Weekly Currency Brief
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Weekly Currency Brief
Fri, Nov 14 2008, 15:39 GMT
by Przemysław Kwiecień
Last week on the Polish forex did not change much, if one can say so about the market going 10% down and then making up for the major chunk of that loss. The mechanisms, however, remained in place. A high volatility on the stock market fully transferred on the forex market with the major currency pairs: EURUSD and USDJPY heading towards their October’s lows, reinforced by the grim news from the German economy which contracted more than anticipated. That renewed turbulences on the emerging markets, especially in the Central Europe. We could see sharp movements in prices, which means that policymakers in these countries cannot relax. The miraculous session on the Wall Street on Thursday changed a sentiment quite dramatically and with the EURUSD rebounding above 1,28 the losses on the emerging markets were nearly covered. Still, the move on the EURUSD was just a correction and for as long as we see a bearish stock market, one should assume the dollar testing new year highs against the euro. Should that happen, emerging currencies will be under fire again.
The USDPLN started last week at 2,81 and moved up to as high as 3,05 on Thursday morning. After the major shift in the EURUSD it ended the week at around 2,90. EURPLN moved from 3,63 to 3,68, while CHFPLN climbed from 2,40 to 2,43.
Published on Fri, Nov 14 2008, 15:40 GMT
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