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- New York 03:16
- London 08:16
- Barcelona 09:16
- Tokyo 17:16
- Sydney 19:16
This report has been deactivated
Stocks coming off their highs during early trading in Europe ahead of the BoE interest rate decision out later this morning. Oil still continuing the drive northwards now trading at over $72 per barrel as OPEC agrees to maintain production at current levels in order to keep prices at this level, gold coming off its highs at over $1000 per ounce at $990 at time of writing. All this meaning that the markets across the board are trading steady awaiting the comments made from governor Mervyn King reference the 'emergency stimulus package' as reports show that the UK is lagging behind other 'super power' nations. The economic data out this morning for the UK house prices from the Halifax came out better than expected however has had no effect on cable at this time. Stocks in Asia rose overnight, weakening the Yen to 92.26 (38.2% fib ret level for the weeks trading for a third consecutive time) against the dollar.
Cable now trading at 1.65 at time of writing having fallen from the highs of 1.6567. The BoE rate decision out later today the obvious influencing factor for the sell off even though Halifax house price data came out better than expected. Next support level for the cable trade at 1.6480 ahead yesterday's low of 1.6450/55 and the 38.2% fib level of 1.6411. The comments on the 'stimulus package' the key to the ongoing move into the US trading session this afternoon. Resistance at 1.6525 ahead of 1.6540. Favouring further downside pressure for the pound across the board. The pound yen trade the preferable currency pair for this afternoon selling at 152.30, buying back above 151.60/70, stop at 152.60.
Euro trading higher across the board through this mornings trading, coming off its highs of 1.4587 to trade at 1.4545 at time of writing. Should stocks, oil and gold sell off during this afternoons trading session expect a further move south for the Euro back to the 1.45 level. Resistance at 1.4570/80 up to 1.46 (highs of yesterday). Beyond here the next resistance level (2 year 61.8% fib ret level) of 1.4640 the focus.
Yen selling off against the pound, Euro and the dollar, wavering at the 38.2% level for the week at 92.27. The sell off from the stocks in latter European trading and US stock futures looking to open down, expect a strengthen, certainly against the pound this afternoon on the BoE rate decision along with the dollar. Look for a move back towards 151.60/70 against the pound, 92 against the dollar.
Stocks in Asia fell overnight across the board following on to the European session this morning as reports that earnings growth have outpaced equity prices over the 6 month rally. Greenspan ( the former FED reserve chairman who acts as an informal advisor to the UK government) stated that the 'economy will be slow to rebound from the worst contraction in a generation'. The general consensus is that the stocks have been overbought and the risk aversion trades have run out of steam turning our attention back to the dollar along with the continuation of Yen strength. The BoE rate decision tomorrow will also be an influencing factor for the European equities along with the inevitable sell off of cable over the next 24 hours. The US stock equity futures are heading for a lower open at time of writing indicating a sell off today during this afternoons session. Gold has broken below the $1000 per once figure seen over the last two days albeit oil is higher, now above $71 per barrel.
Cable trading for today coming off the highs seen in early European trading at 1.6565, coming of some 100 points to 1.6454 before retracing back to 1.65 figure. The next support level is 1.6480 ahead of the 38.2% fib ret level of 1.6410 for the weeks trading. Below here, the next heavy support is back at 1.6340/50. Resistance at 1.6540/45 (which if reaches and retraces will be the right hand side of a head and shoulders pattern indicating further downside pressure for cable) ahead of the highs for the week at 1.6595. Favouring downside pressure during US trading session this afternoon taking a sell position should we not break 1.6545/50, looking to exit at 1.6480. Trail the stop beyond this point heading towards 1.6420. Euro pound trading higher adding weight to the further southside momentum.
Eurodollar finding it difficult to break the key resistance of 1.4518/20 ( now having had 3 attempts) trading at 1.4495 at time of writing. Should stocks continue to fall during the European session and into the US, expect further downside pressure towards the lows of today at 1.4466 which if breaks and holds, furthering downside momentum towards 1.4450 and 1.4410 (38.2% fib ret level for the weeks trading). The same pattern can be seen against the Yen having now reached 13415/20 on 3 consecutive occasions today. Resistance at 1.4520 which if breaks will see a return back to the highs for the week at 1.4535/40. Further downside pressure favoured.
The Yen weakened against the dollar through the Asian session now trading back at the lows against the dollar of 92.55/60 at time of writing. As the Yen has fallen against the EUR, GBP and the CHF over the last weeks trading expect a retracement during today's trade, specifically should the stocks fall in the US session along with oil and gold, expect a move back towards 92.30 ahead of the weeks lows at 92.05. As the pound weakens over the next 24 hours, expect the Yen to benefit coming back down to 152.20 ahead of the next major support of 151.70 (38.2% fib ret level for the weeks trading).
Stocks on the rise once again for a fourth day assisted by commodity producers gains on metal price rises and the speculation that, as in yesterday's report, will are at the start of a seeing more mergers on the cards thus showing signs not just of an economic recovery but of stability. Oil and gold heading north, another indicator for the global economy turnaround. Having had the Non Labour Day in the US yesterday, equity futures looking bullish for this afternoons session at time of writing. Subsequently, the greenback is being pounded, giving the risk aversion trades the momentum to continue their drive northwards.
Cable trading for today off their lows of 1.6320 during the Asian trade last night reaching a high of 1.6569 during the European. With stocks, oil and gold all heading north, we could see the pound revisiting the highs of August 19 at 1.66. In addition, the economic data out of the UK today for industrial and manufacturing production higher than expected adding weight to the lift. The BoE rate decision on Thursday will be the only influencing factor for a retracement. Resistance then at 1.66 figure ahead of 1.6630 and 1.6660. Support down at 1.65 ahead of 1.6465. Should the selling of cable ahead of the rate decision start later today, expect it to reach the 3 month 38.2 fibonacci retracement level of 1.63 20 (as yesterday's report predicted).
Euro trading strong during this mornings open reaching a high of 1.4494 from lows of 1.4327 during a flat Asian trading session. Same story as for cable, stocks rallying along with an oil and gold surge hitting the dollar hard. Having now hit a 3 month high against the dollar, expect an element of slow down ahead of the UK rate decision on Thursday. Whilst the retracement will not be as severe as cable, expect a move back towards 1.44. Resistance at 1.45 ahead of the next major level of 1.4640. Expect a sell off towards the end of the day into tomorrow.
Yen strengthening against the dollar as the greenback weakens across the board. Having reached a high low against the dollar of 93.10, now trading at 92.25 (low of 92.05). Next support at 91.95 ahead of the 3 month lows of 91.71. Resistance at 92.30 ahead of 92.50 (38.2% for the weeks trading) and 92.70.
Stocks once again ending higher during the US session on Friday seeing a correlation sell off from the risk aversion trades and dollar strength. With Labour Day in the US steadying trading for this afternoon, the data out on Friday particularly the non farm payrolls will continue to give direction for today. The statements made at the G20 meeting over the weekend that 'financial markets are stabilising and the global economy is improving' along with no early exiting plans from QE, gave the risks their move northwards during this mornings trading in Europe following a boost across the board for the European stocks. Kraft foods having offered $16.7 billion for Cadbury added to the speculation that mergers and therefore economies are gaining momentum for the turnaround. Whilst the above seems very bullish for markets and economic growth, the G20 also stated that they 'remained cautious reference the outlook for jobs and growth'. Oil heading north once again in early trading, now at $68.63 per barrel along with gold at just under $1000 per ounce (highest since February 2009) as money moves from the dollar into the 'safe haven'.
Cable currently trading back at the highs of today at 1.6445/50 from 1.6365/70 during the Asian session. With stocks, oil and gold continuing to gain momentum during the European trading session, and economic data thin, steady trading likely. Having now seen a double top at the aforre mentioned level, and with the BoE rate decision out on Thursday along with the comments reference QE, expect a heavy sell off from sterling over the coming sessions. Major support now at the one week 38.2% fib ret level of 1.6320 as long as the 2 year 38.2 ret level of 1.6460 isn't broken convincingly. Resistance at the highs again of 1.6445/50 ahead of 1.6490 and 1.65. 1.6525 the next key level (seen as the head and shoulders of the Aug 21 trade.
Eurodollar trading near the weeks highs of 1.4376 at 1.4350 at time of writing. With a symmetrical triangular pattern forming, the stocks and oil direction likely to be the convincing factors in this afternoons direction as the US market is closed. a clear break above 1.4360 onto the weeks highs will result in a further move northward to 1.44. A clear break below 1.4330/40 expect further downside pressure towards 1.43 ahead of 1.4280 (50% ret level for the week). Favouring a sell off, not before a move towards the highs of the week.
Yen selling off since Thursday of last week albeit coming off the highs for today of 93.30 to 92.95 at time of writing. The third day of stock gains the main reason for the sell off from the 'safe haven' of the yen. Gaining ground over the last few hours of the European session as US closed for trading, the yen still the safe haven trade. Support at 92.70 ahead of 92.55 (38.2% ret level for the weeks trading). Resistance now at the double top high for the day of 93.28/30. The next major resistance at 93.45.
Sterling and the Euro gained during the US trading session as the ADP report showed a larger than expected decline in numbers to 298000 in August albeit a lower figure than July. As oil heads north and US equity futures look set to open higher expect the risk aversion trades to continue their gains, the initial jobless claims the next important data for direction. The yen now coming off the highs across most currencies as Chinese stocks rose the most in 6 months during Asian trading. European stocks trading higher across the board at time of writing which look to continue the momentum into the US session.
Cable trading for today higher once again as the PMI for services came out far better than expected for the UK, the highest figure for nearly two years. Should oil and stocks continue the drive northwards, expect further gains towards 1.64 and the high of today of 1.6414. Support now at 1.6350 ahead of 1.6330 and 1.63.
Euro trading for today coming off the highs of 1.4350, now trading at 1.4325 at time of writing. Should stocks continue to gain through the US session, expect a move back to the highs of today, ahead of 1.4377 (high of September 1) before 1.44. Support at 1.4319 ahead of 1.4290 (50% retracement level for the week) and 1.4265 (38.2% ret level for the week).
Yen down across 15 of the currencies traded as Chinese stocks rise overnight. The next resistance level 92.77 (38.2% ret level for the week), however, looking at the charts for the dollar yen, a nice 'head and shoulder' pattern can be seen between 9am and 1pm cet, giving the key to further strength for the yen. Next support level 92.26 ahead of 92.15/18.
Sterling and the Euro gained during the US trading session as the ADP report showed a larger than expected decline in numbers to 298000 in August albeit a lower figure than July. As oil heads north and US equity futures look set to open higher expect the risk aversion trades to continue their gains, the initial jobless claims the next important data for direction. The yen now coming off the highs across most currencies as Chinese stocks rose the most in 6 months during Asian trading. European stocks trading higher across the board at time of writing which look to continue the momentum into the US session.
Cable trading for today higher once again as the PMI for services came out far better than expected for the UK, the highest figure for nearly two years. Should oil and stocks continue the drive northwards, expect further gains towards 1.64 and the high of today of 1.6414. Support now at 1.6350 ahead of 1.6330 and 1.63.
Euro trading for today coming off the highs of 1.4350, now trading at 1.4325 at time of writing. Should stocks continue to gain through the US session, expect a move back to the highs of today, ahead of 1.4377 (high of September 1) before 1.44. Support at 1.4319 ahead of 1.4290 (50% retracement level for the week) and 1.4265 (38.2% ret level for the week).
Yen down across 15 of the currencies traded as Chinese stocks rise overnight. The next resistance level 92.77 (38.2% ret level for the week), however, looking at the charts for the dollar yen, a nice 'head and shoulder' pattern can be seen between 9am and 1pm cet, giving the key to further strength for the yen. Next support level 92.26 ahead of 92.15/18.
Stocks down for a third day in European trading as fears that they have 'got ahead of themselves' throughout the middle part of the year, the financials leading the way. The 'pullback' that most traders have been talking about seems to be underway. Oil with a 6.5% decline over the last trading sessions is higher this morning, up by 0.65% at time of writing. Gold trading steady at 956.70 (marginally higher in European session). The story of this mornings trading following on from the 185 point drop in the US session yesterday along with the 249 point drop in Asia. The ADP figures out this afternoon looking to better last months figures giving traders the direction for Friday's non farm payroll figures. The Eurozones economic data for GDP coming out better than last months giving the Euro the initial lift back towards the highs of today at 1.4245 against the dollar and trading higher against the Yen at 131.90 (from lows of 131.30).
Cable today coming off the lows of 1.6116 once again (seen as a triple base through the last two days of trading) as stocks are hit through the European session. Whilst the yen still strengthens against the dollar (now at 92.60), along with stock sell off, expect further declines for cable during today's trading. Should the heavy support of 1.6116 break and hold expect a move towards the 50% retracement level of 1.6090 ahead of 1.6030 moving towards the July low of 1.5990. Having now set the triple base (major support), resistance seen at 1.6180 ahead of 1.6218 (38.2% fib level for the weeks trading). Should stocks continue to fall along with oil trading below the $70 per barrel level, the likelihood is that even if we do see retracement back to the 38.2% level, further downside pressure likely.
Eurodollar moving northwards through Asian session hitting a low of 1.4190 and a high of 1.4247. Now trading at 1.4215 and looking at the weekly chart, the resistance of 1.4235 (23.6% fib ret level) seems difficult to break above. If 1.4205/10 level broken, expect a move back towards 1.4190 ahead of 1.4180. Below here, 1.4060/70 (38.2% fib level for the last 3 months trading) ahead of the August low of 1.4047. Resistance at 1.4233 ahead of 1.4267 (38.2% fib ret level for the week). As with cable, even if the retracement does hit the 38.2 level, along with stock sell off, further downside pressure likely.
The Yen still strengthening across the board, now at 92.70 at time of writing. The slide of the stocks the influencing factor in the bullish momentum. Should the trend continue, expect further Yen strength back towards the 92.40 level ahead of 92.15 and the 3 month lows of 91.70. Resistance at 92.90 ahead of 93.20/25 (38.2% fib ret level for the week).
Stocks ended down through the US session yesterday following on from the similar story from the European. Asian equities rebounded following the sell off in the previous session as the DPJ gains power from the Liberals 50 year run. European equities once again trading lower as mortgage data as well as PMI coming out worse than expected from the UK. Cable being hit also this morning on the data as well as stock sell off. The Euro still hurting the cable also as data from the eurozone specifically Germany, came out far better then forecast.
Cable trading for today off the highs reached in early European trading of 1.6375, down some 170 points at time of writing at just over 1.62. Look for a rebound back up to the 38.2% fibonacci level of 1.6265 before further downside pressure resumes as long as the US equities continue their sell off from yesterday. Oil and gold lower, giving the dollar the safe haven status for today's trading. The yen also giving pressure on cable as UK data come out worse than expected. Resistance at 1.6265 ahead of 1.63. Support at 1.62 ahead of the August 31 lows of 1.6285.
Euro holding ground as PMI and unemployment data from Germany came out better than expected along with pound sell off. Stocks down in Europe as well as oil and gold. Expect further downside pressure should US equities continue their sell off as from yesterday. Eurodollar reached a low of 1.4285 this morning now trading around the 50% ret level of 1.4308 for the week. Resistance at 1.4330 (38.2% fib ret level). Support at 1.4285/90 ahead of 1.4265 and 1.4250 (lows of August 31).
The Yen retracing from its highs of yesterday across the board as Asian equities show bullish signs now the DPJ are in power. Strengthening against the Euro and the pound. Should US equities continue its sell off from yesterday, expect yen strength against the dollar as well as continuing against the Euro and pound. Resistance at 93.32 (38.2% fib level) ahead of 93.55 (50% for the weeks trading). Support at 93, ahead 92.50 (August 31 lows).
Having the bank holiday in the UK, expect thin the trading conditions for today. News from Friday still giving the dollar the strength as the consumer confidence figure came in higher than expected albeit not as high as the previous months figure. The stocks from the Friday's US session ended lower also adding weight to the dollar. A similar story for the Asian session, stocks in Japan slumped even though the DPJ wins the election taking out the single party government lasting for nearly 50 years. The yen strengthened across all 16 currency counterparts hitting a low of 92.54 against the dollar and 132.14 for the Euro. A similar story for the pound where a low 150 figure was reached. The fall of the stocks in China giving the Yen the added push northwards. European stocks trading lower in this mornings trading along with oil and gold.
Cable trading for today coming off the highs of 1.6305 overnight to 1.62 at time of writing. The cross with the Yen the main contributing factor to the lower pound during this mornings trading. As the UK is closed, and stocks continue to sell off, expect a further move south towards 1.6150 ( low of 27 August), before the 50% fibonacci retracement level of 1.6090/1.61 for the last three months trading. The Euro sterling trade also giving the downside pressure as it trades at 0.8810/15 at time of writing. Resistance at 1.6245 ahead of 1.63 (38.2% fib level for the week).
Euro trading being hit from the strength of the yen overnight as the DPJ gains power, taking out the Liberal party which has been in power for nearly 50 years. Coming off the highs of 1.4320 , hitting lows of 1.4255. Now trading at 1.4280/90 at time of writing. Strength against the pound giving the lift this morning, now strengthening against the Yen also. Should the Euro break and hold the 1.4315 level, expect a further move towards the 1.4230 (38.2% ret level for the last weeks trading). Support at 1.4280/85 ahead of the 1.4258/60 (low for today).
The Yen strengthening across the board (16 currency pairs), now retracing from its highs against the dollar to 93 (having reached lows of 92.50/55. Should stocks continue to fall into the US session (down in Europe), expect further strength back to the levels seen this morning ahead of the three month lows of 91.70/00. With gold and oil trading lower, the yen is the 'safe haven' for the trading for today.
Stocks gained yesterday during the US session as jobless claims came out better than last months figures, albeit not better than forecast. The signs are all there that the states is now certainly at a turning point and heading out of recession with earnings once again coming out better than expected. The risk aversion trades on the back of the data pushed northwards, the Euro reaching a 3 week high at 1.4407. The pound, still being hampered by the strength of the Euro made some gains in late trading yesterday, held overnight in Asia and again on the move back to the 38.2% ret level at 1.6340 at time of writing. UK GDP out better than expected, which if falls in line with stock and oil strength could see further upward momentum through the European session.
Cable trading higher in Europe, reaching a high just short of the 38.2% fib level for the weeks trading of 1.6340 at 1.6329. Retraced back to 1.63 before pushing higher once again. Resistance at 1.6340 ahead of 1.6360 and 1.6390 (50% ret level for the week). Support at 1.6270.
Euro coming off the highs of yesterday of 1.44 now trading at 1.4365. The sell off against sterling assisting in the move down. Confidence coming in higher than forecast giving a short-lived boost, now coming off once again. Support at 1.4330 (38.2% fib level for the weeks trading) ahead of 1.43. Resistance at 1.4360 ahead of the highs yesterday of 1.44/10.
Yen selling off during this mornings trading against the dollar, Euro and the pound as stocks advance further in European trading. Back below the 94 level at time of writing, the US equity futures will give direction along with the oil prices. Should stocks continue their move northwards, expect the dollar to strengthen against the yen as the risks push higher on the crosses. Resistance for dollar yen, 94 (38.2% fib level) above 94.20 (50% level). Support at 93.60 ahead of 93.40 ahead of 93.20.
Stocks and oil the key drivers for today's direction.
Yen the currency of choice in recent trading as it gains across all majors over the last week, particular interest against the Euro as the single currency has also held its own. The yens gain against the Euro has been the largest since July. China's plan to slow down steel and cement production added to the Yens gains and Asian stocks decline overnight indicating the economic recovery is not as near as originally thought. Stocks during the US session showed marginal gains along with the European trading at time of writing. The pound still taking a battering even though the Nationwide house price data came out far better than expected. The cross with the Euro still adding weight to sterling's decline along with oil prices fall, now trading at $71.22 per barrel.
Cable trading today in a reasonably tight range following the weeks heavy decline reaching a low of 1.6160 during yesterday's trading and a high of 1.6250 overnight. Should we see a convincing break below 1.6170/80, along with oil and stockmarket sell off, expect a move towards yesterdays lows ahead of the 50% fib ret level of 1.6090/00. Resistance (should jobless claims come out better than forecast) at 1.6250 ahead of 1.6270. Above here, a move towards the 38.2% ret level for the week at 1.6335/40.
Euro trading steadily moving northwards once again having reached lows of 1.4210 in yesterday's trading, now at 1.4260 at time of writing. Should jobless claims come out better than forecast this afternoon, expect a move back up above the 50% level for the week at 1.4280/90 ahead of the 38.2% level of 1.4310. The 1.4380 level the next major resistance level. Support at 1.4220 ahead of 1.42. Next level of support back down at 1.41.
The Yen, the strongest currency across the board, coming off its high at 93.40 against the dollar, now trading at 93.60. Support for the dollar yen at the lows of today ahead of 93.15/20. Resistance at 93.80 ahead of 94 (38.2% fib level for the weeks trading). Above here and depending on the initial jobless claims out later today, could see a move back towards the 50% level of 94.30.
