Economic and Financial Market Highlights (29th of August – 4th of September 2009)

With most of the Q2 09 GDP reports and key data releases out of the way in Asia, positive surprises in the domestic economic activity are the common trend after the sharp declines seen in Q1. Australia, India and Korea reported stronger growth than forecast. China and Singapore’s PMI readings in July reached recent peaks above the 50-mark, while industrial output in Japan and Korea continued rising on the month albeit at a slower pace. Further, Australia’s building approvals and retail sales in Hong Kong and Japan beat expectations and rise month-on-month. As a result, the disinflation process is slowing down across the region and the central bank in Australia held rates steady. Japanese elections results failed to surprise stock markets and currencies, which nevertheless had mixed results across Asia.

Greater China

• China's National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Purchasing Managers Index rose to 54.0 in August from 53.3 in July. It was the sixth consecutive month that the NBS PMI stayed above the 50 mark after being below that level from October to February. The new orders subindex of the PMI rose to 56.3 in August from 55.5 in July. But the new export orders subindex was flat at 52.1 in August compared with July, showing the outlook for external trade is improving, but remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (previously known as CLSA PMI) rose to 55.1 in August from 52.8 in July, the fifth consecutive month this PMI has been above the threshold of 50, after hovering below this key level for eight months.

• Hong Kong's retail sales value decreased 5.5% year-on-year in July, following a revised 4.7% fall in June but nevertheless ahead of the market’s expectation of a 6.0% yoy slump. Meanwhile, retail sales volume fell 5.4%, in line with economists' estimates, but faster than a revised 4.1% fall in the preceding month. The steepest drops in volume sales were recorded in motor vehicles and footwear while fuel, jewellery and luxury goods improved. Month-on-month, seasonally adjusted retail sales climbed 0.6% following June’s 2.0% mom