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Weekly Market View

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Historically low interest rates to boost economic recovery

Mon, Jan 12 2009, 09:16 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

The week we leave behind has reminded us the negative economic moment we are going through, a situation with complicated solutions, we have seen some example this week, namely in England with the BoE cutting interest rates once again, to 1.5% this time, the lowest Bank Rate since the bank started to set monetary policy in 1694.

In the Euro Area economy continues looking gloomier and gloomier, with unemployment figures rising at a fast pace and industrial production declining as fast. Germany, the main economy in the Euro area has seen evidence of the decline of its Industrial sector, manufacturing production declines continuously, and factory orders have weakened to historically low levels.

The situation in the U.S. does not show any considerable improvement. The FOMC minutes have described the current situation in rather negative terms, and the employment report this week has confirmed the worst expectations, 2008 has closed with a loss of 2.3 million jobs in the U.S., the wo4rst number since 1945.

next week we have several important indicators, focus will be, mainly in the ECB's monetary policy decision on Thursday, the bank lending key rate in the Euro Area is now at 2.5% and rumour has that the ECB could follow the BoE and trim rates by some 50 b.p. in yet another attempt to kick start economy.

U.S. retail sales will be published on Wednesday, an important indicator to assess the impact of the whole economic downturn upon consumption

Monday January 12th

15:30 Canada Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey - December
23:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis - November (Previous: ¥1113.2B)
23:50 Japan Adjusted Current Account - November (Previous: ¥145B)

Tuesday January 13th

00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor - All - December (Previous: -2.6%)
09:30 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance - November (Previous: -£7.8B)
09:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance - November (Previous: -£3.9B)
13:00 United States Bernanke speaks at London School of Economics
13:30 Canada International Merchandise Trade - December (Previous: $3.78B)
13:30 United States Trade Balance - November (Previous: -$57.1B)
21:45 New Zealand Building Permits - November (Previous: -21.9%)

Wednesday January 14th

10:00 European Monetary Union Industrial Production w.d.a. - November (Previous: -5.3% y/y)
13:30 United States Import Price Index - December (Previous: -6.7% m/m; 4.4% y/y)
13:30 United States Retail Sales - December (Previous: -1.8% m/m; Ex Autos -1.6%)
19:00 United States Fed's Beige Book
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders - November (Previous: -4.4%)

Thursday January 15th

00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate - December - (Previous: 4.4%)
07:00 Germany Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -0.5% m/m; 1.4% y/y)
09:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -0.5% m/m; 2.1% y/y)
12:45 European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 2.5%)
13:30 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech
13:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - December (Previous: -25.76)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index - December (Previous: -2.2% m/m; 0.4% y/y)
15:00 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - January (Previous: -32.9%)

Friday January 16th

00:30 Japan BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
08:15 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices - December (Previous: -1.4% m/m; 1.1% y/y)
10:00 European Monetary Union Trade Balance n.s.a. - November (Previous: €0.9B)
13:30 United States Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -1.7% m/m; core CPI: 0.0% m/m; 2.0% y/y)
14:00 United States Net Long-term TIC Flows - November (Previous: $1.5B)
14:15 United States Industrial Production - December (Previous: -0.6% m/m)
15:00 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary - January (Previous: 60.1)

Published on Mon, Jan 12 2009, 09:16 GMT

Historically low interest rates to boost economic recovery

Fri, Jan 9 2009, 15:41 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

The week we leave behind has reminded us the negative economiic moment we are goingh through, a situation with complicated solutions, we have seen some exampler this week, namely in England ith the Boe cuttin interest rates once again, to 1.5% this time, the lowest Bank Rate since the bank started to set monetary policy in 1694.

In the Euro Area economy continues looking gloomier and gloomier, with unemployment figures rising at a fast pace and industrial production declining as fast. germany, the main economy in the Euro aresa has seen evidence of the decline of its Industrial sector, manufacturing production flass continuously, and factory orders have weakened to historically low levels.

The situation in the U.S. does not show any considerable improvement. The FOMC minutes have described the current situationin rather negative terms, and the employment report this week has confirmed the worst expectations, 2008 has closed with a loss of 2.3 million jobs in the U.S., the wo4rst number since 1945.

next week we have several important indicators, focus will be, mainly in the ECB's monetary policy decision on thursday, the bank lending key rate in the Euro Area is now at 2.5% and rumosr has that the ECB could follow the BoE and trim rates by some 50 b.p. in yet another attempt to kick start economy.

U.S. retail sales will be published on wednesday, an impotrtant indicator to assess the impact of the whole economic downturn upon consumption.

Monday January 12th

00:01 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate - December (Previous: -1)
23:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis - November (Previous: ¥1113.2B)
23:50 Japan Adjusted Current Account - November (Previous: ¥145B)

Tuesday January 13th

00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor - All - December (Previous: -2.6%)
09:30 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance - November (Previous: -£7.8B)
09:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance - November (Previous: -£3.9B)
13:00 United States Bernanke speaks at London School of Economics
13:30 Canada International Merchandise Trade - December (Previous: $3.78B)
13:30 United States Trade Balance - November (Previous: -$57.1B)
21:45 New Zealand Building Permits - November (Previous: -21.9%)

Wednesday January 14th

10:00 European Monetary Union Industrial Production w.d.a. - November (Previous: -5.3% y/y)
13:30 United States Import Price Index - December (Previous: -6.7% m/m; 4.4% y/y)
13:30 United States Retail Sales - December (Previous: -1.8% m/m; Ex Autos -1.6%)
19:00 United States Fed's Beige Book
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders - November (Previous: -4.4%)

Thursday January 15th

00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate - December - (Previous: 4.4%)
07:00 Germany Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -0.5% m/m; 1.4% y/y)
09:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -0.5% m/m; 2.1% y/y)
12:45 European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 2.5%)
13:30 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech
13:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - December (Previous: -25.76)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index - December (Previous: -2.2% m/m; 0.4% y/y)
15:00 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - January (Previous: -32.9%)

Friday January 16th

00:30 Japan BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
08:15 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices - December (Previous: -1.4% m/m; 1.1% y/y)
10:00 European Monetary Union Trade Balance n.s.a. - November (Previous: €0.9B)
13:30 United States Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -1.7% m/m; core CPI: 0.0% m/m; 2.0% y/y)
14:00 United States Net Long-term TIC Flows - November (Previous: $1.5B)
14:15 United States Industrial Production - December (Previous: -0.6% m/m)
15:00 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary - January (Previous: 60.1)

Published on Fri, Jan 9 2009, 15:41 GMT

Central Banks rushing to 0% interest rates

Mon, Dec 22 2008, 09:27 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

The week we leave behind we have seen Central Banks rushing towards the zero percent interest rate monetary policy. First to move was the Fed slashing interest rates by 75 basis points to 0.25%, a move that weighed the Dollar; the Euro Dollar rallied to 1.4720, the highest level since late September, while against the Yen, the Dollar dropped to the lowest levels in the last ten years.

The Bank of Japan was next and they agreed on Friday a 20 basis points rate cut to 0,10%, but the rate cut did not have the expected reaction on the Yen, which continues trading at historically high levels against the Dollar, around 89.0.

Next week will be somewhat shorter, because of the Christmas Days but there are some events to take in account, let´s have a look t them.

Sunday December 21

21:45 New Zealand Current Account - 3Q (Previous: -3.91B)

Monday December 22

05:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey
21:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Ptrevious: -0.2%)

Tuesday December 23

01:00 New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence - 4Q (Previous: 104.8)
09:00 European Monetary Union Current Account n.s.a - October (Previous: -6B; s.a: -10.6B)
09:30 United Kingdom Current Account - 3Q (Previous: -11B)
09:30 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Previous: 0%)
13:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized - 3Q (Previous: 2.8%)
13:30 United States Personal Consumption - 3Q (Previous: 2.1%)
15:00 United States Existing Home Sales - November (Previous: 4.98M)
15:00 United States New Home Sales - November (Previous: 433K)
15:00 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - December (Previous: 55.3)
15:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - December (Previous: -38)
23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance - November (Previous: 175.6B)

Wednesday December 24

13:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index _ november (Previous: 0% m/m; 2.1% y/y)
13:30 United States Durable Goods Orders - November (Previous: -6.2%; ex-transportation -4.4%)
13:30 United States Personal Income - November (Previous: 0.3%)
13:30 United States Personal Spending - November (Previous: -1%)
23:50 Japan BoJ Minutes

Thursday December 25

23:30 Japan Jobless Rate - November (Previous: 3.7%)
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: 1.7% y/y; ex-food & energy 0.2%)
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: 1.1% y/y; ex-food & energy 0.2%)
23:50 Japan Retail Trade s.a - November (Previous: -0.6% y/y; ex-food & energy -0.6%)

Published on Mon, Dec 22 2008, 09:27 GMT

Central Banks rushing to 0% interest rates

Fri, Dec 19 2008, 16:42 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

21:45 New Zealand Current Account - 3Q (Previous: -3.91B)

Monday December 22

05:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey
21:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Ptrevious: -0.2%)

Tuesday December 23

01:00 New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence - 4Q (Previous: 104.8)
09:00 European Monetary Union Current Account n.s.a - October (Previous: -6B; s.a: -10.6B)
09:30 United Kingdom Current Account - 3Q (Previous: -11B)
09:30 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Previous: 0%)
13:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized - 3Q (Previous: 2.8%)
13:30 United States Personal Consumption - 3Q (Previous: 2.1%)
15:00 United States Existing Home Sales - November (Previous: 4.98M)
15:00 United States New Home Sales - November (Previous: 433K)
15:00 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - December (Previous: 55.3)
15:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - December (Previous: -38)
23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance - November (Previous: 175.6B)

Wednesday December 24

13:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index _ november (Previous: 0% m/m; 2.1% y/y)
13:30 United States Durable Goods Orders - November (Previous: -6.2%; ex-transportation -4.4%)
13:30 United States Personal Income - November (Previous: 0.3%)
13:30 United States Personal Spending - November (Previous: -1%)
23:50 Japan BoJ Minutes

Thursday December 25

23:30 Japan Jobless Rate - November (Previous: 3.7%)
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: 1.7% y/y; ex-food & energy 0.2%)
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: 1.1% y/y; ex-food & energy 0.2%)
23:50 Japan Retail Trade s.a - November (Previous: -0.6% y/y; ex-food & energy -0.6%)

Published on Fri, Dec 19 2008, 16:42 GMT

Auto bailout fails, stock indexes drop

Mon, Dec 15 2008, 09:06 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

The week we leave behind we have seen the automotive bailout plan failing, the market expected an agreement on a financial lifeline to the three biggest car manufacturer.. Stock markets have reacted negatively to the news with auto makers being the biggest losers.

On the currencies side, the Yen has strengthened, specially against the Dollar, reaching a 13 year high, the yYn is too strong at the moment for Japanese exports, thus, we can expect some action by the Bank of japan to try to revert the current situation.

The Dollar has lost weight against most currencies, not only against the Yen; Euro Dollar has rallied to a 7-week high and the USD/CHF has continued to the downside despite the libor rate cut approved by the Swiss National Bank.

Next week we have some interesting events on focus, especially interest rate decisions by the Fed and the Bank of Japan, let's take a look at them:

Sunday December 14

23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index - 4Q (Previous: -3)
23:50 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index - 4Q (Previous: 1)

Monday December 15

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index - December (Previous: -2.9 m/m; -7.1% y/y);
08:15 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices - November (Previous: -0.6 m/m; -2.9% y/y)
13:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - December (Previous: -25.43)
14:00 United States Net Long-term TIC Flows - October (Previous: $66.2B)
14:15 United States Industrial Production - November (Previous: 1.3%)
17:30 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech

Tuesday December 16

00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes - December
09:30 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: -0.2 m/m; 4.5% y/y; Core: 1.9% y/y);
n/a United Kingdom BoE Inflation Letter
11:00 European Monetary Union Employment Change - 3Q (Previous: 0.2% Q/Q; 1.2 Y/Y)
13:30 United States Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: -1% m/m; 3.7% y/y; Core: 2.2% y/y);
13:30 United States Housing Starts - November (Previous: 0.791M Annual rate)
19:15 United States Fed Interest Rate Decision (Current: 1%)

Wednesday December 17

07:00 Germany Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: -0.2% m/m; 2.4% y/y)
08:30 Germany Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - December (Previous: 35.7)
08:30 Germany Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index Services - December (Previous: 45.1)
08:30 Euro Zone Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - December (Previous: 35.6)
08:30 Euro Zone Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - December (Previous: 45.1)
09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes
09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) - October (Previous: 5.8%)
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: 0 m/m; 2.1% y/y; Core: 1.9% y/y)
13:30 United States Current Account - 3Q (Previous: -$183.1B)

Thursday December 18

07:15 Switzerland Trade Balance - November (Previous: 1.84B)
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate - December (Previous: 85.8)
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales November (Previous: -0.1% m/m; 1.9% y/y)
10:00 European Monetary Union Trade Balance n.s.a. - October (Previous: -€5.6B)
13:30 Canada Leading Indicators - November (Previous: 0.4%)
15:00 United States Leading Indicators November (Previous: -0.8%)
15:00 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - December (Previous: -39.3)
23:50 Japan All Industry Activity Index - October (Previous: -0.1)

Friday December 12

n/a United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence - December (Previous -35)
n/a Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current: 0.3%)
n/a Japan BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
07:00 Germany Producer Price Index - November (Previous: 0% m/m; 7.8% y/y)
12:00 Canada Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: -1% m/m; 2.6% y/y; Core: 1.7% y/y)

Published on Mon, Dec 15 2008, 09:06 GMT

Auto bailout fails, stock indexes drop

Fri, Dec 12 2008, 16:07 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

The week we leave behind has we have seen the automotve bailoutplan failing agaist the market expectations of an aggreement. Stock markets have reactd down to the news weighed by auto makers.

On the currencies side, the Yen has strengthenes, specially agaunst the Diollar, reaching a 13 year high, the yen is too strong at the moment for japanese exports, thus we can expect some action by the Bank of japan to try to revert the curren situation.

The Dollar has lost weight agaist most currencies, npott only against the Yen; Euro Dollar has rallied to a 7-week high and the USD/CHF has continued to the downside despite the libior rate cut approved by the Swiss national Bank.

Next week we have some interesting events on focus, especially interest rate decissions by the Fed and the bank of Japan, let's take a look at them:

Sunday December 14

23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index - 4Q (Previous: -3)
23:50 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index - 4Q (Previous: 1)

Monday December 15

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index - December (Previous: -2.9 m/m; -7.1% y/y);
08:15 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices - November (Previous: -0.6 m/m; -2.9% y/y)
13:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - December (Previous: -25.43)
14:00 United States Net Long-term TIC Flows - October (Previous: $66.2B)
14:15 United States Industrial Production - November (Previous: 1.3%)
17:30 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech

Tuesday December 16

00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes - December
09:30 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: -0.2 m/m; 4.5% y/y; Core: 1.9% y/y);
n/a United Kingdom BoE Inflation Letter
11:00 European Monetary Union Employment Change - 3Q (Previous: 0.2% Q/Q; 1.2 Y/Y)
13:30 United States Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: -1% m/m; 3.7% y/y; Core: 2.2% y/y);
13:30 United States Housing Starts - November (Previous: 0.791M Annual rate)
19:15 United States Fed Interest Rate Decision (Current: 1%)

Wednesday December 17

07:00 Germany Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: -0.2% m/m; 2.4% y/y)
08:30 Germany Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - December (Previous: 35.7)
08:30 Germany Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index Services - December (Previous: 45.1)
08:30 Euro Zone Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - December (Previous: 35.6)
08:30 Euro Zone Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - December (Previous: 45.1)
09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes
09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) - October (Previous: 5.8%)
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: 0 m/m; 2.1% y/y; Core: 1.9% y/y)
13:30 United States Current Account - 3Q (Previous: -$183.1B)

Thursday December 18

07:15 Switzerland Trade Balance - November (Previous: 1.84B)
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate - December (Previous: 85.8)
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales November (Previous: -0.1% m/m; 1.9% y/y)
10:00 European Monetary Union Trade Balance n.s.a. - October (Previous: -€5.6B)
13:30 Canada Leading Indicators - November (Previous: 0.4%)
15:00 United States Leading Indicators November (Previous: -0.8%)
15:00 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - December (Previous: -39.3)
23:50 Japan All Industry Activity Index - October (Previous: -0.1)

Friday December 12

n/a United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence - December (Previous -35)
n/a Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current: 0.3%)
n/a Japan BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
07:00 Germany Producer Price Index - November (Previous: 0% m/m; 7.8% y/y)
12:00 Canada Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: -1% m/m; 2.6% y/y; Core: 1.7% y/y)

Published on Fri, Dec 12 2008, 16:07 GMT

Rate cuts approved might be not enough

Mon, Dec 8 2008, 11:36 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

The week we leave behind we have seen historic movements, starting for the ECB and BoE's interest rate decisions, the Bank of England has slashed its Bank Rate by 100 basis points to 2%. Interest rate have never been lower than 2% since the Bank was created in 1694, the last time rates were this low was in 1939. European Central Bank has cut its Repo Rate by 75 basis points, instead of the 50 bp expected, to 2.5%.

Interest rate cuts have not been enough to restore confidence in the markets and currencies continued in the tren they were, Dollar and Yen, as safe havens have continued strengthening while The Pound reaches the lowest levels in years against all majors.

To end the week US non-farm payrolls have posted a huge slump in November, -533K instead of the -320 expected, well above a million of workers have lost the jobs in the last three months in the United States, a clear signal that the US is entering a deep and long recession period. In order to boost fast deteriorating economy, the Federal Reserve could approve another rate cut and leave interest rates at the lowest levels in the last 50 years. Interesting times ahead.

Next week we have got several important events to check out:

Sunday December 7

23:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis - October (Previous: ¥247.1B)

Monday December 8

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - November - Input (Previous: -5.6% m/m; 13.8% y/y); Output (Previous: -1% m/m; 6.8% y/y)
11:00 Germany Industrial Production - October (Previous: -3.6% m/m; -2.1% y/y)
13:00 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech
13:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a - November (Previous: 211.8k)
23:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized - 3Q (Previous: -3%)

Tuesday December 9

00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor - November (Previous: -2.2%)
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance - November (Previous: -82%)
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index - October (Previous: 89.4)
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate - November (Previous: 2.5%)
07:00 Germany Trade Balance - October (Previous: 15B)
09:30 United Kingdom Trade Balance - November (Previous: -7.5 Bill.)
10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment - December (Previous: -53)
14:00 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision (Actual: 2.25)
15:00 United States Pending Home Sales - October (Previous: -4.6%)
23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence - December (Previous: 4.3%)
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders - October (Previous: 5.5%)

Wednesday December 10

00:30 Australia Home Loans - October (Previous: -2.7%)
10:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey - Expectations - December (Previous: -88.5)

Thursday December 11

00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate - November (Previous: 4.3%)
08:05 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech
08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Current: 1%)
09:00 European Monetary Union ECB Monthly Report
13:30 United States Trade Balance - October (Previous: -$56.47B)
13:30 United States Import Price Index - November (Previous: -4.7% m/m; 6.7% y/y)
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index - October (Previous: 2.1% y/y)
21:45 New Zealand Retail Sales - October (Previous: 0.1%; Ex-autos: -0.5%)

Friday December 12

04:30 Japan Industrial Production - October (Previous: 1.1% m/m% 0.2% y/y)
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence - November (Previous: 29.8)
10:00 European Monetary Union Industrial Production s.a. - October (Previous: -1.6% m/m; -2.4% y/y)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index - November (Previous: 5.2 y/y; core: 4.4 y/y)
13:30 United States Retail Sales - November ( Previous: -2.8%; ex autos: -2.2%)
15:00 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - December (Previous: 55.3)

Published on Mon, Dec 8 2008, 11:36 GMT

Rate cuts approved might be not enough

Fri, Dec 5 2008, 14:42 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

Sunday December 7

23:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis - October (Previous: ¥247.1B)

Monday December 8

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - November - Input (Previous: -5.6% m/m; 13.8% y/y); Output (Previous: -1% m/m; 6.8% y/y)
11:00 Germany Industrial Production - October (Previous: -3.6% m/m; -2.1% y/y)
13:00 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech
13:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a - November (Previous: 211.8k)
23:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized - 3Q (Previous: -3%)

Tuesday December 9

00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor - November (Previous: -2.2%)
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance - November (Previous: -82%)
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index - October (Previous: 89.4)
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate - November (Previous: 2.5%)
07:00 Germany Trade Balance - October (Previous: 15B)
09:30 United Kingdom Trade Balance - November (Previous: -7.5 Bill.)
10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment - December (Previous: -53)
14:00 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision (Actual: 2.25)
15:00 United States Pending Home Sales - October (Previous: -4.6%)
23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence - December (Previous: 4.3%)
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders - October (Previous: 5.5%)

Wednesday December 10

00:30 Australia Home Loans - October (Previous: -2.7%)
10:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey - Expectations - December (Previous: -88.5)

Thursday December 11

00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate - November (Previous: 4.3%)
08:05 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech
08:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision (Current: 1%)
09:00 European Monetary Union ECB Monthly Report
13:30 United States Trade Balance - October (Previous: -$56.47B)
13:30 United States Import Price Index - November (Previous: -4.7% m/m; 6.7% y/y)
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index - October (Previous: 2.1% y/y)
21:45 New Zealand Retail Sales - October (Previous: 0.1%; Ex-autos: -0.5%)

Friday December 12

04:30 Japan Industrial Production - October (Previous: 1.1% m/m% 0.2% y/y)
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence - November (Previous: 29.8)
10:00 European Monetary Union Industrial Production s.a. - October (Previous: -1.6% m/m; -2.4% y/y)
13:30 United States Producer Price Index - November (Previous: 5.2 y/y; core: 4.4 y/y)
13:30 United States Retail Sales - November ( Previous: -2.8%; ex autos: -2.2%)
15:00 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - December (Previous: 55.3)

Published on Fri, Dec 5 2008, 14:42 GMT

Further rate cuts expected in Europe

Mon, Dec 1 2008, 08:28 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

This week has been one of the most positive weeks for stock markets which have gone through consecutive sessions of gains following Citigroup's bail out, which has given confidence to investors to think that despite the grim outlook for next year, government aid will help to soften the consequences of the crisis.

Next week we have important events scheduled, specially interest rate decisions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, The ECB is expected to slash interest rates by 50 basis points, while the Bank of England will probably approve a 75 basis points rate cut, aiming to boost their economies, once inflation levels have declined sharply in the last months.

Furthermore, next week the Fed will publish its Beige Book and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its monetary policy decision. And as every first Friday of the month, the U.S. Labor Department will publish the Non-Farm payrolls report.

These are next weeks' most important events:

Monday December 1

08:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index - Oct (Previous: 47)
08:55 Germany Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - Nov (Previous: 42.9)
09:00 European Monetary Union Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - Nov (Previous: 41.1)
09:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply - Oct (Previous: 1.5% m/m; 12.4% y/y)
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - Nov (Previous: 41.5)
13:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product - Oct (Previoyus: -0.3% m/m)
15:00 United States ISM Manufacturing -Nov (Previous: 38.9)
18:30 United States Fed's Bernanke Speech

Tuesday December 2

00:30 Australia Current Account Balance - 3Q (Previous: -12774M)
00:30 Australia Retail Sales - Oct (Previous: 0.2%; ex inflation: -1.1%)
03:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 5.25%)
06:45 Switzerland Consumer Price Index - Oct (Previous: 0.5% m/m; 2.6% a/a)

Wednesday December 3

00:01 United Kingdom Nationwide Consumer Confidence - Nov (Previous: 55)
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Previous: 0.3% q/q; 2.7% y/y)
08:55 Germany Purchasing Manager Index Services - Nov (Previous: 48.3)
09:00 European Monetary Union Purchasing Manager Index Services - Nov (Previous: 45.8)
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services - Nov (Previous: 42.4)
10:00 European Monetary Union Retail Sales - Nov (Previous: -0.2% m/m; -1.6% y/y)
10:30 United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index - Nov (Previous: 3% y/y)
13:15 United States ADP Employment Change - Nov (Previous: -157K)
13:30 United States Nonfarm Productivity - 3Q (Previous: 4.3%)
15:00 United States ISM Non-Manufacturing - Nov (Previous: 44.4)
19:00 United States Fed's Beige Book
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 6.5%)

Thursday December 4

00:30 Australia Trade Balance - Oct (Previous: 1.46B)
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product - Oct (Previous: 0.3% m/m% 2.3% y/y)
10:00 European Monetary Union Revised Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) - 3Q (Previous: -0.2%)
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 3%)
12:45 European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 3.25%)
15:00 United States Factory Orders - Oct (Previous: -2.5%)
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index - Nov (52.2)

Friday December 5

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. - Oct (Previous: -8% m/m; -2.7% y/y)
12:00 Canada Unemployment Rate - Nov (Previous: 6.2%)
13:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls - Nov (Previous: -240K)
13:30 United States Unemployment Rate - Nov (Previous: 6.5%)

Published on Mon, Dec 1 2008, 08:28 GMT

Further rate cuts expected in Europe

Fri, Nov 28 2008, 15:16 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

Monday December 1

08:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index - Oct (Previous: 47)
08:55 Germany Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - Nov (Previous: 42.9)
09:00 European Monetary Union Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - Nov (Previous: 41.1)
09:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply - Oct (Previous: 1.5% m/m; 12.4% y/y)
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - Nov (Previous: 41.5)
13:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product - Oct (Previoyus: -0.3% m/m)
15:00 United States ISM Manufacturing -Nov (Previous: 38.9)
18:30 United States Fed's Bernanke Speech

Tuesday December 2

00:30 Australia Current Account Balance - 3Q (Previous: -12774M)
00:30 Australia Retail Sales - Oct (Previous: 0.2%; ex inflation: -1.1%)
03:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 5.25%)
06:45 Switzerland Consumer Price Index - Oct (Previous: 0.5% m/m; 2.6% a/a)

Wednesday December 3

00:01 United Kingdom Nationwide Consumer Confidence - Nov (Previous: 55)
00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Previous: 0.3% q/q; 2.7% y/y)
08:55 Germany Purchasing Manager Index Services - Nov (Previous: 48.3)
09:00 European Monetary Union Purchasing Manager Index Services - Nov (Previous: 45.8)
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services - Nov (Previous: 42.4)
10:00 European Monetary Union Retail Sales - Nov (Previous: -0.2% m/m; -1.6% y/y)
10:30 United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index - Nov (Previous: 3% y/y)
13:15 United States ADP Employment Change - Nov (Previous: -157K)
13:30 United States Nonfarm Productivity - 3Q (Previous: 4.3%)
15:00 United States ISM Non-Manufacturing - Nov (Previous: 44.4)
19:00 United States Fed's Beige Book
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 6.5%)

Thursday December 4

00:30 Australia Trade Balance - Oct (Previous: 1.46B)
06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product - Oct (Previous: 0.3% m/m% 2.3% y/y)
10:00 European Monetary Union Revised Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) - 3Q (Previous: -0.2%)
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 3%)
12:45 European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 3.25%)
15:00 United States Factory Orders - Oct (Previous: -2.5%)
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index - Nov (52.2)

Friday December 5

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. - Oct (Previous: -8% m/m; -2.7% y/y)
12:00 Canada Unemployment Rate - Nov (Previous: 6.2%)
13:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls - Nov (Previous: -240K)
13:30 United States Unemployment Rate - Nov (Previous: 6.5%)

Published on Fri, Nov 28 2008, 15:16 GMT

Stock markets continue weakening

Mon, Nov 24 2008, 08:13 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

This past week we have seen inflation declining at a well sharper than expected pace in the United States aswell as in Canada. In the US Consumer prices posted the largest monthly drop in 61 years which has arisen concerns about deflation adding pressutre to the actual global crisis.

In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank approved a surprising 1.0% rate cut on Thursday, leaving the Libor Rate at 1%, while the Bank of Japan kept rates on Hold at 0.30%

Stock indexes have declined for four days in a row and on that negative landscape, the Yen and the Dollar have been favoured, appreciatting considerably against other currencies. The USDCAD has reaced 1.2984, the USDJPY has declined throughout the week to reach a 93.5650.