Stocks up through US session in yesterdays trading as consumer confidence gains once again, the trend following into Asia. Equities still edging higher in European trading at time of writing. With oil and gold edging higher you would expect all the risks to be heading north.... the Euro seems to be the stable currency, certainly over the last trading sessions, holding ground against the dollar and rangebound against the yen. Good German IFO figures (business confidence) out this morning giving the single currency the lift along with the weakening of the pound now trading at 0.8780. US homesales and mortgage applications out this afternoon the key figures to watch for market direction out later this afternoon.
Cable still falling having come off the highs of 1.6355 reaching lows of 1.6291, having broken through the 3 month 38.2% fibonacci level of 1.6320. Retracing from the lows of today's trading at time of writing, further downside pressure likely as European stocks finding it difficult to maintain momentum. Should we see a convincing break below 1.6285/90, expect a move towards the 17 August low of 1.6265/70 before a drive towards the 1.61 level. Resistance at 1.6350 (highs of today) ahead of next fib level of 1.6375 (23.6%). Preference for further downside pressure as long as the stocks continue to falter.
Euro trading at 1.4310 at time of writing with no sign of letting up. Looking at the 3 month chart there is a resistance barrier between 1.4375 and 1.4351. Having now had four attempts at breaking this level, a sell off will be likely before a drive north to break the barrier as long as stocks and oil continue to trade with bullish tones. Resistance at 1.4350 ahead of the range mentioned previously. Support at 1.43 ahead of the 38.2% fib level of 1.4250. Next key support 1.4210.
The Yen still holding ground across the board continuing to put pressure on the dollar, trading below the 38.2% fib level of 94.25 for the week, heading towards the next key support level of 93.80/90. Should this level break and hold, expect a further drive towards 93.40. Resistance at 94.45/50 ahead of 94.70. Preference for today is further downside pressure.
Stocks seen rallying once again through the US session Friday as economic data for both Europe and the US came out better than expected. Comments made from the FED chairman stating that the economy is most certainly now coming out of the recession then gave the dollar the well needed lift against the pound and the Euro and the yen. The bullish tones continued overnight through Asia and into European trading for the stocks which if continue, could see the US session continue its gains. The industrial new orders for the EMU out this morning giving the Euro the lift against the dollar, cable following at time of writing. Attention now drawn to the UK house prices out tomorrow as the consensus is for a worse than expected level for the month of August which should then be giving strength back to the dollar. Oil blasting higher once again trading over $74 per barrel, giving the risk aversion trades a further lift.
Cable trading today trading from highs of 1.6545 to lows of 1.6438 before rebounding once again to 1.65. With stocks remaining steady and the comments from Trichet and Bernanke at the Federal Reserves Annual meeting over the weekend giving positive statements, expect further gains for the risks. However, Trichet is still retaining an element of pessimism stating that 'we still have a bumpy road ahead'. Resistance at 1.6542 ahead of 1.66. Support at 1.6491 ahead of 1.6450.
Euro strengthening against the dollar and the pound in this mornings trading reaching 0.8698 from a low of 0.8658 and 1.4360 high, 1.4280 low for eurodollar. Resistance at 1.4360/65 ahead of Friday's highs of 1.4377/80. Support at 1.43 ahead of 1.4250. With oil and stocks heading north, expect further gains in early US trading.
Yen suffering against the dollar reaching a high of 95.07 from a low of 94.24 (38.2% fib level for the week). Currently trading at 94.67 expect further sell off short term ahead of the US trading session. Oil, gold and the stocks the key for the direction of today. Should stocks continue their gain expect further dollar strength. Conversely, should the stocks sell off, expect a move back towards the 38.2% fib level and today's lows.
Stocks ending higher in the US even though initial jobless claims came out worse than expected at 576k from 558k last month (forecast 548k). The dollar hit on the information across the board, the Euro gaining the most as recession fears are now subsiding and economic data generally coming out better than expected with France and Germany coming out with better than expected PMI figures. The Yen, the other currency continuing its gains against the dollar reached highs of 93.47 in Asian trading, retraced, now heading back down once again albeit remaining steady against the Euro. The pound seems to be the currency that will be hit the most over the coming sessions mainly due to the huge budget deficit figures out yesterday. Oil still climbing through yesterdays trading and as with the yen, acting as a 'safer' haven. Oil trading at $72.80 at time of writing trading marginally off its highs.
Cable heading lower at time of writing once again coming off the lows of 1.6418 overnight, reaching 1.6510 now trading at 1.6474. Good European data pushing cable lower against the Euro now trading at 0.8670 at time of writing. 1.65 figure now seen as a barrier (50% retracement level for the weeks trading). Now heading now for the 1.6450 level again seen as a support barrier which if breaks, could see a move back down toward the 1.6385 level ahead of the 3 month 38.2% level of 1.6320.
Euro strengthening against the pound and the dollar, the yen still stronger. Trading currently at 1.4290 having squeezed above 1.43 on the release of better than expected PMI data. Should stocks and oil continue to move northwards, we could see a return 1.4325 ahead of 1.44. Struggling currently to break and hold the 1.43 barrier, a retracement back towards 1.4285 ahead of 1.4245.
The Yen trading higher across the board as Chinese stocks headed south on the basis that they wish to curb lending from banks (seen as being the reason for the 60% rally in the stockmarket). Along with dollar, now trading at 93.70, the pound is trading lower at 1.5460 at time of writing. Resistance at 94.25 (38.2% ret level for the week) ahead of 94.50. Support now at 93.70 ahead of 93.50.
Better than expected retail figures for July have given sterling the early boost spiking to 1.6610 in this mornings trading. European stocks also higher at time of writing having followed Asian equities and the boost seen in the US yesterday. The EIA crude figures coming out far less than expected thus giving the huge move northwards for oil, heading back over the $72 per barrel. The risks gained ground on the information, the Yen however holding onto gains reaching 93.66 against the dollar.
Cable trading today coming off the highs of 1.6610 as the UK announces a record budget deficit of £8 billion. Now trading at 1.6520 at time of writing, some 100 points down on the day so far, expect further sell off towards the 50% ret level of 1.6460/70 to come into play. Oil and gold also down currently also assisting in the downside pressure. However, as stocks continue to rise and US equity futures continue and open higher, we could easily reverse the retracement to head back up over 1.66. This is now the third attempt during August at pushing to hold gains over the 1.66 level. Resistance at 1.6560 ahead of the barrier of 1.66. Support at 1.65/05 ahead of 1.6460. Euro pound trading higher this morning, now trading over 0.86.
Eurodollar pushing higher at 1.4220 at time of writing, the cross with sterling and yen giving the boost this morning. As stocks continue to rise, a further move northwards back to the highs of today of 1.4267 possible. A symmetrical triangle forming indicating consolidation. The jobless claims out later today along with the continued stock market gains would indicate the move northwards. Support at 1.4190 ahead of 1.4155 (38.2% ret level for the weeks trading).
The yen loosing ground this morning across the board trading at 94.20 against the dollar and 134.15/20 against the Euro. Starting to head lower at time of writing which if continues could see a return back below the 94 level and the 93.40 level comes into view. The jobless claims the key economic data this afternoon. The concerns about the continual pumping of cash into the American economy weighing heavy on the dollar which will only boost the yen as a 'safe haven' trade. Preference today is to sell dollar yen looking for a move back towards 93.60.
Stocks ending higher in the US yesterday along with European trading as UK data regarding CPI rose far better than expected. US data regarding housing and PPI albeit not affecting the steady growth in equities. Cable reaching a high of 1.6595 in Asian trading, down some 200 points in European trading to 1.6395 at time of writing. Metal prices seemingly the drive towards dollar strength initially, however poor US data yesterday will naturally be having affect on the retracement. Germanys PPI also coming in worse than expected giving the bearish tones for the Euro.
Cable trading today currently below the 1.64 level which if holds along with continued equity sell off will see a return back to the 3 month 38.2% fib level of 1.6320. Beyond here, 1.63. Resistance at 1.64 ahead of the 1.6450 (38.2% ret level for the week), US equity futures having to continue to show gains before the opening to see a return in the risk aversion trading. Preference is for further pressure on the pound to head back towards 1.6320.
Eurodollar currently trading around 1.41 at time of writing having reached highs of 1.4170/75 during Asian trading overnight. Poor German PPI the cause of the slide along with the sell off from the stocks. Support now at 1.4070 (38.2% fib level for the past 3 months trading) ahead of 1.4050 and 1.4010. Below here the 1.3950 level comes into view being the 50% fib ret level for the last 3 months. Resistance at 1.4110 ahead of 1.4150 (38.2% level for the week). Preference is for further downside pressure as long as the highs of today are not reached.
Dollar Yen hovering around the 38.2% fib level at 94.45 looking for a move southwards to 94.10 ahead of 93.40 (23.6% for the last 3 months trading). Stocks the key to the dollar sell off against the Yen. Resistance at 94.50 ahead of 94.80 (23.6% fib level for the weeks trading). Preference is for further downside pressure. Sell at 94.50/60 for a limit at 94.10.
European stocks rising this morning as the ZEW survey along with the US housing forecasts are likely to come out better than the previous month showing that confidence in the eurozones economic sentiment is moving to optimistic rather than pessimistic along with housing starts getting a boost in the states. Having had such a huge sell off during the US session and a minor increase in the Asian, look for a short term (very) return to risk appetite, however, the consensus is still for a drive lower and the return to dollar and Yen strength. Stocks and oil remain the key indicators for today's trading, oil back above $67 per barrel, gold also trading higher at time of writing.
Cable trading for today at 1.6390 at time of writing coming off lows of 1.6325. Look for the cable trade to follow eurodollar during the European session as the ZEW survey is the economic data to watch this morning. As expectation is for a rise in confidence, expect further gains towards the 1.6450 level (38.2% fib level for the weeks trading). Should the stocks, oil and gold during the US session continue to rise again on expectation that the housing starts are due to come out better than forecast, a move towards the 1.65 level not out view. However, with UK CPI along with retail figures out later this morning looking to come out below those June, a return back to 1.6385 ahead of 1.6330 not out of the question. Preference is for a gain during this mornings session into the US.
Eurodollar trading this morning looking to add to gains from the lows of 1.4065 now trading at 1.4110 at time of writing. The ZEW survey the key to the euros trading for today, look for a move back to the 38.2% fib level of 1.4150 which if holds expect a move towards 1.4180/90. Stocks the main indicator for today's trading, further gains bullish for the eurodollar, a sell off during the US session, dollar strength. As the US housing starts are due to come out better than expected, a move northwards the likely path. A good selling opportunity exists should the eurodollar reaches the 1.4180 level.
Yen this morning down across the board, the Euro gaining some 200 points for the day so far. Expect a return to Yen strength as the risk aversion trades likely to run out of steam. The stocks once again the key to today's trading. Resistance at 95.55/60 ahead of 95.95/00. A good selling opportunity should the dollar yen hits the latter for a move back down towards 95.15 ahead of 95 and 94.70.
Stocks plunged in US trading on Friday as the Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence index fell sharply for the month of August to 63.2 from last months 66 along with poor CPI data. The selling continued throughout the Asian session overnight where the Nikkei closed over 3% down at 10,268.61 as earnings for the likes of Sony and BHP Billiton (mining co.) along Japanese GDP figures coming out worse than expected. Selling pressure on equity markets have had a huge affect on risk appetite where selling has continued throughout this morning also, the pound now below the 1.6350 level, hitting lows of 1.6325 and the Euro at 1.4110. UK data out this morning from Rightmove showed the house price index decline for the month of August to -2.2% from 0.6 in July.
Oil and gold down at time of writing as stocks tumble and the 'safe haven' of the dollar gains. Oil back well below the$70 per barrel level at $66.35. The consensus is for a move higher for oil as we move into the hurricane season which could see further selling pressure on the dollar over the coming weeks. Gold at 940.70 at time of writing.
Cable trading today currently at 1.6350 having hit lows just shy of the 3 month 38.2 fibonacci level of 1.6319 at 1.6324. The house price index giving the push down during this mornings session. Should the stocks continue its sell off during the European session and into the US expect further downside pressure back below the lows of today. The 1.6320 level being a major support barrier which if breaks and holds could see a move back towards 1.6275/80 ahead of 1.61 (50% fib ret level for the last 3 months). Resistance at 1.64 ahead of 1.6430 (23.6% fib level for the past weeks trading). Should retracement continue above 1.6460, expect a move towards the 1.6485 (38.2% level for the week).
Eurodollar off from the highs during the Asian session at 1.4205 to trade currently at 1.4120. The cross against the Yen being the main driving force as Asian stocks tumbled overnight. The economic data out later this morning from the EMU the next key for direction. Should stocks continue to fall as with the cable trade, expect further downside pressure below the lows of today to the weeks lows of 1.4080/90. The next support coming in at the 38.2% level comes into view at 1.40.65/70 which if continues, could see the return below 1.40. Resistance at 1.4160 ahead of 1.4180 and 1.42.
The Yen strengthening across the board as stock fell overnight in Asia. Against the dollar currently trading at 94.50 having hit lows of 94.35 (38.2% fib level for the last 3 months trading). Should we see continued sell off from the stocks and a break below this support level, expect further downside pressure on the dollar towards 94 ahead of 93.40. Resistance at 94.80 ahead of 95.15. A convincing break above this level expect a return to the 38.2% level for the weeks trading at 95.60.
Stocks up across the board once again over the last three sessions as earnings come out better than expected. Initial Jobless claims yesterday coming slightly worse than had been forecast although the continuing claims better than expected. Oil and gold up also this morning and not showing any signs of selling off during the European session. The risk aversion trades coming off their highs with eurodollar still below the 1.42 level and cable having driven back below the 1.65 figure to 1.6485. Not much economic data out today so trading expected to be light.
Cable trading for today hovering around the 1.6550 at time of writing having hit the low of 1.6485. Should the trend continue northwards and break above the 1.6580 expect the move to 1.6640/45 (38.2% level for the week). Stocks through the US session have to continue their gains for this move to happen. Support back down at 1.6535 ahead of 1.65 and 1.6485. Preference today would be to buy above 1.6585, limiting just before the key resistance level at 1.6630. Should stocks during the US session sell off, a sell position at 1.6510 with a limit at 1.6485 (low for the day).
Eurodollar this morning still below 1.43 which is seen as a key resistance level. Should it break and hold, expect a move towards yesterdays highs of 1.4330. As with cable, stock futures from the US the key to market direction as economic data out today remains light. Support at 1.4255/60 ahead of 1.4225 (38.2% retracement level for the week).
Dollar yen continued its sell off through this mornings session hitting lows of 94.85. Trading at 95.15 at time of writing, further downside pressure expected. 94.46 the next key support level (38.2% for the last three months trading). Resistance now at 95.30 ahead of 95.95/00.
Stocks back on the move northwards once again, the US session up 1.3%, following overnight through Asia and now into the European session. The FEDs decision yesterday remained unchanged however the statements reference the recovery of the economic downturn is underway were very well received pushing the risks higher in tandem. The German and French economies expand unexpectedly showing that Europe is right behind the US as far as recovery is concerned. The overall consensus now is that we are coming out of the depths of global recession which was once again highlighted again as the PGC Index (measure of confidence) pushed over the 50% level to 58.12% for the month of August (from 39.13 in July) indicating the optimists outweigh the pessimists for the first time this year.
Cable continuing its upward trend currently at 1.6560 having hit a low of 1.6474 during the Asian session. The highs just short of 1.66 still in view as stocks, oil, gold and economic data all point to a bullish start to the European session. Should the tones continue through this session and onto the US, expect a move back towards 1.66 ahead of the 38.2% fibonacci level for the weeks trading at 1.6645. Beyond here, 1.67 ahead of 1.6720 (50% level). Support at 1.6535 ahead of 1.65 and today's lows of 1.6474.
Eurodollar climbing on the economic data from Germany and France came out better than expected along with better than expected GDP figures for the eurozone, now trading at 1.4260 having reached highs of 1.4272. Should stocks, oil and gold continue to rise, expect a move towards 1.43. Beyond here, 1.4310/15 ahead of 1.4370/80. The 1.43 level will be the barrier to break convincingly for any further uptrend, even if the stocks continue to head north. Support at 1.4268/70 ahead of stronger support at 1.4225 (38.2% fib ret level for the week). Beyond here, 1.4180 comes into view.
Dollar yen continuing its move higher from the lows today at 95.80 currently trading at 96.30, highs for the day of 96.50. Should the risks continue their move northwards expect further advance to the 38.2% fib level of 96.60 ahead of 97. Support at 96.20 ahead of the lows of 95.80.
Stocks down across the board through the US session, Asian and now into the European as earnings reports come out worse than expected. Dollar and the Yen both benefiting from the fall assisted by a sell off from oil and gold. Oil now below the $70 per barrel once again, gold just over $944. Sterling being hit once again as jobless claims and the unemployment rate out worse than expected with the rate now at 7.8%. The BOE's meeting later today regarding inflation the key to today's trading, ahead of the rate decision from the US later today.
Cable trading at 1.6430 at time of writing, falling from the highs of 1.6525 through the Asian session. With poor employment data out this morning and the BOE report regarding inflation out today, the pound is finding it difficult to retrace and is likely to continue its sell off as long as the other key indicators of stocks, oil and gold still head south. Resistance at 1.65 ahead of the highs overnight of 1.6525. Support back down towards 1.64 ahead of the 1.6390 (lows for the day) and 1.6325. The next heavy band of key support 1.6165/70 (38.2% fib ret level for the last 3 months trading).
Eurodollar currently trading near the lows for the weeks trading at 1.4111 at time of writing having made two attempt at breaking the 1.41 level. Should the 1.41 level break and hold, expect a move towards 1.4090 ahead of 1.4060 (38.2% ret level for the last 3 months trading) being the next key support level. The strength of the Dollar and the Yen assisting in the downside pressure. Resistance at 1.4180/90 which if breaks, expect a move towards 1.4220 and 1.4240 (38.2% level for the week). Should the report out today from the BOE be negative, look for the euro/pound to gain which in turn could give the move northwards for eurodollar. Stocks along with oil and gold also the key indicators for today.
Yen strengthening across the board, against the dollar hitting the 95.10 as predicted in yesterdays report. Currently trading at 95.70, support remains at 95.50 ahead of the lows at 95.10. Resistance at 95.80 ahead of 96 and 96.20.
The RICS house price balance for the month of July came out better than expected up 1.7% giving sterling a lift through the Asian session reaching a high of 1.6525. The Euro pound trade reaching 85.64 before retracing once again northwards. Germany's CPI figures also coming out better than expected giving the Euro a lift against the pound as already stated along with the dollar. Expect steady trading today ahead of the FEDs interest decision out tomorrow along with the BOE inflationary report. European stocks trading higher at time of writing, again from better than expected housing data, following on from the Asian session also ending in the green.
Cable trading today still coming of against the dollar even though we have had good data out from the U.K. giving the pound the lift. Retracing now at time of writing currently trading at 1.6445, having been the second attempt to drive lower. The BOE announcement tomorrow weighing on the pounds drive northwards, however with both gold and oil moving into the green, don't expect the dollar just to continue its bullish tones. Should the dollar continue its drive below and holding 1.6435, expect a move towards 1.64 ahead of 1.6355. Should the US session for stocks continue its decline from yesterdays trading, look for the move towards the three month 38.2% fib level of 1.6170 to come into play. Resistance at 1.6525 ahead of 1.6578/80. Preference is for further downside pressure on the pound during today's trading.
Euro trading at 1.4170 coming from the lows yesterday at 1.4105 and the lows today of 1.4122/25. Good CPI figures from Germany along with the pounds decline against the dollar giving the move northwards. Should we see a move above the weeks 23.6% fib level of 1.4185 and breaks 1.42.20, expect a move towards 1.4235 (38.2% level). Support at 1.4128 which if breaks, expect a move back to the lows of yesterday ahead of 1.4080 and 1.4020.
The Dollar/Yen trading at 96.80 having come off its lows from 96.58. Having hit resistance just below the 23.6% fib level for the week at 97 and struggling to break, expect a further drop towards 96.50 ahead of 96.10 (50% fib level for the week). Resistance at 97 ahead of 97.25 and 97.50.
Stocks ending higher during the US session on Friday as Julys jobless claims came out 100k better than expected. The dollar also gained across the board, against the Yen seen the largest move for a month ending the day at 97.80 from lows of 94.75. The Euro seen spiking to 1.4410/15 before correlating with the stock market and heading to lows of 1.4150, Cable the same story 1.6835 to 1.6650. Oil and gold both down this morning along with European stocks at time of writing. The dollar seems to have turned a corner reference market data. Where we have seen for some months, good US data equalling stocks rise and subsequent dollar fall, the correlation with the stocks along with its own haven status seems to be returning.
Cable trading for today still heading lower as the European stocks continue to fall this morning. As data out today is thin, expect further downside pressure on the cable as the jobless claims information continues to assist the greenback, along with the BOE inflation reports out on Wednesday faltering the pounds retracement. Stock trading during the US session seen a key indicator for the dollar direction this afternoon in thin summer season trading conditions. Having broken through the 38.2% ret level of 1.6660 for the months trading, expect further downside movements towards the 50% level of 1.6540. Resistance at 1.6655 ahead of 1.6670 and 1.6710 ( the highs for the day).
