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Weekly Market View

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The Mighty Swell Of Changing Times

Fri, Sep 12 2008, 11:32 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have seen how the fundamentals changed the overall market sentiment and direction, and have found ourselves in the mighty swell of changing time, haven't we? The collapses of the EUR and the GBP, especially the GBP. There is a flurry of speculation that the U.K. economy would head into a deep recession. Unwinding JPY carry trade has gotten into full swing. Might be the GBP/JPY would not recover as easy as some of us wish. Rather, simply selling off the GBP would be an easy way to make profits with paying attention to some pull-backs.

The week has several important events. On schedule we have CPIs from the major countries, U.K. Retail sales, the meeting minutes of the BoE, and the rate announcements from the Fed, the BoJ and the SNB. Okay! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Sept 14th) we have the following events to watch:

• In New Zealand, Manufacturing Sales (Previous 3.7%) is released at 22:45 GMT.
• There is no further events on Sunday.

On Monday (Sept 15th) we have the following events to watch:

• In Switzerland, Retail Sales is released at 07:15 GMT.
• In the Euro zone, CPI (Previous 3.3%) and Core CPI (Previous 1.6%) are notable events to follow.
• In the U.S. Empire Sate Business Condition Index (Previous -3.2) and Capacity Utilization are important events to monitor.

On Tuesday (Sept 16th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

• In Australia, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes of the last meeting is released at 01:30 GMT. We carefully watch the content of the meeting.
• In Japan, Household Confidence (Previous 31.4) is event to monitor.
• In Germany, CPIs and ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -55.5) are notable events to watch.
• In the UK, CPIs and BoE Inflation Letter are remarkable events to follow.
• In the Euro zone, CPIs and ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -55.7) are scheduled at 09:00 GMT.
• In the U.S. CPIs and TIC (53.4 B) are remarkable events to watch. Later on the Fed Interest Rate Decision (Current 2.00 %) is announced at 18:15 GMT. These events may generate a good deal of volatility for the USD against the other majors.

On Wednesday (Sept 17th) we have the following events to watch:

• In Australia, WMI Leading Index (Previous 0.1 %) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
• In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current 0.50 %) is an event to follow. Also , the BoJ governor Shirakawa will have a press conference after the rate release. Please keep an eye open for how the BoJ considers the current economic situation.
• In the UK, the BoE Minutes of the last meeting and Unemployment Rate are released at 8:30 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the BoE has. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the GBP against the major currencies.
• In the Euro Zone, Trade Balance is released at 09:00 GMT.
• In the U.S. Building Permit, Current Account (Previous -176 B), and Housing Start are events to be taken into account.
• In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Previous -0.8%) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Thursday (Sept 18th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

• In Japan, the BoJ governor Shirakawa will have a press conference. B aware of JPY traders.
• In Switzerland, Trade Balance is released at 06:15 GMT.
• In the UK, Retail Sales is a notable event to watch. This event is expected to generate a good deal of volatility.
• In Switzerland, SNB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 2.75 %) is scheduled at 12:00 GMT.
• In Canada, Leading Indicators (Previous 0.0 %) is an event to monitor.
• In the US, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Previous -12.7) is a remarkable event to monitor.
• In New Zealand, Current Account (Previous -2.2 B) is released at 22:45 GMT.

On Friday (Sept 19th) we have the following events to watch:

• In Germany, Producer Price Index and Import Price Index are events to watch.
• There is no further events on Friday.

Published on  Fri, Sep 12 2008, 11:34 GMT