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Weekly Market View

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31

5

Turblent Times

Fri, Oct 31 2008, 07:34 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have been seeing turblent times that we have never experienced bforeOn 29 Oct, Fed decided to cut the ongoing interest rate by 50bps to 1.00%. U.S. Stocks bounced slightly after the release, that helped the JPY crosses to move upward.

High volatility remains in the Forex market. We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets. The have several explosive events. On schedule, we have the central banks' interest rate decisions, followed by the RBA, the BoE and the ECB. Furthermore, significant events are also released such as ISM Non-manufacturing index, the U.K. retail sales, and Canadian unemployment rate and the big nonfarm payrolls. Alright. Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Nov 2nd) we have the following events to watch

• In Australia, AIG Manufacturing Index (Previous 47.2) and Retail Sales Trend (Previous 0.3%) are events to follow. These events are expected to generate low volatility for the AUD.

On Monday (Nov 3rd) Focus on the ISM Manufacturing Index and the RBA Interest Rate Decision

• In Switzerland, SVME PMI (Previous 47.8) is an event to follow.
• In Euro zone, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 41.3) is scheduled at 05:00 GMT.
• In the U.K. BoE King speech and Manufacturing PMI (Previous 41.0) are events to follow.
• In the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (Previous 43.5) is a remarkable event to watch.
• The Index considered as an early indicator for the nonfarm payrolls is one of the biggest economic events that could generate high volatility for the USD.
• In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Prices (Previous –4.9%) is an event to monitor.
• In Australia, the RBA Intersest Rate Announcement (Current 6.00%) is scheduled at 23:30 GMT. Be aware USD/AUD traders

On Tuesday (Nov 4th) U.S. Presidential Election Day

• In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.8 %) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
• In the Euro zone, PPI (Previous –0.5%9 is released at 06:00 GMT.
• In the U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 50) can not be missed to follow.
• In Japan, Trade Balance (Previous 1.36B) is released at 20:30 GMT. Later on at 22:30 GMT, GoJ governor Shirakawa gives a press conference. Let’s see how the BoJ consideres the highly appreciated JPY.

On Wednesday (Nov 5th) we have the following events to watch

• In The U.K. Industrial Production (Previous –0.6%), Leading Index (Previous –0.6%) and NIESR GDP Estimate (Previous –0.2%) are important events to monitor.
• In the U.K. Retail Sales (Previous 0.3%) is a notable event to consider.
• In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Previous -8K) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Previous 50.2) are remarkable events to follow. These events could serve as an early indiator for the big nonfarm payrolls as well.
• In New Zealand, Unemployment Rate (Previous 3.9%) is released at 17:45 GMT.
• In Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are releassed at 19:50 GMT. The content of the last minutes might generate high volatility for the JPY.
• In Australia, Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.3%) is scheduled at 20:30 MT.

On Thursday (Nov 6th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

• In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement (Current 4.50% , at 08:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 3.75%, at 08:45 GMT) are released in sequence.
• The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 09:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the current economic outlook in the Eurozone and the recent value of the EUR.
• In Canada, Ivey PMI (Previous 61.0) is released at 11:00 GMT.

On Friday (Nov 7th) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events

• In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate (Previous 2.6%) is an event to follow.
• In Germany, Trade Balance (Previous 13.1B) and Industrial Production (Previous 3.4%) are important events to monitor.
• In Canada, Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1%) is a notable event to watch.
• In the US, the Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.0%), Non-Farm Payrolls (the NFP. Previous -159K), the Average Hourly Earnings (Previous 0.2%) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to generate excessive volatility for the USD against the other majors.
• All of the events are released at 09:30 GMT. Later on Pending Home Sales (Previous 7.4%) is released at 11:00 GMT.

Published on  Fri, Oct 31 2008, 07:39 GMT