Euro trading for today seen retracing during the Asian session onto the European. Reaching a high today of 1.4220, seen dropping once again currently trading at 1.4190 at time of writing. Should we see declining stocks through the US session, expect further dollar strength pushing to the lows on Friday at 1.4150 to extend the move to 1.41. Resistance at 1.4215 ahead of 1.4240 ( 38.2% ret level for the month ) ahead of 1.4265 and 1.43.
The dollar yen trading for the day seen coming off the highs of 97.80 (Asia) to 97.05, having seen a double top. Currently trading at 97.38, a move below 97 would indicate a further retracement back to 96.50 (38.2% level for the week) ahead of 96.10. Resistance at the 97.75/80 level and if breaks and holds, a move to 98.50/60 the next heavy level.
European stocks down ahead of the non farm payrolls out later today also being pushed lower by the report from RBS which posted a 1 billion dollar loss. The rate decision in the UK remained the same however the QE measures taken by King where far more aggressive than expected. Sterling crumbled across the board from 1.6996 to 1.6822 for cable on the news and 84.55 to 85.50 for Euro pound. Dollar gaining during this mornings trading once again however static for the last hour. At 1.6735/40 currently awaiting US data. Consensus is that jobless claims dropped at a slower pace, albeit heading in the right direction, however, the unemployment rate is due to increase, and not even to stabilise until mid 2010.
Cable trading for today awaiting the US data. Should jobless claims come out better than expected, stocks should gain a lift through the US session and the risks are back into play and could see a return to the 38.2% levels for the week at 1.6828/30. The news reference RBS however may stunt the stock gains giving the emphasis and control back to the dollar. Support now at 1.6690. Beyond this point, and stocks continue to fall, expect a move towards 1.6570, even to 1.6470. Resistance at 1.6760 ahead of the previously mentioned fib level of 1.6828/30.
Euro trading for today, currently at 1.4367 having come from the lows of yesterday at 1.4335. Again as with cable, the jobless claims the key for today. As they are due to come out better than expected, a move northwards back to 1.4380 ahead of 1.44. Support at 1.4330 ahead of 1.43 and 1.4270 (38.2% fib level for the week).
Yen today trading higher against the dollar at 95.15 at time of writing. Support at 94.90 ahead of 94.70. Should we break that level, expect a move back towards the lows for the week at 94.35. Resistance at 95.30 ahead of 95.50 to 95.80.
Stocks ending lower yesterday during the US session as worse than expected unemployment figures were released. With good economic data coming from the UK along with overall sentiment positive, the sterling lifted to new highs of 1.7045 and 84.62 against the Euro. Stocks through Asia increased which has continued into the European session albeit the rate decisions slowing the trading at time of writing.
For the cable, should the BOE increase its purchases and continue with its QE program, expect the pound to weaken sharply and head back to the 1.69 level, even to the 1.6850 should there be no comments on 'seeing an end' to the recession and subsequently the QE programme. Currently trading at 1.6995, support as mentioned, resistance at 1.7015/18 ahead of the highs of 1.7044. Should the BOE indicate an end to QE and decide that no further purchases necessary, the 1.7330 level remains in tact. Any move below the 1.69 level, more at 1.6880 should be seen as a buying opportunity for today.
Euro trading today, still within that range spoken about yesterday currently trading at 1.4390. The eurodollar reached a high of 1.4447 however faltered and continued its downturn overnight in Asia. Resistance at 1.44 ahead of 1.4421. Support now at 1.4355 ahead of 1.4280 (38.2% fib ret level). ECB comments that the economy is finding its feet sooner than expected, however it is on a gradual basis and shouldn't be seen as a green light to the end of the recession or indeed any further measures to stabilise the economy.
Stocks in the US ending higher yesterday, Asian stock stumbling across the board overnight as profit taking ensues. Poor earnings from UK banks pushed the pound lower in early trading, albeit coupled with better than expected Nationwide consumer confidence out late last night along with Halifax house prices this morning rising once again have lifted the cable back towards the Asian highs of 1.6955/60. European stocks down at time of writing. The risk aversion trades are likely to be coming under pressure as we await interest rate decisions, the BOEs QE measures and the all important job reports out tomorrow.
Trading for the cable today continuing its recovery back towards the 1.70 level a key barrier. Should we see a break above, expect a move towards the 1.7010. Should stocks and oil rally through the European session and through into the US session, expect a drive towards the 1.7330 level. However, with the data out tomorrow along with stock selling, oil and gold down, that barrier unlikely to be broken, certainly over the next 24 hours. Support at 1.6980 ahead of 1.6965 and 1.6950. Should we see continued stock selling, expect a move back to the lows of 1.69. The pound strengthening against the Euro as overall industrial data for the UK coming in better than expected. Now trading at 84.75. Preference, selling the pound below 1.6950 to exit at the 1.69 level.
Euro trading rangebound since the back end of Monday, 1.4449/1.4370. As with the cable trade, data out tomorrow holding off any aggressive trading and only if stocks rise significantly, shall we see any major moves in the single currency. Resistance at 1.44 ahead of the Asian high of 1.4423. Above here to the highs of this year at 1.4445. Support at 1.4370 ahead of 1.4350 and 1.4330. Still expect a rangebound trading session until the ADP reports out later today. Preference to sell below 1.4370 to exit towards the 1.4330 level.
Dollar yen back at the 38.2% ret level for the week at 95.18/20. As risks start to head south once again, expect further selling pressure moving towards 94.90 ahead of 94.65 and 94.40. Resistance barrier at 95.42 (double top in trading yesterday), if breaks a move towards 95.80 on the cards. Preference sell from 95.30 to buy back at 94.90.
Stocks in Europe and the US gained once again yesterday, the S & P pushing past the 1000 barrier, a figure that hasn't been seen since November of last year. The Dow rallied to new highs also, up by 1.25% at 9286 as earnings reports from the likes of HSBC and Barclay came in better than expected along with UK manufacturing expanding to figures not seen since March 2008 at 50.8 against last months figure of 47.4 indicating bullish tones for the pound. Cable overnight through Asian trading squeezing over the 1.70 level, eurodollar reaching highs of 1.4445/50. European stocks this morning predominantly trading lower at time of writing, giving back some of the gains from yesterday. ACfx's daily report yesterday talked of the 2 year 50% fibonacci retracement level of 1.7330 being the next major resistance to break, a level which seems very much in view should we continue to see the gains throughout this week onto Friday, where our attention will turn towards the US non farm payrolls. Expect an element of pullback from the risks before the next drive forward, oil and gold this morning trading lower only assisting the moves.
Cable trading for today coming off its highs through Asian trading at 1.7006 (having broke the level twice and faltered) now trading at 1.6920/25 at time of writing. Should the European stocks continue to fall along with oil and gold, expect a move back towards 1.69 ahead of 1.6880 and 1.6850. Resistance back up at 1.6930 ahead of 1.6980 and 1.70. Should the 1.70 break and hold, expect further gains towards the 1.7050 level ahead of the major resistance at 1.7330. Favouring a corrective pullback towards 1.6850 ahead of the 38.2% fib ret level of 1.6750 before the next move northwards.
Eurodollar today coming off the highs of 1.4430/35 now trading at 1.4390 at time of writing. Should stocks and oil continue to correct, expect a move back towards 1.4330/35 ahead of 1.4310. Beyond here, the 38.2% fib ret level foe the week at 1.4270 seen as the next major support ahead of 1.4220. Resistance at 1.44 ahead of the Asian highs of 1.4430.
The Yen currently trading at the 50% ret level for the weeks trading at 94.95/00 against the dollar at time of writing having reached 95.45 during the Asian session. Further support at 94.75 ahead of 94.50/60. Resistance at 95.44 ahead of 95.80/90.
Overall consensus is further gains for the risks, not before a corrective pullback.
A massive turnaround for the dollar as the risks reverse their positions post GDP figures assisted by soaring oil prices. The dollar continued to fall against all majors in thin trading conditions, the Euro, pound, franc and yen all gaining ground. With oil back above $70 per barrel, along with stocks continuing to push higher, we could all assume that we are out of the recession? In these thinner conditions and the fact that we are heading into the holiday season, gold will be the stable trade as the level of uncertainty within the stockmarkets latest moves continue. Former FED chairman Greenspan however did give stocks a boost stating that the recession may be ending. The fact still remains that no one is stating that we ARE indeed out of the recession, so still expect volatility certainly through the remainder of the summer.
European stocks continuing to move higher this morning assisting the cables lift to 1.6798, up 100 points on the day, the highs for 2009. Also seen strengthening against the Euro this morning which is trading at 84.80 at time of writing. Should the PMI figures come out better than forecast, expect the cable to continue its drive northwards. Next band of resistance at 1.6850. The next major resistance level at the 50% fib ret level for the last 2 years at 1.7330 now seeming achievable should earnings, stocks and oil continue to rise. Support back at 1.68 ahead of 1.6780 and 1.6750.
Eurodollar trading now back below the key resistance level of 1.43, being driven back down from the strength of the pound, not the dollar in early trading. Currently at 1.4275, expect further pressure when reaching the 1.43 figure once again. Should however the Euro follow the sterling trade, and holds above the 1.43 level, expect a move higher to 1.4335 ahead of 1.4370. Support now at 1.4240 ahead of 1.4195 (38.2% ret level for the weeks trading).
Yen also seen gaining now at 94.85 having hit the 38.2 ret level for the week at 95.06. Next support level at 94.60 and if continues, could see a move back down to the lows of Wednesday at 94.00/05. Resistance at 95.05 ahead of 95.20 and 95.50.
Better than expected earnings giving the rise to the stocks along with oil in the US trading session yesterday which followed across into the Asian session. The Dow ended up nearly 84 points during the after hours trading finishing at 9154.46. European stocks currently trading lower, the emphasis today is the US GDP figures to give direction for the last trading day of the month. Whilst earnings figures have generally come out better than expected there have also been some heavy losses with some major companies, still giving the impression that we are not out of the woods yet. The statement that we have seen the stockmarkets rally too fast too soon still very much remaining in tact, expect to see further dollar strength running down the next quarter.
Cable trading for today currently at 1.6545/48 having rallied through the Asian session from 1.6480 reaching a high of 1.6574. Currently in a range of key resistance between 1.6550/55 to 1.6580 (having now had 4 attempts to break this level within the month of July). Should the GDP figures later this afternoon come out better than expected and stocks once again rally, expect a move back up to the highs of 1.6580 ahead of 1.66. Next key resistance above this figure is up at 1.6730/35 and whilst seems a long way off, still very achievable as long as stocks continue to push higher. Support back at 1.6520 ahead of the 38.2% fib level for the week at 1.6485. Should the GDP come out worse than expected, we could see a return back to 1.6457 ahead of the two year 38.2% fib level of 1.6433.
Euro trading today, hitting the weeks 38.2% ret level at 1.4125/30, currently trading some 35/40 points lower at 1.4090 at time of writing. Again as with cable, the US GDP figures being the key for the trading this afternoon. The 1.43 resistance level seems a very long way off and so the bias for today's trading is further sell off, however, should the stocks gain a boost from not only the GDP figures but further better than expected earnings due out later, could see a move back up towards the highs this morning at 1.4145/50 ahead of 1.4160 (50% ret level for the weeks trading), ahead of 1.4195/00.
Dollar soaring against the Yen once again having hit a low at 95.20, now trading at 95.65. GDP once again the key to direction, a better than expected figure showing that the economy is improving will push the figure back over 96 to 96.65/70 ahead of 97.20. Support at 95.40 ahead of the 38.2% ret level for the week at 95.05.
A further day of stock sell off in the states assisting the dollars strength yesterday during the US session, the Dow ending down 26 points, S & P down 4.47 and the NASDAQ down 7.75. The dollar also assisted by further sell off from crude giving the indication as suggested in yesterdays report that the recent rally has been to fast too soon and that a retracement is likely. Overnight through Asia stocks seen rising across the board which has continued though the European session at time of writing. Some earnings reports giving the lift back to the stocks, some strategists stating that we are at the trough, and heading north along with FEDs Bernanke's statement that the worlds largest economy is showing 'tentative signs of stabilisation.
Better than expected Nationwide house price data gave sterling the lift this morning both against the dollar and the Euro gaining some 130 points against the dollar and 60 against the Euro. Concern is still very much alive regarding continuing house price increases as banks are still reluctant to lend to businesses and households. The point at which that is resolved will be the true turning point that the recession is finally over and the economy can then strengthen.
Cable trading today as mentioned up 130 points reference house price data pushing though all of the fibonacci levels to trade at 1.6515 at time of writing. The next barrier at 1.6560 ahead of 1.6585. As stocks in Europe, specifically the UK continue to rise, expect the pound to continue its gain. Jobless claims out later today for the US which if better than expected will only allow cable to rise further. Should they come out worse expect the support at 1.6490 ahead of 1.6465 to be broken ahead of the 2 year 38.2% level at 1.6430/35. Against the Euro, trading statically at time of writing at 85.28.
The eurodollar trade up from the lows of 1.4008 to 1.4080 at time of writing. The gain northwards being halted by the sterling gain although consumer confidence better than expected. Should the trend continue along with the stockmarket rise, expect a move towards the 1.4125/30 (38.2% fib level for the week), having broke the 23.6% level. Should the 38.2% level break and hold, expect a move towards the 1.4160 level ahead of 1.1495. Support at 1.4040 ahead of the lows for the day at 1.4008.
Yen making another move above the 95 level, still not managing to hold the position. Currently trading at the 3 month 38.2% level at 94.85, a solid move northwards would see the yuan heading towards the 95.75 level. Support at 94.70 ahead of 94.50.
The stocks in the States ended their 11 day bullish run yesterday where the Dow closed 0.13% down on the day finishing at 9096.72. The Nikkei higher in Asia overnight albeit stocks overall fell, and European stocks trading higher at time of writing. Worse than expected earnings yesterday seemed the downfall of the markets allowing the dollar to gain some 135 points against the Euro and 165 points against the pound. Oil and gold down on the day indicating that the market hasn't got the steam needed to push for the next levels. UK data coming in slightly lower than expectations so no large reactions. Overall consensus is that the rally has gone 'too far too fast' and a correction is inevitable.
Cable trading today, off the highs of 1.6470, trading now some 100 points lower during the European session. Cable also weakening against the Euro now at 0.8645 at time of writing. Should we continue to see dollar strength, specifically if the US equity futures open lower, then expect a continued move down to 1.6310 ahead of the figure. Resistance back at 1.64 ahead of 1.6415/20. Euro/Pound trades coming off from the highs of 0.8655 now trading at 0.8640. Favouring further downside pressure, not before an element of retracement back towards 1.64.
Eurodollar falling this morning as fears that the rally seen over the last two weeks is running out of steam coupled with the CPI figures from the largest states coming in worse than expected. Support at 1.4130/35 ahead of today's lows of 1.4111. Resistance now at 1.4160 ahead of 1.4185 (38.2% ret level for the weeks trading). The failure to break the 1.43 level and hold indicates further downside pressure along with general consensus that the stocks once again have been overbought. Favouring further sell off specifically should we see a retracement back to the 38.2% fib level of 1.4185.
The Yen trades for today weakening against the dollar coming off the lows at 94.05, now trading at 94.70. Resistance at 94.80 ahead of 95.15/20. Support now down at 94.45/50 (38.2% ret level for the week) ahead of 94.20.
US futures and further stock movement the key for today's trading, keeping an eye on the oil prices.
The demand for the majors against the dollar gained momentum during the Asian trading overnight as comments from the RBA as demand increased for the AUD/YEN thus reversing euro/yens sell off. Asian stocks increased albeit closed where it started (down by 0.01%). Sterling following the euro demand pushing it to highs of 1.6555/60. Struggling at time of writing to push above that level having now formed a double top. The euro this morning the driving force coming off lows of 1.4220 reaching highs of 1.4295. Earnings again seen assisting the risks as stocks advance along with oil and gold this morning. Homesales in the States saw the largest gain in eight years climbing some 11% shedding further light that the economy is certainly showing signs of improvement.
Cable trading for today hitting resistance at 1.6555/60. Should stocks continue to rise, and the barrier broken, expect a move towards 1.6575 ahead of 1.6590 (high for the trading week). Support at 1.6518 ahead of 1.65 and 1.6490 (38.2% fib level for past two trading days). Should US equity futures show signs of rallying expect a bounce from 1.65 back up to the highs of today at 1.6555/60. Favour selling the cable near the return to the days highs of 1.6560 for a move back towards 1.65.
Eurodollar rallied this morning pushing just over the 1.43 level, now retracing back to the 23.6% level of 1.4275. Should a clear break emerge above 1.43, expect a move back towards the June (and years) high of 1.4350 ahead of the longer term projection of 1.4720. Support at 1.4270 ahead of 1.4255 (38.2% ret level for the last two days trading). Earnings still the tool for the direction, should there be further better than forecast earnings results, expect the stocks to rally further into the US session, thus assisting in the risk trades. Favour a sell should the trade falter and fail to break 1.43. Limit the trade at 1.4255, trail beyond that to 1.4240.
The Yen coming of its highs from yesterday at 95.38/40, now trading at 95 figure. Should there be further selling pressure for the dollar, expect a move back towards the 94.45 level (38.2% fib ret level for the weeks trading) ahead of 94.20. Resistance at 95.23/25 ahead of 95.40. Favour a selling opportunity should a break occur below 94.85/90.
Earnings and therefore stocks the key for today's trading. Also keep an eye on the oil prices, up at time of writing only by 0.5%. Consumer confidence also out later today for the States, better than expected a move north for the risks, worse, a move south.
Stocks up in Europe giving the 11th day of gains as consensus from earnings and statements from the FED last week are all indicating the economy showing signs of improvement. Oil also gaining up 1% at time of writing at 68.8. Gold up 0.5% at 960.10. Now that the Dow has broken the 9000 level indicating investors are becoming comfortable coming back into the markets, expect to see correlation with the dollar once again. Big earnings week ahead, really giving the indication for direction for the rest of the year.... the make or break time.
Cable trading coming off from the highs of 1.6525 having hit lows of 1.6380/85. Currently trading at 1.6440/50 (38.2% fib level for the week, and for the last two trading days). Should the trend continues expect a move towards 1.6420 ahead of the lows of today of 1.6380. Resistance at 1.6480 ahead of 1.6515 and the highs of 1.6525. Favouring further downside pressure for the cable today albeit keep an eye on the euro/pound trade as demand has stabilised the dollar strength at time of writing.
Euro trading today coming off from the highs of 1.4260/65 to now trade at 1.4235 at time of writing. Expect a move towards 1.42 15/20 (38.2% fib level) ahead of the 50% level at 1.42. Resistance at the high of today, again, as with cable, downside pressure favoured. Germany's import price data coming in worse than expected along with the consumer loan growth declining to the slowest rate in history.
The Dollar/Yen today trading higher today having reached a low of 94.65 now trading at 95.05 at time of writing having reached a high of 95.15. Support back at 94.75 ahead of 94.45/50. A move higher favoured towards the high of today moving onto the high of Friday of 95.30.
Stocks in the US rallied to highs yesterday, the Dow breaking that mile stone figure of 9000, closing at 9069.29 some 2.12% up as earnings reports and housing data came out far better than expected. However, the earnings for Microsoft and Amex coming in after the bell disappointed the market. The Euro fell 80 points on the release of the information. Asian stocks also rallied, the Nikkei up 1.5% in overnight trading. European stocks this morning trading flat at time of writing indicating a slower start and a retracement for the dollar. Good PMI figures from Germany out this morning giving the lift back above 1.42 Oil now trading at 67.20 level, up once again, gold down at time of writing.
Cable trading today off from the highs of 1.6540/50 now trading at 1.6440. Should it break the 50& ret level of 1.6430 for the week, expect further downward movement towards 1.6390 ahead of 1.6350/60. Resistance at 1.6465 ahead of 1.6515. Stock movements still remain the key to the direction of the dollar as we are into the 10th day of the rally, expect a retracement. Nice head and shoulder pattern emerged for the cable indicating further dollar strength.
Euro trading today gained a lift from better than expected PMI figures from Germany along with cable weakness assisting the move. Currently trading at 1.4210 coming off its high of 1.4228. Should stocks falter later today during the US session, expect a move back towards 1.4180 ahead of 1.4150. Resistance at 1.4230 ahead of 1.4240. The earnings out yesterday that came out worse than expected will lay heavy in today's trading though the US.
Stocks rising in Europe this morning once again having rallied through Asia overnight. Ended down in the US yesterday indicating a slowing down from the rally over the last week. Oil and gold both down again assisting the view that before we get that push to 9000 on the Dow for Q3, we will see dollar strength once again. Whilst Bernankes comments were bullish along with a smattering of better than forecast earnings, the sentiment is now for a sell off from the risks as the economy still isn't strong enough just yet to make a full recovery. Sterling gaining as retail sales figures came out better than expected for June up 1.2% against a forecast of 0.3%. The jobless claims out later today will be the key for US trading direction this afternoon.
Cable trading at 1.6530/35 at time of writing having hit a high of 1.6540. Should the trend continue and stocks in Europe gain, expect a move to the weeks high and key resistance of 1.6560. Support now at 1.65 ahead of 1.6480/85 with further support at 1.64 50/55 (38.2 fib level over the last two days). Pound gaining against the Euro today once again, better than expected retail figures giving the lift. Now trading at .8610 at time of writing.
