S&P Case-Shiller 20 Home Price Index (December, Tuesday 9:00 ET)

Forecast: -0.4% Consensus: 0.1% Previous: -0.2%

Home prices are expected to slip for the second month in a row, following five months of rises. The slowdown could be the result of a slow in demand over the winter months. Nevertheless, it is not the indication of another downward trend because the year-over-year rate will continue to improve. Home prices are currently at favorable levels for consumers and will play a role in attracting demand and reducing inventories of existing homes.


Consumer Confidence (February, Tuesday 10:00 ET)

Forecast: 55.4 Consensus: 55.0 Previous: 55.9

February’s consumer confidence is forecasted to slip down to 55.4 from 55.9, as indicated by the drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Consumer’s outlook has remained fairly flat over the past nine months, reflecting uncertainty in the state of the labor market and the pace of recovery. As a result, confidence is not expected to pick-up until the employment situation makes some steady advances. Even though consumer spending has pick-up in recent months, stagnant confidence levels could slow the recovery.


Durable Goods Orders, excl. Transportation (January, Thurs 8:30 ET)

Forecast: 1.2%, 1.0% Consensus: 1.5%, 0.9% Previous: 0.3%, 0.9%

Durable goods orders are forecasted to rise 1.2% following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The previous month’s data illustrated a widespread improvement across components, which is expected to continue into January. Orders across a variety of goods would be a positive sign for the sustainability of the economic recovery and point to continued growth in industrial production.


Chicago PMI (February, Friday 9:45 ET)

Forecast: 62.1 Consensus: 59.0 Previous: 61.5

The Chicago PMI is expected to rise for the sixth consecutive month, indicating that business activity in the Chicago region is expanding at an accelerating pace. The index includes both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors and is considered an indicator of the overall economy. An increase in the PMI would support our expectation of economic growth in 1Q10.


Existing Home Sales (January, Friday 10:00 ET)

Forecast: 5.27M Consensus: 5.50M Previous: 5.45M

Sales of existing homes are expected to drop for the second month in a row in January. However, the movement could be a continuation of the downward adjustment following the passing of the original expiration date of the home buyers’ tax credit. Sales are still expected to come in 25% above the previous year’s levels, indicating that demand is stabilizing. While favorable home prices will continue to attract buyers to the market, the recovery of the residential real estate market will be slow as households remain constricted by the weak labor market and limited access to credit.