The pair opened the week a fraction softer at 79.25 (5 pips below the close late Friday) and holds a “limited bearish tone” in the 1 hour time frame, as noted by Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com in a research note. However, if sellers manage to regain control, the “100 SMA … offers now short term support around 79.00 and bearish momentum should accelerate if the level gives up,” explains the analyst; in larger time frames, Ms. Bednarik finds that the technical picture is “still pretty bullish.”
An upside move above the 79.45 resistance area may then encounter further resistance at 79.65 (Aug 20 high), 79.78 (38.2%, 84.17/77.12 downswing) and 79.95 (July 12 high). Beyond the mentioned 79.00 support area (100 SMA), bids may be tested in the 78.90-85 area (Sep 17 high; Oct 5 high) and 78.75.
Japanese Trade Balance data for September is on offer at 23:50 GMT, when the Ministry of Finance is expected to report a deficit of ¥570.1B from the ¥754.1B deficit recorded in the previous month.