Euro trading for the day currently at 1.4230/35 having hit a high of 1.4260/65. Stocks in Europe trading flat, awaiting data from the states later for the direction of the risks. Resistance at 1.4240 ahead of the high today of 1.4260/65. Support at 1.4225 (38.2% fib level over the last two days) ahead of 1.4210 and 1.42 figure. General consensus is that the stock rally seen over the past week will now falter and the emphasis will be back to the dollar. Favouring a move back towards 1.42 for today.
Bernankes statements regarding the stabilising of the economy gave an overall positive reaction to trading yesterday. The seventh straight day for gains pretty much across the board for stocks being assisted by better than expected earnings for many companies (Caterpillar, Apple) albeit financials came under a bit of pressure due to CIT and its bankruptcy fears, giving dollar strength for most of the day which when taking a look at the charts this morning, is continuing its gain against the risks, specifically cable. The Euro and yen still driving northwards against the pound which is giving further weakness for cable. Oil and gold static at time of writing albeit oil had a lift from the earnings yesterday.
We seem to be seeing signs of correlation between the dollar and the stocks which was only assisted by those bullish tones from the FED Chairman. The steadying of the economy in the US will start to roll out across the rest of the world towards the end of 2009, beginning of 2010.
Cable continuing to be being pounded from all angles. The Dollar, Yen and Euro are all up this morning against sterling with no signs of let up yet. Currently trading at 1.6325/30, next support at 1.63 ahead of 1.6260/70 (lows for the week and the 38.2% ret level for the month). Resistance at 1.6350 ahead of 1.6375 and 1.64. Should stocks fall of today significantly, expect heavy dollar strength. Conversely, further stock advance will give the risks a lift, not with the same aggression should we get a fall. Euro/pound trading at 86.85 at time of writing, next stop north 87 (high for the month) ahead of 87.40. Support at 86.60 (38.2% ret level for the last 3 months) which if broken, expect a move towards 86.40 ahead of 86.
Eurodollar eventually managing to break the 1.42 level having had a low over the last 2 days of 1.4160. Trading at 1.4175 (low for the day), as with cable, should the stocks sell off today, expect a deeper move towards 1.4160 ahead of 1.4125 and 1.4110 (38.2% for the month). Resistance at 1.42 ahead of 1.4230.
Stocks during the US session and again in Asia showing bullish tones once again. Bernankes comments in the WSJ that there will be no exit from the QE programme anytime soon will certainly affect the trading today. The risk appetite currencies having come off highs of 1.6550 for the cable and 1.4250 for eurodollar. Equities in Europe up this morning marginally however already seen a sell off from the risks where cable is trading at 1.6449 at time of writing, eurodollar hitting lows of 1.4185/90, now retraced to 1.42.25/30. Yen seen strengthening against the dollar throughout yesterday and into the European open coming off its lows of 94.81, now trading at 94.10. Trading very much falling in line with our snapshot yesterday. Oil trading marginally higher this morning along with gold.
Cable hitting the 38.2% retracement level of 1.6435 following onto a low of 1.6425. Not enough weight to break this level, however support still at 1.6395/00 ahead of 1.6380. If stocks continue to gain for the seventh straight day expect a move back up towards 1.6480 ahead of 1.6520/25 and 1.6550. Coming off the lows against the Euro having traded at 85.90 early this morning, now at 85.50.
Euro trading today hit a low of 1.4180/85 now trading at 1.4215, having hit a high of 1.4235/40. Looking for a break below 1.4200/10 for a deeper move towards 1.4170 ahead of 1.4120. As with yesterdays report, resistance at 1.4250 ahead of 1.43. Strengthening against the pound today which seems to be limiting the cables upside momentum this morning.
Bernankes statement the key for the day. We are now in the seventh day of stock rally, however clearly seeing signs of light equity trading in Europe ahead of the meeting.
Stocks along with oil heading north once again after a huge push northwards last week as data from the states very favourable to a bottoming out of the economic slowdown. Companies will be finding it difficult to come up with good earnings short term as jobs are still in the heavy zone, albeit coming off the highs over the last weeks. UK housing data assisting in the lift pushing cable back up to 1.6550 region, now subsiding to 1.6515 at time of writing. Eurodollar reaching highs of 1.4250, now at 1.4230. Yen coming off its highs against the dollar of 91.75, now trading at 94.50. We seem to be back on target for the push towards 9000 for the Dow for Q3, however don't fully bank on it coming easily from here. Many believe that the recent dollar strength (stock weakness) is now done with and the risks are back in the frame, however, banks need to be lending more, companies limiting their job cuts for short to medium term to hit that figure for the Dow.
Cable today coming off its highs now at 1.6490/00 heading for the 38.2% ret level for the day at 1.6470 for a further move towards 1.6440. Resistance at 1.65 ahead of 1.6550, assuming stocks and oil continue to gain. Coming of f the lows against the Euro trading at 86.22 at time of writing. Heading for the 50% ret level of 86.25 for the week, struggling to break and so expect a move back down towards 86.10 ahead of 85.80.
Euro traders today rangebound between 1.4250 and 1.4215. Looking for a break below 1.4200/10 for a deeper move towards 1.4170 ahead of 1.4120. Resistance at 1.4250 ahead of 1.43. Watch the trading of the stocks through the US session along with oil for direction. Meeting heavy resistance when reaching the 1.4250 level.
Stocks trading in and around where they started in Europe this morning, the Dow finishing slightly up at session end yesterday. Oil and gold still falling during European session giving the lift back to the dollar. Now trading at 1.6220 (from a high of 1.6375 as of yesterdays trading session) for cable and 1.3880 for eurodollar (highs yesterday of 1.4070). UK PPI figures mixed, up on input, down on output albeit not really affecting direction. The strength of the dollar is most certainly being driven by the earnings figures out next week which are expected to disappoint. The 'safe haven' Yen also trading higher across the board again through worries for next weeks earnings. G8 meeting ending today, no surprises there, global recession to be continuing for the foreseeable future, certainly until the end of the year and into Q1 of 2010. Our prediction that the dollar will strengthen over the summer, retrace during Q4 allowing the stocks to head back towards 9000 still very much in line with the correlation of stocks and dollar at the back end of the year into 2010 still very much in play.
Cable trading this morning through the 1.6230 area and onto 1.6115 at time of writing. If continues, look for a move towards 1.6180 ahead of 1.6150 (38.2% ret level for the week). Resistance at 1.6250 ahead of 1.6275/00. With stocks, oil and gold along with the G8 meeting outcome all showing signs of gloom, The strengthening of the dollar seems to be the only direction. Only saving grace for the risks will be the continuation of stock buying during the US session this afternoon, but with the earning forecasts for next week to be adverse, unlikely.
Eurodollar this morning plummeting albeit finding support at the 1.3880 level from highs yesterday of 1.4075. As with cable, nothing to stop the fall as earnings next week. The Yen also gaining ground against the single currency, along with the pound. Should we break and hold 1.3900, expect a move back towards 1.3880 ahead of 1.3840 (lows of the week). Resistance at 1.3930 ahead of 1.3955/60 and 1.3980. US session only saving grace right now for the Euro. Down some 200 points since the highs of yesterday, good selling opportunity should we get a retracement back to 1.3950/60.
US stocks ending up higher yesterday as auctions well received along with comments from the FED reference the recession coming to an end towards the end of this year, certainly into 2010, falling inline with our predictions. Stocks falling throughout the Asian session by 1.4% pulling the Yen from its highs against the dollar from 91.80 to now trading at 92.85/90. European stocks trading higher this morning as trade balance data from Germany and UK came out better than expected. UK rate decision out later this morning, no surprises there we feel however await their comments reference the growth of the economy. US jobless claims out also, if better than expected could see a push northwards for the stocks. Oil up at time of writing by 2% at time of writing along with gold.
Cable trading today off from the lows sub 1.60 as of yesterday now trading at 1.62. Should we break and hold that expect a move towards the 1.6250 level (50% fib retracement for the week). Support at 1.6180 ahead of 1.6130 and 1.6110. UK rate and jobless claims the key for today's direction.
Eurodollar coming off the highs of 1.3980 (50% fib ret level for the week) now trading at 1.3960. If continues expect a move towards 1.3945 ahead of 1.39. Support at 1.3980 ahead of 1.4020. Jobless claims out later for the direction which if better than expected will see further risk appetite.
Another pounding yesterday for the stocks in the US, down nearly 2%. Dollar and Yen strengthening across the board, oil down to $62.37 at time of writing giving the indications, as with yesterdays report that we are still in for further dollar strength. European stocks also trading lower this morning, having had a small lift into the green territory albeit very short lived. The fear that the earnings reports are going to show further weakness in the global economy and therefore the recession extending is certainly giving the lift to the greenback. Still bear in mind the uncertainty with the dollar as the worlds global reserve currency. We may see an element of retracement after the G8 meeting, putting the emphasis onto the Yen as a 'safe haven' trade. We may now see a sell off from the US stocks during the Summer months, then a drive forward for the end of the year. What we can say is that we are not out of the woods yet, no V shaped recovery as so many analysts thought.
Cable today trading within a reasonably tight range ahead of the G8 meeting starting in Italy today. High of 1.6140, now trading at 1.6080/85. Looking for a break below 1.6030 for a move towards 1.5980. If the dollar continues in its direction, then the 38.2% fib level over the last 3 months of 1.5860. Resistance at 1.61 ahead of 1.6125. If the retracement continues expect a move back up towards 1.6140/60. House prices in the UK year on year down below expectations giving further cable sell off. Euro still pounding sterling now trading at 86.65 at time of writing. Equity futures, oil and the comments coming from the G8 the keys for today.
Euro falling against the Yen over the last week, not as severe with the dollar. Trading at 1.3925/30 at time of writing again light trading ahead of the US open and the G8 meeting. Resistance at 1.3940 ahead of 1.3960 and 1.40. Support 1.39 figure ahead of 1.3880, 1.3850 and 1.38 (38.2% fib level for the last 3 months. Watch for the US stocks for direction this afternoon. Preference is that a break below 1.39 will be signal for the drive to the 1.38 level, even 1.3750.
Yen up across the board today, trading at 94.30 at time of writing against the dollar and 131.30 for the Euro. The fall in the stocks giving the lift over the past few days. A move below current levels would mean a move towards 93.80 and 92.65. Resistance at 94.70 ahead of 95.20 (38.2 fib level for the week). Stocks and oil the keys for today, not forgetting the G8 meeting outcome.
US stocks ending higher at the close yesterday after heavy selling during last week. Still not a convincing stride forward to indicate a more positive move northwards for the stocks, more a retracement from dollar strength. Oil also making a move north, still at low levels along with gold. Light trading ahead of the G8 summit meeting where all eyes are on comments reference the long term stability of the dollar and its global reserve currency status. Stocks up in Europe this morning across the board in steady trading. In addition, earn season is just around the corner which without doubt will show little signs in overall improvement of the economy.
Cable trading coming off the highs for this morning just short of 1.63, now trading at 1.6205/10 at time of writing which if continues, expect a move towards 1.6180 then 1.6150 (lows of today's trading). Poor manufacturing economic data from the UK assisting the move down. Resistance at 1.6250 ahead of 1.63. Stocks and oil during the US session really have to show some sizeable gains or we will see further dollar strength by the close.
Stocks up in Europe giving the Euro the lift this morning and in addition, the German factory orders coming out better than forecast. Faltering on the move above 1.40 ahead of the 38.2 fib level for the week at 1.4005/10. If breaks and holds that level, expect a move towards the 1.4050 level ahead of 1.4080. Support at 1.3910 ahead of 1.3880.
Yen trading lower this morning after gaining yesterday against the dollar. Should we break 95.40, expect a move towards 95.55/60 ahead of 95.80. Support at 95.00 ahead of 94.80 and 94.50.
4th July holidays in the states allowing the continuation of the strength in the greenback as stocks fell across the board in Europe. Oil and gold along with stocks assisting in the move with oil now at $63.81 at time of writing. Still looking for the move back up towards the $75/80 per barrel over the short to medium term once the sell off from the stocks has subsided. G8 meeting posing concerns over global economic sentiment and in true style as the stocks are selling off, the dollar will strengthen, how much more it has left to climb is the million dollar question.
Cable trading into the US session still looking to sell off as data from the US from the back end of last week still affecting trading along with the G8 meeting concerns. US equity futures down adding weight to the greenbacks moves southwards. Retraced from the lows of just over 1.61, now trading at 1.6165 at time of writing. Resistance at 1.6180/85 which if breaks and holds, could see a move back towards 1.6215 then 1.6240. Support now at 1.61 ahead of 1.6080, which if breaks and holds along with continual sell off from the stocks along with oil could see a return back to 1.60.
Eurodollar trading at the lows seen on June 25 and if continues, could see a return to 1.3835 ahead of 1.3795/00. Stocks and oil influencing the trade for today, need to break and hold a break below the 1.39 level for the rally to continue. Resistance at 1.3925/30 ahead of 1.3940/50.
Heavy selling through the US session as predicted yesterday with the Dow finishing 214 points down on the day. Oil also down only assisting in the strength of the greenback. The risks retracing overnight during the Asian session for the eurodollar to the 38.2% level for the week (high of 1.42, low of 1.3930) and the cable back to the resistance level of 1.6430/35. European stocks selling off this morning at time of writing along with oil, gold up marginally though.
Cable trading very much in line with yesterdays view of the break below 1.6330 and holding would indicate a move southwards to 1.63 ahead of 1.6280, hovering around the 1.6315/20 level at time of writing. Resistance at 1.6390 ahead of major resistance at 1.6440/50. Euro sterling trading higher this morning at 85.75 at time of writing also assisting the weakening.
For the single currency trading today, up against the pound however, the poor retail figures out today limiting the upside potential. Hitting a high overnight of 1.4030 (38.2% retracement level for the week) now trading at 1.3990 at time of writing having hit a low of 1.3980. Should oil and stocks continue to fall, expect to follow yesterdays predictions of 1.3980, 1.3950 ahead of 1.3920/30. Resistance at 1.4030.
Dollar Yen hitting the predicted level of yesterdays report of 96 and 95.80, now trading at 95.95/00. Resistance at 96.25 which if breaks, expect a move towards 95.50. Support at 95.80 ahead of 95.30.
Stocks in the US made a return back over the 8500 by the close yesterday even though the economic data coming out of the states was not favourable. The ADP report were worse than expected coming in at -473k (up marginally from last month). This was mainly due to the stimulus package set by the government not assisting the employers to increase hiring. The unemployment rate at 9.5% indicating a longer and slower recovery time for the economy. Oil down this morning at time of writing along with the European stocks and if this continues into the trading stateside, expect the dollar to strengthen further.
Cable traders today should be looking for a break below 1.6330 and to hold for further downside pressure for the pound and should look for a move to the 50% Fib retracement level for the month of 1.6280 before a heavy support of 1.6220. The key indicators now are oil and gold, and as they are still falling this morning along with the equity futures looking to open lower, all signs are there for dollar strength. As with so many US openings of late, we could so very easily see a turn by the end of the trading day. Resistance at 1.6430 ahead of 1.6490
Euro trading today coming off the highs of 1.4150/55 breaking through the 38.2 and the 50% retracement levels for the week hovering at the 38.2 % level for the month at time of writing. Support at 1.40, and 1.3980 which if breaks, expect a move towards 1.3920 level. Resistance at 1.4080 ahead of 1.4130.
Dollar Yen at the 38.2% retracement level for the week at time of writing, a break below heading for the 96 level ahead of 95.80.
As predicted in yesterdays snapshot, risks fell from their highs, stocks in the US just not managing to hold ground as US consumer confidence fell below 50 for June. Oil also coming off its highs yesterday assisting the greenbacks strength, albeit are up at time of writing. European stocks also up across the board along with US equity futures which if hold into the US session could see a retracement for the risk trades. Comments from FEDs Janet Yellen yesterday indicating that the interest rate should stay near zero for years to come may indicate a long term view of dollar weakness. The prediction for the Dow in Q£ is still 9000, and even 10000 by the end of the year where it is said that the recession will be nearly over. Oils medium term view is still $75/80 per barrel only assisting in the dollars weakness.
For today however and the cable trade, awaiting the ADP report later today, which if in line with expectation should see a boost to the stocks thus lifting the cable back up to the 1.6550 level this afternoon. Currently trading at 1.6430/35 having reached a high of 1.6480 and a low of 1.6385. Euro/Sterling still heading north having reached a high of 85.75, now trading at 85.60. Should we get another day of selling from the US stockmarket this afternoon and we break and hold 1.6380, expect a move back down towards 1.63 ahead of 1.6280.
Eurodollar trading today being lifted from the cross with the Yen and the pound along with better than expected PMI figures and retail figures from Germany. Should we break and hold 1.4080 expect a move back up towards the highs of yesterday. Should stocks fall again today along with oil, and we break the 1.40 level, then expect a retracement back towards the 1.3950/60 level.
Cable seen a real buying option this morning as housing prices came out better than expected, touching highs of 1.6744 and 85.30 (from lows of 84.40). Running out of steam at time of writing as UK GDP and business investment figures came out far worse than expected. GDP worst decline since 1958. Stocks in Europe lower at time of writing awaiting the US open for any change. Oil also coming off at time of writing giving the signs that we are in for a sell off from the risks during the US session, as long as stocks come off from yesterdays gains.
Cable, expect a move towards the 1.6540 50 level (38.2% ret level for the last weeks trading) albeit may move to the 1.6630 level before the fall. Conversely, should the US stocks and oil regain momentum, expect a move back up towards the 1.6650 and 1.6670 levels before moving over the 1.67 level once again.
Euro trading this morning coming off lows of 1.4070, now trading at 1.4125/30 at time of writing. Should we break the 1.4150 level, and it holds, expect a move back up to the 1.4190/00 level. Should stocks fall during the US session, expect a retracement back down to the 1.4080 ahead of the weeks 38.2 ret level of 1.4030.
Stocks, oil and consumer confidence figures the ones to watch for today's direction.
U S Stocks rallied yesterday up over 2% giving the lift for the risks, having had the dollar strengthen during the European session this morning. Oil stocks said to be assisting in the gains where it is at $70.90 at time of writing. Stocks in Europe this morning up, having now paired its gains allowing the dollar to retrace back from the highs of 1.65 for cable and 1.4062 for eurodollar. Should U.S stocks continue to follow yesterdays lead and gain further, expect the dollar to weaken. Conversely, a fall today would give the greenback a lift, albeit oil seems to be acting as a 'haven', look for a return to $75 - 80 per barrel over the coming sessions.
For cable today, house prices in the UK will influence the trade along with the sell off of eur/gbp. Strengthening this morning as European stocks rally, heading towards the 1.65 level at time of writing which if breaks and holds along with stock and oil gains expect a move to 1.6515/20 and 1.66. Should stocks in the states fall off or the barrier of 1.65 not broken, expect a retracement back to 1.6430 then 1.64 (38.2% ret over last 2 days).
Eurodollar trading this morning higher as with cable due to the European stocks and oil increases. Finding it difficult to break the 1.4060 level, at 1.4046 at time of writing. Demand seen at 1.40, onto 1.3980 (50% ret level for the week). Look for the impact on eur/gbp from house price data in order to give direction, along with US stock price pre market trading. Should stocks and oil continue to trade higher in the afternoon, expect the Euro to push towards 1.4060 and 1.41( 61.8% for the month)
Feds decision yesterday in line with expectations albeit the comments made with reference to the economy improving lifted the greenback strengthening across the board today. Dow finished lower again and lower at time of writing in Europe. Asian stocks having a boost over night, Yen down from same information given from the Fed. Oil this morning trading higher at time of writing and if continues, could see a return to the $70 and $75 per barrel as uncertainty still remains. Data from the States later could see the stocks tumble further should the jobless claims come in worse than expected. Conversely, should we see an improvement, the risk aversion trades could see a lift.
For the Euro, need to break the support level of 1.3920 for a push to 1.39 figure, before yesterdays lows of 1.3890. Resistance at 1.3950 which if breaks and holds will see a return back to 1.3990/00. Await the US stocks for direction along with the jobless claims. Euro pound strengthening this morning heading towards the Tuesdays highs of 85.95/00, along with the cross with the Yen which would indicate that the preference would be to see a return to the 1.4020 level.
For cable, seen a sell off this morning hitting lows of 1.6240/45. Awaiting US opening for direction along with the jobless claims which if better than expected will give a boost back to the pound and 1.63 and 1.63.30/35 (38.2% fib level for the last two days). Support at 1.6250 which if breaks and holds, expect a move back towards 1.62/10. Euro pound struggling to break the current levels of 85.70, good selling opportunity back towards the 85.30 level (if breaks the 85.40 level)
Yen this morning being hit reference the comments made from the Fed regarding the 'improving economy'. Currently trading at 96 35/40. Head and shoulder pattern forming at current levels, which if breaks, will see a move back to the 95.90 level. Resistance at 96.60 which if breaks and holds, could see a move back towards 96.70 ahead of 97.20.
Having had the largest fall from the stock market this year, they are up this morning in Europe 21 points at time of writing. The feds signals out later weakening the dollar against the majors. Consensus is that there will not be talk of any interest rate increases until we see a more positive growth. Oil down at time of writing also ahead of the rate decision out later today at $68.77.
