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Weekly Market View

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Keep your eyes open for the Fed interest rate decision and the big Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, Apr 25 2008, 10:51 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We might have had experienced intense excitement when the EUR/USD established a fresh record high above the 1.6000 line ( record at 1.6019 ). After hitting the record, the EUR/USD started to show a corrective move ( current at the 1.5600 region, 9:36 GMT Friday 25 April ).

This week does have explosive events. On schedule, we have the central banks' interest rate decisions ( the BoJ and the Fed), German retail sales, U.S. Core PCE, ISM maufacturing and the big NFP. We should pay extra attention to the Fed’s decision, whether they cut rates by 25bp, as the markets expect, or keep them unchanged ( Current: 2.25% ). Right! Let´s review them all.

On Sunday ( Apr 27th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Retail Sales ( Previous 3.2% ) and Large Retailers´ Sales ( Previous 1.2% ) are scheduled at 23:50 GMT.

On Monday ( Apr 28th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Consumer Confidence is released at 06:00 GMT.
In New Zealand, Trade Balance ( Previous 0.26B ) is released at 22:45 GMT. Be aware NZD traders.
In the Eurozone, Economic Growth Forecasts is released at 09:45 GMT. There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Apr 29th ) we have the biggest day of the week witht the following events:

In the UK, CBI Distributive Trades Realized ( Previous 1 ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In Japan, Overall Household Spending ( Previous 0 ), Unemployment Rate ( Previous 3.9% ), and Industrial Production ( Previous 1.6% ) are events to follow.

On Wednesday ( Apr 30th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 0.50% ) is a notable event to watch. The governor Shirakawa will have a press conference after the release of interest rate. We should keep eyes open on how the BoJ considers the recent value of the JPY against the USD.
In New Zealand, Business Conference ( Previous -57.9 ) is an event to follow. Be aware NZD traders.
In Germany, Retail Sales ( Previous -1.6% ) and Unemployment Rate ( Previous 7.4% ) are notable events to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, both Consumer Confidence ( Previous -12 ) and Unemployment Rate ( Previous 7.1% ) are scheduled at 09:00 GMT.
In Switzerland, Leading Index ( Previous 1.89B ) is scheduled at 09:30 GMT.
In the UK, Consumer Confidence ( Previous -19 ) is a notable event to watch.
In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change ( Previous 8K ) and GDP Annualized ( Previous 2.4% ) are scheduled at 12:15 GMT and at 12:30 GMT respectively. Also Chicogo PMI ( Previous 48.6 ) is remarkable event to monitor. Later on, the Fed Interest Rate Decision ( Current 2.25% ) is announced at 18:15 GMT. We should keep eyes open on what action the Fed takes.

On Thursday ( May 1st ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 51.3 ) is an important event to watach.
In the US, Personal Spending ( Previous 0.1% ), Personal Income ( Previous 0.5% ), Core PCE ( Previous 0.1% ), and ISM Manufacturing Index ( Previous 48.6 ) are remarkable events of this week. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies.

On Friday ( May 2nd ) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events

In Australia, Retail Sales ( Previous -0.1% ) is an event to follow. Be aware AUD traders.
In Switzerland, SVME PMI ( Previous 55.3 ) is released at 07:30 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Manufacturing PMI is scheduled at 08:00 GMT.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.1% ) , Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP, Previous -80K ), the Average Hourly Earnings ( Previous 0.3% ) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to have a big impact on the USD against the other Majors.All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.
Later on at 14:00 GMT, Factory Orders ( Previous -1.3% ) is a notable event to watch.

Published on  Fri, Apr 25 2008, 11:01 GMT