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Weekly Currency Brief

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Złoty remains strong

Fri, Oct 23 2009, 14:21 GMT
by Adam Narczewski

X-Trade Brokers, XTB

Stock indices keep reaching new yearly highs and this has great influence on emerging markets’ currencies, like the Polish Złoty. Risk aversion declined and despite worse news from the U.S housing market, optimism is back on the markets. Most of the American companies are reporting better than expected quarterly results (this past week firms like Wells Fargo, DuPont, Caterpillar or Microsoft). Good results are driving indices up, which at the same time is causing the EUR/USD to reach new yearly highs. This past week the EUR/USD broke the magical $1.50 level and finishes the week at $1.5030 while on Monday it was quoted at $1.4850.

As the Polish stock market is increasing, so is the Złoty. Foreign capital is flowing back into the Warsaw Stock Exchange (PGE’s IPO is the reason?). Also, a series of macroeconomic news was published about the Polish economy. Unemployment rate increased only to 10.9% while CPI inflation remained at 2.9%. Retail sales declined to 2.5% (on a yearly basis) and we have to remember that internal consumption is what drives Polish GDP. Usually (and so it was this time), the market ignores macroeconomic publications from Poland and as long as stock markets will be climbing up (and the EUR/USD) so will the local currency. Throughout the course of the week, the EUR/PLN declined from zł.4.2060 all the way to zł.4.1715 while the USD/PLN from zł.2.8250 to zł.2.7735 (reaching a yearly low on Wednesday at zł.2.7563).

Published on  Fri, Oct 23 2009, 14:21 GMT