Next week we have got several important events to check out:

Monday Nov 24

09:00 European Monetary Union Current Account - September (Previous: -7.9 Bill)
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate - November (Previous: 90.2)
10:00 European Monetary Union Industrial New Orders - September (Previous: -1.2% m/m; -6.6% y/y)
15:00 United States Existing Home Sales - Octobeer (Previous: 5.5%)

Tuesday Nov 25

02:00 New Zealand RBNZ Inflation Expectations - 4Q (Previous: 3)
06:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey
07:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Previous: -0.4 Q/Q; 3.3% y/y)
07:10 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey - December (Previous: 1.9)
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals - October (Previous; 43.422K)
13:30 Canada Retail Sales - September (Previous: -0.3%; ex autos: -0.3%)
13:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized - 3Q (Previous: 2.8%)
13:30 United States Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index - 3Q (Previous: 4.2%)
15:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - November (Previous: -26)
15:00 United States Consumer Confidence - November (Previous: 38)

Wednesday Nov 26

08:00 Japan BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
09:30 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product Prelim. - 3Q (Previous: 0% Q/Q;1.5% y/y)
n/a Germany Consumer Price Index Prelim. - November (Previous: -0.2% m/m% 2.4% y/y)
13:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (Previous: 0.2% m/m; 2.4% y/y)
13:30 United States Durable Goods Orders - October (Previous: 0.8% ; ex-transport -1.1% )
14:45 United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index - November (Previous: 37.8)
14:55 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (Previous: 57.6)
15:00 United States New Home Sales - October (Previous: 464K)
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance - October (Previous: -1183 mill.)
23:50 Japan BoJ Minutes

Thursday November 27

02:00 New Zealand Business Confidence - November (Previous: -42.4)
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a - October (Previous: -1.4% m/m; .14.6% a/a)
08:15 Switzerland Employment Level - 3Q (Previous: 3.92 mill.)
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change - November (Previous -26K)
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence - November (Previous: -24)
23:15 Japan PMI Manufacturing Index - October (Previous: 42.2)
23:30 Japan Jobless Rate - October (Previous: 4%)
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index - October (Previous: 2.1% y/y; ex food & energy 0.2%)
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: 1.2% y/y; ex food and energy: 0.4%)
23:50 Japan Industrial Production Prelim. - October (Previous: 1.1% m/m; 0.2% y/y)
23:50 Japan Retail Trade - October (Previous: -0.5% m/m; -0.4% y/y)

Friday November 28

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence - November (Previous: -36)
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index Ptrelim. - November (Previous: 3.2% y/y)
10:00 European Monetary Union Unemployment Rate - October (Previous: 7.5%)
11:00 United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized - November (Previous: -27)
13:30 Canada Current Account - October (Previous: 6.8B)

Published on Mon, Nov 24 2008, 08:13 GMT

Stock markets continue weakening

Fri, Nov 21 2008, 15:23 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

Monday Nov 24

09:00 European Monetary Union Current Account - September (Previous: -7.9 Bill)
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate - November (Previous: 90.2)
10:00 European Monetary Union Industrial New Orders - September (Previous: -1.2% m/m; -6.6% y/y)
15:00 United States Existing Home Sales - Octobeer (Previous: 5.5%)

Tuesday Nov 25

02:00 New Zealand RBNZ Inflation Expectations - 4Q (Previous: 3)
06:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey
07:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Previous: -0.4 Q/Q; 3.3% y/y)
07:10 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey - December (Previous: 1.9)
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals - October (Previous; 43.422K)
13:30 Canada Retail Sales - September (Previous: -0.3%; ex autos: -0.3%)
13:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized - 3Q (Previous: 2.8%)
13:30 United States Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index - 3Q (Previous: 4.2%)
15:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - November (Previous: -26)
15:00 United States Consumer Confidence - November (Previous: 38)

Wednesday Nov 26

08:00 Japan BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
09:30 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product Prelim. - 3Q (Previous: 0% Q/Q;1.5% y/y)
n/a Germany Consumer Price Index Prelim. - November (Previous: -0.2% m/m% 2.4% y/y)
13:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (Previous: 0.2% m/m; 2.4% y/y)
13:30 United States Durable Goods Orders - October (Previous: 0.8% ; ex-transport -1.1% )
14:45 United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index - November (Previous: 37.8)
14:55 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (Previous: 57.6)
15:00 United States New Home Sales - October (Previous: 464K)
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance - October (Previous: -1183 mill.)
23:50 Japan BoJ Minutes

Thursday November 27

02:00 New Zealand Business Confidence - November (Previous: -42.4)
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a - October (Previous: -1.4% m/m; .14.6% a/a)
08:15 Switzerland Employment Level - 3Q (Previous: 3.92 mill.)
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change - November (Previous -26K)
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence - November (Previous: -24)
23:15 Japan PMI Manufacturing Index - October (Previous: 42.2)
23:30 Japan Jobless Rate - October (Previous: 4%)
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index - October (Previous: 2.1% y/y; ex food & energy 0.2%)
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index - November (Previous: 1.2% y/y; ex food and energy: 0.4%)
23:50 Japan Industrial Production Prelim. - October (Previous: 1.1% m/m; 0.2% y/y)
23:50 Japan Retail Trade - October (Previous: -0.5% m/m; -0.4% y/y)

Friday November 28

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence - November (Previous: -36)
10:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index Ptrelim. - November (Previous: 3.2% y/y)
10:00 European Monetary Union Unemployment Rate - October (Previous: 7.5%)
11:00 United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized - November (Previous: -27)
13:30 Canada Current Account - October (Previous: 6.8B)

Published on Fri, Nov 21 2008, 15:23 GMT

Fear and Uncertainty in the Markets

Mon, Nov 17 2008, 09:04 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

The week we leave behind has been a week marked by fear and uncertainty in the markets, the uncertain economic situation has affected particularly the British Pound which has plunged to historical lows against the yen, reaching levels around 140. Against the Dollar, the Pound has plunged below the 1.5 level and the EUR/GBP has reachd the 0.85 level.

This weekend, attention will be focused in the G20 meeting, aimed to find ways to find out solutions against the global crisis, although the level of expectations surrounding teh event are rather low.

In the macro economic domain last week we have seen the Europeasn Union entering into recession fotrr the first time since tihe Union was created, while Te ECB's monthly report warned the unusually high level of uncertainty economy is going through, while stating the decline of consumer spending and its consequences over the manufacturing sector.

Next week we have got several important events to check out:

Sunday Nov 16

G 20 Meeting
23:50: Japan Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Previous: -0.7%; annualized: -3%)
23:50: Japan Tertiary Industry Index - September (Previous: -1.4%)

Monday Nov 17

00:01: United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index - October (Previous: 1% m/m; -4.9% y/y)
10:00: European Monetary Union Trade Balance - September (Previous: -EUR9.3B)
13:30: United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - November (Previous: -24.62)
14:15: United States Industrial Production - October (Previous: -2.8%)

Tuesday Nov 18

00:30: Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes - November
05:00: Japan Leading Economic Index - September (Previous: 89)
08:15: Switzerland Adjusted Real Retail Sales - September (Previous: 0%)
09:30: United Kingdom Consumer Price Index - October (Previous: 0.5% m/m; 5.2% y/y)
09:30: United Kingdom Retail Price Index - October(Previous: 0.6% m/m; 5.0% y/y)
13:30: United States Producer Price Index - October (Previous: -0.4% m/m; 8.7% y/y)
14:00: United States Net Long-term TIC Flows - September (Previous: $14B)
21:45: New Zealand Producer Price Index - 3 Qtr (Previous: Output 3.5%; input 5.6%)
23:50: Japan All Industry Activity Index - September (Previous: -1.8%)

Wednesday Nov 19

09:30: United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes
13:30: Canada Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities - September (Previous: C$0.172B)
13:30: Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities - September (Previous: C$0.73B)
13:30: Canada Leading Indicators - October (Previous: -0.2%)
13:30: United States Consumer Price Index - October (Previous: 4.9% Y/Y; core CPI: 2.5% Y/Y)
13:30: United States Housing Starts - October (Ptrevious: 0.817M)
19:00: United States FOMC Minutes
23:50: Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance - October (Previous: ¥33B)

Thursday November 20

07:00: Germany Producer Price Index - October (Previous: 0.3% m/m; 8.3% y/y)
07:15: Switzerland Trade Balance - October (Previous: 1.44B)
09:30: United Kingdom Retail Sales - October (Previous: -0.4% m/m; 1.8% y/y)
15:00: United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - November (Previous: -37.5)
15:00: United States Leading Indicators - October (Previous: 0.3%)
n/a: United States Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks

Friday November 21

n/a: Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
n/a: Japan BoJ Press Conference
08:30: Germany Flash Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - November (Previous: 42.9)
09:00: European Monetary Union Flash Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - November (Previous: 41.1)
11:00: Canada Consumer Price Index - October (Previous: 3.4% y/y; Core CPI: 1.7% y/y)

Published on Mon, Nov 17 2008, 09:04 GMT

Fear and Uncertainty in the Markets

Fri, Nov 14 2008, 14:45 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

Sunday Nov 16

G 20 Meeting
23:50: Japan Gross Domestic Product - 3Q (Previous: -0.7%; annualized: -3%)
23:50: Japan Tertiary Industry Index - September (Previous: -1.4%)

Monday Nov 17

00:01: United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index - October (Previous: 1% m/m; -4.9% y/y)
10:00: European Monetary Union Trade Balance - September (Previous: -EUR9.3B)
13:30: United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - November (Previous: -24.62)
14:15: United States Industrial Production - October (Previous: -2.8%)

Tuesday Nov 18

00:30: Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes - November
05:00: Japan Leading Economic Index - September (Previous: 89)
08:15: Switzerland Adjusted Real Retail Sales - September (Previous: 0%)
09:30: United Kingdom Consumer Price Index - October (Previous: 0.5% m/m; 5.2% y/y)
09:30: United Kingdom Retail Price Index - October(Previous: 0.6% m/m; 5.0% y/y)
13:30: United States Producer Price Index - October (Previous: -0.4% m/m; 8.7% y/y)
14:00: United States Net Long-term TIC Flows - September (Previous: $14B)
21:45: New Zealand Producer Price Index - 3 Qtr (Previous: Output 3.5%; input 5.6%)
23:50: Japan All Industry Activity Index - September (Previous: -1.8%)

Wednesday Nov 19

09:30: United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes
13:30: Canada Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities - September (Previous: C$0.172B)
13:30: Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities - September (Previous: C$0.73B)
13:30: Canada Leading Indicators - October (Previous: -0.2%)
13:30: United States Consumer Price Index - October (Previous: 4.9% Y/Y; core CPI: 2.5% Y/Y)
13:30: United States Housing Starts - October (Ptrevious: 0.817M)
19:00: United States FOMC Minutes
23:50: Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance - October (Previous: ¥33B)

Thursday November 20

07:00: Germany Producer Price Index - October (Previous: 0.3% m/m; 8.3% y/y)
07:15: Switzerland Trade Balance - October (Previous: 1.44B)
09:30: United Kingdom Retail Sales - October (Previous: -0.4% m/m; 1.8% y/y)
15:00: United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - November (Previous: -37.5)
15:00: United States Leading Indicators - October (Previous: 0.3%)
n/a: United States Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks

Friday November 21

n/a: Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
n/a: Japan BoJ Press Conference
08:30: Germany Flash Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - November (Previous: 42.9)
09:00: European Monetary Union Flash Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - November (Previous: 41.1)
11:00: Canada Consumer Price Index - October (Previous: 3.4% y/y; Core CPI: 1.7% y/y)

Published on Fri, Nov 14 2008, 14:45 GMT

Jeopardizing the Foundation of the World Economy

Fri, Nov 7 2008, 15:38 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have had a turbulent week, haven't we? 500 point drop on the Dow Dow Jones Industrial Average was the biggest decline in Post-Election Day history for the U.S. On Nov 6th, It was surprising that the Bank of England decided to cut the interest rate by 150bps to 3.00% much more than expectations. On the same day the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 50bps to 3.25%. On Nov 7th the “Big” NFPs was -240K (vs forecast -200k) and the U.S unemployment rate was 6.5% that is the highest since March 1994. The global economy might need some more time to get on track to recovery on its own.

Alright! We keep on paying close attention to the markets during the week (Nov 9th to Nov 14th ) where there are many significant events are scheduled. Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Nov 9th) we have the following events to watch:

It is worth noting that G 20 Meeting takes place in Brazil.
There is no significant event on Sunday

On Monday (Nov 10th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, RBA Monetary Policy Statement is scheduled at 00:30 GMT. Be aware AUD/USD traders.
In the U.K. PPI Input (Previous -1.2%) and PPI Output (Previous -0.3%) are notable events to follow.
In Canada, Housing Starts (Previous 218K) is an event to monitor.
In the Euro zone, Trichet will have a press conference at 15:30 GMT.
In Japan, Current Account (Previous 0.90T) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Tuesday (Nov 11th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Previous -1.5%) and Trade Balance (Previous -8.2B) are notable events to follow.
In Australia, NAB Business Confidence (Previous -8) and Westpac Consumer Sentiment are to be taken into account.
In Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -63.0) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the Euro zone, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -62.7) is released at 10:00 GMT.

On Wednesday (Nov 12th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Household Confidence (Previous 31.4) is an event to follow.
In the UK, Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.7%) and the BoE Inflation Letter are notable events to monitor.
In New Zealand, both Retail Sales (Previous 0.4%) and Core Retail Sales (Previous 0.8%) are scheduled at 21:45 GMT.

On Thursday (Nov 13th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Industrial Production (Previous 1.2%) is released at 04:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, SECO Consumer Climate (Previous -17) is released at 06:45 GMT.
In Germany, Gross Domestic Product (Previous -0.5%) is a notable events to follow.
In Switzerland, Producer Price Index (Previous -0.5%) is an event to monitor.
In Canada, Trade Balance (Previous 5.8B) is released at 13:30 GMT.
In the U.S. Trade Balance (Previous -59.1B) is a remarkable event to follow.

On Friday (Nov 14th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Germany, Consumer Price Index (Previous -0.2%) is an important event to watch.
In the Euro zone, Gross Domestic Product (Previous -0,2%), Consumer Price Index (Previous 3.2%), and Core Consumer Price Index (Previous 1,9%) are significant events to watch. These events are released all together at 10:00 GMT.
In the US, there are significant events that might generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors, namely Retail Sales (Previous -1.2%), Core Retail Sales (Previous 0.6%), Import Price Index (Previous -3.0%) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Previous 57.6) . In addition, the Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at 14:00 GMT should be taken into account.

Published on Fri, Nov 7 2008, 15:38 GMT

Turblent Times

Fri, Oct 31 2008, 07:34 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have been seeing turblent times that we have never experienced bforeOn 29 Oct, Fed decided to cut the ongoing interest rate by 50bps to 1.00%. U.S. Stocks bounced slightly after the release, that helped the JPY crosses to move upward.

High volatility remains in the Forex market. We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets. The have several explosive events. On schedule, we have the central banks' interest rate decisions, followed by the RBA, the BoE and the ECB. Furthermore, significant events are also released such as ISM Non-manufacturing index, the U.K. retail sales, and Canadian unemployment rate and the big nonfarm payrolls. Alright. Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Nov 2nd) we have the following events to watch

In Australia, AIG Manufacturing Index (Previous 47.2) and Retail Sales Trend (Previous 0.3%) are events to follow. These events are expected to generate low volatility for the AUD.

On Monday (Nov 3rd) Focus on the ISM Manufacturing Index and the RBA Interest Rate Decision

In Switzerland, SVME PMI (Previous 47.8) is an event to follow.
In Euro zone, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 41.3) is scheduled at 05:00 GMT.
In the U.K. BoE King speech and Manufacturing PMI (Previous 41.0) are events to follow.
In the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (Previous 43.5) is a remarkable event to watch.
The Index considered as an early indicator for the nonfarm payrolls is one of the biggest economic events that could generate high volatility for the USD.
In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Prices (Previous –4.9%) is an event to monitor.
In Australia, the RBA Intersest Rate Announcement (Current 6.00%) is scheduled at 23:30 GMT. Be aware USD/AUD traders

On Tuesday (Nov 4th) U.S. Presidential Election Day

In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.8 %) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In the Euro zone, PPI (Previous –0.5%9 is released at 06:00 GMT.
In the U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 50) can not be missed to follow.
In Japan, Trade Balance (Previous 1.36B) is released at 20:30 GMT. Later on at 22:30 GMT, GoJ governor Shirakawa gives a press conference. Let’s see how the BoJ consideres the highly appreciated JPY.

On Wednesday (Nov 5th) we have the following events to watch

In The U.K. Industrial Production (Previous –0.6%), Leading Index (Previous –0.6%) and NIESR GDP Estimate (Previous –0.2%) are important events to monitor.
In the U.K. Retail Sales (Previous 0.3%) is a notable event to consider.
In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Previous -8K) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Previous 50.2) are remarkable events to follow. These events could serve as an early indiator for the big nonfarm payrolls as well.
In New Zealand, Unemployment Rate (Previous 3.9%) is released at 17:45 GMT.
In Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are releassed at 19:50 GMT. The content of the last minutes might generate high volatility for the JPY.
In Australia, Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.3%) is scheduled at 20:30 MT.

On Thursday (Nov 6th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement (Current 4.50% , at 08:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 3.75%, at 08:45 GMT) are released in sequence.
The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 09:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the current economic outlook in the Eurozone and the recent value of the EUR.
In Canada, Ivey PMI (Previous 61.0) is released at 11:00 GMT.

On Friday (Nov 7th) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate (Previous 2.6%) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Trade Balance (Previous 13.1B) and Industrial Production (Previous 3.4%) are important events to monitor.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1%) is a notable event to watch.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.0%), Non-Farm Payrolls (the NFP. Previous -159K), the Average Hourly Earnings (Previous 0.2%) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to generate excessive volatility for the USD against the other majors.
All of the events are released at 09:30 GMT. Later on Pending Home Sales (Previous 7.4%) is released at 11:00 GMT.

Published on Fri, Oct 31 2008, 07:34 GMT

Soaring Exchange Rates of the Dollar and the Yen

Fri, Oct 24 2008, 13:17 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

High liquidity of the markets remains and we have been seeing the extremely volatile market. 4 majors have shown remarkable price actions. Also the JPY crosses have surprised us. The GBP/JPY sold off sharply towards the support at 138.81. Turmoil in the financial markets seems not like to end any time soon.

This week does have several explosive events. We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets. Alright. Let's review them all. Please note that Fed rate decision is released on Wednesday, The market expectation is 50bp cut to 1.00%.

On Sunday (Oct 26th) Queen's Birthday in New Zealand.

There is no significant event on Sunday.

On Monday (Oct 27th) Focus on the ISM Manufacturing Index

In Germany, CPI (Previous -0.1%) and Ifo Business Climate (Previous 992.9) are important events to follow.
In the Euro zone, M3 money Supply (Previous 8.8%) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. New Home Sales (Previous 460K) is notable events to watch.
In Japan, Retail Sales (Previous 0.7%) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Tuesday (Oct 28th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, GfK Consumer Climate is scheduled at 07:00 GMT.
In the U.S. Consumer Confidence (Previous 59.8) and Richmond Manufacturing Index (Previous -18) are released at 14:00 GMT. Also Treasury secretary Paulson's Tentative Speech is scheduled.
In New Zealand, Trade Balance (Previous -750M) is released at 21:45 GMT.
In Japan, Industrial Production (Previous -3.5%) is scheduled at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday (Oct 29th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, NBA Quarterly Business Confidence (Previous -8) is an event to follow.
In the U.K. Mortgage Approval (Previous 32K) is to be taken into account.
In the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Previous -4.8%) and Core Durable Goods orders (Previous -3.3%) are released at 12:30 GMT. Later on at 18:15 Fed Interest rate Decision (Current 1.50%) is announced.

On Thursday (Oct 30th) we have the following events to watch:

Inn New Zealand, NBNZ Business Confidence is released at 02:00 GMT:
In Germany, Retail Sales (Previous 1.9%) is a notable event to watch.
In the Euro zone, Consumer Conference (Previous -19) is an event to monitor.
In the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Previous 2.8%) is notable event to follow.
In Japan, several significant events that might generate high volatility for the JPY are released followed by Manufacturing PMI (Previous 44.3), Household Spending (Previous -4.0%) Core CPI (Previous 2.4%) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.2%).

On Friday (Oct 31st) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with following events

In the U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence (Previous -32) is released at 00:01 GMT.
In Japan, BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current 0.50%) is scheduled.
In the Euro zone, CPI (Previous 3.6%) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.5%) are remarkable events to watch.
In Canada, Gross Domestic Product (Previous 0.7%) is released at 12:30 GMT.
In the U.S. Core PCE, Chicago PMI (Previous 56.7) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Previous 57.5) are important events to watch.

Published on Fri, Oct 24 2008, 13:17 GMT

Easing Off Risk Aversion?

Fri, Oct 17 2008, 13:36 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Last week, with investors a watching very closely any upcoming economic indicators to assess the real outlook for the global economy. U.S. economic data depicting short-term economic trends did not give reasons for optimism. Industrial production recorded its worst decline since 1974. (Actual -2.8% vs forecast 0.9%), and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey established its lowest record at -37.5 since Oct 1990, besides, N.Y. Fed index (actual -24.62 vs forecast -10.00) and U.S. retail sales (actual -1.2% vs forecast -0.6%) have added reasons for concern.

JPY crosses have recovered slightly as global stocks rebounded sharply after a heavy fall last week, driven G7's call on further action against the global financial crisis. USD/CAD hit its highest record in last 36 months at 1.2127 on Friday10th Oct. It seems thast volatility arrived ti the markets to stay. Although we do not have too many economic events for next week , several explosive ones are scheduled. We can not afford to miss any of them. Let´s review them all.

On Sunday (Oct 19th) we have the following events to watch:

In the U.K. Rightmove HPI Index (Previous -1.0%) is released at 23:01 GMT.

On Monday (Oct 20th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, PPI (Previous -0.6%) is an event to watch.
In the U.K. M4 Money Supply (Previous 1.4%) and Public sector Net Borrowing (Previous 10.4B) are released at 08:30 GMT.
In Canada, Foreign Securities Purchases (Previous -5.59B) is released at 12:30 GMT.
In the U.S. The fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony is scheduled at 14:00 GMT.
In New Zealand, CPI (Previous 1.6%) is an event to watch.

On Tuesday (Oct 21st) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released at 00:30 GMT. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the AUD.
In Switzerland, Trade balance (Previous 1.43B) is an event to monitor.
In Canada, BoC Interest Rate Statement (Current 2.50%) is announced at 13:00 GMT.
In Japan, All Industries Activity (Previous 0.8%) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday (Oct 22nd) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, CPI (Previous 1.5%) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In the U.K. MPC Meeting Minutes are released at 08:30 GMT. The content of the meeting may generate high volatility for the GBP.
In Canada, Both Retail Sales (Previous 0.1%) and Core Retail Sales (Previous 0.4%) are remarkable events to take into account. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In New Zealand, RBNZ Interest Rate Announcement is scheduled (Previous 7.50%) at 20:00 GMT. Be aware NZD traders.
In the Euro-Zone, PMI is a remarkable event to watch ( previous 53.2), followed by Current Account ( previous 1.7B ).
In Japan, Trade Balance (Previous -0.11T) is to be taken into account.

On Thursday (Oct 23rd) we have the following events to watch:

In Euro zone, Current Account (Previous -1.7B) and Industrial New orders (Previous 1.0%) are notable events to monitor.
In the U.K. Retail Sales (Previous 1.2%) are remarkable event to follow.
In the U.S. House Price Index (Previous -0.6%) is released at 14:00 GMT.

On Friday (Oct 24th) have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 47.4) is an important event to watch.
In the Euro zone, manufacturing PMI (Previous 45.0) is released at 08:00 GMT.
In the U.K. GDP (Previous 0.0%) is scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
In Canada, CPI (Previous -0.2%) and Core CPI (Previous 0.3%) are not to be missed.
In the U.S. Existing Home Sales (Previous 4.91M) is a notable event to monitor.

Published on Fri, Oct 17 2008, 13:36 GMT

Looking Forward A Brighter Future

Fri, Oct 10 2008, 15:08 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The coordinate rate cuts failed to halt the uncertainty over the global crisis, which has accelerated the risk aversion strategy. The USD, the JPY and Gold became safe heaven, while the GBP and the EUR remained very weak. The GBP/USD hit its 5 years lowest at 1.6776 in the early European session on Friday Oct 10. The GBP/JPY finally found a support at 165.91. Tense situation still remains in the global financial market. Let's wait and see outcomes of the G7, which might open a new chapter in the Global market.

Alright! let's keep our eyes open for the markets during the week (Oct 12th to Oct 17th).

On Sunday (Oct 12th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Retail Sales (Previous -0.8 %) and Core Retail Sales (Previous -0.2 %) are released at 21:45 GMT: There is no further events on Sunday.

On Monday (Oct 13th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, PPI (Previous -0.5 %) is an event to follow.

In the U.K. PPI Input (Previous -2.0 %), PPI Output (Previous -0.6 %), and RBC Retail Sales Monitor (Previous -1.0 %) are notable events to follow.

On Tuesday (Oct 14th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Household Confidence and Current Account (Previous 1.56 T) are to be taken into account.

In the U.K. CPI (Previous 4.7 %), Core CPI (Previous 2.0 %), and RPI (Previous 4.8%) are important events to watch.

In the Euro zone, Industrial Production (Previous -0.3 %) and ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -40.9) are events to monitor.

In Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -41.1) is released at 10:00 GMT.

On Wednesday (Oct 15th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Industrial Production (Previous -3.5 %) is released at 04:30 GMT.

In Germany, CPI (Previous -0.1 %) is scheduled at 06:00 GMT.

In the U.K. Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.5 %) is an important event to monitor.

In the Euro zone, CPI (Previous 3.6 %) and Core CPI (Previous 1.9 %) are remarkable events to follow.

In the U.S. Many significant events that might generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors are released followed by Retail Sales (Previous -0.3 %), Core Retail Sales (Previous -0.7 %), PPI (Previous -0.9 %), Core PPI (Previous 0.2 %), Empire Manufacturing Index (Previous -7.4), and Beige Book. Also, Tentative Speech of the Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled.

In New Zealand, Business NZ Manufacturing Index (Previous 45.7) is released at 22:00 GMT.

On Thursday (Oct 16th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Retail Sales (Previous 6.2 %) and ZEW Economic Expectations (Previous -44.4) should be taken into account.

In the U.S. Several important events are released followed by CPI (Previous -0.1 %), Core CPI (Previous 0.2 %) TIC Long Term Purchases (Previous 6.1 B), Capacity Utilization Rate (78.7 %), Industrial Production (Previous -1.1 %), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and NAHB Housing Market Index (Previous 18).

In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Previous 1.2%) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Friday (Oct 17th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Import Price Index (Previous 1.4%) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.

In Japan, BoJ Governor Shirakawa will have a press conference at 06:35 GMT. In the Euro zone, Trade Balance (Previous -6.4 B) is an event to monitor.

In the U.S. Building Permit (Previous 0.85 M), Housing Starts (Previous 0.90 M) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Previous 70.3) are remarkable events to watch.

Published on Fri, Oct 10 2008, 15:08 GMT

Turbulent Times

Fri, Oct 3 2008, 14:51 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The NFP came out much worse than expected on Friday, (Oct 3rd : Actual -159 K vs Forecast -85 K) while U.S. unemployment rate reminded at 6.1 % the worst last 5 years. Ahead of the vote for the Bailout plan, the market reactions seemed limited. Well, the U.S. Job data might have been “not so bad” as some analysts expected. we have been seeing these turbulent times that we have never experienced before. Fannie Mae,Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual.

These big names have either gone to ruin entirely, or discontinued to exist as independent firms.

The bailout plan was be passed in the Senate. We are now waiting for a decision of the lower House (at 12:30 GMT Oct 3rd). We keep an eye open to any economic news coming.

On schedule for the next week, we have many significant events to follow. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Oct 5th) we have the following events to watch:

There is no signification event on Sunday.

