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POLL-Japan trade surplus seen down 62.7 pct y/y

Mon, Oct 20 2008, 22:18 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com

TOKYO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Japan's trade surplus probably shrank nearly 63 percent in September as a global slowdown and the financial crisis hurt one of the most important growth drivers for the world's second-largest economy.

Japan, which is seen as either slipping into recession or already in one, has probably seen exports rise 5.2 percent while imports jumped 24 percent, a poll of 29 economists showed.

Following are polls for major Japanese indicators scheduled for the week of Oct 20-24:

LOCAL LOCAL MEDIAN

DATE TIME/GMT INDICATOR PERIOD F/CAST PRIOR

----------------------------------------------------------------

23OCT 0850/2350* Trade Balance (y/y) Sept -62.7% --

23OCT 0850/2350* Trade Bal. Total (bln yen) Sept 600.0b -327.6b

23OCT 0850/2350* Exports (y/y) Sept 5.2% 0.3%

23OCT 0850/2350* Imports (y/y) Sept 24.0% 17.3%

----------------------------------------------------------------

Note: Dates and times are local, followed by GMT time. Asterisk* means GMT is previous day

TRADE SURPLUS

-- Japan's custom-cleared trade balance logged its first deficit in 26 years in August as sky-high crude oil prices pushed up imports. At the same time, overseas demand for Japan-made goods is falling due to the spreading financial crisis.

-- The median forecast from 29 economists was for a 600 billion yen trade deficit for September.

-- Exports are expected to have risen 5.2 percent while imports probably jumped 24 percent.

-- Economists are keeping a close watch on how the recent peak-out of crude oil prices and the spread of an economic slowdown to emerging markets will affect the trade balance. Japan relies heavily on exports for a potential recovery.

-- Following are forecasts for the trade balance in billions of yen and year-on-year changes in exports and imports in September:

Trade balance Exports Imports

Median 600.0 +5.2 +24.0

High 995.0 +8.2 +30.6

Low 170.0 -2.9 +14.2

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Monex 479.0 7.0 29.0

Goldman Sachs 632.3 6.0 25.0

Mizuho Securities 730.0 5.2 22.2

Nomura Research 363.6 5.4 29.0

RBS 995.0 5.0 18.0

UBS 236.2 -0.3 24.0

Barclays Capital 372.7 3.2 26.0

Daiwa SB Investment 769.7 -0.4 14.3

Dai-ichi Life Research 535.5 n/a n/a

Japan Research 571.6 4.7 24.4

Informa Global Markets 650.0 6.1 24.8

Morgan Stanley 170.0 n/a n/a

Norinchukin Research 190.0 n/a n/a

Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 600.0 7.5 27.5

Mitsui Sumitomo AM 910.0 6.0 20.1

Calyon 565.0 2.4 21.5

Mitsubishi UFJ Research 800.0 4.7 20.4

Mitsubishi Research 490.0 8.0 30.0

Merrill Lynch 620.0 n/a n/a

Nikko Citigroup 475.0 8.2 30.6

Daiwa SMBC 750.0 6.8 24.0

NLI Research 435.4 5.4 27.7

Mizuho Research 596.4 -2.9 14.2

Deutsche Securities 910.0 5.5 19.5

JP Morgan 741.0 3.0 19.0

Okasan Research 700.0 n/a n/a

Credit Suisse 798.0 n/a n/a

BNP Paribas 346.0 3.5 26.9

Daiwa Research 780.0 3.0 18.6

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(Reporting by Tokyo Economic Policy Desk)

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