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Weekly Market View

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Marked Wariness Among The Global Financial Market.

Fri, Sep 26 2008, 13:34 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The working out of the Bailout Plan has proved to be a difficult process. In addition, the collapse of the Washington Mutual Inc., one of the biggest thrift banks in the US, has driven up the marked wariness. The gradual decline of the greenback could go further until the plan gets enough support to pass.

Although the market has been waffling behind the uncertainty no matter what economic data comes out, we should keep paying extra attention to the economic events. On schedule we have significant events such as the ECB interest rate decision, ISM manufacturing, ISM Non Manufacturing, and “the Big Non-Farm payrolls” Alright. Let's keep it up!.

On Sunday (Sept 28th) we have the following events to watch:

• In New Zealand. Trade Balance (Previous -781 M) is released at 21:45 GMT.
• In Japan, Retail Sales (Previous 2.0%) is an event to follow.
  

On Monday (Sept 29th) Lobar Day in the U.S.

• In the Euro zone, Consumer Confidence (Previous -19) is released at 09:00 GMT.
• In the U.S. Core PCE (Previous 0.3%), Personal Spending (Previous 0.2%) and Personal Income (Previous -0.7%) are important events to watch,
• In the U.K. Mortgage Approval (Previous 33 K) and GfK Consumer Confidence (Previous -36) are to be taken into account.
• In Japan, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 46.9), Household Spending (Previous -0.5%) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.0%) are important events to consider.

On Tuesday (Sept 30th) we have the following events to watch:

• In Australia, Retail Trend (Previous 0.1%) is released at 00:30 GMT.
• In New Zealand, Business Confidence (Previous -20.5) is scheduled at 02:00 GMT.
• In Germany, Retail Sales (Previous -1.5%) and Unemployment Change (Previous -40 K) are notable events to take into account.
• In the U.K. Current Account (Previous -8.4 B) and Gross Domestic Product (Previous 0.0 %) are events to watch.
• In the Euro zone, CPI (Previous 3.8%) is released at 09:00 GMT. Later on, the president of the ECB Trichet's speech is scheduled at 16:00 GMT.
• In Canada, Gross Domestic Product (Previous 0.1%) is released at 12:30 GMT.
• In the U.S. Chicago PMI (Previous 57.9) and Consumer Confidence (Previous 56.9) are events to monitor.
• In Australia, AIG Manufacturing Index (Previous 47.0) is released at 23:30 GMT.
• In Japan, Tankan Manufacturing Index (Previous 5) and Non-Manufacturing Index (previous 10) are scheduled at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday (Oct 1st) we have the following events to watch:

• In Australia, Commodity Price Index (Previous 45.2%) is released at 06:30 GMT.
• In Switzerland, SVME PMI (Previous 52.5) is released at 07:30 GMT.
• In the Euro zone, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 45.3) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.3 %) are notable events to watch.
• In the U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Previous 45.9) is scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
• In the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Previous -33 K9 and ISM Manufacturing Index (Previous 49.9) are remarkable events to watch.The data considered as an early indicator for the non farm payrolls is big events that are expected to generate moderate volatility for the USD against the other majors.

On Thursday (Oct 2nd) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

• In Australia, Trade Balance (Previous -0.72 B) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
• In Switzerland, the SNB Monetary Policy Report is released at 09:00 GMT.
• In Euro-Zone, the ECB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 4.25%) is scheduled at 11:45 GMT.
• The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rates at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the current economic situation in the Euro zone and the recent value of the EUR.
• In the U.S. Factory Orders (Previous 1.3 %) is released at 14.00 GMT.

On Friday (Oct 3rd) we have the biggest day of the week with following events

• In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index (Previous -0.3 %) is released at 05:45 GMT.
• In the Euro zone, Retail Sales (Previous -0.4%) is an event to follow.
• In the US, the Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1 %), Non-Farm Payrolls (the NFP. Previous -84K), the Average Hourly Earnings (Previous 0.4 %) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to generate excessive volatility for the USD against the other majors. All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.
• Latter on at 14:00 GMT, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Previous 50.6) is to be taken into account.

Published on  Fri, Sep 26 2008, 14:38 GMT