On Monday (Oct 6th) we have the following events to watch:

In the U.K. NIESR GDP Estimate (Previous -0.2 %) is an event to follow. This report that comes out a month before the official announce is highly reliable and can influence the UK monetary policy.
In Canada, Building Permits (Previous 1.8 %) and Ivey PMI ( Previous 51.5) are events to follow. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In NZIER Business Confidence (Previous -64) is an event to follow. Be aware NZD/USD traders.

On Tuesday (Oct 7th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with following events

In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current 0.50 %) is to be taken into account. Please keep eyes open for how the BoJ considers the economic situation.
In Australia, the RBA Interest Rate Announcement (Current 7.00 %) is scheduled at 03:30 GMT. Be aware AUD/USD traders.
In the U.K. Industrial Production (Previous -0.4 %) is a notable event to watch.
In the Euro zone, the President of the ECB Trichet's tentative speech is scheduled. Let's see if there is any sign of progress being made.
In Germany, Factory Orders ( Previous -1.7 % ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
In the U.S. The Fed Chairman Bernanke will have a press conference at 16:00. Later on at 18:00 GMT, FOMC Meeting Minutes are released. Please keep your eyes open for it. The content of the meeting may generate high volatility for the USD against the major currencies.
In the U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 52) is an important event to take into account.
In Australia, Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Previous 7.0%) is released at 23:30 GMT.

On Wednesday (Oct 8th) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK,BRC Shop Price Index (Previous 3.8%) and Leading Index (Previous -0.7%) are events to follow.
In Germany, Industrial Production (Previous -1.8 %) is an event to monitor.
In U.S Pending Home Sales (Previous -3.2%) should be taken into account.

On Thursday (Oct 9th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.4% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Germany, Trade Balance (Previous 11.8B) is remarkable event to watch.
In Euro zone, Monthly Bulletin is released at 08:00 GMT.
In the UK, Trade Balance (Previous 11.1B) and the MPC Rate Statement (Current 5.00%) are remarkable events to follow.
In Japan, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released at 23:50 GMT.

On Friday (Oct 10th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, NAB Business Confidence (Previous -7) is to be taken into account.
In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate (Previous 2.5 %) is an event to follow.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1 %) and Trade Balance (Previous 4.9 B) are remarkable events to follow. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, Trade Balance (Previous -62.2 B) and Import Price Index (Previous -3.7 %) are notable events to watch.

Published on Fri, Oct 3 2008, 14:51 GMT

Marked Wariness Among The Global Financial Market.

Fri, Sep 26 2008, 13:34 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The working out of the Bailout Plan has proved to be a difficult process. In addition, the collapse of the Washington Mutual Inc., one of the biggest thrift banks in the US, has driven up the marked wariness. The gradual decline of the greenback could go further until the plan gets enough support to pass.

Although the market has been waffling behind the uncertainty no matter what economic data comes out, we should keep paying extra attention to the economic events. On schedule we have significant events such as the ECB interest rate decision, ISM manufacturing, ISM Non Manufacturing, and “the Big Non-Farm payrolls” Alright. Let's keep it up!.

On Sunday (Sept 28th) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand. Trade Balance (Previous -781 M) is released at 21:45 GMT.
In Japan, Retail Sales (Previous 2.0%) is an event to follow.

On Monday (Sept 29th) Lobar Day in the U.S.

In the Euro zone, Consumer Confidence (Previous -19) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. Core PCE (Previous 0.3%), Personal Spending (Previous 0.2%) and Personal Income (Previous -0.7%) are important events to watch,
In the U.K. Mortgage Approval (Previous 33 K) and GfK Consumer Confidence (Previous -36) are to be taken into account.
In Japan, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 46.9), Household Spending (Previous -0.5%) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.0%) are important events to consider.

On Tuesday (Sept 30th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Retail Trend (Previous 0.1%) is released at 00:30 GMT.
In New Zealand, Business Confidence (Previous -20.5) is scheduled at 02:00 GMT.
In Germany, Retail Sales (Previous -1.5%) and Unemployment Change (Previous -40 K) are notable events to take into account.
In the U.K. Current Account (Previous -8.4 B) and Gross Domestic Product (Previous 0.0 %) are events to watch.
In the Euro zone, CPI (Previous 3.8%) is released at 09:00 GMT. Later on, the president of the ECB Trichet's speech is scheduled at 16:00 GMT.
In Canada, Gross Domestic Product (Previous 0.1%) is released at 12:30 GMT.
In the U.S. Chicago PMI (Previous 57.9) and Consumer Confidence (Previous 56.9) are events to monitor.
In Australia, AIG Manufacturing Index (Previous 47.0) is released at 23:30 GMT.
In Japan, Tankan Manufacturing Index (Previous 5) and Non-Manufacturing Index (previous 10) are scheduled at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday (Oct 1st) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Commodity Price Index (Previous 45.2%) is released at 06:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, SVME PMI (Previous 52.5) is released at 07:30 GMT.
In the Euro zone, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 45.3) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.3 %) are notable events to watch.
In the U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Previous 45.9) is scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
In the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Previous -33 K9 and ISM Manufacturing Index (Previous 49.9) are remarkable events to watch.The data considered as an early indicator for the non farm payrolls is big events that are expected to generate moderate volatility for the USD against the other majors.

On Thursday (Oct 2nd) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Trade Balance (Previous -0.72 B) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, the SNB Monetary Policy Report is released at 09:00 GMT.
In Euro-Zone, the ECB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 4.25%) is scheduled at 11:45 GMT.
The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rates at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the current economic situation in the Euro zone and the recent value of the EUR.
In the U.S. Factory Orders (Previous 1.3 %) is released at 14.00 GMT.

On Friday (Oct 3rd) we have the biggest day of the week with following events

In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index (Previous -0.3 %) is released at 05:45 GMT.
In the Euro zone, Retail Sales (Previous -0.4%) is an event to follow.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1 %), Non-Farm Payrolls (the NFP. Previous -84K), the Average Hourly Earnings (Previous 0.4 %) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to generate excessive volatility for the USD against the other majors. All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.
Latter on at 14:00 GMT, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Previous 50.6) is to be taken into account.

Published on Fri, Sep 26 2008, 13:34 GMT

Turbulent Days

Fri, Sep 19 2008, 12:55 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We realized that we just had a "wishful thinking", didn't we? Uncertainty still remains in the global financial market. The collapse of the U.S. fourth biggest investment bank Lehman Brothers was eminently illustrative of the ongoing crisis. The risks of USD crash and bonds crash have been barely avoided by the coordinated central banks intervention. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and the Fed Chairman Bernanke are considering several solutions to take a step towards structural reform of finances. Alright, let's have some time to recharge before the new week begins and then keep up the good work for the coming week.

On Sunday (Sept 21st) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, the BoJ Minutes of the last meeting are released at 23:50 GMT. We carefully watch what economic viewpoint the BoJ has. There is no further events on Sunday.

On Monday (Sept 22nd) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro zone, the ECB president Trichet's speech is scheduled at 07:15 GMT.

In Canada, Retail Sales are notable events to monitor

On Tuesday (Sept 23rd) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 49.7) is an important event to watch. In the Euro zone, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 47.6) is released at 08:00 GMT.

In Canada, CPIs are scheduled at 11:00 GMT. In the U.S. Housing Price Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index are remarkable events to monitor.

On Wednesday (Sept 24th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Ifo Business Climate (Previous 94.8) is a notable event to watch.

In the Euro zone, Current Account is released at 08:00 GMT. In the U.K. CBI Distributive Trades realized (Previous -46) is to be taken into account. In the U.S. the Fed Chairman Bernanke has a press conference at 14:00 GMT.

In Japan, Trade Balance is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Thursday (Sept 25th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Leading Index is released at 00:00 GMT.

In Germany, GfK German Consumer Climate and Import Price Index (Previous 0.6 %) are events to watch. In the U.S. New Home Sales is released at 14:00 GMT. Later on the Fed Chairman Bernanke has a press conference at 16:00 GMT.

In New Zealand, gross Domestic Product is released at 22:45 GMT.

In Japan, National Core CPI is an event to monitor.

On Friday (sept 26th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, CPI is an important event to follow. In the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Previous 3.3%) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment are remarkable events to watch. There is no further events on Friday.

Published on Fri, Sep 19 2008, 12:55 GMT

The Mighty Swell Of Changing Times

Fri, Sep 12 2008, 11:32 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have seen how the fundamentals changed the overall market sentiment and direction, and have found ourselves in the mighty swell of changing time, haven't we? The collapses of the EUR and the GBP, especially the GBP. There is a flurry of speculation that the U.K. economy would head into a deep recession. Unwinding JPY carry trade has gotten into full swing. Might be the GBP/JPY would not recover as easy as some of us wish. Rather, simply selling off the GBP would be an easy way to make profits with paying attention to some pull-backs.

The week has several important events. On schedule we have CPIs from the major countries, U.K. Retail sales, the meeting minutes of the BoE, and the rate announcements from the Fed, the BoJ and the SNB. Okay! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Sept 14th) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand, Manufacturing Sales (Previous 3.7%) is released at 22:45 GMT.
There is no further events on Sunday.

On Monday (Sept 15th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Retail Sales is released at 07:15 GMT.
In the Euro zone, CPI (Previous 3.3%) and Core CPI (Previous 1.6%) are notable events to follow.
In the U.S. Empire Sate Business Condition Index (Previous -3.2) and Capacity Utilization are important events to monitor.

On Tuesday (Sept 16th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes of the last meeting is released at 01:30 GMT. We carefully watch the content of the meeting.
In Japan, Household Confidence (Previous 31.4) is event to monitor.
In Germany, CPIs and ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -55.5) are notable events to watch.
In the UK, CPIs and BoE Inflation Letter are remarkable events to follow.
In the Euro zone, CPIs and ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -55.7) are scheduled at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. CPIs and TIC (53.4 B) are remarkable events to watch. Later on the Fed Interest Rate Decision (Current 2.00 %) is announced at 18:15 GMT. These events may generate a good deal of volatility for the USD against the other majors.

On Wednesday (Sept 17th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, WMI Leading Index (Previous 0.1 %) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current 0.50 %) is an event to follow. Also , the BoJ governor Shirakawa will have a press conference after the rate release. Please keep an eye open for how the BoJ considers the current economic situation.
In the UK, the BoE Minutes of the last meeting and Unemployment Rate are released at 8:30 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the BoE has. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the GBP against the major currencies.
In the Euro Zone, Trade Balance is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. Building Permit, Current Account (Previous -176 B), and Housing Start are events to be taken into account.
In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Previous -0.8%) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Thursday (Sept 18th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, the BoJ governor Shirakawa will have a press conference. B aware of JPY traders.
In Switzerland, Trade Balance is released at 06:15 GMT.
In the UK, Retail Sales is a notable event to watch. This event is expected to generate a good deal of volatility.
In Switzerland, SNB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 2.75 %) is scheduled at 12:00 GMT.
In Canada, Leading Indicators (Previous 0.0 %) is an event to monitor.
In the US, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Previous -12.7) is a remarkable event to monitor.
In New Zealand, Current Account (Previous -2.2 B) is released at 22:45 GMT.

On Friday (Sept 19th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Producer Price Index and Import Price Index are events to watch.
There is no further events on Friday.

Published on Fri, Sep 12 2008, 11:32 GMT

Unwinding Carry Trades Roil the Markets

Mon, Sep 8 2008, 07:43 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

A month of storm has gone. We have seen the extreme volatile markets in August. Unwinding JPY carry trades, the weak EUR, collapses of the oil prices, the GBP, the AUD, and the NZD. The GBP/USD collapsed over 1,500 pips its lowest close in last 2 years whilst the EUR/USD also hit its lowest close in last 6 months at 1.4566 after the release of the German Ifo data that was worse than expectations. (Actual 94.8 vs Forecast 97.2).

This week does have explosive events. On schedule , we have the central banks' interest rate decisions, followed by the RBA, the BoC, the BoE and the ECB. The RBA is expected to cut its benchmark rates by 25 bps (Current 7.25%). The BoE might also cut the interest rates to avoid getting caught in a serious downdraft despite the fact that high inflationary pressure is seen in the U.K. economy. The ECB would revise its monetary policy to keep the ongoing rates at 4.25 % as it keeps focusing on inflationary pressure in the Euro zone.
Also concerned about other events, ISM manufacturing and ISM Non Manufacturing are released on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Furthermore “the Big Non-Farm payrolls” is waiting for us on Friday. These events are expected to generate excessive volatility for the USD against the other majors. We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets. Alright. Let's review them all. It is worth noting that the N.Y. Session is closed on Monday (Sept 1st) due to a national holiday (Labor Day).

On Sunday (Aug 31st) we have the following events to watch:
In Australia, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 46.9) is released at 23:30 GMT. The Index is expected to generate low volatility for the AUD.

On Monday (Sept 1st) Lobar Day in the U.S.
In Australia, Current Account (Previous -19.5 %) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, SVME PMI (Previous 54.1) is an event to watch.
In the Euro zone, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 47.5 %) is scheduled at 08:00 GMT.
In the U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Previous 44.3) and Mortgage Approval (Previous 36 K) are to be taken into account.

On Tuesday (Sept 2nd) we have the following events to watch:
In Japan, BoJ governor Shirakawa will have a press conference at 01:00 GMT. Keep an eye open for what the BoJ considers the current economic situation.
In Australia, the RBA Interest Rate Announcement (Current 7.25 %) is scheduled at 04:30 GMT. The markets expect “25 bps cut”. Be aware USD/AUD traders.
In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index (Previous -0.4 %) and Gross Domestic Product (Previous 0.3 %) are released at 05:45 GMT.
In the Euro zone, Producer Price Index (Previous 0.9%) is an event to monitor.
In the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (Previous 50.0) is a remarkable event to watch.
The Index considered as an early indicator for the non farm payrolls is a big event that is expected to generate moderate volatility for the USD against the other majors.
In the U.K, Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 51) is released at 23:01GMT.

On Wednesday (Sept 3rd) we have the following events to watch:
In Australia, GDP (Previous 0.6 %) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In Germany, Retail Sales (Previous -1.4%) is a notable event to follow.
In the UK, BRC Shop Price Index (Previous 1.2 %) is scheduled at 09:30 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Retail Sales (Previous -0.6 %) and Gross Domestic Product (Previous -0.2%) are important events to follow.
In Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Announcement (Current 3.00 %) is released at 13:00 GMT.
In the U.S. Factory Orders (Previous 1.7%) is an important event to monitor.

On Thursday (Sept 4th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:
In Australia, Trade Balance (Previous 0.4B) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate (Previous 2.6%) is an event to follow.
In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement (Current 5.00% , at 11:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 4.25%, at 11:45 GMT) are released in sequence.
The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rates at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers inflationary pressure in the Euro zone and the recent value of the EUR.
In the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Previous 9K) is a remarkable event to follow. This event could serve as an indicator for the big non-farm payrolls as well.

On Friday (Sept 5th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with following events
In Germany, Industrial Production (Previous 0.2%) is an important event to monitor.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1%) and Ivey PMI (Previous 65.5) can not be missed to watch.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.7%), Non-Farm Payrolls (the NFP. Previous -51K), the Average Hourly Earnings (Previous 0.3%) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to generate excessive volatility for the USD against the other majors.
All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.

Published on Mon, Sep 8 2008, 07:43 GMT

Unwinding Carry Trades Roil the Markets

Fri, Sep 5 2008, 12:04 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Unstable global economic environment has brought “unwinding carry trades. We have seen the free fall JPY crosses, especially the GBP/JPY that hit a remarkable low at 186.07. looking back the week on September 8th, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank decided to hold the rates unchanged at 5.00% and 4.25% respectively. The ECB president Trichect's comments seemed as dovish side that has pushed the EUR/USD down further. On the other hand, as the BoE decided to hold the ongoing rates, no policy statement was released. We will have to wait the release of the MPC minutes on September 17th. Okay! we keep on paying close attention to the markets during the week (Sept 7th to Sept 12th ) where there are many significants events are scheduled. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Sept 7th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, the RBA governor Stevens will have a press conference at 23:00 GMT.

On Monday (Sept 8th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate is released at 05:45 GMT.
In the U.K. PPIs (both input and output), RBC Retail Sales, and NIESR GDP Estimate are notable events to monitor.
In Canada, Building Permits is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
In the U.S. Consumer Credit (Previous 14.3 B) should be taken into account.

On Tuesday (Sept 9th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Retail Sales (Previous -1.0%) and NAB Business Confidence (Previous -9) are important events to watch.
In Germany, Trade Balance is released at 06:00 GMT.
In the U.S. Pending Home Sales is a remarkable event to monitor.
In New Zealand, Overseas Trade Index (Previous 4.1%) is scheduled at 22:45 GMT.
In Japan, Current Account is an event to monitor.

On Wednesday (Sept 10th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia,WMI Consumer Sentiment (Previous 9.1% ) is an event to monitor.
In Japan, Leading Indicator is released at 05:00 GMT.
In the UK, Trade Balance (Previous -7.5B) and Leading Index are remarkable events to watch.
In New Zealand, the RBNZ Interest Rate Announcement (Current 8.00 %) is scheduled at 21:00 GMT. Be aware NZD/USD traders.

On Thursday (Sept 11th ) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand, Business NZ manufacturing Index is released at 00:00 GMT.
In Australia, Unemployment Rate is an event to follow.
In the Euro zone, ECB Bulletin is released at 08:00 GMT.
In the U.K. BoE inflation Attitudes is scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
In the U.S. Trade Balance and Import Price are remarkable events to watch.
In New Zealand, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are important events to follow.
In Japan, Gross Domestic Product is released at 23.50 GMT.

On Friday (Sept 12th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Industrial Production is released at 04:30 GMT.
In the Euro zone, Industrial Production and Employment Change are to be taken into account.
In Canada, Capacity Utilization (Previous 79.8%) is an event to monitor.
In the U.S. Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment are important events to monitor. These events are expected to generate a good deal of volatility for the USD against the other majors.

Published on Fri, Sep 5 2008, 12:04 GMT

The Central Banks' Interest Rate Decisions And The Big Non−Farm Payrolls

Mon, Sep 1 2008, 07:41 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Published on Mon, Sep 1 2008, 07:41 GMT

The Central Banks' Interest Rate Decisions And The Big Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, Aug 29 2008, 13:05 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Published on Fri, Aug 29 2008, 13:05 GMT

Do not Relax Your Attention

Fri, Aug 22 2008, 13:08 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Let's keep our eyes open for the markets during the week (Aug 24 to Aug 29) The week has

several significant events. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Aug 24th ) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand, Food Price Index (Previous 1.3%) is released at 22:45 GMT.

There is no further events on Sunday.

On Monday (Aug 25th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, the BoJ governor Shirakawa gives a press conference at 06:00 GMT. Keep an eye

onto how the BoJ considers the current economic and fiscal situation in Japan.

In German, Import Price Index (Previous 1.5%) is released at 06:00 GMT.

In the US, Existing Home Sales ( Previous 4.86M ) is a notable event to watch.

In New Zealand, Trade Balance (Previous -0.22B) is scheduled at 22:45 GMT.

On Tuesday (Aug 26th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Germany, Consumer Confidence (Previous 2.1), GDP (Previous -0.5%), and Ifo Business

Climate Index (Previous 97.5) are remarkable events to watch.

In the U.K. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Previous 21.1K) is released at 08:30 GMT.

In the U.S. Consumer Confidence (Previous 51.9), New Home Sales (Previous 530K), and Richmond Manufacturing Index (Previous -16) are important events of the week.

Later on FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 18:00 GMT. Please keep your eyes open for

it. The content of the meeting may generate high volatility for the USD against the major

currencies.

On Wednesday (Aug 27th) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand,Business Confidence (Previous 43.2) is an notable event.

In the U.K. Nationwide House Price Index (Previous -0.9%) is an event to follow.

In the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Previous 0.8%) and Core Durable Goods orders (Previous 2.0%) are remarkable events to monitor.

On Thursday (Aug 28th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Leading Index (Previous -0.1%) is released at 00:00 GMT.

In Switzerland, Employment Level (Previous 3.90M) is an important event to watch.

In Germany, Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.6%) is a notable event to watch.

In the Euro zone, Consumer Confidence (Previous -20) is released at 10:00GMT.

In the U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Realized (Previous -36) and GfK Consumer Confidence (Previous -39) are events to monitor.

In the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Previous 1.9%) is an important event to watch.

In Japan, CPI (Previous 1.9%), Household Spending (Previous -1.8%), Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.1%) and Retail Sales (Previous 0.3%) are notable events to monitor.

On Friday (Aug 29th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

In the Euro zone, CPI (Previous 4.0%) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.3%) are

remarkable events to follow.

In Switzerland, Leading Index (Previous 0.90) is released at 09:30 GMT:

In Canada, Gross Domestic Product (Previous -0.1%) is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.

In the US, Personal Spending (Previous 0.6%), Personal Income (Previous 0.1%) and Core

PCE Price Index (Previous 0.3%) are remarkable events. These events may generate high

volatility for the USD against the other major currencies. As well Chicago PMI (Previous 50.8)

and Consumer Sentiment at13:55 GMT (Previous 61.7) can not be missed to watch.

Published on Fri, Aug 22 2008, 13:08 GMT

The JPY Crosses Play The Game

Fri, Aug 15 2008, 09:33 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Although we've already had our dose of volatility in the last 2 weeks, Let's keep paying close attention to the markets during the week (August 17th to August 22nd) The week has several significant events. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Aug 17th) we have the following events to watch:

In the U.K. Rightmove House Price Index (Previous -1.8%) is released at 23:01 GMT.

On Monday (Aug 18th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Retail Sales is released at 07:15 GMT.
In the Eurozone, Trade Balance is an event to follow.
In the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index is scheduled at 17:00 GMT.
In New Zealand, PPI Input (Previous 2.3%) and PPI Output (Previous 1.8%) are events to monitor.

On Tuesday (Aug 19th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, RBA meeting Minutes of the last meeting are released at 01:30GMT.
In Japan, Interest Rate Decision (Current 0.50%) will be announced. Later on BoJ Press Conference is scheduled. Keep an eye open for how the BoJ considers the economic situation.
In Germany, Producer Price Index and ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -63.9) are notable events to watch.
In the Euro zone, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous 63.7) is released at 09:00GMT.
In Canada, Whole Sales (Previous 1.6%) is an event to watch.
In the U.S. PPI, PPI Core and Housing Stat are events to follow.

On Wednesday (Aug 20th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, WMI Leading Index (Previous 0.0% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Germany, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 50.9) is an important event to monitor.
In the Euro zone. Manufacturing PMI (Previous 47.4) is released at 08:00 GMT.
In the UK, the BoE Minutes of the last meeting are released at 8:30 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the BoE has. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the GBP against the major currencies.
In Canada, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are notable events to monitor. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In Japan, Trade Balance is released at23:50 GMT.

On Thursday (Aug 21st) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Switzerland, Trade Balance is scheduled at 06:15 GMT.
In the UK, Retail Sales is a notable event to watch.
In Canada, CPI , and Core CPI (Previous 0.3%) are notable events to monitor.
In the US, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Previous -16.3) and Leading Index (Previous -0.1%) are to taken into account.
In Japan, the BoJ Minutes of the last meeting are released at 23:50 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the BoJ has.

On Friday (Aug 22nd) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro zone, Current Account and Industrial New Orders (Previous -3.5%) are events to monitor.
In the U.K. GDP is released at 08:30 GMT.

Published on Fri, Aug 15 2008, 09:33 GMT

Fishing In Troubled Waters

Mon, Aug 11 2008, 08:14 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Last week 3 central banks: FRB, BoE and ECB decided to hold the ongoing interest rates at 2.00%, 5.00% and 4.25% respectively. The BoE has held the rate at 5.00% for four-months running. The MPC did show a concern about a serious recession in the U.K. We have been seeing the global economy steadily deteriorate into a slump. Major central banks might consider to cut interest rates followed by the FRB. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the interest rate by 25 bps in July. The Reserve Bank of Australia also showed a dovish outlook that the RBA would make consideration of future rate cut. As each country shows their dovish stance and negative economic data, the USD has been relatively appreciated against European currencies and Asia-Pacific currencies. The EUR/USD dropped over 400 pips while the AUD/USD fell from 0.9347 to 0.8897 in a week. The JPY crosses have shown big movements as well. The EUR/JPY has got back into the 165.00 region.

Next week several explosive events are lined up. We can not afford to miss any of them. Alright! Let's review them all!

On Sunday (Aug 10th) we have the following events to watch:

There is no significant event on Sunday.

On Monday (Aug 11th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, RBA Monetary Policy Statement is released at 01:30 GMT. Be aware of AUD/USD traders.
In the U.K. PPI Input, PPI Output. Trade Balance and RBC Retail Sales Monitor are remarkable events to monitor.

On Tuesday (Aug 12th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, NAB Business Confidence (Previous -9) should be taken into account.
In Japan, Industrial Production and Household Confidence (Previous 32..6) are notable events to follow.
In the U.K. CPI, Core CPI, and RPI are notable events to watch.
In Canada, Trade Balance is to be taken into account.
In the U.S. Trade Balance is released at 12:30 GMT.
In New Zealand, PPI Input (Previous 2.3%) and PPI Output (Previous 1.8%) are released at 22:45 GMT.
In Japan, GDP and Current Account (Previous 2.03T) are important events to monitor.

On Wednesday (Aug 13th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, WMI Consumer Sentiment (Previous -6.7% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In the UK, Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate are remarkable events to follow.
In the Euro Zone, Industrial Production (Previous -1.9%) is to be taken into account.
In the U.K. BoE Inflation Report is released at 09:30 GMT.
In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Previous -0.2%) is scheduled at 23:50 GMT.

On Thursday (Aug 14th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In New Zealand, Business Manufacturing Index is released at 00:00 GMT. Later on, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are scheduled at 22:45 GMT.
In Switzerland, Consumer Climate (Previous 2) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In Germany, GDP and CPI are notable events to follow.
In the Euro Zone, CPI, Core CPI and GDP are released all together at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. CPI and Core CPI are remarkable events to watch.

On Friday (Aug 15th) we have the following events to watch:

In Canada, manufacturing Shipments (Previous 2.7%) is released at 12:30 GMT.
In the U.S. These remarkable events such as Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Net Long -Term Transactions (Previous 67.0B), Industrial Production, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment are released. The events would generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors.

Published on Mon, Aug 11 2008, 08:14 GMT

Fishing In Troubled Waters

Fri, Aug 8 2008, 12:56 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Next week several explosive events are lined up. We can not afford to miss any of them. Alright! Let's review them all!

On Sunday (Aug 10th) we have the following events to watch:

There is no significant event on Sunday.

On Monday (Aug 11th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, RBA Monetary Policy Statement is released at 01:30 GMT. Be aware of AUD/USD traders.
In the U.K. PPI Input, PPI Output. Trade Balance and RBC Retail Sales Monitor are remarkable events to monitor.

On Tuesday (Aug 12th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, NAB Business Confidence (Previous -9) should be taken into account.
In Japan, Industrial Production and Household Confidence (Previous 32..6) are notable events to follow.
In the U.K. CPI, Core CPI, and RPI are notable events to watch.
In Canada, Trade Balance is to be taken into account.
In the U.S. Trade Balance is released at 12:30 GMT.
In New Zealand, PPI Input (Previous 2.3%) and PPI Output (Previous 1.8%) are released at 22:45 GMT.
In Japan, GDP and Current Account (Previous 2.03T) are important events to monitor.

On Wednesday (Aug 13th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, WMI Consumer Sentiment (Previous -6.7% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In the UK, Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate are remarkable events to follow.
In the Euro Zone, Industrial Production (Previous -1.9%) is to be taken into account.
In the U.K. BoE Inflation Report is released at 09:30 GMT.
In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Previous -0.2%) is scheduled at 23:50 GMT.

On Thursday (Aug 14th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In New Zealand, Business Manufacturing Index is released at 00:00 GMT. Later on, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are scheduled at 22:45 GMT.
In Switzerland, Consumer Climate (Previous 2) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In Germany, GDP and CPI are notable events to follow.
In the Euro Zone, CPI, Core CPI and GDP are released all together at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. CPI and Core CPI are remarkable events to watch.

On Friday (Aug 15th) we have the following events to watch:

In Canada, manufacturing Shipments (Previous 2.7%) is released at 12:30 GMT.
In the U.S. These remarkable events such as Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Net Long -Term Transactions (Previous 67.0B), Industrial Production, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment are released. The events would generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors.

