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Turkey Weekly Macro Comment
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Turks' Test with Numbers, Again
Tue, Mar 11 2008, 15:07 GMT
by Yapi Kredi Bank Economic Research Department
Long awaited GDP revisions were finally out on Saturday and the extent of revision was at the higher end of the expectation interval.
While the revision has not created any favorable sentiment change and is unlikely to do so in the foreseeable near future, it should be a significant trigger factor once the dust settles in global markets.
Compared to the previous unrevised data, share of private consumption is substantially higher while public investment and consumption expenditures are lower.
Public sector consumption and gross capital formation are also lower, implicating an increased share for the private sector in the output creation process.
MPC will have its March meeting on the 19th and we believe that it will choose to terminate the easing process temporarily.
Credit, real estate, and labor markets in the US have not seen the worst yet, most analysts believe, but the worst is still not being priced. Further USD losses should hurt high-beta currencies the most and YTL is perceived as one of them, even if that may or should have eased as an argument following the GDP revision announcement last weekend.
Published on Tue, Mar 11 2008, 15:09 GMT
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Published On Tue, Mar 11 2008, 15:07 GMT
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