According to Adrian Foster, analyst at Rabobank, “As I see it they’re a mixed bag with New Home sales pointing to earlier rate cuts flowing through to the real economy. The credit numbers are ambiguous as December’s improvement was largely pay-back for November weakness and the 4Q rise was slow. The export and import price data show the international economy withdrew support for Australia in 4Q (via lower export prices) whilst not adding in any meaningful sense to inflationary pressures. Export prices have improved more recently, though, especially for iron-ore”. The expert also expects the RBA to cut 25 bps the repo rate on February 5th, weighting on the AUD.
At the moment, the pair is down 0.13% at 1.0403 facing the next support at 1.0384 (low Jan.28) ahead of 1.0375 (low Jan.2) and finally 1.0367 (50% of 1.0149-1.0585).
On the upside, a breakout of 1.0411 (daily cloud base) would clear the way to 1.0445 (hourly high/low Jan.29/30) and then 1.0464 (daily cloud top).