For cable, nice head and shoulder pattern and subsequently a sell off back down to the 1.6510 level where support was given meeting willing buyers back up to 1.6530/35. Should we continue an upside direction and we break the 1.6590/00 level, expect a move back up to the highs of today, and onto 1.6625 before the years high of 1.6670/80. Support back down at 1.6509 for a further move towards 1.6450/60 .
Eurodollar blasting through the 38.2 level at 1.4020/25 to 1.4005/10, retracing back to 1.4045. Should this continue, expect a move back up towards 1.4060/70. Support back down at 1.40 ahead of 1.3980. Aggressive moves on the USD/CHF assisting the move down from SNB intervention.
Keep a close eye on the US stocks and of course the FED meeting later. Worth selling the dollar on any dips below 1.6450 for cable and 1.3980 for eurodollar depending on stock market movements later in the US ahead of FOMC decision.
Heavy selling of stocks yesterday in N.Y. and through into Asia giving the greenback a further lift hitting both the Euro and cable predictions of yesterday. Stocks down marginally in Europe at time of writing, oil up marginally this morning trading at $67.72. We have now had the largest sell off from stocks in 2 months so on that basis, coupled with the fact that metals are broadly up across the board could mean that stocks could be up today, US pre market trading indicating this.
Cable up having now reached the 38.2 fib level for the last 2 days trading which if pushes through expect a move towards 1.6360 and then 1.64. Up some 130 points on the day so far. As long as the US stocks hold, expect the rebound. Support at 1.6280 which if breaks could expect a move back down to the 1.6230 and 1.6210 levels. Eur/gbp hindering the move up having weakened from yesterdays lows of 84.00/05 to 85.70 at time of writing.
Euro this morning strengthening against the buck moving some 180 points being assisted by the World Bank forecasts regarding growth. Should we break and hold the resistance level of 1.4015/20, expect a move back towards the 1.4040/50 before 1.41/10. Support at 1.3960 and 1.3930/40 before 13910/15.
Yen off the lows of 95, heading for the 96 level, and of breaks and holds, expect a move towards 96.30 (50% ret level for the week). Support at 95.60 through to 95.50
Keep an eye on the stock movements today following the housing data from the US.
Stocks in Europe down today instigating selling off of the risk aversion trades. Oil also down over one and a half bucks at time of writing to $67.88 per barrel. Risks hit highs in N.Y. on Friday, cable to 1.6560/65 and Eurodollar breaking the 1.40 barrier to 1.4010/15.
Looking for a continuation into the US trading day of the sterling weakening. Expect the cable trade to 1.6330 level, should we break and hold the 1.6370/75 level. Resistance back at 1.6410 and if breaks and holds, could see a move towards the 1.6470 level.
For the Euro, heavy drop off today, following the cable trade and very much being influenced by the stocks. Hit lows this morning of 1.3825/30, retracing now a little at time of writing. If continues, expect a move back towards the 1.3750 level as seen last Tuesday. Rangebound between 1.3860 and 1.3830. Should we get a move northwards, expect a move towards the 1.3870/80 level before 1.3915/20. If stocks continue to fall, a move from these levels will be expected back down towards the 1.3830 level.
Saw the stocks rise yesterday in the US and through into Asia following better than expected jobless claims from the US. Stocks up again this morning in Europe at time of writing. Majors all in a tight range as not a tremendous amount of data out today. Oil up this morning, heading back up to the $72 per barrel which could give strength to the risk aversion trades later today.
For cable, should we break the resistance of 1.64, expect a move to the next resistance level of 1.6470/75. Support at 1.6350.
Euro trades for today, similar to cable, albeit weakening against sterling this morning. Should we see a move below 1.39, expect a move towards 1.3880 then 1.3850. A move above 1.3940/45, expect a move back up to 1.3970.
Yen needs to break the 97 level for direction northwards to 97.10 then 97.40/45, conversely a move below 96.70, look for 96.50 ahead of 96.20/30.
U.S equities the key for today in order to give overall direction prior to the weekend.
The longest stock market downturn since January this year adding weight to the strengthening of the dollar today, seeing a low for the cable at 1.6180/90 albeit the eurodollar trading in a 80 pip range between 1.3910/90. Euro/gbp really retracing from the lows of yesterday at 84.29 now trading at 85.75/80 at time of writing, hitting a high today of 85.95 (38.2% fib level for the month). Cable weakness not only being squeezed by the stocks but poor UK retail sales figures, although the jobless claims came out better than expected. Jobless claims out later which fall in line with expectations, will weaken the stocks further.
For cable, look to test the 1.6140 level should the consensus prove correct later from the U.S, first breaking today's lows, and should momentum build look for the next support level at 1.6080. Keep an eye on the oil price, having fallen yesterday below the $68 per barrel, back up above $70 now, however, falling off again slightly at time of writing.
Should Euro follow the pound (likely), look for a move towards the 1.3900/05 level before heading towards the 1.3870/75 level (50% ret level from the lows of Tuesday to the highs of today). Keep a close eye on the cross of the Euro/pound as a return to the 87 level favoured.
Heavy selling from the stock markets yesterday in the states giving the strength back to the dollar, giving some back this morning through the Asian trading. Stocks up this morning in Europe, seeing good data from the UK reference retail and consumer price indexes along with the German investor confidence figures jumping to a 3 year high. We will get the measure of the US stocks positions from their data later on today. Oil up, heading towards the $72 per barrel, assisting the weakening of the dollar.
Eurodollar squeezing up to the 38.2% retracement level for the last weeks trading (1.3910/15) albeit struggling to break above it at time of writing. Should we break that figure, expect the retracement to continue to 1.3960/65, should that fail, and we get the 'double top', expect a fall back down to the 1.3850 level ahead of 1.38 figure. Watch the oil as always along with the US equity futures.
Cable, as already mentioned lifting from the data out of the UK today. Nice reverse double top during the Asian session. If it holds above the 1.6470/80 level and the stocks and oil continue to rise, expect a move back up to the 1.66 level. Still strengthening against the Euro, down to 84.38 at time of writing. Stocks really have to fall off in this afternoons US trading to get to the support level of 1.6200/10. Should we break the retracement level of 1.6380/85 level (38.2), may see the correction. Preference though should US data come out better than expected see the move towards the 1.66 level.
Yen today coming off the lows of 96.05/10 reaching 97.05 level at time of writing. Should it break and hold the current level, expect a move back up towards the 97.35 level ahead of 97.65. Many traders feel that the Yen weakness has run its course and if so, expect a move back towards the 96.70 level ahead of the lows of today. Again, see what happens with the US stocks as well as the data later.
Saw good gains for the risk aversion trades yesterday as jobless claims along with the retail figures from the US lifted the equities. Oil also a major influencing factor to the move along with the US treasury sell off. Didn't quite hit the highs this year of 1.6665/70 for the cable albeit, pushed way above the 1.6490/95 as predicted to 1.6628. Oil back below the $72 per barrel along European stocks falling at time of writing, assisting in this mornings retracement back below the 1.6435 level (23.6 fib level) heading for the next support level of 1.6380 and if continues, on to 1.6315/20 level. Needs to break the 1.6426 level (38.2 fib from the highs of 2.1170 and the lows of 1.3490).
Euro trading yesterday also saw the gains as predicted pushing over the 1.4145 level (ACfx). Retraced this morning to 1.4015/20 as poor European industrial production levels were announced. Trichets speech later today may also weigh on the euro. Looking for a move lower to test 1.3990 and then 1.3950/60. Should we break the support levels mentioned, look for a move down towards the 1.3755/60 (major support level)
Yen finally moving back over the 98 level currently trading at 98.25/30. Still looking for the break above the 98.40 level to re test 98.80/90. 101.50/60 the next major support level.
Saw good gains for the risk aversion trades yesterday as jobless claims along with the retail figures from the US lifted the equities. Oil also a major influencing factor to the move along with the US treasury sell off. Didn't quite hit the highs this year of 1.6665/70 for the cable albeit, pushed way above the 1.6490/95 as predicted to 1.6628. Oil back below the $72 per barrel along European stocks falling at time of writing, assisting in this mornings retracement back below the 1.6435 level (23.6 fib level) heading for the next support level of 1.6380 and if continues, on to 1.6315/20 level. Needs to break the 1.6426 level (38.2 fib from the highs of 2.1170 and the lows of 1.3490).
Euro trading yesterday also saw the gains as predicted pushing over the 1.4145 level (ACfx). Retraced this morning to 1.4015/20 as poor European industrial production levels were announced. Trichets speech later today may also weigh on the euro. Looking for a move lower to test 1.3990 and then 1.3950/60. Should we break the support levels mentioned, look for a move down towards the 1.3755/60 (major support level)
Yen finally moving back over the 98 level currently trading at 98.25/30. Still looking for the break above the 98.40 level to re test 98.80/90. 101.50/60 the next major support level.
As predicted in yesterdays report, had the sell off from cable back down to the 38.2% level of 1.6240/50, retraced now to 1.6464 at time of writing. Eurodollar exactly the same hitting the desired level of 1.3950/70 (again as predicted). Yen again back down towards the 97.20 level hitting a low of 97.05/10.
Waiting for the jobless claims later this afternoon, and should we be inline with the consensus, along with the US retail figures, expect a strengthening in the greenback. Oil still driving forward reaching just under the $72 per barrel at time of writing. This will normally weaken the dollar still further however, depending on the stocks direction (higher this morning in Europe) could see a reversal and strength once again for the dollar.
so, for the cable traders, should we break the highs of today (1.6490/95), and holds, expect a move back up towards this years highs of 1.6665/70. Oil and stocks very much influencing this trade. Conversely, we could expect a drive through the support level of 1.6365/70, then onto yesterdays lows of 1.6230/40. Our preference is that the data should lift the stocks further and along with the higher oil price should see the move back up for sterling (especially as the eur/gbp trade is falling off so heavily).
Euro traders, again could see the drive higher on the back of positive US data, however, with the eur/gbp and the cross with the Yen also falling, may see the weakness conversely with the pound dollar trade. Needs to break the support of 1.3975/80 and hold for a further drop towards yesterdays lows of 1.3915/20. Should the emphasis be on the risk trades this afternoon following that data and we break the topside (resistance level) of 1.4050/60, expect a move back up to test 1.4145.
For the Yen, a move back up above the 98 level seen the move for today, back up towards the 98.40/50 level before 98.85/90.
Cable breaking the topside prediction of 1.5980/85, moving on the also break the 38.2% fib level of 1.6130/35 (for the week) as well as stocks and oil ending higher is enough for the dollar to weaken this morning. Hitting a low during the Asian session, back down to 1.5985/90, and a high of 1.6175/80 giving a 200 point move already today. Retracing at time of writing to 1.6108 and the US stocks indicating a lower open could see a move back to 1.6035/40 level (38.2% of the days highs and lows). Saying that, European stocks heading higher which could easily see a move back up to the 1.6235 level.
For the Euro, retraced nicely back to the days 38.2 fib level at time of writing ( 1.3907) having hit a high of 1.3965. If we continue to see the stocks fall of during the US session this afternoon, expect a move back towards the 1.3850 level, even to the lows of yesterday at 1.3805/10.
Yen as predicted a good sell yesterday hitting lows of 97.80 (23.6% fib level) as at this morning, not quite getting to the 97.25/30 levels (38.2%). However, could see that move later today down to those levels if the risks drive higher.
UK in turmoil as Gordon Browns labour party suffering heavily in the European voting last night. Coupled with the expenses scandals with a number of MPs resigning adding uncertainty to the overall government picture. We must also remember that the pound has most certainly been overbought now seeing an 850 point retracement since Wednesday last week.
As predicted on Friday, we saw a move through the 1.5850 level, reaching a low today of 1.58/02 (just above the 38.2% fib ret level of 1.5794 from the lows of 1.4405 to the high of 1.6650/55). I the pressure to the downside continues to build, the stocks keep doing the same and we break and hold below the 1.5790/95 level, expect a move towards 1.57/10, 1.5530/35 and then a key level of 1.5490. On the topside, should we break 1.5870/75 to 1.5915, expect a move to this mornings highs of 1.5980/85, although nothing indicating pound strength now, need to see how the US equity futures open. Oil this morning below $67 per barrel, just adding weight to the greenback.
Euro also fallen this morning some 150 points although strengthening against the pound this morning at time of writing. Hovering around the 50% ret level from the lows of the month (1.3415/20) to the highs of 1.4340/45, at 1.3875. If we see a break below this level and holds, expect a move towards 1.3770, on the topside, should we retrace back above 1.3970/75 and 1.40 (resistance) expect a move towards 1.4040/50.
Good selling opportunity for the Yen today, having been dropping off since the back end of Fridays trading. Expect a move down towards the 97.25/30 level.
As predicted in yesterdays report, dollar strength all the way falling some 3 cents, correlating with the stock market this time. Given the fact that the U.S jobless market is showing signs of recovery which obviously gave the stocks a further lift which intern gave the dollar its direction further to the two rate decisions of yesterday morning. A huge cabinet reshuffle for the U.K also giving uncertainty for the pounds direction at this time and looking at the cross trade with the Yen and the Euro only supporting this. Cable moving towards the 1.60/10 level (38.2% retracement level for the last month) which hold a significant support barrier. Should this give way and hold, expect to see a move towards 1.58/10.
Oil this morning is up at time of writing and heading towards the $70.00 per barrel which if hits will only support the risk aversion trades further. We are expecting the non farm payrolls to come out better than expected and in doing so, will see the U.S stocks increase, which could see a reversal in the dollar strength and see cable head back up towards 1.6260/70.
Euro benefiting from the cable weakness, seeing the eur/gbp reaching a high of 0.8860/70 (not seen since May 21). Still within the range as stated yesterday which if breaks on the topside (eur/usd) of 1.4240, expect to see a return to the highs of 1.4335/40 which if holds firm, could see a return back up to 1.4630/35 (61.8& retracement of the highs of 1.6045 to the lows of 1.2340/45).
Should cable drop below 1.60 (1.5970), we are looking to sell, buying back at 1.5820 (ahead of the 50% fib level for the month). Should we get a reversal, we are buying at 1.62 to take profit at 1.6250 (ahead of the 38.2% for the week). For the Euro, buy at 1.4250, sell at 1.4320. We haven't seen the yen break that 97 level and in doing so are looking to sell, taking profit at 95.60.
Cable hitting a low of 1.6210 overnight having now retraced to 1.6430/35 at time of writing, the Halifax housing data influencing the rally in the pound. Stocks in Asia assisting the strength of the greenback against the pound and the Yen. Euro not suffering from the same fate and indeed continued to strengthen overnight from the lows of yesterday of 1.4109 and reaching 1.4240/45. Rate decisions from the BOE and Eurozone the key for the this mornings trading and looking for a southside move for the cable heading down towards the lows of 1.6210/15. Eurodollar will follow suit once the rate decisions have been announced, not to the degree of cable though, expect 1.4150 as the support which if breaks a move towards the 1.4110 levels. Also keep an eye on Trichets speech soon after the eurozone rate decision. QE will invariably be on the cards and if mentioned, will only assist in the sell off.
Stocks higher this morning in Europe along with oil surging almost a buck higher at time of writing. Gold also up. The increase in the oil price specifically will normally weaken the dollar and until the rate announcements pass, don't bet on it! Jobless claims out this afternoon for the U.S and if better than expected/previous figure will only assist the stock market, thus weakening the dollar. As long as cable breaks and holds the 1.6440/45 level, expect a move back up to 1.6650/60.
Yen in a range of 95.30 and 96.70/75. If breaks the lows expect the 94.50, highs expect a move towards 97.00 for a further mover to 97.20/25 (May 28 high)
Well the stocks surged again yesterday during the U.S session and as predicted, cable having broke the 1.6430 level and the resistance level of 1.65 now heading towards 1.6770/75 (yesterdays key resistance level ACFX). Cable reaching a high of 1.6665 this morning, retracing at time of writing back to just below the 1.66 level. If the trend continues downward, expect to reach 1.6530 ahead of 1.6400. Euro also not wavering and as with the cable reaching new 2009 highs of 1.4330/35, and as with cable retracing at time of writing to 1.4250/60. If trend continues and breaks the 38.2 fib level (yesterdays lows to today's highs) of 1.4245/48, expect a further fall to 1.4220 then 1.4130 being the next real support level (weeks low to high at 38.2%) .
Pending home sales yesterday really helping with the move and whilst we were expecting a drop, more than doubled from last month. Should the PMI figures come out strong, expect a further move north for the pound heading towards the highs since October 2008 of 1.6660/70. A break above will see a move to 1.6720/25 then onto the ACFX consensus figure of 1.6770/75.
Stocks this morning down along with oil at time of writing, however, as with some many days of late, may see a sell off in the morning, only to pull them back in the afternoon session in N.Y.. If that is the case expect the dollar to weaken once again and for the risk aversion trades to reach the highs of today and beyond. Conversely, if we continue to see a sell off in N.Y. then expect dollar retracement back to the levels noted above.
For the Yen traders, the key support level now at 95.30/40 needs to be broken for any move down towards 95.15 then 94.50/60. However, if the 96.70/80 breaks, 97.25 then 97.65.
The fact that the Dow had broken and held the barrier of 8500 surging to 8700 means that the risk aversion trading will still be the players over the short term. The target for the Dow of 9000 by Q3 (as predicted over last few weeks by ACFX) very much in sight now. The consensus still however that before that break of 9000, we will see a fall off from the stocks which will short term strengthen the dollar. US equity futures looking for a lower open at time of writing which for today should see a fall off from the cable and euro trades seeing cable moves towards 1.6225/30 (38.2% for this week) and the euro heading for the 38.2% retracement of 1.4070/80 for a further move towards 1.4020/25 should the previous level break. Oil and gold off from yesterdays highs at time of writing just adding to the strengthening of the dollar. The unemployment levels in the eurozone are the highest for over 9 years again adding weight to the greenback.
Pending homesales from the states the next item to follow, if the fall is as great as to be expected, we will see further selling on the stockmarket which in turn could strengthen the dollar further. All very short term as we have the ADP report at the end of the week, expecting further falls and the rate increasing to a consensus of 9.2
Should we break the 1.6430 level expect to test yesterdays highs of the N.Y. session and if we break and hold above the 1.65 level could very easily see a move towards the 61% retracement level from the 1.8725 peak in September 2008 to the lows of 1.35 in Jan 2009 of 1.6770/75.
Cable seems to be unstoppable at the moment with the euro following closely (EUR/GPB below 0.87 at time of writing). The Yen again has broken that 94.00 level really pushing the greenback down. Stocks are up, oil up and gold also heading north. When will it end? no time soon by the look of things. As per our previous reports, the next target is the 1.6426/30 (38.2% of the highs of 2.1170 Nov 2007 to the lows of 1.3527 in Jan 2009, after this 1.68 level will be targeted. For the euro 1.4380/00 and then 1.4630. All of this stated, do expect an element of sell off over the coming week, we have BOE and EURO rate decisions along with the bankruptcy of GM (sell off from the stocks, to strengthen the dollar). Should we see retracement for the early part of this week, expect a move for cable to 1.6250 for a further move to 1.6160 (being the 38.2% retracement level for the last week. For the euro, a move back to 1.4140 and should momentum build, 1.4070/75. Yen a move back towards 95.50/60.
All indicators for today are still pointing for the risk aversion trades to still surge however, the UK having already had the PMI figures coming out positively. Already talk of the jobless claims again being hit very hard for Thursday, there just doesn't seem to be anything positive coming out of the states in order to give that dollar strength. Long term though, a cheaper dollar will mean more exports, thus boosting the economy which along side the surge in the stock markets will put the States firmly up there again, certainly by the end of the 2009.
There is an underlying tone from the stock market that we will see a drop back below the 8000 on the dow before the move towards 9000 (target for Q3). This would then add to the weight of retracement for this week before the push forward once again.
Dollar up this morning across the board, seems a common situation over the last few days where we see selling of the risk aversion trades in the morning, only to buy them back in the afternoon, no reason for today to be any different. Cable hitting a low today so far of 1.5850/55, now 90 points up at time of writing. Eur/USD dropped below the 1.38 level only to meet support taking it back to 1.3860 at time of writing. The USD/Yen retraced (as stated in yesterdays snapshot) breaking the 97.00 not seen since 12 May. Should Eur/USD break the 1.39 level, expect a move to test yesterdays highs of 1.40. Cable look for a move back over the 1.60 level an again to test the highs of yesterday of 1.6085. The risk aversion trades still heavily influenced by the stocks, if we see the US equity futures rise today, then short the dollar. Also keep a close eye on the oil prices, down today at time of writing and if fall further, only assisting in the weakness of the greenback.
