Empire State Manufacturing Index (March, Monday 8:30 ET)

Forecast: 22.9 Consensus: 21.45 Previous: 24.91

Expansion in the manufacturing industry in the New York Fed’s district could ease slightly in March as indicated in the slowdown in the previous month’s new orders index. Nevertheless, the manufacturing industry continues to lead the economic recovery and is expected to expand further.


Industrial Production (February, Monday 9:15 ET)

Forecast: 0.2% Consensus: 0.0% Previous: 0.9%

The pace of expansion of industrial production will ease in February to 0.2% from 0.9%. The largest component of industrial production is manufacturing, which grew at a slower pace in February according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. While the impact of fiscal stimulus and inventory restocking has led to questions about the sustainability of growth in industrial production, production levels have been expanding across a progressively wider spectrum of industries, indicating that growth will continue.


Housing Starts (February, Tuesday 8:30 ET)

Forecast: 583K Consensus: 570K Previous: 591K

Amid weak demand, low builders confidence and extreme weather in some regions, housing starts could slip 1.4% following January’s 2.8% rise. While starts have risen 21.1% above those of last year, they remain at some of the lowest levels in the history of the data (starting in 1959). New construction is expected to pick-up as the weather improves, but the pace will be slow due to limited demand for new homes. The implication for 1Q10 is that residential investment will likely improve, but at a slow pace.


Consumer Price Index (February, Thursday 8:30 ET)

Forecast: 0.1%, 0.1% Consensus: 0.1%, 0.1% Previous: 0.2%, -0.1%

Both headline and core prices are expected to rise 0.1% in February. Declining rent prices could continue to weigh down on the shelter component, which constitutes approximately 30% of the index. Furthermore, substantial economic slack, as exhibited by the high unemployment rate and low rate of capacity utilization, will offset prices pressures and inflation expectations remain well anchored. As a result, we continue to expect core inflation to remain low but positive in 2010.


Leading Economic Index (March, Thursday 10:00 ET)

Forecast: 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% Previous: 0.3%

The Leading Economic Index will increase at a slower pace in February than January, indicative of some of the speed bumps that the economic recovery will have to overcome. While most components are expected to contribute positively, declines in consumer expectations and building permits could limit the index’s expansion. Furthermore, initial jobless claims will only post a small contribution, whereas it has been a driver in previous months. Nevertheless, the index will climb for the eleventh consecutive month, indicating that the economy is still on the path to recovery.