Published on Fri, Aug 8 2008, 12:56 GMT

Another gloomy week in Europe

Mon, Aug 4 2008, 09:40 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

This week we have continued watching signs of stagflation in The Euro Area, with Consumer Prices growing at 3.3% annual pace in Germany and the advanced CPI in the Eurozone reaching 4.1% year on year, the highest level since records are taken. At the same time, manufacturing activity has failed to grow in the Unitred Kingdom and the Euro Area for second consecutive month and what is wrth has contracred even faster than in June, while German manufacturing activity has grown at a pace close to contraction.

In the United States, indicattors have been mixed, while GDP seems to have grown much faster than in the first qarter, and the consumer confidence seems to pick up mildly, although employment continues declining, unemployment rate has hit tha four year high, and non farm payrolls have declined for seventh consecutive month.

Nex week we have a handful of indicators ahead, theattention will be on the monetary policy decisions by the ECB, BoE and US Federal Reserve.

On Sunday (Aug 3rd) we have the following events to watch:

The week’s economic agenda will open in New Zeland with the 2nd Q labor Cost Index (Previous: 0.7%)

On Monday (Aug 4th) we have the following events to watch:

The first indicator of the day will be Australian House Prices Index for the 2Q (Previous: 1.1% QoQ; 13.8% YoY)
In Switzerland, figures for July’s SVME PMI will be out (Previous: 54.9)
In the Euro Area, the indicator of the day will be June’s PPI (Previous: 1.2% MoM; 7.1% YoY)
In the United States it will be a busy day, with the Core PCE prices Index (Previous: 0.1% MoM; 2.1% YoY) at the same time we will know the figuras for the Personal Income (Previous: 1.9%) and Personal Spending (Previous: 0.8%)
The US econiomic calendar will end with June’s Factory Orders (Previous: 0.6%)

On Tuesday (Aug 5th) we have the following events to watch:

The day will start in Australia with the RBA’s interest rate decision (Actual: 7.25%)
At an indeterminate time, in the UK July’s Halifax House Prices will be released (Previous: -2% MoM; -6.1% YoY)
In the Euro Zone the revised Services PMI will be out (Previous: 49.1%)
In the UK we will Know the figures for June’s manufacturing production (Previous: -0.5% MoM; -0.8% YoY) and industrial production (Previous: -0.5 MoM; -1.6% YoY).
Euro Zone’s June Retail Sales will follow (Previous: 1.2% MoM; 0.2% YoY)
The event of the day will be the Federal Reserve´s monetary policy decision (Actual: 2%)
Uk’s July Nationwide Consumer Confidence will seal off the day’s agenda (Previous: 63).

On Wednesday (Aug 6th) we have the following events to watch:

The daily economic agenda will start with Japan’s ptreliminary leading index for June (Previous: 92.9)
In the UK the focus will be set on July’s BRC shop prices index (Previous: 2.5%)
The most important event for the Euro Zone will be German June factory orders (Previous: -0.9% MoM; -2% YoY)
In Canada, the Ivey PMI for July (Previous: 69.6)
Finally, New Zeland’s second quarter’s Unempoyment rate (Previous: 3.6%).

On Thursday (Aug 7th) we have the following events to watch:

Australia will open Thursday’s economic agenda, with July’s unemployment rate (Previous: 4.2%)
In Germany we will know the figures of June’s Trade Balance (Previous: 14.4B)
Also in Germany june’s Industrial Production will be published (Previous: -2.4% MoM; 0.8% YoY)
Later on The Bank of England will release its monetary policy decision (Actual: 5%)
The ECB will publish its monetary policy decision somewhat later (Actual: 4.25%)
Afterwards Triche will give a conference explaining the monetary policy decision.
In the US we will know june’s pending home sales (Previous: -4.7%)
The last event of the day will be US June’s connsumer credit (Previous: 7.78B)

On Friday (Aug 8th) we have the following events to watch:

Swiss unemployment rate for July will open the day’s agenda (Previous: 2.3% s.a.)
In the american timeframe we will know Canadian July’s unemployment rate (Previous: 6.2%)

Published on Mon, Aug 4 2008, 09:40 GMT

Another gloomy week in Europe

Fri, Aug 1 2008, 13:03 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

Nex week we have a handful of indicators ahead, theattention will be on the monetary policy decisions by the ECB, BoE and US Federal Reserve.

On Sunday (Aug 3rd) we have the following events to watch:

The week’s economic agenda will open in New Zeland with the 2nd Q labor Cost Index (Previous: 0.7%)

On Monday (Aug 4th) we have the following events to watch:

The first indicator of the day will be Australian House Prices Index for the 2Q (Previous: 1.1% QoQ; 13.8% YoY)
In Switzerland, figures for July’s SVME PMI will be out (Previous: 54.9)
In the Euro Area, the indicator of the day will be June’s PPI (Previous: 1.2% MoM; 7.1% YoY)
In the United States it will be a busy day, with the Core PCE prices Index (Previous: 0.1% MoM; 2.1% YoY) at the same time we will know the figuras for the Personal Income (Previous: 1.9%) and Personal Spending (Previous: 0.8%)
The US econiomic calendar will end with June’s Factory Orders (Previous: 0.6%)

On Tuesday (Aug 5th) we have the following events to watch:

The day will start in Australia with the RBA’s interest rate decision (Actual: 7.25%)
At an indeterminate time, in the UK July’s Halifax House Prices will be released (Previous: -2% MoM; -6.1% YoY)
In the Euro Zone the revised Services PMI will be out (Previous: 49.1%)
In the UK we will Know the figures for June’s manufacturing production (Previous: -0.5% MoM; -0.8% YoY) and industrial production (Previous: -0.5 MoM; -1.6% YoY).
Euro Zone’s June Retail Sales will follow (Previous: 1.2% MoM; 0.2% YoY)
The event of the day will be the Federal Reserve´s monetary policy decision (Actual: 2%)
Uk’s July Nationwide Consumer Confidence will seal off the day’s agenda (Previous: 63).

On Wednesday (Aug 6th) we have the following events to watch:

The daily economic agenda will start with Japan’s ptreliminary leading index for June (Previous: 92.9)
In the UK the focus will be set on July’s BRC shop prices index (Previous: 2.5%)
The most important event for the Euro Zone will be German June factory orders (Previous: -0.9% MoM; -2% YoY)
In Canada, the Ivey PMI for July (Previous: 69.6)
Finally, New Zeland’s second quarter’s Unempoyment rate (Previous: 3.6%).

On Thursday (Aug 7th) we have the following events to watch:

Australia will open Thursday’s economic agenda, with July’s unemployment rate (Previous: 4.2%)
In Germany we will know the figures of June’s Trade Balance (Previous: 14.4B)
Also in Germany june’s Industrial Production will be published (Previous: -2.4% MoM; 0.8% YoY)
Later on The Bank of England will release its monetary policy decision (Actual: 5%)
The ECB will publish its monetary policy decision somewhat later (Actual: 4.25%)
Afterwards Triche will give a conference explaining the monetary policy decision.
In the US we will know june’s pending home sales (Previous: -4.7%)
The last event of the day will be US June’s connsumer credit (Previous: 7.78B)

On Friday (Aug 8th) we have the following events to watch:

Swiss unemployment rate for July will open the day’s agenda (Previous: 2.3% s.a.)
In the american timeframe we will know Canadian July’s unemployment rate (Previous: 6.2%)

Published on Fri, Aug 1 2008, 13:03 GMT

Further economic slowdown in Europe

Mon, Jul 28 2008, 07:49 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

The week we leave behind has given us aniother share of negative data, starting with the Bank of England’s minutes, depicting an scenario of strong inflation combined with weak economic growth, and plummetting home prices. A picture well confirmed by the Economic slowdown shown in the preliminary estimates for the second quarter, and June’s retail sales, which posted the larges drop since records are taken, back in 1986.

Business climate in Germany continued decliniing and retail sales have posted in the United Kingdom the largest monthly decline since records are taken in 1986. Eurozone’s Industrial new orders hacve shown decline in most sectors, and the preliminary PMI indexes of both services and manufactured sectors have shown levels of contraction

In the United Statetes we have seen mixed indicators, while employment indicators continiue weakening, the Unicversity of Michigan consumer sentiment index has strengthened considerably and new home sales decline has not been as sharp as expected.

Next week we have a handful of indicators ahead, whith special atention on July’s US non farm payrolls and USD GDP annualized for the second quarter.

On Sunday (July 27th) we have the following events to watch:

The week’s economic agenda will open in New Zeland with the Trade of Balance of June (Previous: -196 M)

On Monday (July 28th) we have the following events to watch:

The first indicator in the Euro Area will bee German GfK Consumer confidence survey for August (Previous: 3.9) Gert ready for a weak reading.
In New Zeland, Building permits for June will be released (Previous: -42.3%)
In Japan, we will know June’s Household spending (Previous: -3.2% YoY)
Lastly, Japanese retail trade for June will seal off the day (Previous: -0.2% MoM; 0.2% YoY)

On Tuesday (July 29th) we have the following events to watch:

Tuesday will open with Germany’s preliminary CPI for July (Previous: 3.3%)
Later, in Switzerland, June’s UBS Consumption Indicaor will be released (Previous: 1.91)
In the UK the Confederation of British Industry will publish July’s Distributive Trade Survey (Previous: -9)
In the US the event of the day will be July’s Consumer Confidence (Previous: 50.4)

On Wednesday (July 30th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, at a indefinite time June’s reatil sales will published (Previous: 1.3% MoM; 0.7% YoY)
In the Euro Area, the atention will be in July’s consumer confidence (Previous: -17).
In Switzerland, the KOF institute will release the figures of July’s leading index (Previous: 1.01)
In the US timeframe July’s ADP Non Farm Employment Change will be released (Previous: -79K)
In the UK, June’s GfK consumer confidence will be the last event of the day (Previous: -34).

On Thursday (July 31th) we have the following events to watch:

Australia will open Thursday economic agenda, with July’s Trade balance (Previous: -965M) and with June’s retail sales (Previous: 0.7%)
Later on we will know Switzerland’s June’s CPI (Previous: 0.2% MoM; 2.9% YoY).
In Germany, the ILO unemployment rate will be released (Previous: 7.4%).
In The Eurozone, Eurostat will publish the advanced estimation of July’s CPI (Previous: 4.0% )
At the same time Eurozone’s Unemployment rate for June will be released (Previous: 7.2%)
In Canada, the event of the day will be June’s Gross Domestic Product (Previous: 0.4%)
In the EE.UU. we will see the release of the GDP Annualized for the second quarter (Previous: 1.0%), the Gross Domestic Purchases Prices Index (Previous: 3.6%) and the Personal consumption expenditure (Previous: 1.1%)

On Friday (August 1st) we have the following events to watch:

The first indicator of the day will be German July’s manufacturing PMI (Previous: 52.6)
In the UK July’s Manufacturing PMI will be released afterwards (Previous: 45.8)
In the US, as every first Friday of the month, we will know the figures for July’s Non-farm Payrolls (Previous: -62K), and the Unemployment Rate (Previous: 5.5%).

Published on Mon, Jul 28 2008, 07:49 GMT

Further economic slowdown in Europe

Fri, Jul 25 2008, 14:33 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

Next week we have a handful of indicators ahead, whith special atention on July’s US non farm payrolls and USD GDP annualized for the second quarter.

On Sunday (July 27th) we have the following events to watch:

The week’s economic agenda will open in New Zeland with the Trade of Balance of June (Previous: -196 M)

On Monday (July 28th) we have the following events to watch:

The first indicator in the Euro Area will bee German GfK Consumer confidence survey for August (Previous: 3.9) Gert ready for a weak reading.
In New Zeland, Building permits for June will be released (Previous: -42.3%)
In Japan, we will know June’s Household spending (Previous: -3.2% YoY)
Lastly, Japanese retail trade for June will seal off the day (Previous: -0.2% MoM; 0.2% YoY)

On Tuesday (July 29th) we have the following events to watch:

Tuesday will open with Germany’s preliminary CPI for July (Previous: 3.3%)
Later, in Switzerland, June’s UBS Consumption Indicaor will be released (Previous: 1.91)
In the UK the Confederation of British Industry will publish July’s Distributive Trade Survey (Previous: -9)
In the US the event of the day will be July’s Consumer Confidence (Previous: 50.4)

On Wednesday (July 30th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, at a indefinite time June’s reatil sales will published (Previous: 1.3% MoM; 0.7% YoY)
In the Euro Area, the atention will be in July’s consumer confidence (Previous: -17).
In Switzerland, the KOF institute will release the figures of July’s leading index (Previous: 1.01)
In the US timeframe July’s ADP Non Farm Employment Change will be released (Previous: -79K)
In the UK, June’s GfK consumer confidence will be the last event of the day (Previous: -34).

On Thursday (July 31th) we have the following events to watch:

Australia will open Thursday economic agenda, with July’s Trade balance (Previous: -965M) and with June’s retail sales (Previous: 0.7%)
Later on we will know Switzerland’s June’s CPI (Previous: 0.2% MoM; 2.9% YoY).
In Germany, the ILO unemployment rate will be released (Previous: 7.4%).
In The Eurozone, Eurostat will publish the advanced estimation of July’s CPI (Previous: 4.0% )
At the same time Eurozone’s Unemployment rate for June will be released (Previous: 7.2%)
In Canada, the event of the day will be June’s Gross Domestic Product (Previous: 0.4%)
In the EE.UU. we will see the release of the GDP Annualized for the second quarter (Previous: 1.0%), the Gross Domestic Purchases Prices Index (Previous: 3.6%) and the Personal consumption expenditure (Previous: 1.1%)

On Friday (August 1st) we have the following events to watch:

The first indicator of the day will be German July’s manufacturing PMI (Previous: 52.6)
In the UK July’s Manufacturing PMI will be released afterwards (Previous: 45.8)
In the US, as every first Friday of the month, we will know the figures for July’s Non-farm Payrolls (Previous: -62K), and the Unemployment Rate (Previous: 5.5%).

Published on Fri, Jul 25 2008, 14:33 GMT

New high for the Euro; the credit crisis still present

Mon, Jul 21 2008, 07:08 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

We just ended a week with several remarkable happenings and high volatility on the markets. The week began with the Fed and the US Treasury coming to rescue Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, boosting its credit line with the government sponsiored enterprises, a plan which could ease somewhat concerns about the US finantial and housing sector.

Later on the Euro reached a fresh all time high against the Dollar at 1.6037 before declining for two consecutive days.

Oil reached a new record at 147 Dollars per barrel and slided afterwards for three days so far to levels below 130 Dollars a move that has prompted analysts to talt about a possible peak for cruce prices. Together with the oil price drop, the US Dollar has been appreciating against most majors.

In the macroeconomical agenda the week has given more reasosn for concern, starting with the sharp drop in German economic confidence, as the ZEW index dropped to a record low last Tuesday. In the US we have seen consumer inflation rising at 5% year on year pace, the fastest seen since 1982. In the positive side, US housing starts bounced up yesterday stronger than expected, and so did construction permits. Could this be the starting point for a recovery in the housing market?

This week we have several important events, let’s go over them.

On Sunday (July 20th) we have the following events to watch:

The week’s economic agnda will open in the United Kingdom with the Rightmove House Prices Index (Previous: -1.2% MoM)

On Monday (July 21th) we have the following events to watch:

InAustralia the event of the day will be Producer´s Prices Index (Prev: 1.9% QoQ/ 4.8% YoY).
In the American timeframe the Conference Board’s Leading Index will be released (Previous: 0.1%).
Lastly, in Japan we will see the figures for the All Industries Activity Index (Previous: 0.8%)

On Tuesday (July 22th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, the Trade Balance will open the day (Previous: CHF 1.87B).
Later on, in Canada the figures for May’s Retail sales will be released (Previous: 0.6%; Ex autos: 1.1%).

On Wednesday (July 23th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, th “nd Quarter’s CPI will open the day n(Previous: 1.3% QoQ/ 4.2% YoY).
During the European session, the Bank of England will publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting.
In Canada, the Consumer Prices Index will be the day’s event (Previous: 2.2% YoY) and the Core CPI (Previous: 1.5% YoY).
In the US, the Federal reserve will publish tthe Beige Book.
In New Zeland, the Reserve Bank of New Zeland’s Monetary Policy Committee will approve its Official Cash Rate (Actual: 8.25%).
In Japan, the release of June’s Merchandise trade Balance will seal off the day’s agenda (Previous: 642.3B Adjust./ 365.6B Total)

On Thursday (July 24th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, the event of the day will be the Ifo Busines Climate Index (Previous: 101.3) and the Expectations Index (Previous: 94.7).
In The Euro Zone, May’s Current Account will be released (Previous: -9.2B n.s.a./ -0.3B s.a.)
In the UK, the indicator of the day will be June’s retail sales (Previous: 3.5% MoM/ 8.1% YoY).
In the US, the Commerce Department will release June’s Existing Home Sales (Previous: 4.99M annual rate).
In Japan, the National CPI (Previous: 1.3% YoY/ Ex Food & Energy: -0.1% YoY) and the Tokio CPI (Previous: 1.5% YoY/ Ex Food & Energy: 0.3% YoY) will close the day’s agenda.

On Friday (July 25th) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, preliminary figures for the Gross Domestic Product will be released (Previous: 0.3% QoQ/ 2.3% YoY).
In the US the day will start with the release ogf the Durable Goods Orders (Previous 0%; ex-transportation: -0.9%).
Later on, also in the US the New Home Sales will be released (Previous: 512K annual rate).
In the US, The Reuters/ Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will bee the last event of the week (Previous: 56.4).

Published on Mon, Jul 21 2008, 07:08 GMT

New high for the Euro; the credit crisis still present

Fri, Jul 18 2008, 13:25 GMT
by Guillermo Alcalá

FXstreet.com

Later on the Euro reached a fresh all time high against the Dollar at 1.6037 before declining for two consecutive days.

This week we have several important events, let’s go over them.

On Sunday (July 20th) we have the following events to watch:

The week’s economic agnda will open in the United Kingdom with the Rightmove House Prices Index (Previous: -1.2% MoM)

On Monday (July 21th) we have the following events to watch:

InAustralia the event of the day will be Producer´s Prices Index (Prev: 1.9% QoQ/ 4.8% YoY).
In the American timeframe the Conference Board’s Leading Index will be released (Previous: 0.1%).
Lastly, in Japan we will see the figures for the All Industries Activity Index (Previous: 0.8%)

On Tuesday (July 22th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, the Trade Balance will open the day (Previous: CHF 1.87B).
Later on, in Canada the figures for May’s Retail sales will be released (Previous: 0.6%; Ex autos: 1.1%).

On Wednesday (July 23th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, th “nd Quarter’s CPI will open the day n(Previous: 1.3% QoQ/ 4.2% YoY).
During the European session, the Bank of England will publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting.
In Canada, the Consumer Prices Index will be the day’s event (Previous: 2.2% YoY) and the Core CPI (Previous: 1.5% YoY).
In the US, the Federal reserve will publish tthe Beige Book.
In New Zeland, the Reserve Bank of New Zeland’s Monetary Policy Committee will approve its Official Cash Rate (Actual: 8.25%).
In Japan, the release of June’s Merchandise trade Balance will seal off the day’s agenda (Previous: 642.3B Adjust./ 365.6B Total)

On Thursday (July 24th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, the event of the day will be the Ifo Busines Climate Index (Previous: 101.3) and the Expectations Index (Previous: 94.7).
In The Euro Zone, May’s Current Account will be released (Previous: -9.2B n.s.a./ -0.3B s.a.)
In the UK, the indicator of the day will be June’s retail sales (Previous: 3.5% MoM/ 8.1% YoY).
In the US, the Commerce Department will release June’s Existing Home Sales (Previous: 4.99M annual rate).
In Japan, the National CPI (Previous: 1.3% YoY/ Ex Food & Energy: -0.1% YoY) and the Tokio CPI (Previous: 1.5% YoY/ Ex Food & Energy: 0.3% YoY) will close the day’s agenda.

On Friday (July 25th) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, preliminary figures for the Gross Domestic Product will be released (Previous: 0.3% QoQ/ 2.3% YoY).
In the US the day will start with the release ogf the Durable Goods Orders (Previous 0%; ex-transportation: -0.9%).
Later on, also in the US the New Home Sales will be released (Previous: 512K annual rate).
In the US, The Reuters/ Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will bee the last event of the week (Previous: 56.4).

Published on Fri, Jul 18 2008, 13:25 GMT

The Market Is At The Mercy of Oil Prices

Mon, Jul 14 2008, 07:22 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Paulson said stabilization of the financial system would require some more time while the Fed Chairman Bernanke emphasized that financial turmoil was an ongoing issue. Dovish comments from the 2 authorities dragged down the USD. Also,the recent restless oil prices have had a large impact on the USD. WTI oil prices have hit a fresh record-high above $146.00 a barrel. The global economy faces a challenging situation.

The week has several significant events. On schedule we have the central banks' interest rate decisions, CPIs from major countries, and FOMC meeting Minutes. We shall keep paying close attention to the markets. Okay! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (July 13th) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are released at 22:45 GMT:
There is no further event on Sunday.

On Monday (July 14th) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro Zone, Industrial production (Previous 0.9%) is to be taken into account.
In New Zealand, Consumer price Index (Previous 0.7%) and Food Index are released at 22:45 GMT.
In the U.K. RICS House Price Index (Previous -92.9%) BRC Retail Sales Monitor are scheduled at 23:01 GMT.

On Tuesday (July 15th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current 0.50%) is to be taken into account. Let's see how the BoJ considers the recent Japanese economic situation.
In the U.K. CPI, Core CPI, PPI Input and PPI Output are notable events to watch.
In Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -52.4) is an important event to monitor.
In the Euro Zone, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -52.7) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. These remarkable events such as Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, PPI, Core PPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index (Previous -8.7) are released all together at 12:30 GMT. The events would generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors.
In Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision (Current 3.00%) is announced at 13:00 GMT. Be aware CAD traders.

On Wednesday (July 16th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, WMI Leading Index (Previous 0.4% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Germany, CPI (Previous 0.6%) is notable event to follow.
In Switzerland, Retail Sales is released at 07:15 GMT.
In the UK, Average Earnings Index (Previous 3.8%9 and Unemployment Rate are remarkable events to follow.
In the Euro Zone, CPI and Core CPI (Previous 1.7%) are released at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. CPI, Core CPI, and Crude Oil Inventories are notable events to monitor. Later on, FOMC meeting Minutes of the last meeting are released at 18:00 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the Fed has. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the Fed against the major currencies.

On Thursday (July 17th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, ZEW Expectations (Previous -63.8) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, Housing Starts (Previous 975K) and Building Permits (Previous 969K) are released at 12:30 GMT. Later at 14:00 GMT, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Previous -17.1) is a remarkable event to watch.
In Japan, the BoJ Minutes of the last meeting are released at 23:50 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the BoJ has.

On Friday (July 18th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Import Price Index (Previous 2.7%) is an event to watch.
In Germany, Producer Price Index is scheduled at 06:00 GMT.
In the Euro Zone, Trade Balance is released at 09:00 GMT.
In Canada, Leading Indicators (Previous 0.2%) is an event to monitor.

Published on Mon, Jul 14 2008, 07:22 GMT

The Market Is At The Mercy of Oil Prices

Fri, Jul 11 2008, 14:16 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

On Sunday (July 13th) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are released at 22:45 GMT:
There is no further event on Sunday.

On Monday (July 14th) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro Zone, Industrial production (Previous 0.9%) is to be taken into account.
In New Zealand, Consumer price Index (Previous 0.7%) and Food Index are released at 22:45 GMT.
In the U.K. RICS House Price Index (Previous -92.9%) BRC Retail Sales Monitor are scheduled at 23:01 GMT.

On Tuesday (July 15th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Current 0.50%) is to be taken into account. Let's see how the BoJ considers the recent Japanese economic situation.
In the U.K. CPI, Core CPI, PPI Input and PPI Output are notable events to watch.
In Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -52.4) is an important event to monitor.
In the Euro Zone, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -52.7) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. These remarkable events such as Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, PPI, Core PPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index (Previous -8.7) are released all together at 12:30 GMT. The events would generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors.
In Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision (Current 3.00%) is announced at 13:00 GMT. Be aware CAD traders.

On Wednesday (July 16th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, WMI Leading Index (Previous 0.4% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Germany, CPI (Previous 0.6%) is notable event to follow.
In Switzerland, Retail Sales is released at 07:15 GMT.
In the UK, Average Earnings Index (Previous 3.8%9 and Unemployment Rate are remarkable events to follow.
In the Euro Zone, CPI and Core CPI (Previous 1.7%) are released at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. CPI, Core CPI, and Crude Oil Inventories are notable events to monitor. Later on, FOMC meeting Minutes of the last meeting are released at 18:00 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the Fed has. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the Fed against the major currencies.

On Thursday (July 17th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, ZEW Expectations (Previous -63.8) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, Housing Starts (Previous 975K) and Building Permits (Previous 969K) are released at 12:30 GMT. Later at 14:00 GMT, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Previous -17.1) is a remarkable event to watch.
In Japan, the BoJ Minutes of the last meeting are released at 23:50 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the BoJ has.

On Friday (July 18th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Import Price Index (Previous 2.7%) is an event to watch.
In Germany, Producer Price Index is scheduled at 06:00 GMT.
In the Euro Zone, Trade Balance is released at 09:00 GMT.
In Canada, Leading Indicators (Previous 0.2%) is an event to monitor.

Published on Fri, Jul 11 2008, 14:16 GMT

One just has to wonder

Mon, Jul 7 2008, 07:30 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

On July 3rd, the European Central Bank decided to hike the rates by 25bps to 4.25% as might have been widely expected. The ECB's stance was accepted as neutral,or slightly negative that further rate hike would not be considered in the near future. In recent high liquidity markets the EUR/USD immediately reacted by falling sharply over 200 pips. At the same time “the USD vs the low yields” surprised us, especially the USD/CHF that showed a rocket spike. It was almost 300 pips-up, making the weekly hight at 1.0283. The USD has gained against the other majors though, we could be nothing to get smiley about the outcome. The risks for the U.S. economy remain tilted to further weakness. We have seen these in fundamental such as ADP employment (actual -79K vs forecast -20K), the big NFP (actual -62K vs forecast -54K), unemployment rate (actual 5.5% vs forecast 5.4%) and ISM non-manufacturing (actual 48.2 vs forecast 51.3).

We keep on paying close attention to the markets during the week (July 6th to July 11th ), especially the majors and the JPY crosses. It is worth noting that the BoE interest rate decision is scheduled on Thursday July 10. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (July 6th) we have the following events to watch:

There is no significant event on Sunday

On Monday (July 7th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate (Previous 2.5%) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In the U.K. Industrial Production (Previous 0.2%) and NIESR GDP (Previous 0.2%) are events to monitor.
In Germany, Industrial Production (Previous -0.8%) is released at 10:00GMT.
In New Zealand, NZIER Business Confidence (Previous -64) is scheduled at 22:00 GMT

On Tuesday (July 8th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, NAB Business Confidence (Previous -4) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In the U.S. Pending Home Sales (Previous 6.3%) and Consumer Credit (Previous 8.9B) are events to watch.
In the U.K. Consumer Confidence (Previous 69) is released at 23:01 GMT.

On Wednesday (July 9th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia,WMI Consumer Sentiment (Previous -5.6%) is an event to monitor.
In Germany, Trade Balance (Previous 18.7B) is a notable event to follow.
In the U.K. Trade Balance (Previous -7.6B) and BRC Shop Price Index (Previous -1.8%) are notable events to watch.
In Japan, Current Account (Previous 1.51T) is an event to be taken into account.

On Thursday (July 10th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.3%) is an important event to follow.
In the U.K. the BoE Interest Rate Decision (Current 5.00%) is to be taken into account. Its release is at 11:00 GMT. Please keep eyes open for how the BoE considers the current value of the GBP and the inflationary pressure in the U.K.

On Friday (July 11th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Industrial Production (Previous 2.9%) and Household Confidence ( Previous 34.1) are events to monitor.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1%) and Trade Balance (Previous 5.1B) are important events to follow.
In the U.S. Trade Balance (Previous -58.2B), Import Price Index (Previous 2.3%), and Michigan Sentiment (Previous 56.4) are remarkable events to watch.

