FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Strategist Doug Steel at BNZ, “We see the softer NZ domestic data and a firmer NZD increasing the chance of an OCR cut down the track., though not so much at the upcoming meeting however. In fact, we see little chance of a change. However we project the odds of a cut over coming quarters we would put as high as 40%.”
For now, we are giving the benefit of any doubt to the blip scenario – “we take some heart from the likes of improvement in some commodity prices and still moderately positive domestic consumer and business confidence.” he adds.
“So we think the RBNZ will hold the OCR at 2.50% on Thursday. After all, the domestic data surprises have been fairly marginal stuff relative to what the bank published in its September MPS. On our estimates: a tick on GDP growth through to the end of 2012, two ticks on the CPI, and the TWI is currently only just over 1% higher than the December quarter average anticipated.” Steel predicts.
For now, we are giving the benefit of any doubt to the blip scenario – “we take some heart from the likes of improvement in some commodity prices and still moderately positive domestic consumer and business confidence.” he adds.
“So we think the RBNZ will hold the OCR at 2.50% on Thursday. After all, the domestic data surprises have been fairly marginal stuff relative to what the bank published in its September MPS. On our estimates: a tick on GDP growth through to the end of 2012, two ticks on the CPI, and the TWI is currently only just over 1% higher than the December quarter average anticipated.” Steel predicts.
