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Weekly Currency Brief

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Stabilization despite adverse environment

Fri, Mar 6 2009, 16:33 GMT
by Przemysław Kwiecień

X-Trade Brokers, XTB

The first week of March was yet another one when the Polish zloty lost against majors like the euro or the dollar. However, looking at the whole picture, it still was a sign of some stabilization. First of all, we had another flow of pessimistic information from the developed markets, where major stock indices excavated their lows amid bleak economic data (like employment reports from the US) and continuous uncertainty regarding financial sector, not only in the US. Most of the emerging currencies hit their weekly lows to the dollar on Wednesday morning along with the euro. Later on, however, the euro managed to recover some losses despite Trichet signaling further interest rates cuts and thus helped currencies like the zloty to regain some ground as well. The USDPLN ended the week at 3,70 in comparison to 3,65 on previous Friday and 3,83 maximum on Wednesday. The EURPLN rose from 4,63 to 4,69. This is not much compared to the dramatic depreciation in the mid-February, as well as in comparison to some other emerging currencies. Among those the heaviest blow had been taken by the Hungarian forint (down 6% on the week), followed by the Turkish lira and the South African rand (ca. -5% to the dollar). The good performance of the zloty and the Czech koruna (which even managed to gain ca. 1%) reflects some reassuring comments from major institutions like the World Bank, pointing to the differences within the CEE region and relative strengths of economies of Poland and Czech Republic. Another sign of a correction of exaggerated moves was a performance of the Polish stock exchange which recorded a 10% gain despite unfavorable conditions.

Published on  Fri, Mar 6 2009, 16:34 GMT