Published on Mon, Jul 7 2008, 07:30 GMT

One just has to wonder

Fri, Jul 4 2008, 09:50 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

On Sunday (July 6th) we have the following events to watch:

There is no significant event on Sunday

On Monday (July 7th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate (Previous 2.5%) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In the U.K. Industrial Production (Previous 0.2%) and NIESR GDP (Previous 0.2%) are events to monitor.
In Germany, Industrial Production (Previous -0.8%) is released at 10:00GMT.
In New Zealand, NZIER Business Confidence (Previous -64) is scheduled at 22:00 GMT

On Tuesday (July 8th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, NAB Business Confidence (Previous -4) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In the U.S. Pending Home Sales (Previous 6.3%) and Consumer Credit (Previous 8.9B) are events to watch.
In the U.K. Consumer Confidence (Previous 69) is released at 23:01 GMT.

On Wednesday (July 9th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia,WMI Consumer Sentiment (Previous -5.6%) is an event to monitor.
In Germany, Trade Balance (Previous 18.7B) is a notable event to follow.
In the U.K. Trade Balance (Previous -7.6B) and BRC Shop Price Index (Previous -1.8%) are notable events to watch.
In Japan, Current Account (Previous 1.51T) is an event to be taken into account.

On Thursday (July 10th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.3%) is an important event to follow.
In the U.K. the BoE Interest Rate Decision (Current 5.00%) is to be taken into account. Its release is at 11:00 GMT. Please keep eyes open for how the BoE considers the current value of the GBP and the inflationary pressure in the U.K.

On Friday (July 11th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Industrial Production (Previous 2.9%) and Household Confidence ( Previous 34.1) are events to monitor.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1%) and Trade Balance (Previous 5.1B) are important events to follow.
In the U.S. Trade Balance (Previous -58.2B), Import Price Index (Previous 2.3%), and Michigan Sentiment (Previous 56.4) are remarkable events to watch.

Published on Fri, Jul 4 2008, 09:50 GMT

Pressure on the USD

Fri, Jun 27 2008, 10:37 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

On Wednesday, June 25, the Fed decided to hold the ongoing interest rate at 2.00% as expeceted. Despite the fact that Fed's stance on economic outlook is considered as neutral, keeping an eye open on inflation and growth, we have been seeing strong selling pressure on the USD against the other majors. The ERU/USD has moved up over 200 pips, currently 30 pips below the dynamic resistance at 158.00 (June 27), while the USD/JPY has smashed down 200 pips (currently the pair is hovering just above the dynamic support at 106.00).

The JPY crosses are increasingly active, especially the EUR/JPY that hit a remarkable high at 169.46. We should watch out the Yen-carry trade.

This week (June 29 to July 4) does have many explosive events. On schedule , we have the central banks' interest rate decisions, ISM manufacturing index, the big nonfarm payrolls, Euro zone retail sales, and U.S. factory orders. We keep on paying extra attention to the markets. Alright. Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Jun 29th) we have the following events to watch:

In the U.K. Consumer Confidence (Previous -29) is released at 23:01 GMT.
In Japan, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 47.7) is an event to monitor.
On Monday (Jun 30th) we have the following events to watch:
In New Zealand, Business Confidence (previous -49.7) is scheduled at 03:00 GMT.
In Germany, Retail Sales (Previous -1.7%) is a notable event to follow.
In the U.K. Mortgage Approvals (Previous 58K) is released at 08:30 GMT.
In the Euro zone, Consumer Price Index (Previous 3.7%) is an important event to watch.
In Canada, Gross Domestic Product (Previous -0.2%) should be taken into account. Be aware USD/CAD tradaers.
In the U.S. Chicago PMI (Previous 49.1) is a remarkable event to watch.
In Australia, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 51.2) is released at 23:30 GMT. The Index is expected to generate low volatility for the AUD.
In Japan, Tankan large manufacturing Index (Previous 11) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Tuesday (Jul 1st) Focus on the ISM Manufacturing Index

In Australia, the RBA Intersest Rate Announcement (Current 7.25%) is scheduled at 04:30 GMT. The markets exptect “unchanged”. Be aware AUD/USD traders.
In the U.K, Nationwide House Price Index (Previous -2.5%) is to be taken into account.
In Australia, Index of Commodity Prices (Previous 28.6%) is an event to monitor.
In Switzerland, SVME PMI (Previous 55.7) is released at 07:30 GMT.
In Germany, Unemployment Change (Previous 4K) is a notable event to follow.
In the U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Previous 50.0) is a notable event to follow.
In the Euro-Zone, Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.1%) is scheduled at 09:00 GMT.
In the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (Previous 49.6) is a remarkable event to watch.
The Index considered as an early indicator for the nonfarm payrolls is one of the biggest economic events that could generate high volatility for the USD.

On Wednesday (Jul 2nd) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Retail Sales (Previous -0.2%) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In Euro zone, Manufacturing PMI and producer Price Index (Previous 0.8%) are to be taken into consideration.
In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Previous 40K) is a remarkable event to follow. This event could serve as an indiator for the big nonfarm payrolls as well. In addtion, Factory Orders (Previous 1.1%) is released at 14:00 GMT.

On Thursday (Jul 3rd) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Trade Balance (Previous -1.0B) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Price Index (Previous 1.0%) is released at 03:00 GMT.
In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.8 %) and SNB Monetary Policy Report are to taken into account.
In the UK, Halifax House Price Index (Previous -2.4%) is an event to monitor.
In Euro zone, Retail Sales (Previous -0.6%) is released at 09:00 GMT. Later on, the ECB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 4.00%) is announced at 11:45 GMT. The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers inflationary pressure in the Eurozone and the recent value of the EUR. The markets expect “rate hike”.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.5%), Non-Farm Payrolls (the NFP. Previous -49K), the Average Hourly Earnings (Previous 0.3%) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to generate excessive volatility for the USD against the other majors. All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.

On Friday (Jun 4th) Independence Day

In Japan, Leading Economic Index (Previous 92.8%) is an event to monitor.
In Germany, Factoruy Orders (Previous -1.8%) is an important event to monitor.

Published on Fri, Jun 27 2008, 10:37 GMT

High Liquidity

Fri, Jun 20 2008, 10:53 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Liquidity started to improve and we have been seeing high volatility in the markets. The Swiss National Bank decided to hold the ongoing interest rate at 2.75% on Thursday June 19. This unexpected action attacked on the CHF. The CHF was depreciated against the other majors. Interestingly, the CHF/JPY went down over 100 pips. At the same day, the U.K. retail sales surprised us. The much higer-than-expected date (actual 8.1% vs forecast 4.1%) pushed the Cable up over 200 pips. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (actual -17.1 vs forecast -11.4)indicated that the U.S. economy was still having a difficulty in pulling out of a recession.

Alright! We keep on bracing ourselves up during the week (June 22 to June 27). Please note that Fed rate decision is released on Wednesday, June 25. Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Jun 22nd) We have the following events to watch:

In the U.K. Rightmove House Price Index (Previous 1.2 %) is released at 23:01 GMT.

On Monday (Jun 23rd ) Keep your eyes open for the german Ifo data:

In Germany, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 53.6) and Ifo Business Climate Index (Previous 103.5) are remarkable events to watch.
In the Eurozone, Manufacturing PMI is scheduled at 08:00 GMT.

On Tuesday (Jun 24th) Richmond Fed Index is a key:

In the U.S. Consumer Price Index (Previous 57.2) and Richmond Fed Index (Previous -3) should be taken into account.
In Japan, Trade Balance (Previous 0.61 T) is an important event to watch.

On Wednesday (Jun 25th) The Fed interest rate decision:

In Germany, Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.6 %) and Consumer Confidence are notable events to follow.
In the U.K. Nationwide House Prices (Previous -2.5 %) and CBI Distributive Trades Realized (Previous -14) are tp be taken into account.
In the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Previous -0.5 %), Core Durable Good Orders (2.5%), and New Home Sales (Previous 526K) are remarkable events to watch.
Later on, the Fed Interest Rate Decision (Current 2.00 %) is announced at 18:15 GMT. We should keep eyes open on what action the Fed takes.

On Thursday (Jun 26th) U.S. Gross Domestic Product:

In Australia, Leading Index (Previous -0.4 %) is scheduled at 00:00 GMT.
In the U.S. GDP (Previous 0.9 %) and Existing Home Sales (Previous 4.89M) are remarkable events to monitor.
In New Zealand, Gross Domestic Product (Previous 1.0 %) is released at 22:45 GMT. Be aware NZD/USD traders.
In Japan, Core Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.9 %), Houesehold Confidence (Previous -2.7%), Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.0%), and Retail Sales (Previous 0.1 %) are is events to follow. All the events are released at 23:50 GMT

On Friday (Jun 27th) U.S. data might generate high volatility:

In the U.K. Gross Domestic Product (Previous 0.4 %) is a notable event to watch.
In Swisszearland, Leading Index is released at 09:30 GMT.
In the US, Personal Spending (Previous 0.2 %), Personal Income (Previous 0.2 %), and Core PCE (Previous 0.1 %) are remarkable events for the day. Also, Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be worth to watch. Core PCE is a significant indicator for inflationary trends. High volatility is expected.

Published on Fri, Jun 20 2008, 10:53 GMT

Recovering Too Fast?

Fri, Jun 13 2008, 10:48 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have seen the strong USD against the other majors. The USD/JPY challenged to get into the 108.00 region (300 pips up) while the EUR/USD fell over 400 pips down. The USD is recovering at a smacking pace.

High inflatonary pressure is seen in fundamentals. U.S. retail sales came out much higher than expectations. Likewise, U.K producer price index surpised us. The central banks do concern about it . The markets expect the soon or later they will take an action. (The ECB is expected to rise the rate in July. On the other hand, the Fed would do so in August.)

Let's keep our eyes open for the markets during the week (June15 to June 20) The week has several significant events. On schedule we have U.K. Retail sales. Their meeting minutes of the BoE and the BoJ, Canadian CPI and retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Okay! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (June 15th) we have the following events to watch:

There is no further events on Sunday.

On Monday (June 16th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Retail Sales (Previous 9.7%) is released at 07:15 GMT.
In the Eurozone, CPI (Previous 3.3%) and Core CPI (Previous 1.6%) are notable events to follow.
In the U.S. Empire Sate Business Condition Index (Previous -3.2) and NAHB Housing Market Index (Previous 19) are important events to monitor.
In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Previous 0.3%) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Tuesday (June 17th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Industrial Production (Previous 6.8%) is scheduled at 07:15 GMT.
In the UK, CPI (Previous 3.0%) and Core CPI (Previous 1.4%) are remarkable events to watch. These events are scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
In Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous -41.4) is a notable events to watch.
In the Eurozone, Trade Balance (Previous -2.4B) is scheduled at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, PPI (Previous 0.2%),Core PPI ( Previous 0.4% ), and Industrial Production (Previous -0.7%) are important events to monitor..
These events may generate a good deal of volatility for the USD against the other majors.
In Japan, the BoJ Minutes of the last meeting are released at 23:50 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the BoJ has.

On Wednesday (June 18th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, WMI Leading Index (Previous 0.2% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Germany, Import Price Index (Previous 0.9%) is an event to watch.
In the UK, the BoE Minutes of the last meeting are released at 8:30 GMT. We carefully watch what economic outlook the BoE has. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the GBP against the major currencies.
In Canada, Leading Indicators (Previous 0.1%) is an event to monitor.

On Thursday (June 19th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Switzerland, SNB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 2.75%) is scheduled at 08:00 GMT. Let's see what economic outlook the SNB has.
In the UK, Retail Sales (Previous -0.2%) is a notable event to watch.
In Canada, CPI (Previous 0.8%), Core CPI (Previous 0.3%), and Wholesale Sales (Previous 0.6%) are notable events to monitor.
In the US, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Previous -15.6) and Leading Index (Previous 0.1%) are to taken into account.

On Friday (June 20th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Producer Price Index (Previous 1.1%) is a notable event to watch.
In Switzerland, PPI (Previous 0.7%) is released at 07:15 GMT..
In Canada, Retail Sales (Previous 0.1%) and Core Retail Sales (Previous 0.0%) are notable events to monitor. Be aware USD/CAD traders.

Published on Fri, Jun 13 2008, 10:48 GMT

Inflation is a Keyword

Fri, Jun 6 2008, 15:10 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

On June 5th, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank decided to hold the rates unchanged at 5.00% and 4.00% respectively. The ECB president Trichect did emphasize high inflationary pressure in the Eurozone. Looking at the U.S economy, we have seen a steady recovery in fundamsuch as ISM manufacturing (actual 49.6 vs forecast 48.5) and ADP employment(actual 40K vs forecast -30K). The big NFP, however,had a negative impact on the USD. Bernanke showed a concern about inflationary pressure in the U.S. The Fed may shift its attitude to rise the interest rate soon.

We keep on paying close attention to the markets during the week (June 8th to June 13th ), especially indicators for inflation and purchasing power. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Sunday (June 8th) we have the following events to watch:

There is no significant event on Sunday

On Monday (June 9th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Leading Index (Previous 18.2%) is scheduled at 05.00 GMT
In Switzerland, Unemplyment Rate (Previous 2.6%) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In Germany, Trade Balance (Previous 16.7B) is a notable event to follow.
In the UK, Producer Price Index and BRC Retail Sales Monitor ( Previous -1.5% ) are remarkable events to watch.
In the U.S. Pending Home Sales (Previous -1.0%) is an event to follow.

On Tuesday (June 10th) we have the following events to watch:

In Austraila, NAB Business Confidence (Previous -8) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In the U.K. Industrial Production (Previous -0.5%) is an event to watch.
In Canada, Trade Balance (Previous 5.5B) and the BoC Interest Rate Decision (Current 3%) are remarkable events to follow.
In the U.S. Trade Balance (Previous -58.2B) is an importnat event to watch.
In the U.K. NIESR GDP (Previous 0.4%) is released at 23:01 GMT.
In Japan, GDP (Previous 0.8%) and Current Account (Previous 2.1T) are events to be taken into account.

On Wednesday (June 11th) we have the following events to watch:

In Austraila,WMI Consumer Sentiment (Previous 2.7%) is an event to monitor.
In the U.K. Trade Balance (Previous -7.4B) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.2%) are notable events to watch.
In Canada, New Housing Price Index ( Previous 0.2% ) is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
In U.S. Beige Book is a remarkable event to watch.

On Thursday (June 12th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.2%) is an important event to follow.
In the Euro-Zone, Industrial Production (Previous -0.2%) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, Retail Sales (Previous -0.2%) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 0.5% ) are reamarkable events, followed by Import Price Index ( Previous 1.8%) that may generate moderate volatility for the USD.
In New Zealand, both Retail Sales ( Previous -1.2% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous -0.5% ) are schedulded at 22:45 GMT.

On Friday (June 13th) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Desicion (Current 0.50%) is to be taken into account. Please keep eyes open for how the BoJ considers the current value of the JPY. Also, Industrial Production (Previous -0.3%) and Houesehold Confidence ( Previous 35.2) are events to minitor.
In Germany, Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.6%) is a notable event to watch.
In the U.S. Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.2%) and Core Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.1%), and Michigan Sentiment are remarkable events to watch.

Published on Fri, Jun 6 2008, 15:10 GMT

Keep your eyes open for the central banks' interest rate decisions and the big Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, May 30 2008, 14:46 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

This week does have several explosive events. On schedule , we have the central banks' interest rate decisions, followed by the RBA, the RBNZ, the BoE and the ECB. Furthermore, significant events are also released such as ISM manufacturing index, U.S. factory orders, and Eurozone retail sales, and Canadian unemployment rate and the big nonfarm payrolls.We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets. Alright. Let's review them all.

On Sunday (Jun 1st) Queen's Birthday in New Zealand.

In Australia, Manufacturing PMI (Previous 52.7) is released at 23:30 GMT. The Index is expected to generate low volatility for the AUD.

On Monday (Jun 2nd) Focus on the ISM Manufacturing Index

In Australia, Retail Sales (Previous 0.5% is released at 01:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, Gross Domestic Product (Previous 1.0%) scheduled at 05:45GMT.
In the U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Previous 51.0) is a notable event to follow.
In the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (Previous 48.6) is a remarkable event to watch.

The Index considered as an early indicator for the nonfarm payrolls is one of the biggest economic events that could generate high volatility for the USD.

On Tuesday (Jun 3rd) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, the RBA Intersest Rate Announcement (Current 7.25%) is scheduled at 04:30 GMT. The markets exptect “unchanged”. Be aware USD/AUD traders.
In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index (Previous 0.8 %) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In the Eurozone, GDP (Previous 0.7%) is an important event to watch.
In the U.S. Factory Orders (Previous 1.3%) is a notable event to monitor.
In the U.K, Consumer Confidence (Previous 70) is released at 23:01GMT.

On Wednesday (Jun 4th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, GDP (Previous 0.6 %) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Retail Sales (Previous -0.1 %) is an event to follow.
In New Zealand, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ( Current 8.25% ) is released at 20:00 GMT.

Be aware USD/NZD traders.

In the UK, BRC Shop Price Index ( Previous 1.2% ) is scheduled at 10:30 GMT.
In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Previous 10K) is a remarkable event to follow. This event could serve as an indiator for the big nonfarm payrolls as well.

On Thursday (Jun 5th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Trade Balance (Previous -2.7B) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate (Previous 2.6%) is an event to follow.
In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement (Current 5.00% , at 11:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement (Current 4.00%, at 11:45 GMT) are released in sequence.

The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers inflationary pressure in the Eurozone and the recent value of the EUR.

In Canada, Ivey PMI is released at 14:00 GMT.

On Friday (Jun 6th) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events

In Germany, Industrial Production (Previous -0.5%) is an important event to monitor.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate (Previous 6.1%) is a notable event to watch.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.0%), Non-Farm Payrolls (the NFP. Previous -20K), the Average Hourly Earnings (Previous 0.1%) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to generate excessive volatility for the USD against the other majors.

All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.

Published on Fri, May 30 2008, 14:46 GMT

Battered Markets

Fri, May 23 2008, 14:40 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have seen battered markets this week, and the mood seems still far away from over. The recent restless oil prices have had a large impact on Forex markets. WTI oil price has hit a fresh record-high at $135.09 a barrel on Thursday May 22, to decrease somewhat later on during the NY session.

As oil prices fell sharply, the USD got appreciated against other majors. The USD/JPY moved up over 100 pips. Looking at fundamentals, positive German Ifo Business climate supported the EUR (actual 103.5 vs forecast 102.0), while more positive US data, such as jobless claims, which came out better than expected (actual 365K vs forecast 370K), gave some breath to the USD. The EUR/USD found it difficult to break out the 1.5800 line (currently fluctuating in the 1.5700 region) during the week.

This week (May 25 to May 30) we will see several explosive events. We can not afford to miss any of them. Alright! Let's review them all.

Sunday May 25th: Starting with New Zealand’s event

In New Zealand, Trade Balance (Previous 0.26B) is released at 22:45 GMT. The economy heavily depends on the trade, therefore, it might generate moderate volatility on the currency. Be aware NZD traders.

Monday May 26th : London and NY sessions closed, keep eyes open for the market

There are no significant events on Monday.

Tuesday May 27th: Richmond Fed Index measures manufacturing activity

In Germany, Consumer Confidence, Gross Domestic Products (Previous 1.5%), and Import Price Index (Previous 0.4%) are notable events to watch.
In the US, New Home Sales (Previous 562K), Consumer Confidence (Previous 62.3), Richmond Fed Index (Previous 0) are remarkable events to follow. Richmond Fed Index gives an insight of the manufacturing industry in the Richmond Fed area. It is often used as a forward looking indicator of ISM data. This event might generate moderate volatility for the USD against the other majors.

Wednesday May 28th: Durable Goods Orders may generate a good deal of volatility

In Australia, WMI leading Index (Previous 0.0%) is released at 00:30 GMT.
In the UK, Nationwide Housing Prices (Previous -1.1%) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Consumer Price Index (Previous -0.2%) is a notable event to follow. German CPI clearly indicates inflationary pressure in the Eurozone. This event may generate moderate volatility
In the Eurozone, Current Account (Previous 4.3B) is released at 08:00 GMT.
In Japan, The BoJ Governor Shirakawa will have a press conference. We should keep an eye on how the BoJ will consider the recent value of the JPY against the USD. Later on, Retail Sales (Previous 1.0%) and Large Retailers' Sales (Previous 0.2%) are released at 23:50 GMT.
In the US, Durable Goods Orders (Previous -0.3 %) and Core Durable Goods Orders (Previous 1.5%) are the events to watch. These events sensitively affect the USD price action (high volatility is expected). A high reading is seen as positive while a low reading is seen as negative.

Thursday May 29th: Declining Gross Domestic Product in the US expected

In New Zealand, Business Conference (Previous -54.8) is an event to follow. Beware NZD traders!
In the US, Prelim GDP (Previous 0.6%) is a notable event to follow. On May 21, FOMC minutes showed 2008 GDP forecast to +0.3% to +1.2% Y/Y, revised down from +1.3% to +2.0%. Generally speaking, GDP is not a market mover. Even a negative result would not affect the Dollar, Low-moderate volatility is expected.
In the UK, Consumer Confidence (Previous -24) is released at 23:01 GMT.
In Japan, Core Consumer Price Index (Previous 1.2%), Overall Household Spending (Previous -1.6%), Unemployment Rate (Previous 3.8%), and Industrial Production (Previous -3.4%) are events to follow.

Friday May 30th: US data might generate excessive volatility on the markets

In the Eurozone, Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate (Previous 3.3%), Consumer Confidence (Previous -12), and Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.1%) are the main events to follow.
In Switzerland, Leading Index is released at 09:30 GMT.
In Canada, Gross Domestic Product (Previous -0.2%) should be taken into account.
In the US, Personal Spending (Previous 0.4%), Personal Income (Previous 0.3%), and Core PCE (Previous 0.2%) are remarkable events for the day. Also, Chicago PMI (Previous 48.3) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be worth to watch. Core PCE is a significant indicator for inflationary trends. The Fed does concern about the economic slowdown and inflationary pressures. The result may indicate the future US monetary policy. High volatility is expected.

Published on Fri, May 23 2008, 14:40 GMT

Do not Relax Your Attention

Fri, May 16 2008, 11:01 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Let's keep our eyes open for the markets during the week ( May 19 to May 23 ) The week has several significant events. On schedule we have the BoJ interest rate decision, Canadian CPI and retail sales, and the US housing data. Okay! Let's review them all.

On Sunday ( May 18th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Rightmove House Price Index ( Previous -0.1% ) is released at 23.01 GMT. There is no further events on Sunday.

On Monday ( May 19th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the US, Leading Index ( Previous 0.1% ) is important event to watch. In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity Index ( Previous -1.7% ) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Tuesday ( May 20th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, RBA Meeting Minutes are released at 01:30 GMT. Be aware of how the RBA considers the current value of the AUD. In Germany, PPI ( Previous 0.7% ) and ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Previous -40.7 ) are notable events to watch. In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Announcement( Current 0.50% ) is scheduled. Let's see how the BoJ observes the economic situation. In Switzerland, PPI ( Previous 0.6% ) is an event to follow. In Canada, Wholesale Sales ( Previous -1.8% ) are scheduled at 12:30 GMT. In the US, PPI ( Previous 1.1% ), and Core PPI ( Previous 0.2% ) are released at 12:30 GMT. This event may generate a good deal of volatility for the USD against the other majors.

On Wednesday ( May 21st ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, WMI Consumer Sentiment ( Previous -1.3% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT. In New Zealand, Credit Card Spending ( Previous 3.5% ) is released at 03:00 GMT. In the UK, the BoE Minutes of the last meeting are released at 8:30 GMT. We carefully watch what outlook the BoE has for the current situation. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the GBP against the major currencies. In Canada, CPI ( Previous 0.4% ), Core CPI ( Previous 0.2% ) and Leading Indicators ( Previous 0.0% ) are notable events to monitor. In the US, FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 18:00 GMT. Please keep eyes open for it. The content of the meeting may generate high volatility for the USD against the major currencies. In Japan, Trade Blance ( Previous 0.77T ) is an event to monitor.

On Thursday ( Mar 22nd ) we have the following events to watch:

In the Eurozone, Industrial New Orders ( Previous 0.6% ) is an event to follow. In the UK, CBI industrial Trends Orders ( Previous -13 ) is a remarkable event to watch. In Canada, Retail Sales ( Previous -0.7% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous -0.3% ) are notable events to monitor. Be aware USD/CAD traders. In the US, Unemployment Claims and Housing Price Index ( Previous 0.6% ) are events to follow. In Japan, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released at 23:50 GMT.

On Friday ( Mar 23rd ) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Trade Balance ( Previous 1.25B ) is to be taken in account. In the UK, Gross Domestic Product ( Previous 0.4% ) is an event to monitor. In the US, Existing home Sales ( Previous 4.93M ) is an event to watch.

Published on Fri, May 16 2008, 11:01 GMT

The ECB Shows A Hawkish Tone

Fri, May 9 2008, 12:14 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

On May 8th, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank decided to hold the rates unchanged at 5.00% and 4.00% respectively. The ECB president Trichect's comments seemed a bit more on the hawkish side, which had bullish impact on the EUR. The EUR/USD has moved upwards over 100 pips, currently above the 1.5450 level ( 09:00 GMT, May 9 ), while the USD/JPY fell down to the 103.00 region. We keep on paying close attention to the markets during the week ( May 11th to May 16th ) as many siginificants events are scheduled. Let's go over them.

On Sunday ( May 11th) we have the following events to watch:

There is no significant event on Sunday

On Monday ( May 12th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Machine Tool Orders ( Previous 3.3% ) are scheduled at 06.00 GMT
In the UK, Trade Balance ( Previous -7.5B ) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor ( Previous -1.6% ) are remarkable events to watch.
In Canada, New Housing Price Index ( Previous 0.3% ) is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
In New Zealand, Food Price Index ( Previous 0.7% ) is released at 22:45 GMT.

On Tuesday ( May 13th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, CPI ( Previous 2.5% ), Core CPI ( Previous 1.2% ), and Retail Price Index ( Previous 3.8% ) are notable events to monitor. These events are released all together at 08:30 GMT.
In the US, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.2%) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 0.1% ) are remarkable events, followed by Import Price Index ( Previous 2.8%) that may generate moderate volatility for the USD.
In Japan, Both Corporate Goods Price Index ( Previous 3.9% ) and Current Account ( Previous 1.46T ) are released at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday ( May 14th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, WMI Consumer Sentiment (Previous -1.3% ) is an event to monitor.
In the UK, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.2% ) is a notable event to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, Industrial Production ( Previous 0.3% ) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.3% ) and Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.2%) are remarkable events to follow.
In New Zealand, both Retail Sales ( Previous -0.7% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 0.2% ) are schedulded at 22:45 GMT.

On Thursday ( May 15th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Switzerland, Consumer Climate ( Previous 14 ) is released at 05:45 GMT.
In Germany, Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index ( Previous -0.2% ) are notable events to follow.
In the Eurozone, Gross Domestic Product ( Previous 0.4% ), Consumer Price Index ( Previous 3.6% ), and Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 2.0% ) are important events to watch. These events are released all together at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, there are significant events that might generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors, namely Empire State Business Condition Index ( Previous 0.6 ), Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production ( Previous 0.3% ), and Philadelphia fed manufacturing Index ( Previous -24.9 ).
In New Zealand, Producer Price Indexes Input ( Previous 1.3% ) and Output ( Previous 1.5% ) are scheduled at 22:45 GMT.
In Japan Gross Domestic Product ( Previous 0.9% ) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Friday ( May 16th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Industrial Production ( Previous -3.1% ) and Houesehold Confidence ( Previous 36.7) are events to minitor. In Switzerland, Retail Sales ( Previous 3.3% ) is released at 07:15 GMT.
In the Eurozone, Trade Balance ( Previous 2.1B ) is a notable event to watch.
In the US, Building Permits ( Previous 928K ), Housing Starts ( Previous 947K ), and Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 62.6 ) are important events to follow.

Published on Fri, May 9 2008, 12:14 GMT

Condifence In the Dollar?

