Turkey Weekly Macro Comment

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Declaration of Commitment
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 17:00 GMT
by Yapi Kredi Bank Economic Research Department
UniCredit Group
• What was most striking in PM Erdogan’s speech over the weekend was his references to out of mainstream (some considered to be subversive by the establishment) figures in this land’s history and his candid embracement of them all.
• It is also very likely that the tone of PM Erdogan’s speech implicates that he deliberately positioned himself at a point of no return and he may thus have implemented a well known strategy in certain games: constrain your own maneuvering space so as to force your rival to commit to a strategy that works for you the best.
• September inflation at 0.39% came lower than market’s expectation and much lower than ours and brought down the 12-month inflation figure to 5.27%. Seasonal factors do not seem to have had their usual impact and benign food inflation in particular was a significant contributor to the low monthly figure.
• The minutes of the last MPC have created reasonable controversy among economists. Some opine that the tone has turned relatively hawkish, but we beg to differ.
Published on
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 17:05 GMT
Archive
- The Subconscious Works in (Not So) Mysterious Ways
Published On Tue, Nov 17 2009, 09:06 GMT
- Declaration of Commitment
Published On Mon, Oct 5 2009, 17:00 GMT
- Going Once, Going Twice..... , Still Not Gone
Published On Tue, Nov 25 2008, 10:39 GMT
- Semi-Reluctant Recruits into the No Closure/No Ban Camp?
Published On Tue, Jul 22 2008, 09:07 GMT
- Silence Before the Storm, and Regardless
Published On Wed, Jul 2 2008, 10:28 GMT
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