Well cable finally crossed that all important 1.60 level (ACfx prediction for the last 2 weeks) and the pressure is on for the next target of 1.6030/90. UK house prices as well as UK mortgage lending figures certainly assisting in the move. Yesterdays snapshot and predictions stated that we should be watching the stock and oil prices for the direction and in doing so would have allowed those long cable positions to gain some very good profit. Oil up again over $62 a barrel along with US, Asian and currently UK stocks all in the green really pushing the risk aversion trading.. The threat still remains from North Korea attacking the South and with this in mind along with the good consumer confidence figures from the states could see a reversal back to the 1.5950 level then to the 1.5925 level (38.2% retracement level of the lows from yesterday 1.5780 to today's 1.6009). Should momentum gain to the southside and we break the 1.5890 and holds, expect a move to the 1.5850/60 level. On the upside (more indications that this is likely and certainly our consensus) expect the move to the 1.6030/50 level, and for the short term even a move towards the 1.64/65 level. For the euro, upside momentum certainly not as strong as the sterling (eur/gpb at 0.8730/40, near the Feb lows of 0.8650/60) and seems to be meeting resistance at the 1.40 level. Should this break and hold above, expect a move towards the 1.4050 level for a further move towards the 1.4180/90. Should that euro just not have enough steam and we see a move below 1.3950, expect a further correction to 1.3890. For the yen, we are favouring a move back up to the 96.00/20 level as long as the euro and pound remain strong.
Weakness across the board for the euro and the pound, mainly being influenced by the drop in the stock markets (4th day for the S & P) and the information from Germany regarding their banks toxic debt. The fact that the oil prices have dropped also influencing the strength in the greenback. General consensus however is that the dollar still remains week and the cable figure of 1.6030/90 still very much in view. With the concerns in North Korea reference nuclear missile testing only assisting the dollar even further. We would look at buying cable again at 1.5780/85 with stops at 1.5720 (just below the 50% retracement from the low of 21/5 at 1.5514 and a high of 1.5949) looking for a return back to 1.5850 area. Keep an eye on the oil and stocks prices in order to gain the direction for now.
Risk aversion trades taking a battering this morning due to the downgrading of the S & Ps outlook to negative. Pound fell some 200 points in a little over 10 minutes indicating the huge concerns of the UK economy. Euro reluctantly following the cable trade falling from highs of 1.3839 to 1.3739. The stocks this morning obviously trading lower adding the weight to the dollar. Euro trading at the 38% fib retracement level of today's moves at the time of writing, and if the pound continues to fall will find itself heading for the lows of 1.3680/5 (38% of the lows of 18/5 to today's high). Should cable continue to slide along with stock sell off, expect a move down to the 1.5520/4 level and even 1.5435/40, keeping in mind the 200 dma of 1.5539. However, the US economy still unstable with talks of further quantitative easing measures to be implemented, we could so very easily see a return of the risk aversion trades and see the cable head towards the target mentioned yesterday of 1.6030/90. Yen hit new highs against the dollar also today, indicating a good buying opportunity, to recover to 95.20 as long as the euro and cable strengthen against the greenback. Conversely, should the Yen still gain against the dollar, expect a bounce off the 19/3 low of 93.60.
Gold has gained this morning, oil however dropped slightly. All eyes now looking at the US jobless claims out at 2.30pm cet.
Dollar strengthening this morning against the pound, however the euro still holding gains of yesterday. The weakness of the greenback against the Yen drove the stocks lower in Asia last session making export prices increase. Expect a retracment on the Yen to 94.40/50. Stocks in the UK are flat at the time of writing and depending on the pre market trading of the US will give direction for the dollar and risk aversion trades. Our consensus is still for sterling to head towards the 1.6030/90 (called for all week) as long as we can push above the option barrier interest of 1.59. Looking at the analytical data, the pound has had three attempts at that barrier (1.59), which could indicate a move back towards the 1.5715, then 1.5601 (38.2% fib retracement for the week). Looking at the intraday fib chart, we have already hit the 38.2% of 1.5753/60 indicating a reversal. Currently trading at 1.5840. As stated, the 1.59 level is key for further upward movement, a clear break below the 1.5750 would indicate a good selling opportunity. Euro will follow the pounds moves today, as the single currency has a range of about 70 pips.
Keep an eye on the speech later from Feds Bernanke and then Geithner especially if there is any discussion of the US being dropped from its AAA rating status.
Risk aversion trades are back in the frame as equities continue to rise. We are tending to find that the sterling is leading the trading, others to follow. Euro still remaining strong albeit finding it difficult to hold above the 1.37 level (23/4 and 13/5). Consensus is that the pound is still undervalued and is really looking to reach the 1.6030/90 level equating to a 38.2 fib retracement level correction from the lows seen in January 2009 from the highs seen in August 2008. As long as the equities continue to rise (reverse correlation), this could certainly be reached within the short term.
For today, as long as we can break above the 1.5530 level, expect a move towards 1.5570/80, support remains at 1.5480 for the pound. Watch for the BOE minutes reactions as some members are suggesting a larger stimulus will be needed. For the Euro, if it breaks the 1.3670 level (hasn't over the last 5 sessions) expect a move towards the 1.3720 level. USD/YEN a buying opportunity, look for stops above the 96.20 level.
Oil and gold on the rise also today confirming the move away from the safe haven trades.
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Market Direction Ahead of BoE Rate Decision
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 10:51 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks coming off their highs during early trading in Europe ahead of the BoE interest rate decision out later this morning. Oil still continuing the drive northwards now trading at over $72 per barrel as OPEC agrees to maintain production at current levels in order to keep prices at this level, gold coming off its highs at over $1000 per ounce at $990 at time of writing. All this meaning that the markets across the board are trading steady awaiting the comments made from governor Mervyn King reference the 'emergency stimulus package' as reports show that the UK is lagging behind other 'super power' nations. The economic data out this morning for the UK house prices from the Halifax came out better than expected however has had no effect on cable at this time. Stocks in Asia rose overnight, weakening the Yen to 92.26 (38.2% fib ret level for the weeks trading for a third consecutive time) against the dollar.
Cable now trading at 1.65 at time of writing having fallen from the highs of 1.6567. The BoE rate decision out later today the obvious influencing factor for the sell off even though Halifax house price data came out better than expected. Next support level for the cable trade at 1.6480 ahead yesterday's low of 1.6450/55 and the 38.2% fib level of 1.6411. The comments on the 'stimulus package' the key to the ongoing move into the US trading session this afternoon. Resistance at 1.6525 ahead of 1.6540. Favouring further downside pressure for the pound across the board. The pound yen trade the preferable currency pair for this afternoon selling at 152.30, buying back above 151.60/70, stop at 152.60.
Euro trading higher across the board through this mornings trading, coming off its highs of 1.4587 to trade at 1.4545 at time of writing. Should stocks, oil and gold sell off during this afternoons trading session expect a further move south for the Euro back to the 1.45 level. Resistance at 1.4570/80 up to 1.46 (highs of yesterday). Beyond here the next resistance level (2 year 61.8% fib ret level) of 1.4640 the focus.
Yen selling off against the pound, Euro and the dollar, wavering at the 38.2% level for the week at 92.27. The sell off from the stocks in latter European trading and US stock futures looking to open down, expect a strengthen, certainly against the pound this afternoon on the BoE rate decision along with the dollar. Look for a move back towards 151.60/70 against the pound, 92 against the dollar.
Published on Thu, Sep 10 2009, 10:51 GMT
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Stocks Looking to Fall After 5 Day Rally
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 10:14 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks in Asia fell overnight across the board following on to the European session this morning as reports that earnings growth have outpaced equity prices over the 6 month rally. Greenspan ( the former FED reserve chairman who acts as an informal advisor to the UK government) stated that the 'economy will be slow to rebound from the worst contraction in a generation'. The general consensus is that the stocks have been overbought and the risk aversion trades have run out of steam turning our attention back to the dollar along with the continuation of Yen strength. The BoE rate decision tomorrow will also be an influencing factor for the European equities along with the inevitable sell off of cable over the next 24 hours. The US stock equity futures are heading for a lower open at time of writing indicating a sell off today during this afternoons session. Gold has broken below the $1000 per once figure seen over the last two days albeit oil is higher, now above $71 per barrel.
Cable trading for today coming off the highs seen in early European trading at 1.6565, coming of some 100 points to 1.6454 before retracing back to 1.65 figure. The next support level is 1.6480 ahead of the 38.2% fib ret level of 1.6410 for the weeks trading. Below here, the next heavy support is back at 1.6340/50. Resistance at 1.6540/45 (which if reaches and retraces will be the right hand side of a head and shoulders pattern indicating further downside pressure for cable) ahead of the highs for the week at 1.6595. Favouring downside pressure during US trading session this afternoon taking a sell position should we not break 1.6545/50, looking to exit at 1.6480. Trail the stop beyond this point heading towards 1.6420. Euro pound trading higher adding weight to the further southside momentum.
Eurodollar finding it difficult to break the key resistance of 1.4518/20 ( now having had 3 attempts) trading at 1.4495 at time of writing. Should stocks continue to fall during the European session and into the US, expect further downside pressure towards the lows of today at 1.4466 which if breaks and holds, furthering downside momentum towards 1.4450 and 1.4410 (38.2% fib ret level for the weeks trading). The same pattern can be seen against the Yen having now reached 13415/20 on 3 consecutive occasions today. Resistance at 1.4520 which if breaks will see a return back to the highs for the week at 1.4535/40. Further downside pressure favoured.
The Yen weakened against the dollar through the Asian session now trading back at the lows against the dollar of 92.55/60 at time of writing. As the Yen has fallen against the EUR, GBP and the CHF over the last weeks trading expect a retracement during today's trade, specifically should the stocks fall in the US session along with oil and gold, expect a move back towards 92.30 ahead of the weeks lows at 92.05. As the pound weakens over the next 24 hours, expect the Yen to benefit coming back down to 152.20 ahead of the next major support of 151.70 (38.2% fib ret level for the weeks trading).
Published on Wed, Sep 9 2009, 10:14 GMT
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Today's Forex Signals
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 11:06 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks on the rise once again for a fourth day assisted by commodity producers gains on metal price rises and the speculation that, as in yesterday's report, will are at the start of a seeing more mergers on the cards thus showing signs not just of an economic recovery but of stability. Oil and gold heading north, another indicator for the global economy turnaround. Having had the Non Labour Day in the US yesterday, equity futures looking bullish for this afternoons session at time of writing. Subsequently, the greenback is being pounded, giving the risk aversion trades the momentum to continue their drive northwards.
Cable trading for today off their lows of 1.6320 during the Asian trade last night reaching a high of 1.6569 during the European. With stocks, oil and gold all heading north, we could see the pound revisiting the highs of August 19 at 1.66. In addition, the economic data out of the UK today for industrial and manufacturing production higher than expected adding weight to the lift. The BoE rate decision on Thursday will be the only influencing factor for a retracement. Resistance then at 1.66 figure ahead of 1.6630 and 1.6660. Support down at 1.65 ahead of 1.6465. Should the selling of cable ahead of the rate decision start later today, expect it to reach the 3 month 38.2 fibonacci retracement level of 1.63 20 (as yesterday's report predicted).
Euro trading strong during this mornings open reaching a high of 1.4494 from lows of 1.4327 during a flat Asian trading session. Same story as for cable, stocks rallying along with an oil and gold surge hitting the dollar hard. Having now hit a 3 month high against the dollar, expect an element of slow down ahead of the UK rate decision on Thursday. Whilst the retracement will not be as severe as cable, expect a move back towards 1.44. Resistance at 1.45 ahead of the next major level of 1.4640. Expect a sell off towards the end of the day into tomorrow.
Yen strengthening against the dollar as the greenback weakens across the board. Having reached a high low against the dollar of 93.10, now trading at 92.25 (low of 92.05). Next support at 91.95 ahead of the 3 month lows of 91.71. Resistance at 92.30 ahead of 92.50 (38.2% for the weeks trading) and 92.70.
Published on Tue, Sep 8 2009, 11:06 GMT
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Today's Forex Signals and Direction
Mon, Sep 7 2009, 11:46 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks once again ending higher during the US session on Friday seeing a correlation sell off from the risk aversion trades and dollar strength. With Labour Day in the US steadying trading for this afternoon, the data out on Friday particularly the non farm payrolls will continue to give direction for today. The statements made at the G20 meeting over the weekend that 'financial markets are stabilising and the global economy is improving' along with no early exiting plans from QE, gave the risks their move northwards during this mornings trading in Europe following a boost across the board for the European stocks. Kraft foods having offered $16.7 billion for Cadbury added to the speculation that mergers and therefore economies are gaining momentum for the turnaround. Whilst the above seems very bullish for markets and economic growth, the G20 also stated that they 'remained cautious reference the outlook for jobs and growth'. Oil heading north once again in early trading, now at $68.63 per barrel along with gold at just under $1000 per ounce (highest since February 2009) as money moves from the dollar into the 'safe haven'.
Cable currently trading back at the highs of today at 1.6445/50 from 1.6365/70 during the Asian session. With stocks, oil and gold continuing to gain momentum during the European trading session, and economic data thin, steady trading likely. Having now seen a double top at the aforre mentioned level, and with the BoE rate decision out on Thursday along with the comments reference QE, expect a heavy sell off from sterling over the coming sessions. Major support now at the one week 38.2% fib ret level of 1.6320 as long as the 2 year 38.2 ret level of 1.6460 isn't broken convincingly. Resistance at the highs again of 1.6445/50 ahead of 1.6490 and 1.65. 1.6525 the next key level (seen as the head and shoulders of the Aug 21 trade.
Eurodollar trading near the weeks highs of 1.4376 at 1.4350 at time of writing. With a symmetrical triangular pattern forming, the stocks and oil direction likely to be the convincing factors in this afternoons direction as the US market is closed. a clear break above 1.4360 onto the weeks highs will result in a further move northward to 1.44. A clear break below 1.4330/40 expect further downside pressure towards 1.43 ahead of 1.4280 (50% ret level for the week). Favouring a sell off, not before a move towards the highs of the week.
Yen selling off since Thursday of last week albeit coming off the highs for today of 93.30 to 92.95 at time of writing. The third day of stock gains the main reason for the sell off from the 'safe haven' of the yen. Gaining ground over the last few hours of the European session as US closed for trading, the yen still the safe haven trade. Support at 92.70 ahead of 92.55 (38.2% ret level for the weeks trading). Resistance now at the double top high for the day of 93.28/30. The next major resistance at 93.45.
Published on Mon, Sep 7 2009, 11:46 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Outlook
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 12:56 GMT
by Matt James
Sterling and the Euro gained during the US trading session as the ADP report showed a larger than expected decline in numbers to 298000 in August albeit a lower figure than July. As oil heads north and US equity futures look set to open higher expect the risk aversion trades to continue their gains, the initial jobless claims the next important data for direction. The yen now coming off the highs across most currencies as Chinese stocks rose the most in 6 months during Asian trading. European stocks trading higher across the board at time of writing which look to continue the momentum into the US session.
Cable trading for today higher once again as the PMI for services came out far better than expected for the UK, the highest figure for nearly two years. Should oil and stocks continue the drive northwards, expect further gains towards 1.64 and the high of today of 1.6414. Support now at 1.6350 ahead of 1.6330 and 1.63.
Euro trading for today coming off the highs of 1.4350, now trading at 1.4325 at time of writing. Should stocks continue to gain through the US session, expect a move back to the highs of today, ahead of 1.4377 (high of September 1) before 1.44. Support at 1.4319 ahead of 1.4290 (50% retracement level for the week) and 1.4265 (38.2% ret level for the week).
Yen down across 15 of the currencies traded as Chinese stocks rise overnight. The next resistance level 92.77 (38.2% ret level for the week), however, looking at the charts for the dollar yen, a nice 'head and shoulder' pattern can be seen between 9am and 1pm cet, giving the key to further strength for the yen. Next support level 92.26 ahead of 92.15/18.
Published on Fri, Sep 4 2009, 12:56 GMT
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Today's Forex Forecast
Thu, Sep 3 2009, 12:28 GMT
by Matt James
Sterling and the Euro gained during the US trading session as the ADP report showed a larger than expected decline in numbers to 298000 in August albeit a lower figure than July. As oil heads north and US equity futures look set to open higher expect the risk aversion trades to continue their gains, the initial jobless claims the next important data for direction. The yen now coming off the highs across most currencies as Chinese stocks rose the most in 6 months during Asian trading. European stocks trading higher across the board at time of writing which look to continue the momentum into the US session.
Cable trading for today higher once again as the PMI for services came out far better than expected for the UK, the highest figure for nearly two years. Should oil and stocks continue the drive northwards, expect further gains towards 1.64 and the high of today of 1.6414. Support now at 1.6350 ahead of 1.6330 and 1.63.
Euro trading for today coming off the highs of 1.4350, now trading at 1.4325 at time of writing. Should stocks continue to gain through the US session, expect a move back to the highs of today, ahead of 1.4377 (high of September 1) before 1.44. Support at 1.4319 ahead of 1.4290 (50% retracement level for the week) and 1.4265 (38.2% ret level for the week).
Yen down across 15 of the currencies traded as Chinese stocks rise overnight. The next resistance level 92.77 (38.2% ret level for the week), however, looking at the charts for the dollar yen, a nice 'head and shoulder' pattern can be seen between 9am and 1pm cet, giving the key to further strength for the yen. Next support level 92.26 ahead of 92.15/18.
Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 12:28 GMT
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Today's Forex Signals
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 10:21 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks down for a third day in European trading as fears that they have 'got ahead of themselves' throughout the middle part of the year, the financials leading the way. The 'pullback' that most traders have been talking about seems to be underway. Oil with a 6.5% decline over the last trading sessions is higher this morning, up by 0.65% at time of writing. Gold trading steady at 956.70 (marginally higher in European session). The story of this mornings trading following on from the 185 point drop in the US session yesterday along with the 249 point drop in Asia. The ADP figures out this afternoon looking to better last months figures giving traders the direction for Friday's non farm payroll figures. The Eurozones economic data for GDP coming out better than last months giving the Euro the initial lift back towards the highs of today at 1.4245 against the dollar and trading higher against the Yen at 131.90 (from lows of 131.30).
Cable today coming off the lows of 1.6116 once again (seen as a triple base through the last two days of trading) as stocks are hit through the European session. Whilst the yen still strengthens against the dollar (now at 92.60), along with stock sell off, expect further declines for cable during today's trading. Should the heavy support of 1.6116 break and hold expect a move towards the 50% retracement level of 1.6090 ahead of 1.6030 moving towards the July low of 1.5990. Having now set the triple base (major support), resistance seen at 1.6180 ahead of 1.6218 (38.2% fib level for the weeks trading). Should stocks continue to fall along with oil trading below the $70 per barrel level, the likelihood is that even if we do see retracement back to the 38.2% level, further downside pressure likely.
Eurodollar moving northwards through Asian session hitting a low of 1.4190 and a high of 1.4247. Now trading at 1.4215 and looking at the weekly chart, the resistance of 1.4235 (23.6% fib ret level) seems difficult to break above. If 1.4205/10 level broken, expect a move back towards 1.4190 ahead of 1.4180. Below here, 1.4060/70 (38.2% fib level for the last 3 months trading) ahead of the August low of 1.4047. Resistance at 1.4233 ahead of 1.4267 (38.2% fib ret level for the week). As with cable, even if the retracement does hit the 38.2 level, along with stock sell off, further downside pressure likely.
The Yen still strengthening across the board, now at 92.70 at time of writing. The slide of the stocks the influencing factor in the bullish momentum. Should the trend continue, expect further Yen strength back towards the 92.40 level ahead of 92.15 and the 3 month lows of 91.70. Resistance at 92.90 ahead of 93.20/25 (38.2% fib ret level for the week).
Published on Wed, Sep 2 2009, 10:21 GMT
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Today's Forex Signals
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 12:06 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks ended down through the US session yesterday following on from the similar story from the European. Asian equities rebounded following the sell off in the previous session as the DPJ gains power from the Liberals 50 year run. European equities once again trading lower as mortgage data as well as PMI coming out worse than expected from the UK. Cable being hit also this morning on the data as well as stock sell off. The Euro still hurting the cable also as data from the eurozone specifically Germany, came out far better then forecast.
Cable trading for today off the highs reached in early European trading of 1.6375, down some 170 points at time of writing at just over 1.62. Look for a rebound back up to the 38.2% fibonacci level of 1.6265 before further downside pressure resumes as long as the US equities continue their sell off from yesterday. Oil and gold lower, giving the dollar the safe haven status for today's trading. The yen also giving pressure on cable as UK data come out worse than expected. Resistance at 1.6265 ahead of 1.63. Support at 1.62 ahead of the August 31 lows of 1.6285.
Euro holding ground as PMI and unemployment data from Germany came out better than expected along with pound sell off. Stocks down in Europe as well as oil and gold. Expect further downside pressure should US equities continue their sell off as from yesterday. Eurodollar reached a low of 1.4285 this morning now trading around the 50% ret level of 1.4308 for the week. Resistance at 1.4330 (38.2% fib ret level). Support at 1.4285/90 ahead of 1.4265 and 1.4250 (lows of August 31).
The Yen retracing from its highs of yesterday across the board as Asian equities show bullish signs now the DPJ are in power. Strengthening against the Euro and the pound. Should US equities continue its sell off from yesterday, expect yen strength against the dollar as well as continuing against the Euro and pound. Resistance at 93.32 (38.2% fib level) ahead of 93.55 (50% for the weeks trading). Support at 93, ahead 92.50 (August 31 lows).
