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Weekly Market View

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Turbulent Times

Fri, Oct 3 2008, 14:51 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The NFP came out much worse than expected on Friday, (Oct 3rd : Actual -159 K vs Forecast -85 K) while U.S. unemployment rate reminded at 6.1 % the worst last 5 years. Ahead of the vote for the Bailout plan, the market reactions seemed limited. Well, the U.S. Job data might have been “not so bad” as some analysts expected. we have been seeing these turbulent times that we have never experienced before. Fannie Mae,Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual.

These big names have either gone to ruin entirely, or discontinued to exist as independent firms.

The bailout plan was be passed in the Senate. We are now waiting for a decision of the lower House (at 12:30 GMT Oct 3rd). We keep an eye open to any economic news coming.

On schedule for the next week, we have many significant events to follow. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Oct 5th) we have the following events to watch:

• There is no signification event on Sunday.

On Monday (Oct 6th) we have the following events to watch:

• In the U.K. NIESR GDP Estimate (Previous -0.2 %) is an event to follow. This report that comes out a month before the official announce is highly reliable and can influence the UK monetary policy.
• In Canada, Building Permits (Previous 1.8 %) and Ivey PMI ( Previous 51.5) are events to follow. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
• In NZIER Business Confidence (Previous -64) is an event to follow. Be aware NZD/USD traders.

On Tuesday (Oct 7th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with following events

• In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current 0.50 %) is to be taken into account. Please keep eyes open for how the BoJ considers the economic situation.
• In Australia, the RBA Interest Rate Announcement (Current 7.00 %) is scheduled at 03:30 GMT. Be aware AUD/USD traders.
• In the U.K. Industrial Production (Previous -0.4 %) is a notable event to watch.
• In the Euro zone, the President of the ECB Trichet's tentative speech is scheduled. Let's see if there is any sign of progress being made.
• In Germany, Factory Orders ( Previous -1.7 % ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
• In the U.S. The Fed Chairman Bernanke will have a press conference at 16:00. Later on at 18:00 GMT, FOMC Meeting Minutes are released. Please keep your eyes open for it. The content of the meeting may generate high volatility for the USD against the major currencies.
• In the U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 52) is an important event to take into account.
• In Australia, Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Previous 7.0%) is released at 23:30 GMT.

On Wednesday (Oct 8th) we have the following events to watch:

• In the UK,BRC Shop Price Index (Previous 3.8%) and Leading Index (Previous -0.7%) are events to follow.
• In Germany, Industrial Production (Previous -1.8 %) is an event to monitor.
• In U.S Pending Home Sales (Previous -3.2%) should be taken into account.

On Thursday (Oct 9th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

• In Australia, Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.4% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
• In Germany, Trade Balance (Previous 11.8B) is remarkable event to watch.
• In Euro zone, Monthly Bulletin is released at 08:00 GMT.
• In the UK, Trade Balance (Previous 11.1B) and the MPC Rate Statement (Current 5.00%) are remarkable events to follow.
• In Japan, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released at 23:50 GMT.

On Friday (Oct 10th) we have the following events to watch:

• In Australia, NAB Business Confidence (Previous -7) is to be taken into account.
• In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate (Previous 2.5 %) is an event to follow.
• In Canada, Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1 %) and Trade Balance (Previous 4.9 B) are remarkable events to follow. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
• In the US, Trade Balance (Previous -62.2 B) and Import Price Index (Previous -3.7 %) are notable events to watch.

Published on  Fri, Oct 3 2008, 14:57 GMT