International Trade Balance (December, Tuesday 10:00 ET)

Forecast: -$36.0B Consensus: -$35.5B Previous: -$36.4B

December’s international trade balance is expected to illustrate additional growth in demand both at home and abroad. While Asia is driving the export expansion, imports are benefiting from demand for capital goods, consumer goods and industrial supplies. In December, strength in exports is expected to surpass that of imports, causing the trade balance to tighten slightly. Looking forward, exports could become a driver of GDP growth as economic recovery in emerging markets outpaces that of the U.S.


Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims (w/e Feb 5, Thursday 8:30 ET)

Forecast: 470K Consensus: 465K Previous: 480K

Initial unemployment insurance claims are expected to drop to 470K in the first week of February after creeping up to 480K in January. The recent rise in initial jobless claims is representative of the ongoing weakness in the labor market; nevertheless, claims have come significantly closer to their historical average of 360K. This indicator’s levels are expected to decrease further, but at a slow pace as the labor market will take time to recover.


Retail Sales (January, Thursday 8:30 ET)

Forecast: 0.3% Consensus: 0.3% Previous: -0.3%

Retail sales are expected to rebound in January after dropping 0.3% in December. Consumer credit outstanding has decreased significantly, indicating that the increase in demand is most likely cash based-rather than credit based. As a result, the increase in this month’s sales is expected to focus on necessary goods rather than more expensive big-ticket items.


Business Inventories (December, Thursday 10:00 ET)

Forecast: 0.3% Consensus: 0.3% Previous: 0.4%

After depleting inventories to historically low levels, firms have brought them more in line with sales, ending the downward inventory adjustment. December’s inventories are expected to rise for the third month in a row because businesses are now in the process of restocking. While companies will likely maintain leaner inventories than before the crisis, they will raise them from current levels. As a result, inventory growth could have a positive contribution to GDP growth in 1Q10.


U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February, Friday 9:55 ET)

Forecast: 75.2 Consensus: 75.0 Previous: 74.4

Consumer sentiment is expected to rise moderately in February following news of further stabilization in the labor market and positive 4Q09 GDP results; however, the results are not expected to have a significant impact on consumption. Households continue to face bleak employment prospects and low wage growth. Furthermore, businesses continue to face credit constraints, so their financial means for hiring remains limited. As a result, consumer sentiment is expected to increase as a slow pace moving forward and the pace of consumption will follow suit.