Published on Tue, Sep 1 2009, 12:06 GMT
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Today's Forex Direction for Last Trading Day
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 10:18 GMT
by Matt James
Having the bank holiday in the UK, expect thin the trading conditions for today. News from Friday still giving the dollar the strength as the consumer confidence figure came in higher than expected albeit not as high as the previous months figure. The stocks from the Friday's US session ended lower also adding weight to the dollar. A similar story for the Asian session, stocks in Japan slumped even though the DPJ wins the election taking out the single party government lasting for nearly 50 years. The yen strengthened across all 16 currency counterparts hitting a low of 92.54 against the dollar and 132.14 for the Euro. A similar story for the pound where a low 150 figure was reached. The fall of the stocks in China giving the Yen the added push northwards. European stocks trading lower in this mornings trading along with oil and gold.
Cable trading for today coming off the highs of 1.6305 overnight to 1.62 at time of writing. The cross with the Yen the main contributing factor to the lower pound during this mornings trading. As the UK is closed, and stocks continue to sell off, expect a further move south towards 1.6150 ( low of 27 August), before the 50% fibonacci retracement level of 1.6090/1.61 for the last three months trading. The Euro sterling trade also giving the downside pressure as it trades at 0.8810/15 at time of writing. Resistance at 1.6245 ahead of 1.63 (38.2% fib level for the week).
Euro trading being hit from the strength of the yen overnight as the DPJ gains power, taking out the Liberal party which has been in power for nearly 50 years. Coming off the highs of 1.4320 , hitting lows of 1.4255. Now trading at 1.4280/90 at time of writing. Strength against the pound giving the lift this morning, now strengthening against the Yen also. Should the Euro break and hold the 1.4315 level, expect a further move towards the 1.4230 (38.2% ret level for the last weeks trading). Support at 1.4280/85 ahead of the 1.4258/60 (low for today).
The Yen strengthening across the board (16 currency pairs), now retracing from its highs against the dollar to 93 (having reached lows of 92.50/55. Should stocks continue to fall into the US session (down in Europe), expect further strength back to the levels seen this morning ahead of the three month lows of 91.70/00. With gold and oil trading lower, the yen is the 'safe haven' for the trading for today.
Published on Mon, Aug 31 2009, 10:18 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Signals
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 11:18 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks gained yesterday during the US session as jobless claims came out better than last months figures, albeit not better than forecast. The signs are all there that the states is now certainly at a turning point and heading out of recession with earnings once again coming out better than expected. The risk aversion trades on the back of the data pushed northwards, the Euro reaching a 3 week high at 1.4407. The pound, still being hampered by the strength of the Euro made some gains in late trading yesterday, held overnight in Asia and again on the move back to the 38.2% ret level at 1.6340 at time of writing. UK GDP out better than expected, which if falls in line with stock and oil strength could see further upward momentum through the European session.
Cable trading higher in Europe, reaching a high just short of the 38.2% fib level for the weeks trading of 1.6340 at 1.6329. Retraced back to 1.63 before pushing higher once again. Resistance at 1.6340 ahead of 1.6360 and 1.6390 (50% ret level for the week). Support at 1.6270.
Euro coming off the highs of yesterday of 1.44 now trading at 1.4365. The sell off against sterling assisting in the move down. Confidence coming in higher than forecast giving a short-lived boost, now coming off once again. Support at 1.4330 (38.2% fib level for the weeks trading) ahead of 1.43. Resistance at 1.4360 ahead of the highs yesterday of 1.44/10.
Yen selling off during this mornings trading against the dollar, Euro and the pound as stocks advance further in European trading. Back below the 94 level at time of writing, the US equity futures will give direction along with the oil prices. Should stocks continue their move northwards, expect the dollar to strengthen against the yen as the risks push higher on the crosses. Resistance for dollar yen, 94 (38.2% fib level) above 94.20 (50% level). Support at 93.60 ahead of 93.40 ahead of 93.20.
Stocks and oil the key drivers for today's direction.
Published on Fri, Aug 28 2009, 11:18 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Signals
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 11:03 GMT
by Matt James
Yen the currency of choice in recent trading as it gains across all majors over the last week, particular interest against the Euro as the single currency has also held its own. The yens gain against the Euro has been the largest since July. China's plan to slow down steel and cement production added to the Yens gains and Asian stocks decline overnight indicating the economic recovery is not as near as originally thought. Stocks during the US session showed marginal gains along with the European trading at time of writing. The pound still taking a battering even though the Nationwide house price data came out far better than expected. The cross with the Euro still adding weight to sterling's decline along with oil prices fall, now trading at $71.22 per barrel.
Cable trading today in a reasonably tight range following the weeks heavy decline reaching a low of 1.6160 during yesterday's trading and a high of 1.6250 overnight. Should we see a convincing break below 1.6170/80, along with oil and stockmarket sell off, expect a move towards yesterdays lows ahead of the 50% fib ret level of 1.6090/00. Resistance (should jobless claims come out better than forecast) at 1.6250 ahead of 1.6270. Above here, a move towards the 38.2% ret level for the week at 1.6335/40.
Euro trading steadily moving northwards once again having reached lows of 1.4210 in yesterday's trading, now at 1.4260 at time of writing. Should jobless claims come out better than forecast this afternoon, expect a move back up above the 50% level for the week at 1.4280/90 ahead of the 38.2% level of 1.4310. The 1.4380 level the next major resistance level. Support at 1.4220 ahead of 1.42. Next level of support back down at 1.41.
The Yen, the strongest currency across the board, coming off its high at 93.40 against the dollar, now trading at 93.60. Support for the dollar yen at the lows of today ahead of 93.15/20. Resistance at 93.80 ahead of 94 (38.2% fib level for the weeks trading). Above here and depending on the initial jobless claims out later today, could see a move back towards the 50% level of 94.30.
Published on Thu, Aug 27 2009, 11:03 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Direction
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 09:28 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks up through US session in yesterdays trading as consumer confidence gains once again, the trend following into Asia. Equities still edging higher in European trading at time of writing. With oil and gold edging higher you would expect all the risks to be heading north.... the Euro seems to be the stable currency, certainly over the last trading sessions, holding ground against the dollar and rangebound against the yen. Good German IFO figures (business confidence) out this morning giving the single currency the lift along with the weakening of the pound now trading at 0.8780. US homesales and mortgage applications out this afternoon the key figures to watch for market direction out later this afternoon.
Cable still falling having come off the highs of 1.6355 reaching lows of 1.6291, having broken through the 3 month 38.2% fibonacci level of 1.6320. Retracing from the lows of today's trading at time of writing, further downside pressure likely as European stocks finding it difficult to maintain momentum. Should we see a convincing break below 1.6285/90, expect a move towards the 17 August low of 1.6265/70 before a drive towards the 1.61 level. Resistance at 1.6350 (highs of today) ahead of next fib level of 1.6375 (23.6%). Preference for further downside pressure as long as the stocks continue to falter.
Euro trading at 1.4310 at time of writing with no sign of letting up. Looking at the 3 month chart there is a resistance barrier between 1.4375 and 1.4351. Having now had four attempts at breaking this level, a sell off will be likely before a drive north to break the barrier as long as stocks and oil continue to trade with bullish tones. Resistance at 1.4350 ahead of the range mentioned previously. Support at 1.43 ahead of the 38.2% fib level of 1.4250. Next key support 1.4210.
The Yen still holding ground across the board continuing to put pressure on the dollar, trading below the 38.2% fib level of 94.25 for the week, heading towards the next key support level of 93.80/90. Should this level break and hold, expect a further drive towards 93.40. Resistance at 94.45/50 ahead of 94.70. Preference for today is further downside pressure.
Published on Wed, Aug 26 2009, 09:28 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Direction
Mon, Aug 24 2009, 12:00 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks seen rallying once again through the US session Friday as economic data for both Europe and the US came out better than expected. Comments made from the FED chairman stating that the economy is most certainly now coming out of the recession then gave the dollar the well needed lift against the pound and the Euro and the yen. The bullish tones continued overnight through Asia and into European trading for the stocks which if continue, could see the US session continue its gains. The industrial new orders for the EMU out this morning giving the Euro the lift against the dollar, cable following at time of writing. Attention now drawn to the UK house prices out tomorrow as the consensus is for a worse than expected level for the month of August which should then be giving strength back to the dollar. Oil blasting higher once again trading over $74 per barrel, giving the risk aversion trades a further lift.
Cable trading today trading from highs of 1.6545 to lows of 1.6438 before rebounding once again to 1.65. With stocks remaining steady and the comments from Trichet and Bernanke at the Federal Reserves Annual meeting over the weekend giving positive statements, expect further gains for the risks. However, Trichet is still retaining an element of pessimism stating that 'we still have a bumpy road ahead'. Resistance at 1.6542 ahead of 1.66. Support at 1.6491 ahead of 1.6450.
Euro strengthening against the dollar and the pound in this mornings trading reaching 0.8698 from a low of 0.8658 and 1.4360 high, 1.4280 low for eurodollar. Resistance at 1.4360/65 ahead of Friday's highs of 1.4377/80. Support at 1.43 ahead of 1.4250. With oil and stocks heading north, expect further gains in early US trading.
Yen suffering against the dollar reaching a high of 95.07 from a low of 94.24 (38.2% fib level for the week). Currently trading at 94.67 expect further sell off short term ahead of the US trading session. Oil, gold and the stocks the key for the direction of today. Should stocks continue their gain expect further dollar strength. Conversely, should the stocks sell off, expect a move back towards the 38.2% fib level and today's lows.
Published on Mon, Aug 24 2009, 12:00 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Signals
Fri, Aug 21 2009, 09:27 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks ending higher in the US even though initial jobless claims came out worse than expected at 576k from 558k last month (forecast 548k). The dollar hit on the information across the board, the Euro gaining the most as recession fears are now subsiding and economic data generally coming out better than expected with France and Germany coming out with better than expected PMI figures. The Yen, the other currency continuing its gains against the dollar reached highs of 93.47 in Asian trading, retraced, now heading back down once again albeit remaining steady against the Euro. The pound seems to be the currency that will be hit the most over the coming sessions mainly due to the huge budget deficit figures out yesterday. Oil still climbing through yesterdays trading and as with the yen, acting as a 'safer' haven. Oil trading at $72.80 at time of writing trading marginally off its highs.
Cable heading lower at time of writing once again coming off the lows of 1.6418 overnight, reaching 1.6510 now trading at 1.6474. Good European data pushing cable lower against the Euro now trading at 0.8670 at time of writing. 1.65 figure now seen as a barrier (50% retracement level for the weeks trading). Now heading now for the 1.6450 level again seen as a support barrier which if breaks, could see a move back down toward the 1.6385 level ahead of the 3 month 38.2% level of 1.6320.
Euro strengthening against the pound and the dollar, the yen still stronger. Trading currently at 1.4290 having squeezed above 1.43 on the release of better than expected PMI data. Should stocks and oil continue to move northwards, we could see a return 1.4325 ahead of 1.44. Struggling currently to break and hold the 1.43 barrier, a retracement back towards 1.4285 ahead of 1.4245.
The Yen trading higher across the board as Chinese stocks headed south on the basis that they wish to curb lending from banks (seen as being the reason for the 60% rally in the stockmarket). Along with dollar, now trading at 93.70, the pound is trading lower at 1.5460 at time of writing. Resistance at 94.25 (38.2% ret level for the week) ahead of 94.50. Support now at 93.70 ahead of 93.50.
Published on Fri, Aug 21 2009, 09:27 GMT
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Today's Forex Direction and Strategy
Thu, Aug 20 2009, 10:21 GMT
by Matt James
Better than expected retail figures for July have given sterling the early boost spiking to 1.6610 in this mornings trading. European stocks also higher at time of writing having followed Asian equities and the boost seen in the US yesterday. The EIA crude figures coming out far less than expected thus giving the huge move northwards for oil, heading back over the $72 per barrel. The risks gained ground on the information, the Yen however holding onto gains reaching 93.66 against the dollar.
Cable trading today coming off the highs of 1.6610 as the UK announces a record budget deficit of £8 billion. Now trading at 1.6520 at time of writing, some 100 points down on the day so far, expect further sell off towards the 50% ret level of 1.6460/70 to come into play. Oil and gold also down currently also assisting in the downside pressure. However, as stocks continue to rise and US equity futures continue and open higher, we could easily reverse the retracement to head back up over 1.66. This is now the third attempt during August at pushing to hold gains over the 1.66 level. Resistance at 1.6560 ahead of the barrier of 1.66. Support at 1.65/05 ahead of 1.6460. Euro pound trading higher this morning, now trading over 0.86.
Eurodollar pushing higher at 1.4220 at time of writing, the cross with sterling and yen giving the boost this morning. As stocks continue to rise, a further move northwards back to the highs of today of 1.4267 possible. A symmetrical triangle forming indicating consolidation. The jobless claims out later today along with the continued stock market gains would indicate the move northwards. Support at 1.4190 ahead of 1.4155 (38.2% ret level for the weeks trading).
The yen loosing ground this morning across the board trading at 94.20 against the dollar and 134.15/20 against the Euro. Starting to head lower at time of writing which if continues could see a return back below the 94 level and the 93.40 level comes into view. The jobless claims the key economic data this afternoon. The concerns about the continual pumping of cash into the American economy weighing heavy on the dollar which will only boost the yen as a 'safe haven' trade. Preference today is to sell dollar yen looking for a move back towards 93.60.
Published on Thu, Aug 20 2009, 10:21 GMT
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Today's Forex Strategy
Wed, Aug 19 2009, 09:51 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks ending higher in the US yesterday along with European trading as UK data regarding CPI rose far better than expected. US data regarding housing and PPI albeit not affecting the steady growth in equities. Cable reaching a high of 1.6595 in Asian trading, down some 200 points in European trading to 1.6395 at time of writing. Metal prices seemingly the drive towards dollar strength initially, however poor US data yesterday will naturally be having affect on the retracement. Germanys PPI also coming in worse than expected giving the bearish tones for the Euro.
Cable trading today currently below the 1.64 level which if holds along with continued equity sell off will see a return back to the 3 month 38.2% fib level of 1.6320. Beyond here, 1.63. Resistance at 1.64 ahead of the 1.6450 (38.2% ret level for the week), US equity futures having to continue to show gains before the opening to see a return in the risk aversion trading. Preference is for further pressure on the pound to head back towards 1.6320.
Eurodollar currently trading around 1.41 at time of writing having reached highs of 1.4170/75 during Asian trading overnight. Poor German PPI the cause of the slide along with the sell off from the stocks. Support now at 1.4070 (38.2% fib level for the past 3 months trading) ahead of 1.4050 and 1.4010. Below here the 1.3950 level comes into view being the 50% fib ret level for the last 3 months. Resistance at 1.4110 ahead of 1.4150 (38.2% level for the week). Preference is for further downside pressure as long as the highs of today are not reached.
Dollar Yen hovering around the 38.2% fib level at 94.45 looking for a move southwards to 94.10 ahead of 93.40 (23.6% for the last 3 months trading). Stocks the key to the dollar sell off against the Yen. Resistance at 94.50 ahead of 94.80 (23.6% fib level for the weeks trading). Preference is for further downside pressure. Sell at 94.50/60 for a limit at 94.10.
Published on Wed, Aug 19 2009, 09:51 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Direction
Tue, Aug 18 2009, 08:55 GMT
by Matt James
European stocks rising this morning as the ZEW survey along with the US housing forecasts are likely to come out better than the previous month showing that confidence in the eurozones economic sentiment is moving to optimistic rather than pessimistic along with housing starts getting a boost in the states. Having had such a huge sell off during the US session and a minor increase in the Asian, look for a short term (very) return to risk appetite, however, the consensus is still for a drive lower and the return to dollar and Yen strength. Stocks and oil remain the key indicators for today's trading, oil back above $67 per barrel, gold also trading higher at time of writing.
Cable trading for today at 1.6390 at time of writing coming off lows of 1.6325. Look for the cable trade to follow eurodollar during the European session as the ZEW survey is the economic data to watch this morning. As expectation is for a rise in confidence, expect further gains towards the 1.6450 level (38.2% fib level for the weeks trading). Should the stocks, oil and gold during the US session continue to rise again on expectation that the housing starts are due to come out better than forecast, a move towards the 1.65 level not out view. However, with UK CPI along with retail figures out later this morning looking to come out below those June, a return back to 1.6385 ahead of 1.6330 not out of the question. Preference is for a gain during this mornings session into the US.
Eurodollar trading this morning looking to add to gains from the lows of 1.4065 now trading at 1.4110 at time of writing. The ZEW survey the key to the euros trading for today, look for a move back to the 38.2% fib level of 1.4150 which if holds expect a move towards 1.4180/90. Stocks the main indicator for today's trading, further gains bullish for the eurodollar, a sell off during the US session, dollar strength. As the US housing starts are due to come out better than expected, a move northwards the likely path. A good selling opportunity exists should the eurodollar reaches the 1.4180 level.
Yen this morning down across the board, the Euro gaining some 200 points for the day so far. Expect a return to Yen strength as the risk aversion trades likely to run out of steam. The stocks once again the key to today's trading. Resistance at 95.55/60 ahead of 95.95/00. A good selling opportunity should the dollar yen hits the latter for a move back down towards 95.15 ahead of 95 and 94.70.
Published on Tue, Aug 18 2009, 08:55 GMT
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Today's Forex Forecast
Mon, Aug 17 2009, 09:08 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks plunged in US trading on Friday as the Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence index fell sharply for the month of August to 63.2 from last months 66 along with poor CPI data. The selling continued throughout the Asian session overnight where the Nikkei closed over 3% down at 10,268.61 as earnings for the likes of Sony and BHP Billiton (mining co.) along Japanese GDP figures coming out worse than expected. Selling pressure on equity markets have had a huge affect on risk appetite where selling has continued throughout this morning also, the pound now below the 1.6350 level, hitting lows of 1.6325 and the Euro at 1.4110. UK data out this morning from Rightmove showed the house price index decline for the month of August to -2.2% from 0.6 in July.
Oil and gold down at time of writing as stocks tumble and the 'safe haven' of the dollar gains. Oil back well below the$70 per barrel level at $66.35. The consensus is for a move higher for oil as we move into the hurricane season which could see further selling pressure on the dollar over the coming weeks. Gold at 940.70 at time of writing.
Cable trading today currently at 1.6350 having hit lows just shy of the 3 month 38.2 fibonacci level of 1.6319 at 1.6324. The house price index giving the push down during this mornings session. Should the stocks continue its sell off during the European session and into the US expect further downside pressure back below the lows of today. The 1.6320 level being a major support barrier which if breaks and holds could see a move back towards 1.6275/80 ahead of 1.61 (50% fib ret level for the last 3 months). Resistance at 1.64 ahead of 1.6430 (23.6% fib level for the past weeks trading). Should retracement continue above 1.6460, expect a move towards the 1.6485 (38.2% level for the week).
Eurodollar off from the highs during the Asian session at 1.4205 to trade currently at 1.4120. The cross against the Yen being the main driving force as Asian stocks tumbled overnight. The economic data out later this morning from the EMU the next key for direction. Should stocks continue to fall as with the cable trade, expect further downside pressure below the lows of today to the weeks lows of 1.4080/90. The next support coming in at the 38.2% level comes into view at 1.40.65/70 which if continues, could see the return below 1.40. Resistance at 1.4160 ahead of 1.4180 and 1.42.
The Yen strengthening across the board as stock fell overnight in Asia. Against the dollar currently trading at 94.50 having hit lows of 94.35 (38.2% fib level for the last 3 months trading). Should we see continued sell off from the stocks and a break below this support level, expect further downside pressure on the dollar towards 94 ahead of 93.40. Resistance at 94.80 ahead of 95.15. A convincing break above this level expect a return to the 38.2% level for the weeks trading at 95.60.
Published on Mon, Aug 17 2009, 09:08 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Signals
Fri, Aug 14 2009, 09:31 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks up across the board once again over the last three sessions as earnings come out better than expected. Initial Jobless claims yesterday coming slightly worse than had been forecast although the continuing claims better than expected. Oil and gold up also this morning and not showing any signs of selling off during the European session. The risk aversion trades coming off their highs with eurodollar still below the 1.42 level and cable having driven back below the 1.65 figure to 1.6485. Not much economic data out today so trading expected to be light.
Cable trading for today hovering around the 1.6550 at time of writing having hit the low of 1.6485. Should the trend continue northwards and break above the 1.6580 expect the move to 1.6640/45 (38.2% level for the week). Stocks through the US session have to continue their gains for this move to happen. Support back down at 1.6535 ahead of 1.65 and 1.6485. Preference today would be to buy above 1.6585, limiting just before the key resistance level at 1.6630. Should stocks during the US session sell off, a sell position at 1.6510 with a limit at 1.6485 (low for the day).
Eurodollar this morning still below 1.43 which is seen as a key resistance level. Should it break and hold, expect a move towards yesterdays highs of 1.4330. As with cable, stock futures from the US the key to market direction as economic data out today remains light. Support at 1.4255/60 ahead of 1.4225 (38.2% retracement level for the week).
Dollar yen continued its sell off through this mornings session hitting lows of 94.85. Trading at 95.15 at time of writing, further downside pressure expected. 94.46 the next key support level (38.2% for the last three months trading). Resistance now at 95.30 ahead of 95.95/00.
