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Turkey Weekly Macro Comment
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Silence Before the Storm, and Regardless
Wed, Jul 2 2008, 10:28 GMT
by Yapi Kredi Bank Economic Research Department
2008Q1 GDP results were announced this morning and markets were pleasantly surprised by the 6.6% figure as opposed to the consensus expectation of 5%. It will have a close to nil impact on local sentiment but foreign investors whose time horizon is usually longer than locals’ could interpret the figure a bit more favorably going forward
Closure case might be approaching its final phase; SP will present his case orally in front of the Constitutional Court tomorrow and AKP will deliver its oral defense to the same audience on Thursday.
If the SC prepares the report within the next two weeks, and we assume that he definitely will and that he has already prepared the bulk of it, we may have the ruling by early August or maybe even at the end of July.
Please look inside for some very humble and definitely not ambitious sociological, maybe anthropological, assessment of our never ending problem with justice in general and with the judiciary in particular in Turkey.
We are still of the contention that asset prices reflect neither the best nor the worst case scenario. That will probably be so until the ruling is announced as this CC’s most intriguing feature is arguably is unpredictability. That is our very subjective view, we have to admit. Most analysts believe that the ruling is a sure closure/ban one.
Published on Wed, Jul 2 2008, 10:32 GMT
Archive
- Semi-Reluctant Recruits into the No Closure/No Ban Camp?
Published On Tue, Jul 22 2008, 09:07 GMT - Silence Before the Storm, and Regardless
Published On Wed, Jul 2 2008, 10:28 GMT - Turning "Suspected Democrats" into Martyrs of Democracy
Published On Wed, Mar 19 2008, 09:18 GMT - Turks' Test with Numbers, Again
Published On Tue, Mar 11 2008, 15:07 GMT
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