Fri, May 2 2008, 14:43 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The NFP came out much better than expected on Friday, ( May 2nd : Actual -20 vs Forecast -78 ). We have seen the appreciation of the USD. The EUR/USD has moved down to the 1.5400 region, while the USD/JPY has moved up to the 105.00 region. Will we keep seeing theUSD recover with confidence or are we half- believed in what we have seen?

This week has several explosive events. On schedule , we have Gearman factory orders, the central banks' interest rate decisions and trade balances. It is worth noting that the Tokyo session is closed on May 5th due to a Bank Holiday ( Children's Day ). Alright! Let's review them all.

On Sunday ( May 4 ) we have the following events to watch:

There is no signigicat event on Sunday.

On Monday ( May 5th Bank Holiday in Japan ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, House Price Index ( Previous 3.2% ) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Price Index ( Previous 2.0% ) is released at 02:00 GMT. There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( May 6th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Trade Balance ( Previous -3.29% ) is released at 01:30 GMT. Also, the RBA Intersest Rate Announcement ( Current 7.25% ) is scheduled at 04:30 GMT. Be aware AUD/USD traders.
In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index ( Previous -0.3 % ) is scheduled at 05:45 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.6% ) is an important event to watch.
In Canada, Building Permits ( Previous -1.0% ) and Ivey PMI ( Previous 59.0 ) are events to follow. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the UK, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 77 ) is scheduled at 23:01 GMT.

On Wednesday ( May 7th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Industrial Production ( Previous 0.3% ), Manufacturing Production ( Previous 0.4% ), and BRC Shop Price Index ( Previous 1.1% ) are notable events to watch. Also, NIESR GDP Estimate ( Previous 0.5% ) is an event to follow.This report that comes out a month before the official announce is highly reliable and can influence the UK monetary policy.
In the Euro-Zone, Retail Sales ( Previous -0.5 % ) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Factory Orders ( Previous -0.5% ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
In the US, Pending Home Sales ( Previous -1.9 % ) and Consumer Credit ( Previous 5.2B ) are events to monitor.
In New Zealand, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 3.4% ) is a notable event to watch. Be aware USD/NZD traders.

On Thursday ( May 8th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.1% ) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 2.5% ) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Trade Balance ( Previous 16.9B ) and Industrial Production ( Previous 0.4% ) are notable events to monitor.
In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement ( Current 5.00% , at 11:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 4.00%, at 11:45 GMT ) are released in sequence. The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the recent value of the EUR and inflationary pressure in the Eurozone.
In the US, Unemployment Claims is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.

On Friday ( May 9th ) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events:

In Australia, RBA Monetary Policy Statement is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In Japan, Leading Index ( Previous 54.5% ) is released at 05:00 GMT.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 6.0% ) and Trade Balance ( Previous 4.9B ) are remarkable events to follow. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, Trade Balance ( Previous -62.3B ) is a notable event to watch.

Published on Fri, May 2 2008, 14:43 GMT

Keep your eyes open for the Fed interest rate decision and the big Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, Apr 25 2008, 10:51 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We might have had experienced intense excitement when the EUR/USD established a fresh record high above the 1.6000 line ( record at 1.6019 ). After hitting the record, the EUR/USD started to show a corrective move ( current at the 1.5600 region, 9:36 GMT Friday 25 April ).

This week does have explosive events. On schedule, we have the central banks' interest rate decisions ( the BoJ and the Fed), German retail sales, U.S. Core PCE, ISM maufacturing and the big NFP. We should pay extra attention to the Fed’s decision, whether they cut rates by 25bp, as the markets expect, or keep them unchanged ( Current: 2.25% ). Right! Let´s review them all.

On Sunday ( Apr 27th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Retail Sales ( Previous 3.2% ) and Large Retailers´ Sales ( Previous 1.2% ) are scheduled at 23:50 GMT.

On Monday ( Apr 28th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Consumer Confidence is released at 06:00 GMT.
In New Zealand, Trade Balance ( Previous 0.26B ) is released at 22:45 GMT. Be aware NZD traders.
In the Eurozone, Economic Growth Forecasts is released at 09:45 GMT. There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Apr 29th ) we have the biggest day of the week witht the following events:

In the UK, CBI Distributive Trades Realized ( Previous 1 ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In Japan, Overall Household Spending ( Previous 0 ), Unemployment Rate ( Previous 3.9% ), and Industrial Production ( Previous 1.6% ) are events to follow.

On Wednesday ( Apr 30th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 0.50% ) is a notable event to watch. The governor Shirakawa will have a press conference after the release of interest rate. We should keep eyes open on how the BoJ considers the recent value of the JPY against the USD.
In New Zealand, Business Conference ( Previous -57.9 ) is an event to follow. Be aware NZD traders.
In Germany, Retail Sales ( Previous -1.6% ) and Unemployment Rate ( Previous 7.4% ) are notable events to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, both Consumer Confidence ( Previous -12 ) and Unemployment Rate ( Previous 7.1% ) are scheduled at 09:00 GMT.
In Switzerland, Leading Index ( Previous 1.89B ) is scheduled at 09:30 GMT.
In the UK, Consumer Confidence ( Previous -19 ) is a notable event to watch.
In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change ( Previous 8K ) and GDP Annualized ( Previous 2.4% ) are scheduled at 12:15 GMT and at 12:30 GMT respectively. Also Chicogo PMI ( Previous 48.6 ) is remarkable event to monitor. Later on, the Fed Interest Rate Decision ( Current 2.25% ) is announced at 18:15 GMT. We should keep eyes open on what action the Fed takes.

On Thursday ( May 1st ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 51.3 ) is an important event to watach.
In the US, Personal Spending ( Previous 0.1% ), Personal Income ( Previous 0.5% ), Core PCE ( Previous 0.1% ), and ISM Manufacturing Index ( Previous 48.6 ) are remarkable events of this week. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies.

On Friday ( May 2nd ) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events

In Australia, Retail Sales ( Previous -0.1% ) is an event to follow. Be aware AUD traders.
In Switzerland, SVME PMI ( Previous 55.3 ) is released at 07:30 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Manufacturing PMI is scheduled at 08:00 GMT.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.1% ) , Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP, Previous -80K ), the Average Hourly Earnings ( Previous 0.3% ) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to have a big impact on the USD against the other Majors.All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.
Later on at 14:00 GMT, Factory Orders ( Previous -1.3% ) is a notable event to watch.

Published on Fri, Apr 25 2008, 10:51 GMT

Correction

Fri, Apr 18 2008, 13:07 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Apr 21st to Apr 25th )

On April 17th, the EUR/USD hit a record high at 1.5983. although G7 gave a caution about the over appreciated EUR. However, today ( April 18 ), the USD has gained against the other majors. The USD/JPY has moved back to the 104.00 region, while The EUR/USD has gone down to the 1.5700 region.
Several explosive events are scheduled during this week. We can not afford to miss any of them. Let´s review them all.

On Monday ( Apr 21st ) we have the following events to watch:

InAustralia, Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.6% ) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Apr 22nd ) we have the biggest day of the week witht the following events:

In Switzerland, Trade Balance ( Previous 1.55B ) is an event to follow.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada releases it Interest Rate Decision ( Current at 3.50% ) at 13:00 GMT.
In the US, Existing Home Sales ( Previous 5.03M ), House Price Index ( Previous -1.1% ) and Richmond Fed Index ( Previous 6 ) that gives inside info on the U.S .economy are remarkable events to watch. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies.
In Japan, Trade Balance ( Previous 0.60T ) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday ( Apr 23rd ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.9% ) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In the UK, MPC Meeting Minutes and BBA Mortgage Approvals ( Previous 43.9K ) are released at 08:30 GMT. Keep eyes open on how the BoE considers the current economic situation in the UK.
In thre Euro-Zone, Industrial New Orders are scheduled at 09:00 GMT.
In Canada, Retail Sales ( Previous 1.5% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 1.3% ) are notable events to watch.
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand releases its Interest Rate Decision ( Current 8.25% ) at 21:00. Be aware NZD traders.
In Japan, All industries Activity Index ( Previous 0.0% ) and Corporate Service Price Index ( Previous 0.7% ) are scheduled at 23:50 GMT

On Thursday ( Apr 24th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Ifo Business Climate Index ( Previous 103.8 ) is a notable event to watch.
In the UK, Retail Sales ( Previous 1.0% ) and CBI Industrial Trend Orders ( Previous 7 ) are remarkable event to watch.
In the US, Durable Goods Orders ( Previous 5.0% , Core 2.3% ), Unemployment Claims, and New Home Sales ( Previous 590K ) are remarkable events to monitor. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies.
In Canada, BoC Monetary Policy Report is released at 14:30 GMT. Be aware of USD/CAD tarders.
In Japan, Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 1.0%) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Friday ( Apr 25th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, GDP ( Previous 0.6% ) is an important event to follow.
In the US, Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 63.2 ) is a notable event to watch.
There are no further significant events on Friday.

Published on Fri, Apr 18 2008, 13:07 GMT

After G7

Fri, Apr 11 2008, 14:01 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Apr 14th to Apr 18th )

We keep on bracing ourselves up during the week ( Apr 14th to Apr 18th ), though we had a week when much important data was released. On Apr 10th the Bank of England cut the interest rate by 25 bps as the markets expected ( Current 5.00 % ), while the European Central Bank decided to hold rates unchanged at 4.00 %. The ECB president Trichet not change his speech as it showed the usual hawkish tone. The EUR/USD established a fresh record high at 1.5914, as the EUR/GBP hit another all time high at 0.8032.
This week has CPI data from key countries. We should pay extra attention to the markets as we have still been experiencing new episodes of the financial markets turmoil. It is worth noting that the G7 takes place today ( April 11 ). Let's see whether or not the G7 will bring a new dimension to the markets. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Monday ( Apr 14th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, PPI Input ( Previous 2.3% ), PPI Output ( Previous 0.3%) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor ( Previous 1.5%) are important events to monitor.
In the Euro-Zone, Industrial Production ( Previous -0.5% ) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, Retail Sales ( Previous -0.6 %) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous -0.2% ) are the biggest events of the week. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors.
In New Zealand, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 1.2% ) and Food Price Index ( Previous 0.8% ) are scheduled at 22:45 GMT.

On Tuesday ( Apr 15th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 2.5% ), Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 1.2% ) and Retail Price Index ( Previous 4.1% ) are notable events to follow. These events are released at 08:30 GMT.
In Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Previous -32.0 ) is to be taken into account.
In the US, Empire State Business Conditions Index ( Previous -22.2 ), PPI ( Previous 0.3% ), Core PPI ( Previous 0.5%) and NAHB Housing Market Index ( Previous 20 ) are remarkable events to watch.

On Wednesday ( Apr 16th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, WMI Leading Index ( Previous 0.0% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Germany, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.5% ) is a notable event to follow.
In the UK, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.2% ) is an important event to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 3.3% ) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.0% ), Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.0% ), and Industrial Production ( Previous -0.5% ) are important events to follow. Also, Beige Book should be taken into account.

On Thursday ( Apr 17th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Industrial Production ( Previous -1.2% ) is scheduled at 04:30 GMT.
In Swisszearland, Retail Sales ( Previous 1.3% ) is an event to follow.
In the Euro-Zome, Trade Blance ( Previous -2.0B ) and the ECB Monthly report are released at 09:00 GMT.
In Canada, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.4% ) and Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.5% ) are notable events to watch. Be aware CAD traders.
In the US,Uemployment Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ( Previous -17.4 ), and Leading Index ( Previous -0.3% ) are remarkable events to watch.

On Friday ( Apr 18th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Import Price Index ( Previous 0.2% ) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In Japan, Houesehold Confidence ( Previous 36.1 ) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.7% ) is released at 06:00 GMT.
In Canada, Wholesale Sales ( Previous 2.6% ) and Leading Index ( Previous -0.3% ) are events to follow. Be aware CAD traders.

Published on Fri, Apr 11 2008, 14:01 GMT

Economic Recession

Fri, Apr 4 2008, 14:25 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Initial Jobless Claims ( Actual 407Kvs Forecast 365K ) and the big Non-Farm Payrolls ( Actual -80Kvs Forecast -50K ) came out much worse than the market expected , while the ADP Employment Change was better than expected ( Actual 8K vs Forecast -30K ). Interestingly the big NFP had a less impact on the USD than we expected. The EUR/USD shows a strong resistance at 1.5750 region, while the USD/JPY moved backward just below the 102.00 region ( a niec support is seen at 101.60 ). However, as far as we consider an outlook for the U.S. Economy ( Bernanke's press confidence on April 2 ), the US economy will get caught in further downdraft. The USD would still have difficulty in gianing against the other majors. The Fed might not have done enough yet. We keep our eyes open onto the markets, though we had a week where a lot of important data was released.

On schedule, we have interest rate decisions from both the BoE and the ECB. We can not afford to miss any eeconomic events as long as we experience a turmoil in the markets . Alright! Let's review them all.

On Monday ( Apr 7th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Trade Balance ( Previous -2.7B ) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT.
In Japan, Leading Index ( Previous 36.4% ) is released at 05:00 GMT.
In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 2.5% ) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Industrial Production ( Previous 1.8% ) is a notable event to watch.
In Canada, Building Permits ( Previous -2.9% ) is released at 12:30 GMT.
In the US, Consumer Credit ( Previous 6.9B ) is an event to monitor.

On Tuesday ( Apr 8th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, NAB Business Confidence ( Previous -2 ) is scheduled at 01:30 GMT. Be aware USD/AUD traders.
In Canada, Housing Starts ( Previous 257K ) is an event to watch.
In the US, Pending Home Sales ( Previous 0.0% ) and FOMC Meeting Minutes are remarkable events to monitor. We should keep our eyes open on how the Fed considers the recent economic situation.
In the UK, Consumer Confidence ( Previous 78 ) is released at 23:01 GMT.

On Wednesday ( Apr 9th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Trade Balance ( Previous -1.9B ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision ( Previous 0.50% ) and the BoJ Monthly report are notable events to follow. We should keep eyes open on how the BoJ considers the appreciated JPY against the USD.
In Germany, Trade Balance ( Previous 17.B ) is an important event to watch.
In the UK, Industrial Production ( Previous -0.1% ), RBC Shop Price Index ( Previous 1.3%) and NIESR GDP ( Previous 0.5% ) are notable events to monitor.

On Thursday ( Apr 10th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.0% ) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In the UK, Trade Balance ( Previous -7.5B ) is scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement ( Current 5.25% , at 11:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 4.00%, at 11:45 GMT ) are released in sequence.
The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the recent value of the EUR.
In Canada, Trade Balance ( Previous 3.3B ) is released at 12:30 GMT.
In the US, Trade Balance ( Previous 58.2B ) is a notable event to follow.

On Friday ( Apr 11th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Canada, New Housing Price Index ( Previous 0.6% ) is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
In the US, Import Price Index ( Previous 0.2% ) and Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 69.) are remarkable events to watch.
There are no further significant events on Friday.

Published on Fri, Apr 4 2008, 14:25 GMT

Keep eyes open for Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 14:45 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Mar 31st to Apr 4 )

We can not elminate the concern about the U.S. economic recession that has plunged the markets into turmoil. At a time of turmoil, the EUR/USD has hit a notable high at 1.5858, while the USD/JPY has had difficulty in staying above 100.00. We may keep seeing the weak USD.

This week, several explosive events are scheduled, followed by RBA interest rate decision, PMIs from the Euro-Zone countries, ISM manufacturing, ADP Employment Change, German factory orders,and the big NFP. We can not afford to miss any of them. Let´s review them all.

On Monday ( Mar 31st ) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro-Zone, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 3.2% ) and Consumer Confidence ( Previous -12 ) are schedulded at 09:00 GMT. These events may generate some deal of volatiliy for the EUR.
In the UK, Consumer Confidence ( Previous -17 ) is an event to follow.
In Canada, GDP ( Previous -0.7% ) is released at 12:30. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, Chicago PMI ( Previous 44.5 ) is a remarkable event to watch.

On Tuesday ( Apr 1st ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, RBA Interest Rate Decision ( Current 7.25% )is released at 03:30 GMT. AUD/USD traders be aware.
In Germany, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 8.0% ) and Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 54.9 ) are important events to monitor.
In the UK, Manufacturing PMI is released at 08:30 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone. Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 52.0 ) and Unemployment Rate ( Previous 7.1% ) are released at 08:00 GMT and at 09:00 GMT respectively.
In the US, ISM Manufacturing ( Previous 48.3% ) is one of the remarkable events to watch.

On Wednesday ( Apr 2nd ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Mortgage Approvals ( Previous 74K ) is scheduled at 08:30 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.8% ) is released at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change ( Previous -23K ) and Factory Orders ( Previous -2.5% ) are remarkable events to monitor. Also the Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech is scheduled at 13:30 GMT.

On Thursday ( Apr 3rd ) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Price Index ( Previous 0.9% ) is releasesd at 02:00 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.4% ) is scheduled at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, Unemployment Claims is an event to follow

On Friday ( Apr 4th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.0% ) is released at 01:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.1% ) is an event to monitor.
In Germany, Factory Orders ( Previous -1.5% ) is notable event to watch.
In Canada, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.8% ) is released at 11:00 GMT
In the US, the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the average hourly earnings and the average weekly earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to have a big impact on the USD. All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 14:45 GMT

Like a roller coaster

Thu, Mar 20 2008, 15:42 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have seen the highly volatile makets. The USD/JPY hit a remarkable low at 95.71, while the USD/CHF moved downwards at 0.9634. Soon or later will our eyes get sort of used to these low prices ( the weak USD ), or will we see the strong USD again? The U.S. economy still can not cast aside fear of the financial problems. We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets. Although we do not have many economic events during the week ( Mar 24 to Mar 28 ) , several explosive ones are scheduled. We can not afford to miss any of them. Let´s review them all.

On Monday ( Mar 24th Bank Holiday : Easter Monday ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Rightmove House Price Index ( Previous 3.2% ) is released at 00:01 GMT.
In the US, Existing Home Sales ( Previous 4.89M ) is a notable event to watch. There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Mar 25th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Canada, Both Retail Sales ( Previous 0.6% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous -0.4% ) are remarkable events that may generate high volatility for the CAD. Be aware USD/CAD traders. In the US, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 75.0 ) and Richmond Fed Index ( Previous -5 ) are important events to watch. The Richmond index gives inside info on the US economy.
In Japan, Trade Balance ( Previous 0.86T ) is scheduled at 23:50 GMT. Be aware JPY traders.

On Wednesday ( Mar 26th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, German Ifo business Climate Index ( Previous 104.1 ) is a remarkable event to follow.
In the Euro-Zone, Industrial new Orders ( Previous -3.6% ) is an event to follow.
In the US, Durable Goods Orders ( Previous -5.3% ), Core Durable Goods Orders ( Previous -1.6% ) and New Home Sales ( Previous 588K) are remarkable events to watch.
In New Zealand, Trade Balance ( Previous -0.32B ) is a notable event to minitor. Be aware USD/NZD traders.
In Australia, Leading Index ( Previous 0.2% ) is released at 23:00 GMT:.

On Thursday ( Mar 27th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Consumer Confidence is scheduled at 07:00GMT.
In the UK, BBA Mortgage Approvals ( Previous 44.3K ) and CBI Distributive Trades Realized ( Previous -3 ) are important events to follow.
In the US, Final GDP Annualized ( Previous 0.6 ) is a remarkable event to follow. It is released at 12:30 GMT.
In New Zealand, GDP ( Previous 0.5% ) is scheduled at 21:45 GMT. Be aware USD/NZD traders.
In Japan, Core CPI ( Previous 0.8 %), Overall House Hold Spending, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 3.8% ) and Retail Sales ( Previous 1.3% ) are scheduled at 23:50 GMT. Be aware JPY traders. These events may generate a good deal of volatility fo the JPY.

On Friday ( Mar 28th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In the UK, GDP ( Previous 0.6% ) is released at 09:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, Leading Index is scheduled at 10:30 GMT.
In the US, Personal Spending ( Previous 0.4% ), Personal Income ( Previous 0.3% ) and Core PCE Price Index ( Previous 0.3% ) are the most remarkable events of this week. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies. As well Consumer Sentiment at 14:00 GMT ( Previous 70.5 ) can not be missed to watch.

Published on Thu, Mar 20 2008, 15:42 GMT

No light at the end of the tunnel?

Fri, Mar 14 2008, 12:18 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have seen turmoil in the markets. EUR/USD rocketed up over 300 pips establishing a new reord high at 1.5651. The US economy has been dragged down by the US sub prime loan problem and the high futures prices. The USD is edging down again against the other major currencies.

Will coming economic events during the Week add further attack on the USD? What practical view will the Fed show us, cut the interest rate? If so, how much?

The week has several significant events. We continue to pay extra attention to the 4 majors. On schedule we have the Fed announcing their interest rate decision. Please keep your eyes open for the Fed Interest Rate Decision. This event may generate excessive volatility for the USD. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Monday ( Mar 17th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Trade Balance ( Previous 1.2% ) is released at 08:15 GMT.
In Canada, Manufacturing Shipments ( Previous -3.4% ) is scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
In the US, Industrial Production ( Previous 0.1% ) and NAHB Housing Market Index ( Previous 20 ) are notable events to follow.
This event may generate a good deal of volatility for the USD against the other majors.

On Tuesday ( Mar 18th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, RBA Meeting Minutes are released at 00:30 GMT. Be aware of how the RBA considers the current value of the AUD.
In Switzerland, Industrial Production ( Previous 10.7% ) is released at 07:15 GMT.
In the UK, CPI ( Previous 2.2%), Core CPI ( Previous 1.3% ), and Retail Price Index ( Previous 4.1% ) are remarkable events to follow.
In the US, PPI ( Previous 1.0% ), Core PPI ( Previous 0.4% ), Building Permits ( Previous 1.06M ), and Housing Start ( Previous 1.01M ) are released at 12:30 GMT.
These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors.
At 18:15 GMT, the Fed Interest Rate Decision ( Current 3.00% ) is released . We should keep eyes open on what action the Fed take for the depreciated USD.

On Wednesday ( Mar 19th Bank Holiday in Japan ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, the BoE minutes of the last meeting are released at 8:30 GMT. We carefully watch what outlook the BoE has for the current situation. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the GBP against the major currencies.

Also, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.2% ) is a remarkable event to follow.
In the Euro-Zone, Trade Balance ( Previous -2.1B ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
In Canada, Wholesale Sales ( Previous -2.9% ) are scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
On Thursday ( Mar 20th ) we have the following events to watch:
In Germany, PPI ( Previous 0.8% ) is released at 07:00 GMT.
In Switzerland, Trade Balance ( Previous 1.22B ) and PPI ( Previous 0.5% ) are events to follow.
In the UK, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.8% ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 52.3 ) is an event to follow.
In Canada, Leading Indicators ( Previous 0.2% ) are released at 12:30 GMT.
In the US, Unemployment Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ( Previous -24.0 ), and leading Index ( Previous -0.1% ) are important events to follow.

On Thursday ( Mar 20th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, PPI ( Previous 0.8% ) is released at 07:00 GMT.
In Switzerland, Trade Balance ( Previous 1.22B ) and PPI ( Previous 0.5% ) are events to follow.
In the UK, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.8% ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 52.3 ) is an event to follow.
In Canada, Leading Indicators ( Previous 0.2% ) are released at 12:30 GMT.
In the US, Unemployment Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ( Previous -24.0), and leading Index ( Previous -0.1% ) are important events to follow.

On Friday ( Mar 21st Bank Holiday ) we have the following events to watch:

We do not have significant events on Friday

Published on Fri, Mar 14 2008, 12:18 GMT

Acceptance for the strong EUR

Fri, Mar 7 2008, 16:37 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

On Mar 6th, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank decided to hold the rates unchanged at 5.25% and 4.00% respectively. The ECB president Trichect's comments seems a hawkish side that has had further bullish momentum for the EUR. The EUR/USD established a record hight at 1.5431, while the GBP/USD got back over 2.0000 ( current 2,0150 at 9:47 GMT on Mar 7th ). We keep on bracing ourselves up during the week ( Mar 10th to Mar 14th ), though we had a week where a lot of important data was released. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Monday ( Mar 10th) we have the following events to watch:
In Germany, Trade Balance ( Previous 10.8B ) is an important event to monitor.
In the UK, Industrial Production ( Previous -0.1% ) is released at 09:30 GMT.
In Canada, Housing Start ( Previous 223K ) is scheduled at 12:15 GMT.

On Tuesday ( Mar 11th ) we have the following events to watch:
In the UK, Both RBC Retail Sales Monitor ( Previous 2.6% ) and NSER GDP Estimate ( Previous 0.5% ) are released at 00:01 GMT. NSER GDP is highly reliable and could influence the U.K. monetary policy.
In Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Previous -39.5 ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
In Canada, Trade Balance ( Previous 2.4B ) is a notable event to follow.
In the US, Trade Balance ( Previous -58.8B ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the UK, Leading Index ( Previous -0.4% ) is scheduled at 15:30 GMT.
In Austraila,WMI Consumer Sentiment ( Previous -5.%%) is an event to monitor.
In Japan, GDP ( Previous 0.9% ) and monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released at 23:50' GMT.

On Wednesday ( Mar 12th ) we have the following events to watch:
In Japan, Houesehold Confidence ( Previous 37.5) is schedulded at 5:00 GMT.
In the UK, Trade Balance ( Previous -7.6B ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, Industrial Production ( Previous -0.2% ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
In New Zealand, both Retail Sales ( 0.1% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 0.3% ) are schedulded at 21:45 GMT.

On Thursday ( Mar 13th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:
In Australia, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.1% ) is an event to follow.
In Japan, Industrial Production ( Previous -2.0% ) is released at 04:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, SNB interest Rate Statement ( Current 2.75% ) is released at 08:30 GMT.
In the US, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.3%) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 0.3% ) are reamarkable events, followed by Import Price Index ( Previous 1.7%) and Unemployment Claims, that may generate high volatility for the USD.

On Friday ( Mar 14th ) we have the following events to watch:
In Germany, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.5% ) is released at 07:00 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Consumer Price Index ( Previous -0.4% ) is scheduled at 10:00 GMT.
In the US, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.4% ),Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.3%), and Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 70.8 ) are remarkable events to follow.

Published on Fri, Mar 7 2008, 16:37 GMT

Keep your eyes open for the central banks' interest rate decisions and the big Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, Feb 29 2008, 15:55 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We have been still experiencing turmoil in the currency and financial markets. We have seen the sharp depreciation of the USD against other currencies. The EUR/USD establised a record high at 1.5239, while the USD/CHF hit a record low at 1.0423. What will the result of US dollar's sharp fall bring us next? We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets.

This week does have several explosive events. On schedule , we have the central banks' interest rate decisions and the big Non-Farm Payrolls. Let´s review them all.

On Monday ( Mar 3rd ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 54.4 ) is released at 08:55 GMT.
In the UK, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 50.6 ) is an envet ot follow.
In the Euro-Zone, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 3.2% ) is scheduled at 10:00 GMT.
In Canada, GDP ( Previous 0.1% ) is a notable event to watch. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, ISM Manufacturing Index ( Previous 50.7 ) is a reamarkable event to monitor.
This event could generate a good deal of volatility for the USD.

On Tuesday ( Mar 4th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.5% ) is released at 00:30 GMT. Also, the RBA Intersest Rate Announcement ( Current 7.00% ) is scheduled at 03:30 GMT. Be aware USD/AUD traders.
In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Price Index ( Previous -1.4% ) is released at 02:00 GMT.
In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index ( Previous -0.3 % ) is scheduled at 06:45 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, GDP ( Previous 0.4% ) and Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.1% ) are important events to watch.
In Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 4.00% ) is released at 14:00 GMT. Be aware USD/CAD traders.

On Wednesday ( Mar 5th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, GDP ( Previous 1.0 % ) is released at 00:30 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Retail Sales ( Previous -0.1 % ) is an event to follow.
In the UK, BRC Shop Price Index ( Previous 1.2% ) is scheduled at 10:30 GMT.
In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change ( Previous 126K ), Factory Orders ( Previous 2.3% ) and Beige Book are remarkable events to watch. These events would generate high volatility for the USD.
In New Zealand, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ( Current 8.25% ) is released at 20:00 GMT. Be aware USD/NZD traders.

