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Weekly Market View

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Easing Off Risk Aversion?

Fri, Oct 17 2008, 13:36 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Last week, with investors a watching very closely any upcoming economic indicators to assess  the real outlook for the global economy. U.S. economic data depicting short-term economic trends did not give reasons for optimism. Industrial production recorded its worst decline since 1974. (Actual -2.8% vs forecast 0.9%), and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey established its lowest record at -37.5 since Oct 1990, besides, N.Y. Fed index (actual -24.62 vs forecast -10.00) and U.S. retail sales (actual -1.2% vs forecast -0.6%) have added reasons for concern.

JPY crosses have recovered slightly as global stocks rebounded sharply after a heavy fall last week, driven G7's call on further action against the global financial crisis. USD/CAD hit its highest record in last 36 months at 1.2127 on Friday10th Oct. It seems thast volatility arrived ti the markets to stay. Although we do not have too many economic events for next week , several explosive ones are scheduled. We can not afford to miss any of them. Let´s review them all.

On Sunday (Oct 19th) we have the following events to watch:

• In the U.K. Rightmove HPI Index (Previous -1.0%) is released at 23:01 GMT.

On Monday (Oct 20th) we have the following events to watch:

• In Germany, PPI (Previous -0.6%) is an event to watch.
• In the U.K. M4 Money Supply (Previous 1.4%) and Public sector Net Borrowing (Previous 10.4B) are released at 08:30 GMT.
• In Canada, Foreign Securities Purchases (Previous -5.59B) is released at 12:30 GMT.
• In the U.S. The fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony is scheduled at 14:00 GMT.
• In New Zealand, CPI (Previous 1.6%) is an event to watch.

On Tuesday (Oct 21st) we have the following events to watch:

• In Australia, RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released at 00:30 GMT. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the AUD.
• In Switzerland, Trade balance (Previous 1.43B) is an event to monitor.
• In Canada, BoC Interest Rate Statement (Current 2.50%) is announced at 13:00 GMT.
• In Japan, All Industries Activity (Previous 0.8%) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday (Oct 22nd) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

• In Australia, CPI (Previous 1.5%) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
• In the U.K. MPC Meeting Minutes are released at 08:30 GMT. The content of the meeting may generate high volatility for the GBP.
• In Canada, Both Retail Sales (Previous 0.1%) and Core Retail Sales (Previous 0.4%) are remarkable events to take into account. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
• In New Zealand, RBNZ Interest Rate Announcement is scheduled (Previous 7.50%) at 20:00 GMT. Be aware NZD traders.
• In the Euro-Zone, PMI is a remarkable event to watch ( previous 53.2), followed by Current Account ( previous 1.7B ).
• In Japan, Trade Balance (Previous -0.11T) is to be taken into account.

On Thursday (Oct 23rd) we have the following events to watch:

• In Euro zone, Current Account (Previous -1.7B) and Industrial New orders (Previous 1.0%) are notable events to monitor.
• In the U.K. Retail Sales (Previous 1.2%) are remarkable event to follow.
• In the U.S. House Price Index (Previous -0.6%) is released at 14:00 GMT.

On Friday (Oct 24th) have the following events to watch:

• In Germany, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 47.4) is an important event to watch.
• In the Euro zone, manufacturing PMI (Previous 45.0) is released at 08:00 GMT.
• In the U.K. GDP (Previous 0.0%) is scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
• In Canada, CPI (Previous -0.2%) and Core CPI (Previous 0.3%) are not to be missed.
• In the U.S. Existing Home Sales (Previous 4.91M) is a notable event to monitor.

Published on  Fri, Oct 17 2008, 14:31 GMT