DATA SNAP: Brazil's October Trade Surplus Unchanged At $1.33B

 
 (Brazil monthly trade surplus/deficit) 
          Oct     Sept     Aug      July     June     May 
Forecast  $1.47B  $2.00B   $2.74B   $3.43B   $4.14B   $2.34B 
Actual    $1.33B  $1.33B   $3.06B   $2.93B   $4.63B   $2.65B 
 
   By Rogerio Jelmayer 
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 
 

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's foreign trade surplus of $1.33 billion in October was unchanged from September, with both imports and exports rising slightly due to a broad economic recovery both in Brazil and overseas.

In October, Brazil's trade surplus reached $1.33 billion. The surplus in September also was $1.33 billion. In an extremely odd coincidence, the surplus also was $1.33 billion in October 2008.

The October 2009 figure was slightly lower than analyst expectations. The median forecast among eight analysts consulted by Dow Jones Newswires was for an October trade surplus of $1.47 billion. The forecasts came in a range of $1.28 billion to $1.7 billion.

October saw monthly exports of $14.08 billion and imports of $12.75 billion. Exports in September were $13.86 billion while imports were $12.53 billion.

According to economists, higher commodities prices and steady international demand are helping to keep Brazilian export revenue on an upward curve.

"The trend for November, however, is for an even bigger increase in imports because local companies have started to build inventories for the end of the year," said Jason Vieira, an economist at Sao Paulo's UpTrend consulting group.

Along with year-end demand, the appreciation of the Brazilian real and the expansion of the Brazilian economy also are fueling imports.

The strong real has made imports seem unusually cheap. The real has appreciated by about 35% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, Brazil's gross domestic product expanded by 1.9% in the second quarter from the first quarter of this year, according to the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE. The second-quarter figures spelled the end of a brief recession.

With the latest figures, Brazil's trade surplus in the first 10 months of 2009 totaled $22.6 billion, higher than the $21.0 billion seen in the same period of 2008.

Nevertheless, analysts are still expecting comparatively weak trade performance for 2009 on effects of the global recession during the first half of the year.

Brazil's foreign trade surplus narrowed significantly last year to $24.74 billion. The surplus in 2007 was $40.03 billion.

According to the central bank's weekly survey of expert opinion, released earlier Tuesday, the 2009 foreign trade surplus will reach just $26.0 billion, only slightly higher than last year. The weekly survey tracks the opinions of 100 analysts and economists from banks and brokerages, reporting the average of their expectations.

-By Rogerio Jelmayer and Tom Murphy, Dow Jones Newswires; 5511-2847-4521; brazil@dowjones.com

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 03, 2009 08:19 ET (13:19 GMT)


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