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UPDATE: Polish Apr Output -12.4% On Year; Below Forecast

 
   (Adds detail and analyst comment) 
 
   By Malgorzata Halaba and Marek Strzelecki 
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 
 

WARSAW (Dow Jones)--Polish industrial output fell an annual 12.4%, a steeper decline than the previous month, according to production figures issued Wednesday by the Central Statistics Office, or GUS.

April's industrial output reading was worse than the average forecast for an 11.2% decrease in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 11 bank economists.

Output fell at a faster pace in April than a revised 1.9% year-on-year decline in March.

However, the fall might not be enough to convince the central bank's Monetary Policy Council, or the RPP, to resume interest rate cuts at its next policy meeting May 27.

Instead, the inflation-concerned RPP will probably decide to pause for a month and wait for the most recent inflation projection due in June.

On the month, April industrial production fell 7.1%, compared with a revised 15.6% monthly rise in March. The figures are preliminary.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, April output fell an annual 8.0%, less than March's 10.8% decline.

April's decline was mainly due to the calendar effect of one less working day over the year-earlier period. Economists also pointed out the 8.1% monthly decline in car manufacturing, which probably added around one percentage point to the annual output decline.

Bank Pekao economists said coupled with lower-than-expected April producer price index data, the figures signaled that producer price inflation pressure is easing, increasing the likelihood of one more rate cut in June.

 
   GUS Web site: www.stat.gov.pl 
 

-By Malgorzata Halaba and Marek Strzelecki, Dow Jones Newswires; +4822 447-2433; marek.strzelecki@dowjones.com

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 20, 2009 08:55 ET (12:55 GMT)


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