The focus will be on Bernanke’s speech on Friday and also on ECB’s Draghi on Saturday. According to FX Strategist Melinda Burgess at RBS, “Markets may need to wait until the September ECB and Fed meetings but if more action is seen from both central banks this should underpin risk positive sentiment. Correlations suggest that the GBP/crosses remain more sensitive to rate spreads than risk sentiment, but a renewed risk positive environment should tend to undermine GBP vs. the G10 currencies, with the exception of GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.”
Worries over the slowdown in China and commodities have knocked some of the shine off the AUD and GBP/AUD correlations, though risk has been weakening gradually over recent months. “The AUD does however tend to be one of the more risk sensitive G10 currencies and so if Bernanke does sound dovish in his speech on Friday this week, GBP/AUD has potential to decline towards our short term fair value measure.” Burgess adds.