FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Although rallying above the 1.2600 mark on Friday, the pair closed the week below it, around the 100-hour moving average, at 1.2578. The market is testing the area ahead of the European opening.

After recovering to the opening price in late Asian session, the EUR/USD fell off again to the lower range of the trading day, 1.2560/65. However, the pair is already improving again.

Manufacturing PMI data come ahead all over Europe, with particular interest in Germany’s expected improvement from 43.0 to 45.1 in August, followed by EMU’s consensus of a rise from 44.0 to 45.3. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak at 13:30 GMT.

“While we cannot rule out further upside probes very near term, what we would highlight is the resistance now gets ‘serious’”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, pointing to high risk of failure at 1.2657 and 1.2748 (June high), and the resumption of the medium term downtrend past below 1.2407.