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Turkey Weekly Macro Comment

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Going Once, Going Twice..... , Still Not Gone

Tue, Nov 25 2008, 10:39 GMT
by Yapi Kredi Bank Economic Research Department

UniCredit Group


• Disappointment among constituents seems to be contagious as political parties started taking up policies that are controversial at best, and most presumably leading to some loss of membership or loyalty on their part.

• Who will end up with vote gains in this auction for votes? Still not certain, and hence out title this week, but it may well be the AKP after all.

• My conjecture is that the reform process slowdown, the change in rhetoric and strategy, and other sources of the liberals’ discontent with the AKP’s performance do not have their roots in the AKP’s acquired omnipotence feeling – such a feeling is in my view nonexistent.

• The drastic rate cut by the MPC was mostly labeled premature, counterproductive, borderline irresponsible, etc…The ultimate gauge will be the change in market rates and inflation expectations, and the fact that it was unexpected could render the move much more effective provided it was indeed a prudent one.

• Nothing of interest on the credit front beyond what we mentioned last week which was interesting enough anyway. .

• IMF deal announcement is imminent, but that does not mean that the announcement is likely to come as early as this week or the next. There should be significant differences between the two parties and it would be a significant shock if the AKP acquiesces this easily and accepts the Fund’s target or estimate figures for most variables of interest.


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