FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Looking at a historical representation of G5 economic exports data Kit Juckes, Global Head of FX Strategy at Societe Generale notes that when comparing the US and the UK, the UK slumped in 2012 due to dependence on exporting to Europe.
He feels that the weak pound policy has sent up inflation but done relatively little to help exports and that the result of the poor trade performance will be further GBP selling. He writes, “so far, so sily, and so sterling negative. Looking to Germany against the US, he notes that in out performing the German export machine, the US is winning the currency war. Next, adding Japan to the equation and concludes quite simply that Japan is the big loser of the currency war. Finally, he added French exports and sees that the French are really struggling, only marginally better than the Japanese. In this sense, he concludes that the UK is doing a lot better than its nearest economic neighbour. Juckes continues to conclude that, “Buying USD/JPY is the obvious conclusion. Working out when to fade the Euro rally (not yet, for sure) is the next question.”
He feels that the weak pound policy has sent up inflation but done relatively little to help exports and that the result of the poor trade performance will be further GBP selling. He writes, “so far, so sily, and so sterling negative. Looking to Germany against the US, he notes that in out performing the German export machine, the US is winning the currency war. Next, adding Japan to the equation and concludes quite simply that Japan is the big loser of the currency war. Finally, he added French exports and sees that the French are really struggling, only marginally better than the Japanese. In this sense, he concludes that the UK is doing a lot better than its nearest economic neighbour. Juckes continues to conclude that, “Buying USD/JPY is the obvious conclusion. Working out when to fade the Euro rally (not yet, for sure) is the next question.”