On Thursday ( Mar 6th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Trade Balance ( Previous -1.9B ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.
In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 2.6% ) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Facotry Orders ( Previous -1.7%) is a notable event to watch.
In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement ( Current 5.25% , at 12:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 4.00%, at 12:45 GMT ) are released in sequence.
The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the recent sharp appreciation of the EUR.

On Friday ( Mar 7th ) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events:

In Japan, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision ( Previous 0.50% ) is a notable event to follow. We should keep eyes open on how the BoJ considers the appreciated JPY against the USD.
In Germany, Industrial Production ( Previous 0.8% ) is an important event to monitor.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.9% ), Non-Farm Payrolls (the NFP. Previous -17K ), the Average Hourly Earnings ( Previous 0.2% ) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to have a big impact on the USD against the other majors.
All of the events are released at 13:30 GMT.

Published on Fri, Feb 29 2008, 15:55 GMT

Economic Recession

Fri, Feb 22 2008, 15:12 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Feb 25th to Feb 29th )

On Feb 21st, Philadelohia Fed manufacuring Survey fell much below than the market expected ( Actual -24.0 vs Forecast -10.0 ). This result that made the markets conscious of the U.S. economic recession attacked the USD. The EUR/USD hit a weekly record high at 1.4852, meanwhile the positive result of the U.K. Retail Sales boosted up the GBP. The GBP/USD hit at 1.9688 (12:00 GMT on Feb 22nd ). It seems that the serious U.S. economic recession gets a grip on reality.

Several explosive events are scheduled during this week ( Feb 25th to Feb 29th ). We can not afford to miss any of them. Let´s review them all.

On Monday ( Feb 25th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Import Price Index ( Previous -0.1% ) is an event to monitor.
In the UK, BBA Mortgage Approvals ( Previous 42.1K ) is scheduled at 09:30 GMT.
In the US, Existing Home Sales ( Previous 4.89M ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In Japan, Corporate Service Price Index ( Previous 1.4% ) is released at 23:50 GMT.
There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Feb 26th ) we have the biggest day of the week witht the following events:

In Germany GDP ( Previous 0.3% ) and Ifo Business Climate Index ( Previous 103.4 ) are notable events to watch.
In the UK, CBI Distributive Trades Realized ( Previous 4 ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the US, Producer Price Index ( Previous -0.1%, Core 2.0% ), Consumer Confidence ( 87.9 ) and Richmond Fed Index ( Previous -8 ) are notable events to follow.
The Richmond index gives inside info on the US economy.

On Wednesday ( Feb 27th ) we have the following events to watch:

In New Zealand, Business Confidence ( Previous -24.9 ) is released at 02:00 GMT.
In Germany, Consumer Confidence is an event to follow.
In the UK, GDP ( Previous 0.6% ) is an important event to follow.
In the US, Durable Goods Orders ( Previous 5.0% , Core 2.3% ) and New Home Sales ( Previous 604K ) are remarkable events to monitor.
These events may generate a good deal of volatility for the USD.
In Japan, Industrial Production ( Previous 1.4% ), Retail Sales ( Previous 0.2% ) and Large Retailers´ Sales ( Previous -1.5% ) are schedulded at 23:50 GMT.

On Thursday ( Feb 28th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 8.1% ) is scheduled at 08:15 GMT.
In Germany, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 44.2 ) is released at 08:55 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 48.1 ) is schedulded at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, GDP ( Previous 0.6% ) and Unemployment Claims are important events to watch.
In New Zealand, Trade Blance ( Previous 0.03B ) is released at 21:45 GMT. Be aware USD/NZD traders.
In Japan, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 52.3 ), Core CPI ( previous 0.8% ) and Unemployment Rate ( Previous 3.8% ) are events to follow.
These events at 23:30 GMT may generate a good deal of volatility fo the JPY.

On Friday ( Feb 29th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Consumer Price Index ( Previous -0.3% ) is released at 07:00 GMT.
In the UK, Mortgage Approvals ( Previous 73K ) and Consumer Confidence ( Previous -13 ) is notable events to follow.
In the Euro-Zone, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 3.1% ) and Consumer Confidence (Previous -12 ) are schedulded at 10:00 GMT.
In the US, Personal Spending ( Previous 0.2% ), Personal Income ( previous 0.5% ) and Core PCE ( Previous 0.2% ) are the most remarkable events of this week. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies. As well Chicago PMI ( Previous 51.5 ) can not be missed to watch.

Published on Fri, Feb 22 2008, 15:12 GMT

Anxious Days

Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:16 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Feb 18 to Feb 22 )

The week Feb 17 to Febr 22 begins with the U.K. housing data that could have a direct impact on the price action and Swiss retail sales. Following days, we have U.S. housing data, JP trade balance, U.K. retail sales, and CAD retail sales. It is worth noting that the US. Market is closed on Monday, Feb 18 due to a bank holiday in the U.S. ( President's Day ). Ok, let's review them all.

On Monday ( Feb 18th ) we have the following events to watch

In UK, Rightmove House Price Index ( Previous -0.8% ) is scheduled at 00:01 GMT.
In Switzerland, Retail Sales (Previous 2.9%) is an important event to watch.
There are no further significant events, and the US market is closed.

On Tuesday ( Feb 19th ) we have the following events to watch with special focus on the US Housing Market:

In Canada, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.1% ) and Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous -0.3% ) are scheduled at 12:00 GMT. Be aware CAD traders.
In the US, NAHB Housing Market Index ( Previous 19 ) is a notable event to follow.
In Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled at 23:50 GMT. Keep eyes open on how the BoJ observes the current value of JPY.

On Wednesday ( Feb 20th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Germany, Producer Price Index ( Previous 2.5% ) is remarkable event to watch.
In the UK, MPC Meeting Minutes is released at 9:30 GMT. Be aware of how the BoE considers the current value of GBP. Also, CBI Industrial Trends Orders ( Previous 2 ) is an even to follow.
In the US, Housing Starts (Previous 1.01M) and Building Permits (Previous 1.07M) are importants events to watch, followed by Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.3% ) and Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.2%). Also, FOMC Meeting Minutes is released at 19:00GMT. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies. In Japan, Trade Balance ( Previous 0.64T ) is a big event for the JPY as the Japanese economy heavliy depends on trade surplus. It is secheduled at 23:50 GMT

On Tursday ( Feb 21st ) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Trade Balance ( Previous 0.20B ) and Producer Price Index ( Previous -0.1% ) are notable events to follow.
In the UK, Retail Sales ( Previous -0.4% ) is a remarkable event to watch. In the US, Leading Index ( Previous -0.2% ) and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ( Previous -20.9 ) are remarkable events to watch.

On Friday (Feb 22nd ) we have the following events to watch.

In the Euro-Zone, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 52.8 ) and Industrial New Orders ( Previous 2.7% ) is scheduled at 10:00 GMT.
In Canada, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.7% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 1.7% ) are important events to follow. Be aware CAD traders.

Published on Fri, Feb 15 2008, 13:16 GMT

After G7

Fri, Feb 8 2008, 14:21 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Feb 11th to Feb 15th )

We keep on bracing ourselves up during the week ( Feb 11th to Feb 15th ), though we had a week where a lot of important data was released. On Feb 7th the Bank of England cut the interest rate by 25 bps as the markets expected ( Current 5.25% ), while European Central Bank decided to hold the rates unchanged at 4.00%. The ECB president Trichet concerned about uncertain outlook for the global economy, glimpsing a dovish sign of fear for the downside risks to growth in the Euro-Zone. The EUR/USD fluctuates in the 1.4400 region, meanwhile the USD/JPY has moved up over 100 pips, fluctuating in the 107.00 region. A strong resistance is seen at 107.73.
This week does not have many significant events. However, we should pay extra attention to the markets as we have been still experiencing turmoil in the markets. It is worth noting that the G7 takes place in Tokyo on Feb 9th . Let's see whether or not the G7 will bring a new dimension to the markets. Alright! Let's review them all.

On Monday ( Feb 11th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Trade Balance ( Previous -7.4B ) is a remarkable event to watch. In Canada, New Housing Price Index ( Previous 0.5% ) is released at 13:30 GMT. We do not have further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Feb 12th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 2.1% ), Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 1.4% ) and Retail Price Index ( Previous 4.0% ) are notable events to follow. These events are released at 09:30 GMT. In Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Previous -41.6 ) is to be taken into account. In Australia, WMI Consumer Sentiment ( Previous -8.3% ) is scheduled at 23:30 GMT.

On Wednesday ( Feb 13th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Houesehold Confidence ( Previous 38.0 ) is schedulded at 5:00 GMT. In the UK, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.3%) is remarkable event to monitor. In the Euro-Zone, Industrial Production ( Previous -0.5% ) is released at 10:00 GMT. In the US, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.2%) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 0.2% ) are the biggest events of the week. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the other majors. In Japan, GDP ( Previous 0.4% ) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Thrsday ( Feb 14th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.3% ) is released at 00:30 GMT. In Japan, Industrial Production ( Previous 1.4% ) is scheduled at 04:30 GMT. In Germany, GDP ( Previous 0.7% ) is a notable event to follow. In the Euro-Zone, GDP ( Previous 0.7% ) is released at 10:00 GMT. In Canada, Trade Balance ( Previous 3.7B ) is an improtant event to watch. Be aware CAD traders. In the US, Trade Balance is ( Previous -63.1B ) should be taken into account. In New Zealand, Retail Sales ( Previous 2.0% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 0.9% ) are notable events to watch.

On Friday ( Feb 15th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 0.50%) is a notable event to watch. The governor Fukui will have a press conference after the release of interest rate. We should keep eyes open on how the BoJ considers the recent value of JPY against the USD. In the Euro-Zone, Trade Balance ( previous 2.7B) is a notable event to watch. In the US, Industrial Production ( previous 0.0%), Capacity Utilization ( 78.4%) and Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 78.4 ) are important events to follow.

Published on Fri, Feb 8 2008, 14:21 GMT

Week Ahead ( Feb 4 to Feb 8 )

Fri, Feb 1 2008, 14:46 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Feb 4th to Feb 8th )

The Fed cut the interest rate by 125 bp in a week. It highlighted the seriousness of the U.S. economic recession. On Jan 31 EUR/USD hit the price at 1,4903, while GBP/USD hit the price at 1.9947. This week ( Feb 4th to Feb 8th ) has many significant events followed by U.S. Factory Orders, RBA rate decision, Retail Sales in the Euro-Zone, the BoE and the ECBannouncing their interest rate decisions, German Trade Balance and Canadian Unemployment Rate. We can not afford to miss these economic events. Alright! let's review them all.

On Monday ( Feb 4th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Trade Balance ( Previous -2.3B ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT. In the Euro-Zone, Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.8% ) is released at 10:00 GMT. In the US, Factory Orders ( Previous 1.5% ) is a notable event to watch.

On Tuesday ( Feb 5th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, RBA Intersest Rate Announcement ( Current 6.75% ) is scheduled at 03:30 GMT. Be aware AUD/USD traders. In Euro-Zone, Retale Sales ( Previous -0.6%) is an envet to follow. It is worth noting that Feb 5th is a national holiday called Waitangi Day in New Zealand.

On Wednesday ( Feb 6th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Consumer Confidence ( Previous 85 ) is to be taken into account. In Japan, Leading Index ( Previous 18.2% ) is released at 05:00 GMT. In New Zealand, Unemplyment Rate ( Previous 3.5% ) is scheduled at 21:45 GMT.

On Thursday ( Feb 7th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 2.6%) is an event to follow. In the UK, both Industrial Production ( Previous -0.1% ) and Manufacturing Production ( Previous -0.1% ) are released at 09:30 GMT. In Germany, Factory Orders ( Previous 3.4%) is a notable event to watch. In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate Statement( Current 5.50%, 12:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 4.00% 12:45 GMT ) are released in sequence. The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 13:30 GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the current economic situation in the Euro-Zone. In the US, Pending Home Sales ( Previous -2.6% ) is released at 15:00 GMT.

On Friday ( Feb 8th ) we have the following events to watch:

In UK, NSER GDP Estimate ( Previous 0.5% ) is highly reliable and could influence the U.K. monetary policy. In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.2% ) is notable event to follow. In Germany, Trade Balance ( Previous 19.3B ) and Industrial Production ( Previous -0.9% ) are remarkable events to watch. In Canada, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.9% ) and Housing Starts ( Previous 185K ) should be taken into account. USD/CAD traders be aware.

Published on Fri, Feb 1 2008, 14:46 GMT

Keep your eyes open for the Fed interest rate decision and the big Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, Jan 25 2008, 13:41 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Jan 28th to Feb 1st )

We have been still experiencing turmoil in the currency and financial markets driven by the U.S. Subprime problem. The Fed cut interest rate by 75 bp ( Current 3.50% ) as an emergency measure on Jan 22. Recently unwinding JPY carry trade had been seen ( the GBP/JPY once hit 204.63 on Wednesday 23 Jan ). However, after the U.S. government decided on economy-boosting measures, we saw a recovery of stock prices and a bullish momentum for the USD. The USD/JPY moved upwards over 200 pips ( Current paice 107.41 on Friday 13:00 GMT, Jan 25 ). The GBP/JPY is back to fluctuate between 212,40 and 214.00.
This week does have several explosive events. On schedule , we have the Fed Interest Rate Decision and the NFP. We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets. Let´s review them all.

On Monday ( Jan 28th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the US, New Home Sales ( Previous 647K ) is an important event to follow.
In Japan, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 3.8% ) is an event to follow. Also, Retail Sales ( Previous 1.6% ) and Large Retailers´ Sales ( Previous 0.4% )are schedulded at 23:50 GMT.
There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Jan 29th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Switzerland, Trade Balance ( Previous 1.89B ) is scheduled at 7:15 GMT.
In the UK, CBI Distributive Trades Realized ( Previous 8 ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the US, Durable Goods Orders ( Previous -0.1% , Core 0.8% ) are remarkable event to monitor. These events may generate a good deal of volatility for the USD against the other majors.
In Japan, Industrial Production ( Previous -1.6% ) is released at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday ( Jan 30th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In the US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change ( Previous 40K ) and GDP Annualized ( 4.9% ) are scheduled at 13:15 GMT and at 13:30 GMT respectively. Later on, the Fed Interest Rate Decision ( Current 3.50% ) is announced at 19:15 GMT. We should keep eyes open on what action the Fed takes.
In New Zealand, Trade Balance ( Previous -0.65% ) is released at 21:45 GMT. Be aware NZD traders.
In Japan, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 52.3 ) is an event to follow.

On Thursday ( Jan 31st ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 8.4% ) Consumer Confidence ( previous -14 ) are notable evnets to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, both Consumer Price Index ( Previous 3.1% ) and Consumer Confidence ( Previous -9 ) are scheduled at 10:00 GMT.
In the US, Personal Spending ( Previous 1.1% ), Personal Income ( Previous 0.4% ) and core PCE ( Previous 0.2% ) are remarkable events of this week. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies.
In Canada, GDP ( Previous 0.2% ) is released at 13:30 GMT. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In Australia, Manufacturing PMI ( Previous 57.6 ) is scheduled at 22:30 GMT.

On Friday ( Feb 1st ) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events:

In the Euro-Zone, Manufacturing PMIs, namely Germany, the Euro-Zone and the UK are important events to watch.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.0% ) , Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP, Previous 18K ), the Average Hourly Earnings ( Previous 0.4% ) and the Average Weekly Earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to have a big impact on the USD against the other Majors.
All of the events are released at 13:30 GMT.
Later on at 15:00 GMT, ISM Manufacturing ( Previous 47.7 ) and Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 80.5 ) are also importat events to watch.

Published on Fri, Jan 25 2008, 13:41 GMT

Week Ahead ( Jan 21st to Jan 25th )

Fri, Jan 18 2008, 14:46 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Week Ahead ( Jan 21st to Jan 25th )

This week ( Jan 21st to Jan 25th ) does not have many significant events. However, we should pay extra attention to the markets as we have been still experiencing turmoil in the markets.

It is worth noting that the U.S. session is closed on Jan 21st due to a Bank Holiday ( Martin Luther King Day). Alright! Let's review them all!

On Monday ( Jan 21st ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Producer Price Index ( Previous 1.1% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.

In Germany, Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.8% ) is released at 07:00 GMT.

We do not have further significant events on Monday. It is worth noting that the U.S. session is closed on Jan 21st due to a Bank Holiday ( Martin Luther King Day).

On Tuesday ( Jan 22nd ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 0.50%) is a notable event to watch.

The governor Fukui will have a press conference after the release of interest rate.

We should keep eyes open on how the BoJ considers the recent appreciation of JPY against the USD.

In Switzerland, Retail Sales ( Previous 2.2% ) is an important event to follow.

In Canada, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.1% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous 0.0% ) are remarkable event to watch. Also, the Bank of Canada announces the Interest rate decision ( Current 4.25% ) at 14:00 GMT. Be aware CAD traders.

In the US, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ( Previous -4 ) is released at 15:00 GMT.

On Wednesday ( Jan 23rd ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.7% ) is scheduled at 00:30 GMT.

In the UK, both GDP ( Previous 0.7% ) and the MPC Meeting Minutes are scheduled at 09:30.

Please be aware of how the BoE considers the current economic situation in the UK.

In the Euro-Zone, Industrial New Order ( Previous 2.5% ) is schedulded at 10:00 GMT.

In New Zealand, Interest Rate Announcement ( Current 8.25% ) is released at 20:00 GMT.

In Japan, Trade Balance ( Previous 0.89T ) scheduled at 23:50 GMT is an event to monitor.

Let's see how the high value of the JPY has had an impact on the Trade Balance.

On Thursday Day ( Jan 24th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Ifo Business Climate Index ( Previous 103.0 ) is a nortable event to watch.

In the UK, BBA Mortgage Approals ( Previous 44.8K) is an important event to follow.

In the US, Exisiting Home Sales ( Previous 5.00M ) is released at 15:00 GMT.

Please check if further downturn in the U.S. housing market emerges or not.

In Canada, Boc Monetary Plolicy Report is released at 15:30 GMT.

In Japan, Core Consumer Price Index is released at 23:30 GMT, followed by Monetary policy at 23.50 GMT.

We have to watch out how the BoJ considers the recent economic situation.

On Friday (Jan 25th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Consumer Confidence is remarkable events to monitor.

In Canada, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.3% ) and Core Consumer Price Index ( 0.0% ) are notable events to watch.

Published on Fri, Jan 18 2008, 14:45 GMT

Week Ahead ( Jan 21st to Jan 25th )

Fri, Jan 18 2008, 13:59 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Jan 14th to Jan 18th )

On Jan 10th, both Bank of England and European Central Bank decided to hold the rates unchanged at 5.50% and 4.00% respectively. The ECB president Trichet gave a hawkish impression that the ECB may soon rise the rate with the consideration of inflation in the Eueo-Zone. The same day, the Fed chairman Bernanke did not encourage the USD, glimpsing a dovish sign of cutting the rate at the end of January. EUR/USD hit at 1.4815, meanwhile EUR/GBP establised a reacord high at 0.7586.

This week does not have many significant events. However, we should pay extra attention to the markets as we have been still experiencing turmoil in the markets. It is worth noting that the Tokyo session is closed on Jan 14th due to a Bank Holiday ( Coming-of-Age Day ). Alright! Let's review them all.

On Monday ( Jan 14th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro-Zone, Industrial production ( Previous 0.4% ) is scheduled at 10:00 GMT.

In New Zealand, NZIER Business Confidence ( Previous -27 ) is released at 21:00 GMT

We do not have further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Jan 15th ) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

In the UK, CPI ( Previous 2.1% ) and Core CPI ( Previous 1.4% ) are remarkable events to watch.

Also, Reteal Price Index ( Previous 4.3% ) is scheduled at 21:30 GMT.

In the US, Retail Sales ( Previous 1.2% ), Core Retail Sales ( Previous 1.8% ), Producer Price Index ( Previous 3.2% ), and Core Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.4% ) are released at 13:30 GMT. These events are expected to have a good deal of volatility for the USD against the oher majors.

In Austraila,WMI Consumer Sentiment ( previous 1.8%) is an important event to monitor.

On Wednesday ( Jan 16th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Machine Tool Order ( Previous 13.0% ) is released at 06:00 GMT.

In the UK, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.3% ) is an event to monitor.

In the Euro-Zone, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 1.9% ) is schedulded at 10:00 GMT.

In the US, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.8% ) and Core Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.3% ) are remarkable events to watch, followed by Industrial Production ( Previous 0.3% ), NAHB Housing Market Index ( Previous 19 ) and Beige Book.

In New Zealand, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.5% ) is scheduled at 21:45 GMT.

In Australia, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.5% ) is released at 23:30 GMT.

On Tursday ( Jan 17th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Industrial Production ( Previous -1.6% ) and Houesehold Confidence ( previous 39.8 ) are schedulded at 04:30 GMT and 05:00 GMT respectively.

In Euro-Zone, Trade Balance ( Previous 6.1B ) is released at 10:00 GMT.

In the US, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ( Previous -5.7 ) is an event to watch.

In New Zealand, both Retail Sales ( Previous -0.7% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous -1.1% ) are schedulded at 21:45 GMT.

On Friday (Nov 18th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.4%) is an important event to watch.

In the US, Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 75.5 ) and Leading Index ( Previous -0.4% ) are important events to follow.

Published on Fri, Jan 18 2008, 13:59 GMT

The Healthy Movement of the EUR

Fri, Jan 11 2008, 15:01 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead ( Jan 14th to Jan 18th )

On Monday ( Jan 14th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro-Zone, Industrial production ( Previous 0.4% ) is scheduled at 10:00 GMT.

In New Zealand, NZIER Business Confidence ( Previous -27 ) is released at 21:00 GMT

We do not have further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday ( Jan 15th ) we have the 2nd biggest day of the week with the following events:

In the UK, CPI ( Previous 2.1% ) and Core CPI ( Previous 1.4% ) are remarkable events to watch.

Also, Reteal Price Index ( Previous 4.3% ) is scheduled at 21:30 GMT.

In Austraila,WMI Consumer Sentiment ( previous 1.8%) is an important event to monitor.

On Wednesday ( Jan 16th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Japan, Machine Tool Order ( Previous 13.0% ) is released at 06:00 GMT.

In the UK, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 5.3% ) is an event to monitor.

In the Euro-Zone, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 1.9% ) is schedulded at 10:00 GMT.

In New Zealand, Consumer Price Index ( Previous 0.5% ) is scheduled at 21:45 GMT.

In Australia, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 4.5% ) is released at 23:30 GMT.

On Tursday ( Jan 17th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Industrial Production ( Previous -1.6% ) and Houesehold Confidence ( previous 39.8 ) are schedulded at 04:30 GMT and 05:00 GMT respectively.

In Euro-Zone, Trade Balance ( Previous 6.1B ) is released at 10:00 GMT.

In the US, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ( Previous -5.7 ) is an event to watch.

In New Zealand, both Retail Sales ( Previous -0.7% ) and Core Retail Sales ( Previous -1.1% ) are schedulded at 21:45 GMT.

On Friday (Nov 18th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.4%) is an important event to watch.

In the US, Consumer Sentiment ( Previous 75.5 ) and Leading Index ( Previous -0.4% ) are important events to follow.

Published on Fri, Jan 11 2008, 15:01 GMT

Back to work − Central Banks take center stage

Fri, Jan 4 2008, 15:25 GMT
by Tony Juste

FXstreet.com

Although we've already had our dose of volatility in the first 3 trading days of the New Year 2008, the real work starts next Monday. Here are the most remarkable events of the week.

On Monday, Euro-Zone Unemployment and PPI figures are the only remarkable event to follow.

On Tuesday, BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the UK and Pending Home Sales for the USA are the 2 events to follow.

On Wednesday, Australia takes center stage with the release of the retail sales figures, with Canadian Home Sales being the other remarkable event of the day. The usual Crude Oil inventories from the USA is also another event to watch that day.

On Thursday, Australia releases trade balance figures, but what the markets will be looking for are the 2 CB's releases for the day, with the Bank of England being the first and shortly after the ECB giving its decision. ECB President Tirchet press conference wil surely generate some real volatility in the markets. The USA contributes with the usual weekly jobless claims data.

And finally, on Friday, another busy day ahead. The UK starts with industrial production figures, Canad releases its full employment report and trade balance figures, and the USA completes the action with the big trade balance release.

Published on Fri, Jan 4 2008, 15:25 GMT

The non−farm payrolls will be the main issue of the week

Fri, Dec 28 2007, 16:10 GMT
by FXstreet.com Team

FXstreet.com

The next week will bring important economic information, specially for the United States and the Euro Zone. With the new year's arrival we would also see the return of traders to work along with an increase in volatility that will be translated into more trading opportunities.

On Monday (Dec 31st) we have the following events to watch:
In the US, Existing home sales (Previous -1.2%) is scheduled at 15:00 GMT.

On Tuesday (Jan 1st) there are no events scheduled because of new year's holidays.

On Wednesday (Jan 2nd) we have the following events to watch:
In Switzerland, the SVME Purchasing Manager Index (Previous 63.4) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the Euro Zone, Manufacturing PMI is a notable event to follow.
In the United Kingdom, Manufacturing PMI is a remarkable event to watch.
In the US, the ISM Manufacturing Index (Previous 50.8) is scheduled at 15:00 GMT.

On Thursday (Jan 2nd) we have the following events to watch:
In the Euro Zone, German Unemployment rate is released at 08:55 GMT and M3 at 09:00 GMT.
In the US, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (Previous 189K) is an important indicator to follow.

On Friday (Jan 3rd) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:
In Switzerland, the CPI (Previous 0.5%) is a notable event to watch.
In the Euro Zone, Services PMI and CPI (Previous 0.5%) are remarkable events to follow.
In the United Kingdom, Services PMI (Previous 51.9), Net Lending to Individuals (Previous 8.8B) and M4 Money Supply (Previous 0.2%) are important events to follow.
In the US, Non-farm Payrolls (Previous 94K) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 4.7%) are notable events to watch.

Published on Fri, Dec 28 2007, 16:10 GMT

Before Christmas

Fri, Dec 14 2007, 16:04 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

We keep on bracing ourselves up during the week (Dec 17th to Dec 21st), though we had a week where a lot of important data was released. On Tuesday Dec 11, the Fed cut the rate by 25 bps as the markets expected. Although the USD/JPY showed an over 100 pips sharp fall after the rate announcement, US fundamentals such as retail sales data and producer price index have shown a slow recovery for the US economy.

The week Dec17 to Dec 21 begins with the US housing data that could have a direct impact on the price action and German Business Climate; keep an eye on this one as it will give us an inside to the Euro-Zone economy. Following days, we have JP trade balance, JPY interest rate decision, UK GDP, and US Core PCE. Let's review them all.

On Monday (Dec 17th) we have the following events to watch with special focus on the US Housing Market:

In Switzerland, Industrial Production (Previous 6.7%) is scheduled at 8:15 GMT.
In the US, NAHB Housing Market Index is a notable event to follow.

On Tuesday (Dec 18th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Retail Sales (Previous 7.1%) is an important event to watch.
In the UK, CPI (Previous 2.1%), Core CPI (Previous 1.5%) and RPI (Previous 4.2%) are remarkable events to monitor.
In the Euro-Zone, Trade Balance (Previous 3.9B) is released at 10:00 GMT.
In Canada, CPI (Previous -0.3%) and Core CPI (-0.2%) are scheduled at 12:00 GMT. Be aware CAD traders.
In the US, Housing Starts (Previous 1.23M) and Building Permits (Previous 1.17M) are important events to follow.

On Wednesday (Dec 19th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Producer Price Index (Previous 0.4%) and Ifo Business climate (Previous 104.2) is remarkable events to watch.
In the UK, MPC Meeting Minutes is released at 9:30 GMT. Keep eyes open on how the BoE consider the current value of GBP.
In Japan, Trade Balance (Previous 1.07T) is a big event for the JPY as the Japanese economy heavily depends on exports. It is scheduled at 23:50 GMT

On Thursday (Dec 20th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Interest Rate Announcement (Current 0.50%) is scheduled. Also, the BOJ Governor Fukui will have a press confidence. We should keep eyes open on how the BOJ consider the current value of JPY.
In Switzerland, Trade Balance (Previous 1.56B) and Producer Price Index (Previous 0.2%) are notable events to follow.
In the UK, GDP (Previous 0.7%) is scheduled at 9:30 GMT.
In the US, GDP Annualized (Previous 0.7%) and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index are remarkable events to watch.
In New Zealand, GDP (Previous 0.7%) is released at 21:45 GMT. NZD traders be aware.

