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Analysts Comments
The U.S. Dollar (USD)
Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at CMC MarketsMon, May 12 2008, 15:10 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "The dollar is unlikely to make a sustained climb higher against the euro until euro zone data starts coming in markedly weaker, forcing the ECB to consider rate cuts. We do not anticipate stronger than expected US data alone can trigger any prolonged euro selling due to the continued mixed signals emitted from the broader U.S. reports and the unambiguously hawkish ECB stance confirmed at last week's press conference."
Yuji Saito, head of foreign-exchange sales at Société Générale in Tokyo
Mon, May 12 2008, 11:29 GMT
The Associated Press - "Importers are voracious (for the dollar) today, and that prompted other short-term-focused players to buy the currency."
James Hughes, analyst at CMC Markets
Mon, May 12 2008, 10:27 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "Much of the recent dollar appreciation is on the back of speculation that the country's economy may have turned something of a corner so anything that serves to derail this observation will ultimately end up weighing on the greenback."
James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk
Mon, May 12 2008, 10:23 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "We seem to be reacting a bit more negatively to dollar strength. In the short term, that is one of the factors (the gold market) will remain vulnerable to. Also, physical demand seems to be a bit lower than in the last year or so - probably an effect of higher prices."
Nigel Gault, economist at Global Insight
Fri, May 9 2008, 15:39 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "Trade continues to be a huge support for the U.S. economy. The figures point to an upward revision in first quarter real GDP."
The Euro (EUR)
Gavin Friend, currency strategist at Commerzbank Corporates & MarketsMon, May 12 2008, 10:28 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "Short speculative euro positions... are likely to remain in force until weaker U.S. data (which we expect to persist) balance up current pro-dollar sentiment:"
Andrew Chaveriat, technical foreign exchange analyst at BNP Paribas
Fri, May 9 2008, 14:31 GMT
Dow Jones - "The euro appears to finally have completed its sharp 2-1/2 week decline."
Benedikt Germanier, currency strategist at UBS in Zurich
Fri, May 9 2008, 14:29 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "The ECB's lending survey published today shows a further progression of the credit crunch."
Niels Christensen, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:41 GMT
Reuters - "It's fair to say that speculation that the ECB would deliver a softer stance was why the euro dipped to $1.53, and it recovered as (these expectations) were disappointed."
Hideaki Inoue, chief manager of forex trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:36 GMT
The Guardian - "Trichet stuck to inflation concerns but the markets are looking ahead to worsening economic conditions in the euro zone. That puts a drag on the euro's rebound, and it will test $1.52 next week when European financial institutions issue earnings reports."
The British Pound (GBP)
Benedikt Germanier, currency strategist at UBS in ZurichMon, May 12 2008, 15:16 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "Today's data (UK PPI and Trade Balance) does suggest the MPC will unlikely take comfort in such results... the Committee will need to see more evidence of slowing activity in order to continue cutting interest rates."
Alan Clarke, economist at BNP Paribas
Mon, May 12 2008, 10:22 GMT
Dow Jones - "All in all, an ugly release for the Bank of England that confirms not just that pipeline pressures are building, but that there is increasing evidence that food and energy pressures are spilling over into broader measures of producer prices. While firms are likely to limit the transmission of price pressures to core consumer prices, squeezing their profit margins, this PPI report will only raise fears at the Bank of England that the base effect driven spike in inflation this summer could become more enduring."
George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank
Mon, May 12 2008, 10:21 GMT
Dow Jones - "With the MPC worried about inflation pressures, if the remaining data do not soften speedily enough, a rate cut in June - our current call - could be at risk. Importantly, while the committee would have known tomorrow's CPI reading, today's PPI report would not have been available to them when they met to set rates last week - this is new information for the BOE."
Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight
Fri, May 9 2008, 14:29 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "The financial pressure on many home owners is increasing, and it seems certain that repossessions will trend up appreciably over the coming months, particularly if the economy suffers an extended marked slowdown and unemployment starts rising, which seems likely."
Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS Financial Markets
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:38 GMT
Reuters - "I don't think the BoE is fooling anyone. It's clear that the data are weakening more quickly than the bank probably had thought. It will be important to see what the (BoE quarterly) inflation report says. If it just says the bank will need to cut rates twice to get inflation back down to target then they are likely to move sooner rather than later."
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Steve Pearson, currency strategist at HBOSFri, May 9 2008, 10:25 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "The major equity indices are struggling to push much beyond a 50 percent retracement of the initial November to March sell-off and are now entering what looks on the basis of previous equity bear market experience the most likely timeframe for a second leg down. Reflecting this the yen has started to gain traction, with some weakness evident in relatively high yielding and emerging market currencies."
Mitsuru Sahara, senior vice president of forex trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:10 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "The yen tends to be picked up when stocks decline as investors' risk tolerance decreases. So there is the continuing carry-trade move, although it is not as intensive as it used to be."
Naoki Murakami, senior economist at Goldman Sachs
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:07 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "A serious downtrend of residential investment took a breather, but fallout from the revived construction law continues to drag on the economy, given rises in inventories of construction goods and emerging labour adjustments in the related sectors."
Taro Saito, senior economist at NLI Research Institute
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:06 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "Against such odds as the deterioration of consumer sentiment due to rises in gasoline and food prices and tepid rises in wage income, private consumption grew at a healthy pace in the March quarter as the leap year factor inflated the growth pace."
Junko Nishioka, senior economist at ABN AMRO Securities
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:06 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "Although we had previously expected a contraction for this quarter, mostly in reaction to the strong growth in the previous quarter, the economy achieved a brisk growth. Exports served as a key growth driver as solid exports to the Middle East, Russia and the European Union more than offset falls in shipments to the United States."
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Stephen Halmarick, director and strategist at CitigroupFri, May 9 2008, 10:34 GMT
The Age - "The clear implication from the RBA's statement today is that the risks to inflation, and therefore official interest rates, remain to the upside in the near-term."
Alex Sinton, senior dealer at ANZ National Bank
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:34 GMT
SMH - "The Aussie has had underlying support, with the employment data that came out yesterday."
Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:33 GMT
Herald Sun - "I don't see anything in this (RBA) statement to suggest that the currency should be lower. In fact, I'd probably suggest slightly the opposite. But I think the market may have been braced for these revisions so maybe that's it."
Michael Workman, senior economist at Commonwealth Bank
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:10 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "In our view, an exceptionally pessimistic growth view is required to justify the new RBA inflation forecasts."
Craig James, chief equities economist at CommSec
Fri, May 9 2008, 10:09 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "The Reserve Bank believes it has done enough to slow the economy but it is not totally convinced. The simple message is that if spending picks up consumers will need to factor in further rate hikes."
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Eric Lascelles, strategist at TD SecuritiesFri, May 9 2008, 14:39 GMT
Reuters - "The overall pace of job growth was stronger than expected and presumably that's what drove the immediate rally in the currency. But the details of the report aren't quite as strong and I think that's probably what caused the pullback."
Stewart Hall, currency strategist at HSBC
Fri, May 9 2008, 14:38 GMT
National Post - "From a policy standpoint it really doesn't change the outlook for the Bank of Canada for June 10 in that the expectations remain that they will go another 25 basis points at that juncture."
Doug Porter, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns
Fri, May 9 2008, 14:37 GMT
National Post - "Overall the report is a little bit stronger than expected. It does seem like job growth has lost a touch of momentum from the extraordinary strong pace of the past couple years."
Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital
Fri, May 9 2008, 14:33 GMT
Dow Jones - "The Canadian dollar has done a little bit better on the week so far, but all-in-all, the range trading type of environment is still very much intact. Even with oil over $125 per barrel, there really doesn't seem to be a catalyst yet to break us out of this range."
James Vola, economist at Thomson IFR Markets
Fri, May 9 2008, 14:28 GMT
Thomson Financial News - "So far, Canadian employment has held up amazingly well. The expectation had been that a slowdown in the U.S. would hurt Canada, but as of yet that has not shown up in the job market, barring manufacturing."
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Igor Kulaga, Analytic and Risk manager at Forex LtdFri, May 9 2008, 09:32 GMT
Forex Ltd - "The assumed test of the key support range has been confirmed but the relative rise of bearish activity revealed by OsMA indicator did not dispose to immediate realization of the pre-planned buyers’ positions. At present taking into account the existent minimal advantage of bearish party as well as reversal bullish moment of indicator chart, we assume a possibility of pair return to resistance range 1.0500/20, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sales on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.0440/60, 1.0400/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.0340/60, 1.0280/1.0300. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.0560 with the targets 1.0600/20, 1.0660/80."
Cornelius Luca, economist at Global Forex Trading Ltd
Fri, May 9 2008, 09:26 GMT
Global Forex Trading Ltd - "Dollar/Swiss fell from an over two-month high to close lower on Thursday. My model is long and the medium-term outlook remains bullish. But the pair is overbought and the short-term outlook is slightly bearish. Immediate support is now seen at 1.0440. Below it, the pair has further support at 1.0375. Distant support is then pegged at 1.0255. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0545. This is followed by 1.0622. Distant resistance remains at 1.0795."
Cornelius Luca, economist at Global Forex Trading Ltd
Thu, May 8 2008, 09:20 GMT
Global Forex Trading Ltd - "Dollar/Swiss rallied to a new high for the upmove. My model is long and the medium-term outlook remains bullish. The short-term outlook is bullish. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0627. This is followed by 1.0690. Distant resistance now comes at 1.0795. Immediate support is now seen at 1.0550. This is followed by 1.0510. Below 1.0430, the pair has further support at 1.0375. Distant support is then pegged at 1.0255."
Cornelius Luca, economist at Global Forex Trading Ltd
Wed, May 7 2008, 09:23 GMT
Global Forex Trading Ltd - "Dollar/Swiss reversed early losses to close basically unchanged on Tuesday. My model is long and the medium-term outlook remains bullish. The short-term outlook is bullish as well. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0550. This is followed by 1.0596. Above 1.0610, distant resistance now comes at 1.0795. Immediate support is now seen at 1.0485. Below 1.0430, the pair has further support at 1.0375. Distant support is then pegged at 1.0255."
Cornelius Luca, economist at Global Forex Trading Ltd
Tue, May 6 2008, 11:46 GMT
Global Forex Trading Ltd - "Dollar/Swiss slipped in an inside range. My model is long and the medium-term outlook remains bullish. However, the short-term outlook is bearish. Immediate support is now seen at 1.0510. Below 1.0465 there is further support at 1.0375. Distant support is then pegged at 1.0255. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0610. This is followed by 1.0795. Distant resistance now comes at 1.0855."
The Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY)
Xia Bin, director general of the Development Research Center under China's State CouncilTue, Apr 29 2008, 09:37 GMT
Dow Jones - "(We should) take the adjustment of foreign exchange policies as an important task, stabilizing market expectation of the exchange rate, sending a relatively stable exchange-rate signal to the market, and ensuring the stable growth of the economy. (We) shouldn't adjust the exchange rate according to a range that the market has imagined. (We) should consider the economic development of the past few years and give the yuan a relatively stable level."
Joseph Yam, HKMA Chief Executive
Thu, Apr 24 2008, 10:50 GMT
Dow Jones - "The increase in renminbi (yuan) deposits is a natural market response and has limited monetary implications for Hong Kong and the mainland...we are talking about very small amounts, compared with the total size of capital inflows into the mainland. It clearly does not threaten the status of the Hong Kong dollar, as some have suggested."
Zhang Sihyuan, analyst with Southwest Securities
Wed, Apr 16 2008, 11:05 GMT
Reuters - "Export growth will slow down in the second quarter, mainly due to weakening demand from the United States. As you can see, many companies have already felt the pinch."
Yiping Huang, chief Asia economist at Citigroup
Wed, Apr 16 2008, 11:04 GMT
Reuters - "Inflation remains a challenge; it remains at a very high level. In the short term they will probably want to continue to tighten. But I suspect that within several months, the growth risks might overtake the inflation risks."
Glenn Maguire, chief economist at Societe Generale Asia Pacific
Wed, Apr 16 2008, 11:04 GMT
Reuters - "The fact that they've moved immediately in response to the data today neatly highlights just how strong the Chinese economy remains at this stage."
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