only below 1.25, which comes around the 50% fibo from the latest Aussie daily run from 1.2370 to 1.2690, the inequality between buying and selling forces may become more obvious in favour of the last, thus potentially setting the stage for a new test of 1.2370/1.2400 area, where buyers should be camped. On the upside, recovery above 1.2580 up to 1.26 needed to ease selling.
The next volatile moves in this pair, however, are not expected to come about until Nov 6 Tuesday, when the RBA is due to announce its next momentary policies, with markets indecisive about the outcome. At present, 50/50 are the odds for a cut to 3% in rates or hold the fire at 3.25%. A cut and dovish statement would satisfy bears, while a hold and subject to the statement, certainly poses risks to the bearish tendencies in the pair. In a recent research note, NAB supports a cut next week.
