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"Yes" camp regains lead in EMU poll
Thu, Feb 28 2008, 10:10 GMT
by Steen Bocian
While support for Denmark.s participation in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has enjoyed a stable lead over the “no” side in recent years, Danske Bank.s poll in January pointed to a “no” win for the first time since summer 2001. The “no” lead has proved short-lived, however, with the “yes”
camp
regaining the lead in February. Our opinion poll showed that 42.9% of those
Danes surveyed would definitely vote “yes” to Denmark’s participation in the EMU- while
40.6% stated they would definitely vote “no”. Add to this the 6.9% who are in doubt but
lean towards a “yes” and the
6.7% who lean towards a “no”, and the “yes” lead is
2.6 percentage points. Approximately 3% replied “don’t know”.
It would
seem that the stronger “no” vote in January was an isolated occurrence, although it is very clear
that the Danes are in considerable doubt about which way to vote. The February
poll is the third we have commissioned since the discussion of Denmark’s
participation in the EMU moved a little higher up the agenda in the wake of the
policy statement presented by the third Fogh Rasmussen government in November
last year. Common to all three of the latest polls is that the lead of both the
definite “yes” and the definite “no” side has never been greater than 3.2 percentage points. The scene is
therefore set for a very close race if the Danes do indeed go to the bal-lot
box to vote on the EMU opt-out.
The government.s policy statement paved the way for a referendum on the Danish EU opt-outs within the term of the current parliament, ie, by autumn 2011 at the latest. However, it is uncertain whether the proposal concerned all four opt-outs, or only, for example, the defence and legal opt-outs. Nevertheless, the policy statement renewed the Danes’ focus on the EU, including the EMU. While there was nothing explicit stated about the timing of any future referendum, the autumn of this year would be a good bet, in our view. However, whether or not the EMU issue would be included is rather uncertain - given the statements being uttered by politicians at the moment, it would seem most likely that only the defence and legal opt-outs would be put to the vote in the first round.
Published on Thu, Feb 28 2008, 11:15 GMT
Danske Bank
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http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
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