On Friday (Dec 21st) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events

In the UK, Retail Sales (Previous -0.1%) is a notable event to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, Industrial New Orders (Previous -1.6%) is scheduled at 10:00 GMT.
In the US, Core PCE (Previous 0.2%), Personal Spending (Previous 0.2%), and Personal Income (Previous 0.2%) are the most remarkable events of this week. Consumer Sentiment (Previous 74.5) is released at 15:00 GMT.

These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the major currencies.
In Canada, GDP (Previous 0.1%), Retail Sales (Previous -0.2%) and Core Retail Sales (Previous 0.1%) are important events to follow. Be aware CAD traders.

Published on Fri, Dec 14 2007, 16:04 GMT

Keep your eyes open for the interest rate decisions and the big Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, Nov 30 2007, 16:25 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead (Dec 3rd to Dec 7th )

The week (Dec 3rd to Dec 7th) has many significant events. On schedule we have 5 interest rate announcements in sequence of the BoC, the RBA, the RBNZ, the BoE and theECB, the German PMI, the US ISM, and the big Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which will generate extreme volatility for the USD against the other majors. We continue to pay extra attention to the 4 majors. Let's review them all.

On Monday (Dec 3rd) we have the following events to watch:
In Australia,Trading Blance ( Previous -1.9B ) is scheduled at 0:30GMT. Be aware OZ traders.
In the Euro-Zone, PMIs from European countires are scheduled in the European morning, followed by Switzerland ( Previous 60.7 ), Germany ( Previous 51.7) , the Euro-Zone ( Previous 52.6 ) and the UK ( Previous 52.9 ).
In the US, ISM Manufacturing ( Previous 50.9 ) is one of the remarkable events to watch.

On Tuesday (Dec 4th) we have the following events to watch:
In Australia, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.8% ) and RBA Interest Rate Decision ( Current 6.75% ) are importatns events to follow. Please be aware that the Rate Decision is released at 22:30 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Producer Price Index ( Previous 0.4% ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
In Canada, BoC Interest Rate Decision ( Current 4.50% ) is released at 14:00 GMT. Be aware USD/CAD traders.

On Wednesday (Dec 5th) we have the following events to watch:
In Germany, Consumer Confidence is scheduled at 1:00GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Retail Sales ( Previous 0.3% ) is released at 10:00 GMT.
BoJ interest rate decision ( previous 0.50% ) and the Fed interest rate decision ( previous 4.75% ) are released in sequence. We should keep eyes open on how the Fed considers the depreciated USD.
In New Zealand, RBNZ releases the Interest Rate ( Current 8.25% ) at 20:00 GMT. Be aware NZD traders.

On Tursday (Dec 6th) we have the following events to watch:
In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( Previous 2.6% )
In the UK,Industrial Production ( Previous -0.4% ) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Factory Order is scheduled at 11:00 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, BoE interest rate decision ( previous 5.75% 12:00 GMT) and the ECB interest rate decision ( 4.00% 12:45GMT) are released in sequence.
The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release at 13:30GMT.
We should keep eyes open on how the ECB considers the recent value of EUR.
In Japan, GDP ( previous 0.6% ) is scheduled at 23:50.

On Friday (Dec 7th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:
NSER GDP Estimate ( previous 0.7%) is a highly reliable economic data and can influence the U.K.monetary policy.
In Canada, Unemployment rate ( 5.8% ) is released at 12:00 GMT. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate ( previous 4.7% ), Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP. Previous 166k ), the average hourly earnings ( previous 0.2% ) and the average weekly earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to have a big impact on the USD against the other majors.
All of the events are released at 13:30 GMT.

Published on Fri, Nov 30 2007, 16:25 GMT

Prolonged Economic Slowing

Fri, Nov 23 2007, 09:14 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead (Nov 26th to Nov 30th )

We can not elminate the concern about the U.S. Subprime problem that has plunged the markets into turmoil , although we maybe tired of hearing it every day. At a time of turmoil the EUR/USD hit a new record high at 1.4856. How come the US economy is stuck in recession? Just because of the credit crunch? The answer is not so simple. We have to consider the unprecedented oil prices as well. There is a complex relationship between the oil prices and the currency prices. The soring oil prices have further impact on the world economy.
This week several explosive events are scheduled. We can not afford to miss any of them. Let´s review them all.

On Monday ( Nov 26th) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Nationwide House prices ( previous 1.1% ) is an event to follow.
There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday (Nov 27th) we have the biggest day of the week witht the following events:

In Germany, Ifo Business Climate Index ( previous 103.9 ) is an important event to watch.
In the US, Consumer Confidence ( 95.6 ) and Richmond Fed Index are notable events to follow.
The Richmond index gives inside info on the US economy.
In Japan, Retail Sales ( previous 0.5% ) and Large Retailers´ Sales are schedulded at 23:50 GMT.

On Wednesday (Nov 28th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Consumer Confidence is an event to follow.
In the US, Durable Goods Orders ( previous -1.7% , Core 0.3% ) are remarkable event to monitor.
Also, Beige book is schedulded at 19:00 GMT. This event may generate some volatility for the USD.
In Japan, Industrial Production ( previous -1.4% ) is schedulded at 23:50 GMT.

On Thursday ( Nov 29th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, CBI Distributive Trades Realized is a remarkable event to watch.
In the US, GDP ( previous 3.9% ) is released at 13:30 GMT.
New Home Sales ( previous 770K ) is an important event to watch.
In Canada, Current Account ( 8.4B ) is schedulded at 13:30 GMT.
In Japan, manufacturing PMI ( previous 49.5 ) and Core CPI ( previous 0.0% ) are events to follow.
These events may generate a good deal of volatility fo the JPY.

On Friday ( Nov 30th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, GDP ( previous 2.8% ) and CPI ( previous 0.9% ) are important events to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, CPI ( previous 2.6% ), GDP ( 0.7%) and Consumer Confidence are schedulded at 10:00 GMT. These events may generate some deal of volatiliy for the EUR.
In the UK, Consumer Confidence is an event to follow.
In the US, Personal Spending ( previous 0.2% ), Personal Income ( previous 0.4% ) and core PCE ( previous 0.2% ) are the most remarkable events of this week. These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies. As well Chicago PMI ( previous 49.7 ) can not be missed to watch.
In Canada, GDP ( previous 0.2% ) is released at 13:30. Be aware USD/CAD traders.

Published on Fri, Nov 23 2007, 09:14 GMT

Uneasy Days Before Thanksgiving Day

Fri, Nov 16 2007, 14:55 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead (Nov 19th to Nov 23h)

There are only a month and 2 weeks left in this year. Looking back upon the year, there have been extraordinary incidents like the U.S. Credit Crunch , the unprecedented oil price and the high appreciaiton of both EUR and CAD. Especially the U.S. Credit Crunch has had a huge impact on the markets. We have experienced the currency and financial turmoil since August. We saw the GBP/JPY crash down over 3,000 pips from 251.13 to 219.29. Recently the relative strength of JPY against USD ( USD/JPY fluctuates on 110.10. 9:00 GMT Nov 16) accelerates a drop in share prices in the Japanese stock market. Are there light at the end of the tunnel for the markets? Or will we be plungeed into further turmoil?

This week does not have many significant events. However, we should pay extra attention to the markets. It is worth noting that the U.S. Session is closed on Nov 22th due to a Bank Holiday ( Thanksgiving Day ). Subsequently the Tokyo Session is closed on Nov 23rd due to a Bank Holiday ( Labor Thanksgiving Day ).

On Monday ( Nov 19th) we have the following events to watch:

In the US, NAHB Housing Market Index is scheduled at 18:00 GMT.
This event may generate a good deal of volatility against the other majors.
There are no further significant events on Monday.

On Tuesday (Nov 20th) we have the biggest day of the week witht the following events:

In Germany, Producer Price Index ( previous 0.2% )is scheduled at 7:00GMT
In Switzerland, Trade Balance ( previous 1.8B ) is an important event to watch.
In the UK, CBI Industrial Trends Orders is a notable event to follow.
In Canada, Both CPI and Core CPI are scheduled at 12:00 GMT. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, Housing Starts ( previous 1.19M ) and Buliding Permits ( 1.26M ) are evetns to watch.
In Japan, Trade Balance ( previous 1.03T ) is released at 23:50. Let´s see how much impact the recent appreciaiton of JPY has had

On Wednesday (Nov 21st) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, the BoE minutes of the last meeting are released at 9:30 GMT. We carefully watch what outlook the BoE has for the current situation. The content of the meeting may generate a good deal of volatility for the GBP against the major currencies.
In Canada, Both Retail Sales ( previous 0.7% ) and Core Retail Sales (0.3%) are remarkable events to watch.
In the US, Comsumer Sentiment ( previous 75.0 ) is a notable envet ot follow.

On Thursday ( Thanksgiving Day in the US. Nov 22nd ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, GDP ( previous 0.3% ) is released at 7:00 GMT.
In the Euro-Zone, Industrial New Orders ( previous 0.3% ) are important event to watch.

On Friday ( Lobar Thanksgiving Day in Japan. Nov 23rd) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro-Zone, Manufacturing PMI ( previous 51.5 ) and Service PMI ( previous 55.8 ) are notable events to watch.
In the UK, GDP ( previous 0.8% ) and BBA Mortgage Approvals ( previous 52.7K ) are remarkable events to follow.

Published on Fri, Nov 16 2007, 14:55 GMT

No light at the end of the tunnel

Fri, Nov 9 2007, 17:09 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead (Nov 12th to Nov 16th)

On Oct 31st the Fed cut the interest rate by 25 bps as the markets expected. On Nov 7th, both Bank of England and European Central Bank decided to hold the rates unchanged at 5.75% and 4.00% respectively. The Fed chairman Bernanke did not encourage the USD, glimpsing a sign of fear for the downside risks to growth in the U.S. EUR/USD hit a record high at 1.4753, meanwhile GBP/USD establised a reacord at 2.1161.

This week does not have many significant events. However, we should pay extra attention to the markets as we have been still experiencing turmoil in the markets. It is worth noting that the U.S. session is closed on Nov 12th due to a Bank Holiday ( Veterans Day ). Alright! Please fasten your seatbelt!

On Monday ( Nov 12th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Houesehold Confidence ( previous 44.1 ) and GDP ( previous -0.2%) are schedulded at 5:00 GMT and 23.50 GMT respectively.
We do not have further significant events on Monday.
But please pull your socks up as far as we have the extremely volatile markets.

On Tuesday (Nov 13th) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, Interest Rate Announcement ( current 0.50%) is a notable event to watch.
The governor Fukui will have a press conference after the release of interest rate.
We should keep eyes open on how the BoJ considers the recent appreciation of JPY against the USD.
In Germany, GDP and ZEW Consumer Sentiment ( previous – 1.9% )are remarkable events to monitor.
In the Euro-Zone, Industrial Production ( previous 1.2%) is schedulded at 10:00 GMT.
In Austraila,WMI Consumer Sentiment ( previous -0.3%) is an important event to monitor.

On Wednesday (Nov 14th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Germany, CPI ( previous 0.2%) is a notable event to watch.
In the Euro-Zone, GDP is schedulded at 10:00 GMT.
In the US, Retail Sales ( previous 0.6%) and Core Retail Sales are reamarkable events, followed by Producer Price Index ( previous 1.1%) and Core Producer Price Index ( previous 0.1%) , that may generate high volatility for the USD.
In New Zealand, both Retail Sales ( 0.2% ) and Core Retail Sales are schedulded at 21:45 GMT.

On Tursday (Nov 15th) we have the following events to watch:

In the UK, Retail Sales ( previous 0.6%) is an important event to watch.
In the US, Consumer Price Index ( previous 0.3% ) and Core Consumer Price Index ( previous 0.2%) are remarkable events to follow.
In Japan, Monetary policy Meeting Minutes is scheduled at 23.50 GMT.
We have to watch out how the BoJ considers the recent economic situation.

On Friday (Nov 16th ) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro-Zone, Trade Balance ( previous 1.3B) is a notable event to watch.
In the US, Industrial Production ( previous 0.1%) and Capacity Utilization ( 82.1%) are important events to follow.

Published on Fri, Nov 9 2007, 17:09 GMT

Remains in a Tense Situation

Fri, Nov 2 2007, 14:33 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead (Nov 5th to Nov 9th)

On Oct 31st the Fed cut the interest rate by 25 bps as the markets expected. FOMC showed a hawkish outlook that the 25bps cut would balance the upside risks to inflation with the downside risks to growth in the U.S led by the credit crunch. Does the fed really have the hawkish outlook, or still sit on the fence between a hawkish side or a dowvish side, figuring out the next step? EUR/USD hit a reacord hight at 1.4508 just after the Fed announcement. We have been still experiencing turmoil in the markets. We keep on being moved by the US economy, don't we?

This week (Nov 5th to Nov 9th) has many significant events followed by Germany Factory orders, RBA rate decision, UK Consumer Confidence, the BoE and the ECBannouncing their interest rate decisions, and US Trade Balance. We can not afford to miss these economic events scheduled during the week. Alright! let's review them all.

On Monday (Nov 5th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate is scheduled ( previous 2.7%)
In the UK, Industrial Production ( previous -0.1%) and Manufacturing Production (previous 0.4%) should be taken into account. NSER GDP Estimate is highly reliable and can influence the U.K.monetary policy ( previous 0.7%).

On Tuesday (Nov 6th) we have the following events to watch:

In Euro-Zone, Retail Sales ( previous 0.1%) and Producer Price Index ( previous 0.1%) are notable events to watch.
In Germany, Factory orders is a notable event to watch ( previous 1.2%).
In Canada, Building Permits and Ivey PMI are important events. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In Australia, RBA Intersest Rate Announcement is scheduled at 21:30 GMT.
In the UK, Consumer Confidence is to be taken into account.
In Australia, Business Confidence is an event to monitor. Be aware AUD traders.

On Wednesday (Nov 7th) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Industrial Production ( previous 1.7%) is an important event to watch.
In Oceania, the Austrailan Unemployment Rate ( previous 4.2%) and New Zealand´s Unemployment Rate ( previous 3.6%) are scheduled.

On Tursday (Nov 8th) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate ( previous 2.6%) is an event to follow.
In Germany, Trade Balance ( previous 14.1B) is a notable event to watch.
In Euro-Zone, the BoE Interest Rate ( current 5.75%) Statement (11:00 GMT) and the ECB Interest Rate ( current 4.00%) Announcement (11:45) are released in sequence.
The president of the ECB Trichet will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30GMT. We should keep our eyes open on how the ECB considers the inflationary pressure on the European economy.

On Friday (Nov 9th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In UK, Trade Balance ( previous -6.9%) is an event to follow.
In US, Trade Balance ( previous -57.6B) and Consumer Sentiment ( previous 80.9) are notable events to watch. These events may generate a good deal of volatility for the USD against the other mejor currencies.
In Canada, Trade Balance ( previous 4.1B ) should be taken into account. USD/CAD traders be aware.

Published on Fri, Nov 2 2007, 14:33 GMT

Fed interest rate decision and Non−Farm Payrolls

Fri, Oct 26 2007, 09:03 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Keep your eyes open for the Fed interest rate decision and the big Non-Farm Payrolls

Week Ahead Oct 29 to Nov 2

After G7 on Oct 22nd, we saw turmoil in the markets. EUR/USD crashed down 200 pips. Meanwhile , the US data did not give a hand to the USD. The USD is edging down again. Today ( 8 GMT Oct 26th ), the pair hit a reacord high at 1.4377. Will coming economic events during the Week (Oct 29th to Nov 2nd ) add further attack on the USD? What practical view will the Fed show us, cut the interest rate? If so, how much?

The week (Oct 29th to Nov 2nd ) has many significant events. On schedule we have the BoJ and the Fed announcing their interest rate decisions, the German PMI, the US ISM, and the big Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which will generate extreme volatility for the USD against the other majors. We continue to pay extra attention to the 4 majors. Let's review them all.

On Monday (Oct 29th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Japan, unemployment rate ( previous 3.8% ) is released at 23:00 GMT. Be aware USD/JPY traders.
We do not have further significant events on Monday. But please pull your socks up as far as we have the extremely volatile markets.

On Tuesday (Oct 30th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Unemployment rate (8.8% ) is a notable event to monitor.
In the UK, CBI Distributive Traders Realized ( previous 15 ) is a remarkable event to watch.
In the US, Consumer confidernce ( previous 99.8 ) is to be taken into account.

On Wednesday (Oct 31st ) we have the following events to watch:

BoJ interest rate decision ( previous 0.50% ) and the Fed interest rate decision ( previous 4.75% ) are released in sequence. We should keep eyes open on how the Fed considers the depreciated USD.
In the US, the GDP Annualized ( previous 3.8% ) is also scheduled at 12:30 GMT.
In the UK, Consumer Confidence ( previous -7 ) is a notable event to follow.
In New Zealand, Business Confidence ( previous -26.5 ) is scheduled at 2:00 GMT. Be aware NZD traders.

On Tursday (Nov 1st ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Retail Sales ( 0.7% ) and Trade Balance ( -1.6B ) are important events to monitor.
In the Euro-Zone, German PMI ( previous 54.9 ) and the UK PMI (55.1 ) are notable events.
In the US, ISM Manufacturing is one of the remarkable events to watch.

On Friday (Nov 2nd ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Switzerland, CPI ( previous 0.1% ) is scheduled at 6:45 GMT.
In Canada, Unemployment rate ( 5.9% ) is released at 11:00 GMT. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the average hourly earnings and the average weekly earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to have a big impact on the USD against the other majors.

All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.

Published on Fri, Oct 26 2007, 09:03 GMT

After G7

Fri, Oct 19 2007, 15:57 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

Week Ahead 22 Oct to 26 Oct

We have seen the highly volatile makets ahead of G7. USD/CAD hit a new record low at 0.9703 on Monday 15th Oct, while EUR/USD establised a new record high at 1.4319 on Friday 19th Oct, 8:15 GMT. We should keep on paying extra attention to the markets. Although we do not have many economic events during the week (22 Oct to 26 Oct) , several explosive ones are scheduled. We can not afford to miss any of them. Let´s review them all.

On Monday (Oct 22nd ) we have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Factory orders is a notable event to watch ( previous -0.7%).
In the UK, Nationwide House Prices are scheduled ( previous 0.7%)

On Tuesday (Oct 23rd ) we have the following events to watch:

In the Euro-Zone, Industrial New orders ( previous – 4.0%) should be taken into account.
In the UK, CBI Industrial Trends Orders is a notable event to follow.
In Canada, Both Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are remarkable events that may generate high volatility for the CAD. Be aware USD/CAD traders.
In the US, Richmond Fed Index is an important envent to watch. The index gives inside info on the US economy.
In Japan, Trade Balance ( previous 1.14T )is a remarkable event to monitor. Be aware JPY traders.

On Wednesday (Oct 24th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, the CPI is a notable event to follow ( previous 1.2%).
In the Euro-Zone, PMI is a remarkable event to watch ( previous 53.2), followed by Current Account ( previous 1.7B ).
In New Zealand, the Reserve bank of New Zealand announces the interest rate decision ( previous 8.25% ) at 20:00 GMT. Be aware NZD traders.

On Tursday (Oct 25th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Euro-Zone, Ifo business Climate Index ( previous 104.2 ) is a remarkable event to follow.
In the US, Durable Goods Orders (previous -4.9% ), Core Durable Goods Orders (previous -1.8% ) and New Home Sales ( previous 795K) are the most important events to watch.
In Japan, Core CPI ( previous -0.1 %) and Industrial production ( previous 3.4% ) are scheduled at 23:50 GMT. Be aware JPY traders. These events may generate a good deal of volatility fo the JPY.

On Friday (Oct 26th ) have the following events to watch:

In Germany, Consumer confidence is an important event to watch.
In Switzerland, PPI ( previous 0.3% ) is scheduled at 7:15 GMT.
In the US, Consumer Sentiment (previous 82.5) is a notable event to follow.

Published on Fri, Oct 19 2007, 15:57 GMT

More volatility to come

Fri, Oct 12 2007, 16:52 GMT
by Tony Juste

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead (Oct 15th to Oct 19th)

More volatility to come

There are many important economic events scheduled for next week. Let's take a look at those likely to move the markets.

On Monday, there are no major economic events scheduled.

On Tuesday, we start the day with UK's CPI and the ZEW survey in Germany. Next is the Euro-Zone CPI, which preceeds US TICS data and industrial production. This busy day will finish with the NAHB Housing Index release.

On Wednesday, the UK is on spot in the European Morning, with both BoE minutes and unemployment data. Next is a major event like the US CPI, which preceeds Housing Data, just to complete the day with the Fed's Beige Book.

On Thursday, the UK releases retail sales figures, which will preceed US's leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed Index.

And finally, on Friday, Germany starts with the PPI, UK continues with the GDP figures and finally we have a testimony by Ben Bernanke in an economic forum as the biggest event out of the US.

Published on Fri, Oct 12 2007, 16:52 GMT

Will the marktets be calm for a while after the big events?

Fri, Oct 5 2007, 14:20 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead (Oct 8th to Oct 12th)

Will the marktets be calm for a while after the big events?

This week (Oct 8th to Oct 12th) does not have many significant events.

However,we can not afford to miss these economic events scheduled during the week.

It is worth noting that the New York Market is closed on Monday Oct 8th due to a Bank

Holiday (Columbus Day) Let's review them all.

On Monday (Oct 8th ) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate is scheduled ( previous 2.7%)
In the UK, Industrial Production ( previous -0.1%) and Manufacturing Production (previous -0.3%) should be taken into account. NSER GDP Estimate is highly reliable and can influence the U.K.monetary policy ( previous 0.7%). Be aware GBP traders.
In Germany, Factory orders is a notable event to watch ( previous -7.1%).
In New Zealand, Business Confidence is an event to follow.

On Tuesday (Oct 9th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, Business Confidence is an event to monitor. Be aware AUD traders.
In Germany, Trade Balance ( previous 17.9B) and Industrial production ( previous 0.1%) are important events to watch.
In the US, FOMC Meeting Minutes are remarkable event, with special focus on the FOMC Minutes ahead of G7.

On Wednesday (Oct 10th) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, WMI Consumer Sentiment is a notable event to follow ( previous 4.2%).
In New Zealand, PMI is a remarkable event to watch ( previous 55.7). Be aware NZD traders.

On Tursday (Oct 11th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In Australia, Unemployment Rate is to be taken into account ( previous 4.3%).
In Japan, the Interest Rate Announcement is scheduled –not an specific time, usually between 03-05:00 GMT) ( current 0.5%) Also, the BOJ Governor Fukui will have a press conferencee at 6:30 GMT. We should keep eyes open on how the BOJ consider the current value of JPY.
In US, Trade Balance is a remarkable event to watch ( previous -59.2B) followed by
Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT.
In Canada, Trade Balance should be taken into account ( previous 3.7B). USD/CAD traders be aware.
In New Zealand, Retail Sales are important event to watch.

On Friday (Oct 12th) have the following events to watch:

In the US, we have significant events like PPI ( previous -1.4%), Core PPI ( previous 0.2%), Retail Sales ( previous 0.3%), Core Retail Sales ( previous -0.4%) and Consumer Sentiment (previous 83.4). These events may generate high volatility for the USD against the mejor currencies.

Published on Fri, Oct 5 2007, 14:20 GMT

The weakness of both USD and JPY becomes strongly apparent

Fri, Sep 28 2007, 17:14 GMT
by Tatsuya Kawanishi

FXstreet.com

The Week Ahead (Oct 1st to Oct 5th)

The weakness of both USD and JPY becomes strongly apparent. The Japanese Economic data did not encourage the JPY. Neither, the US data gave a hand to the USD.The USD is edging down.

Will Growing Yen carry trade weaken the JPY again?

Also, will coming economic events during the Week (Oct 1st to Oct 5th) add further attack on the USD?

The week (Oct 1st to Oct 5th) has many significant events. On schedule we have German PMI, US ISM, the RBA, the BoE and the ECB announcing their interest rate decisions, and the big Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which will generate extreme volatility for the USD against the other majors.

We continue pay extra attention to the 4 Majors Let's review them all.

On Monday (Oct 1st) we have the following events to watch:

PMIs from European countires are scheduled in the European morning. Namely Germany, the Euro-Zone and the UK.

In the US, ISM Manufacturing is one of the remarkable events to watch.

On Tuesday (Oct 2nd) we have the following events to watch:

In Switzerland, the CPI is a notable event to monitor.
In the Euro-Zone, the PPI is released at 9:00 GMT.
In the UK, Consumer confidernce is to be taken into account.
In Australia, RBA interest rate decision is released at 23:30 GMT. AUD traders be aware.

On Wednesday (Oct 3rd) we have the following events to watch:

In Australia, retail sales and trade balance should be taken into aacount.
In the Euro-Zone, retail sales is a notable event to watch.
We do not have further significant events on Wednesday.
But please pull your socks up as far as we have the extremely volatile markets.

On Tursday (Oct 4th) we have the following events to watch:

In Zew Zealand, Commodity Price is a notable event to follow.
BoE interest rate decision (11:00 GMT) and the ECB interest rate decision (11:45) are released in sequence.
The president of the ECB will have a press conference after the release of interest rate at 12:30GMT.
We should keep eyes open on how the ECB considers the over appreciated EUR.
In the US, Factory orders are an important event to watch.

On Friday (Oct 5th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

In the US, the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the average hourly earnings and the average weekly earning are the events to watch, especially the "Non-Farm payrolls (NFP)", which is expected to have a big impact on the USD.
All of the events are released at 12:30 GMT.

Published on Fri, Sep 28 2007, 17:14 GMT

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Fundamental

Weekly Market View

Historically low interest rates to boost economic recovery

Historically low interest rates to boost economic recovery

Central Banks rushing to 0% interest rates

Central Banks rushing to 0% interest rates

Auto bailout fails, stock indexes drop

Auto bailout fails, stock indexes drop

Rate cuts approved might be not enough

Sunday December 7

Monday December 8

Tuesday December 9

Wednesday December 10

Thursday December 11

Friday December 12

Rate cuts approved might be not enough

Sunday December 7

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Tuesday December 9

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Further rate cuts expected in Europe

Monday December 1

Tuesday December 2

Wednesday December 3

Thursday December 4

Friday December 5

Further rate cuts expected in Europe

Monday December 1

Tuesday December 2

Wednesday December 3

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Friday December 5

Stock markets continue weakening

Monday Nov 24

Tuesday Nov 25

Wednesday Nov 26

Thursday November 27

Friday November 28

Stock markets continue weakening

Monday Nov 24

Tuesday Nov 25

Wednesday Nov 26

Thursday November 27

Friday November 28

Fear and Uncertainty in the Markets

Sunday Nov 16

Monday Nov 17

Tuesday Nov 18

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Thursday November 20

Friday November 21

Fear and Uncertainty in the Markets

Sunday Nov 16

Monday Nov 17

Tuesday Nov 18

Wednesday Nov 19

Thursday November 20

Friday November 21

Jeopardizing the Foundation of the World Economy

On Sunday (Nov 9th) we have the following events to watch:

On Monday (Nov 10th) we have the following events to watch:

On Tuesday (Nov 11th ) we have the following events to watch:

On Wednesday (Nov 12th) we have the following events to watch:

On Thursday (Nov 13th ) we have the following events to watch:

On Friday (Nov 14th ) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

Turblent Times

On Sunday (Nov 2nd) we have the following events to watch

On Monday (Nov 3rd) Focus on the ISM Manufacturing Index and the RBA Interest Rate Decision

On Tuesday (Nov 4th) U.S. Presidential Election Day

On Wednesday (Nov 5th) we have the following events to watch

On Thursday (Nov 6th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events:

On Friday (Nov 7th) we have the 2nd biggetst day of the week with following events

Soaring Exchange Rates of the Dollar and the Yen

On Sunday (Oct 26th) Queen's Birthday in New Zealand.

On Monday (Oct 27th) Focus on the ISM Manufacturing Index

On Tuesday (Oct 28th) we have the following events to watch:

On Wednesday (Oct 29th) we have the biggest day of the week with the following events: