FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The global trade balance in Italy is a €2.517B surplus, according to June figures, while the trade balance with EU countries is a €0.997B surplus. Both improving previous numbers.

The ECB monthly report just got in, keeping 2012 HICP and long term inflation forecasts at 2.3% and 2.0%. The 2013 HICP was lowered from 1.8% to 1.7%, and inflation in 2014 is expected to end at 1.9%.

The ECB widened its contraction expectations from -0.2% to -0.3% in 2012, but point to +0.6% growth in 2013 and +1.4% in 2014.

“We suspect that the move higher has terminated ahead of the 2 month channel resistance at 1.2500”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones.