FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - USD/JPY fell from 78.65 to as low as 78.07 Monday, as the safe-haven yen outperformed on the day. The 100-day EMA helped to limit upside potential, as did the descending trendline measured from the peak of June 25 to that of August 20.

At the Tokyo Fix, the Nikkei is trading down 35.80 points, or 0.4% at 8,827.50, while Australia’s ASX is up 22.14 points, or 0.5% at 4,504.00. USD/JPY is trading at a flat 78.32, showing little reaction after Japan current account and trade balance data for August .

As Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com explains in a research note, according to COT report an “extreme amount of longs in the USD/JPY,” she says, “are only adding to the bearish tone that is set now to break again below the 78.00 area.” Technically speaking, the analyst also explains that, “What actually ads to the bearish case, is the fact that the pair failed again at the 100 DMA,” having been unable to sustain gains above the mean since late May.