Published on Fri, Aug 14 2009, 09:31 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Signals
Thu, Aug 13 2009, 09:38 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks back on the move northwards once again, the US session up 1.3%, following overnight through Asia and now into the European session. The FEDs decision yesterday remained unchanged however the statements reference the recovery of the economic downturn is underway were very well received pushing the risks higher in tandem. The German and French economies expand unexpectedly showing that Europe is right behind the US as far as recovery is concerned. The overall consensus now is that we are coming out of the depths of global recession which was once again highlighted again as the PGC Index (measure of confidence) pushed over the 50% level to 58.12% for the month of August (from 39.13 in July) indicating the optimists outweigh the pessimists for the first time this year.
Cable continuing its upward trend currently at 1.6560 having hit a low of 1.6474 during the Asian session. The highs just short of 1.66 still in view as stocks, oil, gold and economic data all point to a bullish start to the European session. Should the tones continue through this session and onto the US, expect a move back towards 1.66 ahead of the 38.2% fibonacci level for the weeks trading at 1.6645. Beyond here, 1.67 ahead of 1.6720 (50% level). Support at 1.6535 ahead of 1.65 and today's lows of 1.6474.
Eurodollar climbing on the economic data from Germany and France came out better than expected along with better than expected GDP figures for the eurozone, now trading at 1.4260 having reached highs of 1.4272. Should stocks, oil and gold continue to rise, expect a move towards 1.43. Beyond here, 1.4310/15 ahead of 1.4370/80. The 1.43 level will be the barrier to break convincingly for any further uptrend, even if the stocks continue to head north. Support at 1.4268/70 ahead of stronger support at 1.4225 (38.2% fib ret level for the week). Beyond here, 1.4180 comes into view.
Dollar yen continuing its move higher from the lows today at 95.80 currently trading at 96.30, highs for the day of 96.50. Should the risks continue their move northwards expect further advance to the 38.2% fib level of 96.60 ahead of 97. Support at 96.20 ahead of the lows of 95.80.
Published on Thu, Aug 13 2009, 09:38 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Signals
Wed, Aug 12 2009, 09:27 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks down across the board through the US session, Asian and now into the European as earnings reports come out worse than expected. Dollar and the Yen both benefiting from the fall assisted by a sell off from oil and gold. Oil now below the $70 per barrel once again, gold just over $944. Sterling being hit once again as jobless claims and the unemployment rate out worse than expected with the rate now at 7.8%. The BOE's meeting later today regarding inflation the key to today's trading, ahead of the rate decision from the US later today.
Cable trading at 1.6430 at time of writing, falling from the highs of 1.6525 through the Asian session. With poor employment data out this morning and the BOE report regarding inflation out today, the pound is finding it difficult to retrace and is likely to continue its sell off as long as the other key indicators of stocks, oil and gold still head south. Resistance at 1.65 ahead of the highs overnight of 1.6525. Support back down towards 1.64 ahead of the 1.6390 (lows for the day) and 1.6325. The next heavy band of key support 1.6165/70 (38.2% fib ret level for the last 3 months trading).
Eurodollar currently trading near the lows for the weeks trading at 1.4111 at time of writing having made two attempt at breaking the 1.41 level. Should the 1.41 level break and hold, expect a move towards 1.4090 ahead of 1.4060 (38.2% ret level for the last 3 months trading) being the next key support level. The strength of the Dollar and the Yen assisting in the downside pressure. Resistance at 1.4180/90 which if breaks, expect a move towards 1.4220 and 1.4240 (38.2% level for the week). Should the report out today from the BOE be negative, look for the euro/pound to gain which in turn could give the move northwards for eurodollar. Stocks along with oil and gold also the key indicators for today.
Yen strengthening across the board, against the dollar hitting the 95.10 as predicted in yesterdays report. Currently trading at 95.70, support remains at 95.50 ahead of the lows at 95.10. Resistance at 95.80 ahead of 96 and 96.20.
Published on Wed, Aug 12 2009, 09:27 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Signals
Tue, Aug 11 2009, 09:02 GMT
by Matt James
The RICS house price balance for the month of July came out better than expected up 1.7% giving sterling a lift through the Asian session reaching a high of 1.6525. The Euro pound trade reaching 85.64 before retracing once again northwards. Germany's CPI figures also coming out better than expected giving the Euro a lift against the pound as already stated along with the dollar. Expect steady trading today ahead of the FEDs interest decision out tomorrow along with the BOE inflationary report. European stocks trading higher at time of writing, again from better than expected housing data, following on from the Asian session also ending in the green.
Cable trading today still coming of against the dollar even though we have had good data out from the U.K. giving the pound the lift. Retracing now at time of writing currently trading at 1.6445, having been the second attempt to drive lower. The BOE announcement tomorrow weighing on the pounds drive northwards, however with both gold and oil moving into the green, don't expect the dollar just to continue its bullish tones. Should the dollar continue its drive below and holding 1.6435, expect a move towards 1.64 ahead of 1.6355. Should the US session for stocks continue its decline from yesterdays trading, look for the move towards the three month 38.2% fib level of 1.6170 to come into play. Resistance at 1.6525 ahead of 1.6578/80. Preference is for further downside pressure on the pound during today's trading.
Euro trading at 1.4170 coming from the lows yesterday at 1.4105 and the lows today of 1.4122/25. Good CPI figures from Germany along with the pounds decline against the dollar giving the move northwards. Should we see a move above the weeks 23.6% fib level of 1.4185 and breaks 1.42.20, expect a move towards 1.4235 (38.2% level). Support at 1.4128 which if breaks, expect a move back to the lows of yesterday ahead of 1.4080 and 1.4020.
The Dollar/Yen trading at 96.80 having come off its lows from 96.58. Having hit resistance just below the 23.6% fib level for the week at 97 and struggling to break, expect a further drop towards 96.50 ahead of 96.10 (50% fib level for the week). Resistance at 97 ahead of 97.25 and 97.50.
Published on Tue, Aug 11 2009, 09:02 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Signals
Mon, Aug 10 2009, 08:56 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks ending higher during the US session on Friday as Julys jobless claims came out 100k better than expected. The dollar also gained across the board, against the Yen seen the largest move for a month ending the day at 97.80 from lows of 94.75. The Euro seen spiking to 1.4410/15 before correlating with the stock market and heading to lows of 1.4150, Cable the same story 1.6835 to 1.6650. Oil and gold both down this morning along with European stocks at time of writing. The dollar seems to have turned a corner reference market data. Where we have seen for some months, good US data equalling stocks rise and subsequent dollar fall, the correlation with the stocks along with its own haven status seems to be returning.
Cable trading for today still heading lower as the European stocks continue to fall this morning. As data out today is thin, expect further downside pressure on the cable as the jobless claims information continues to assist the greenback, along with the BOE inflation reports out on Wednesday faltering the pounds retracement. Stock trading during the US session seen a key indicator for the dollar direction this afternoon in thin summer season trading conditions. Having broken through the 38.2% ret level of 1.6660 for the months trading, expect further downside movements towards the 50% level of 1.6540. Resistance at 1.6655 ahead of 1.6670 and 1.6710 ( the highs for the day).
Euro trading for today seen retracing during the Asian session onto the European. Reaching a high today of 1.4220, seen dropping once again currently trading at 1.4190 at time of writing. Should we see declining stocks through the US session, expect further dollar strength pushing to the lows on Friday at 1.4150 to extend the move to 1.41. Resistance at 1.4215 ahead of 1.4240 ( 38.2% ret level for the month ) ahead of 1.4265 and 1.43.
The dollar yen trading for the day seen coming off the highs of 97.80 (Asia) to 97.05, having seen a double top. Currently trading at 97.38, a move below 97 would indicate a further retracement back to 96.50 (38.2% level for the week) ahead of 96.10. Resistance at the 97.75/80 level and if breaks and holds, a move to 98.50/60 the next heavy level.
Published on Mon, Aug 10 2009, 08:56 GMT
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Trading Signals Ahead of Payrolls
Fri, Aug 7 2009, 09:29 GMT
by Matt James
European stocks down ahead of the non farm payrolls out later today also being pushed lower by the report from RBS which posted a 1 billion dollar loss. The rate decision in the UK remained the same however the QE measures taken by King where far more aggressive than expected. Sterling crumbled across the board from 1.6996 to 1.6822 for cable on the news and 84.55 to 85.50 for Euro pound. Dollar gaining during this mornings trading once again however static for the last hour. At 1.6735/40 currently awaiting US data. Consensus is that jobless claims dropped at a slower pace, albeit heading in the right direction, however, the unemployment rate is due to increase, and not even to stabilise until mid 2010.
Cable trading for today awaiting the US data. Should jobless claims come out better than expected, stocks should gain a lift through the US session and the risks are back into play and could see a return to the 38.2% levels for the week at 1.6828/30. The news reference RBS however may stunt the stock gains giving the emphasis and control back to the dollar. Support now at 1.6690. Beyond this point, and stocks continue to fall, expect a move towards 1.6570, even to 1.6470. Resistance at 1.6760 ahead of the previously mentioned fib level of 1.6828/30.
Euro trading for today, currently at 1.4367 having come from the lows of yesterday at 1.4335. Again as with cable, the jobless claims the key for today. As they are due to come out better than expected, a move northwards back to 1.4380 ahead of 1.44. Support at 1.4330 ahead of 1.43 and 1.4270 (38.2% fib level for the week).
Yen today trading higher against the dollar at 95.15 at time of writing. Support at 94.90 ahead of 94.70. Should we break that level, expect a move back towards the lows for the week at 94.35. Resistance at 95.30 ahead of 95.50 to 95.80.
Published on Fri, Aug 7 2009, 09:29 GMT
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Today's Forex Signals ahead of Rate Decisions
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 10:18 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks ending lower yesterday during the US session as worse than expected unemployment figures were released. With good economic data coming from the UK along with overall sentiment positive, the sterling lifted to new highs of 1.7045 and 84.62 against the Euro. Stocks through Asia increased which has continued into the European session albeit the rate decisions slowing the trading at time of writing.
For the cable, should the BOE increase its purchases and continue with its QE program, expect the pound to weaken sharply and head back to the 1.69 level, even to the 1.6850 should there be no comments on 'seeing an end' to the recession and subsequently the QE programme. Currently trading at 1.6995, support as mentioned, resistance at 1.7015/18 ahead of the highs of 1.7044. Should the BOE indicate an end to QE and decide that no further purchases necessary, the 1.7330 level remains in tact. Any move below the 1.69 level, more at 1.6880 should be seen as a buying opportunity for today.
Euro trading today, still within that range spoken about yesterday currently trading at 1.4390. The eurodollar reached a high of 1.4447 however faltered and continued its downturn overnight in Asia. Resistance at 1.44 ahead of 1.4421. Support now at 1.4355 ahead of 1.4280 (38.2% fib ret level). ECB comments that the economy is finding its feet sooner than expected, however it is on a gradual basis and shouldn't be seen as a green light to the end of the recession or indeed any further measures to stabilise the economy.
Published on Thu, Aug 6 2009, 10:18 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Strategy
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 09:02 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks in the US ending higher yesterday, Asian stock stumbling across the board overnight as profit taking ensues. Poor earnings from UK banks pushed the pound lower in early trading, albeit coupled with better than expected Nationwide consumer confidence out late last night along with Halifax house prices this morning rising once again have lifted the cable back towards the Asian highs of 1.6955/60. European stocks down at time of writing. The risk aversion trades are likely to be coming under pressure as we await interest rate decisions, the BOEs QE measures and the all important job reports out tomorrow.
Trading for the cable today continuing its recovery back towards the 1.70 level a key barrier. Should we see a break above, expect a move towards the 1.7010. Should stocks and oil rally through the European session and through into the US session, expect a drive towards the 1.7330 level. However, with the data out tomorrow along with stock selling, oil and gold down, that barrier unlikely to be broken, certainly over the next 24 hours. Support at 1.6980 ahead of 1.6965 and 1.6950. Should we see continued stock selling, expect a move back to the lows of 1.69. The pound strengthening against the Euro as overall industrial data for the UK coming in better than expected. Now trading at 84.75. Preference, selling the pound below 1.6950 to exit at the 1.69 level.
Euro trading rangebound since the back end of Monday, 1.4449/1.4370. As with the cable trade, data out tomorrow holding off any aggressive trading and only if stocks rise significantly, shall we see any major moves in the single currency. Resistance at 1.44 ahead of the Asian high of 1.4423. Above here to the highs of this year at 1.4445. Support at 1.4370 ahead of 1.4350 and 1.4330. Still expect a rangebound trading session until the ADP reports out later today. Preference to sell below 1.4370 to exit towards the 1.4330 level.
Dollar yen back at the 38.2% ret level for the week at 95.18/20. As risks start to head south once again, expect further selling pressure moving towards 94.90 ahead of 94.65 and 94.40. Resistance barrier at 95.42 (double top in trading yesterday), if breaks a move towards 95.80 on the cards. Preference sell from 95.30 to buy back at 94.90.
Published on Wed, Aug 5 2009, 09:02 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Signals
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 08:07 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks in Europe and the US gained once again yesterday, the S & P pushing past the 1000 barrier, a figure that hasn't been seen since November of last year. The Dow rallied to new highs also, up by 1.25% at 9286 as earnings reports from the likes of HSBC and Barclay came in better than expected along with UK manufacturing expanding to figures not seen since March 2008 at 50.8 against last months figure of 47.4 indicating bullish tones for the pound. Cable overnight through Asian trading squeezing over the 1.70 level, eurodollar reaching highs of 1.4445/50. European stocks this morning predominantly trading lower at time of writing, giving back some of the gains from yesterday. ACfx's daily report yesterday talked of the 2 year 50% fibonacci retracement level of 1.7330 being the next major resistance to break, a level which seems very much in view should we continue to see the gains throughout this week onto Friday, where our attention will turn towards the US non farm payrolls. Expect an element of pullback from the risks before the next drive forward, oil and gold this morning trading lower only assisting the moves.
Cable trading for today coming off its highs through Asian trading at 1.7006 (having broke the level twice and faltered) now trading at 1.6920/25 at time of writing. Should the European stocks continue to fall along with oil and gold, expect a move back towards 1.69 ahead of 1.6880 and 1.6850. Resistance back up at 1.6930 ahead of 1.6980 and 1.70. Should the 1.70 break and hold, expect further gains towards the 1.7050 level ahead of the major resistance at 1.7330. Favouring a corrective pullback towards 1.6850 ahead of the 38.2% fib ret level of 1.6750 before the next move northwards.
Eurodollar today coming off the highs of 1.4430/35 now trading at 1.4390 at time of writing. Should stocks and oil continue to correct, expect a move back towards 1.4330/35 ahead of 1.4310. Beyond here, the 38.2% fib ret level foe the week at 1.4270 seen as the next major support ahead of 1.4220. Resistance at 1.44 ahead of the Asian highs of 1.4430.
The Yen currently trading at the 50% ret level for the weeks trading at 94.95/00 against the dollar at time of writing having reached 95.45 during the Asian session. Further support at 94.75 ahead of 94.50/60. Resistance at 95.44 ahead of 95.80/90.
Overall consensus is further gains for the risks, not before a corrective pullback.
Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 08:07 GMT
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GBP hits 2009 high
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 08:59 GMT
by Matt James
A massive turnaround for the dollar as the risks reverse their positions post GDP figures assisted by soaring oil prices. The dollar continued to fall against all majors in thin trading conditions, the Euro, pound, franc and yen all gaining ground. With oil back above $70 per barrel, along with stocks continuing to push higher, we could all assume that we are out of the recession? In these thinner conditions and the fact that we are heading into the holiday season, gold will be the stable trade as the level of uncertainty within the stockmarkets latest moves continue. Former FED chairman Greenspan however did give stocks a boost stating that the recession may be ending. The fact still remains that no one is stating that we ARE indeed out of the recession, so still expect volatility certainly through the remainder of the summer.
European stocks continuing to move higher this morning assisting the cables lift to 1.6798, up 100 points on the day, the highs for 2009. Also seen strengthening against the Euro this morning which is trading at 84.80 at time of writing. Should the PMI figures come out better than forecast, expect the cable to continue its drive northwards. Next band of resistance at 1.6850. The next major resistance level at the 50% fib ret level for the last 2 years at 1.7330 now seeming achievable should earnings, stocks and oil continue to rise. Support back at 1.68 ahead of 1.6780 and 1.6750.
Eurodollar trading now back below the key resistance level of 1.43, being driven back down from the strength of the pound, not the dollar in early trading. Currently at 1.4275, expect further pressure when reaching the 1.43 figure once again. Should however the Euro follow the sterling trade, and holds above the 1.43 level, expect a move higher to 1.4335 ahead of 1.4370. Support now at 1.4240 ahead of 1.4195 (38.2% ret level for the weeks trading).
Yen also seen gaining now at 94.85 having hit the 38.2 ret level for the week at 95.06. Next support level at 94.60 and if continues, could see a move back down to the lows of Wednesday at 94.00/05. Resistance at 95.05 ahead of 95.20 and 95.50.
Published on Mon, Aug 3 2009, 08:59 GMT
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Last Day of the Month Trading − GDP the Key
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 09:15 GMT
by Matt James
Better than expected earnings giving the rise to the stocks along with oil in the US trading session yesterday which followed across into the Asian session. The Dow ended up nearly 84 points during the after hours trading finishing at 9154.46. European stocks currently trading lower, the emphasis today is the US GDP figures to give direction for the last trading day of the month. Whilst earnings figures have generally come out better than expected there have also been some heavy losses with some major companies, still giving the impression that we are not out of the woods yet. The statement that we have seen the stockmarkets rally too fast too soon still very much remaining in tact, expect to see further dollar strength running down the next quarter.
Cable trading for today currently at 1.6545/48 having rallied through the Asian session from 1.6480 reaching a high of 1.6574. Currently in a range of key resistance between 1.6550/55 to 1.6580 (having now had 4 attempts to break this level within the month of July). Should the GDP figures later this afternoon come out better than expected and stocks once again rally, expect a move back up to the highs of 1.6580 ahead of 1.66. Next key resistance above this figure is up at 1.6730/35 and whilst seems a long way off, still very achievable as long as stocks continue to push higher. Support back at 1.6520 ahead of the 38.2% fib level for the week at 1.6485. Should the GDP come out worse than expected, we could see a return back to 1.6457 ahead of the two year 38.2% fib level of 1.6433.
Euro trading today, hitting the weeks 38.2% ret level at 1.4125/30, currently trading some 35/40 points lower at 1.4090 at time of writing. Again as with cable, the US GDP figures being the key for the trading this afternoon. The 1.43 resistance level seems a very long way off and so the bias for today's trading is further sell off, however, should the stocks gain a boost from not only the GDP figures but further better than expected earnings due out later, could see a move back up towards the highs this morning at 1.4145/50 ahead of 1.4160 (50% ret level for the weeks trading), ahead of 1.4195/00.
Dollar soaring against the Yen once again having hit a low at 95.20, now trading at 95.65. GDP once again the key to direction, a better than expected figure showing that the economy is improving will push the figure back over 96 to 96.65/70 ahead of 97.20. Support at 95.40 ahead of the 38.2% ret level for the week at 95.05.
Published on Fri, Jul 31 2009, 09:15 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Signals
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 09:33 GMT
by Matt James
A further day of stock sell off in the states assisting the dollars strength yesterday during the US session, the Dow ending down 26 points, S & P down 4.47 and the NASDAQ down 7.75. The dollar also assisted by further sell off from crude giving the indication as suggested in yesterdays report that the recent rally has been to fast too soon and that a retracement is likely. Overnight through Asia stocks seen rising across the board which has continued though the European session at time of writing. Some earnings reports giving the lift back to the stocks, some strategists stating that we are at the trough, and heading north along with FEDs Bernanke's statement that the worlds largest economy is showing 'tentative signs of stabilisation.
Better than expected Nationwide house price data gave sterling the lift this morning both against the dollar and the Euro gaining some 130 points against the dollar and 60 against the Euro. Concern is still very much alive regarding continuing house price increases as banks are still reluctant to lend to businesses and households. The point at which that is resolved will be the true turning point that the recession is finally over and the economy can then strengthen.
Cable trading today as mentioned up 130 points reference house price data pushing though all of the fibonacci levels to trade at 1.6515 at time of writing. The next barrier at 1.6560 ahead of 1.6585. As stocks in Europe, specifically the UK continue to rise, expect the pound to continue its gain. Jobless claims out later today for the US which if better than expected will only allow cable to rise further. Should they come out worse expect the support at 1.6490 ahead of 1.6465 to be broken ahead of the 2 year 38.2% level at 1.6430/35. Against the Euro, trading statically at time of writing at 85.28.
The eurodollar trade up from the lows of 1.4008 to 1.4080 at time of writing. The gain northwards being halted by the sterling gain although consumer confidence better than expected. Should the trend continue along with the stockmarket rise, expect a move towards the 1.4125/30 (38.2% fib level for the week), having broke the 23.6% level. Should the 38.2% level break and hold, expect a move towards the 1.4160 level ahead of 1.1495. Support at 1.4040 ahead of the lows for the day at 1.4008.
Yen making another move above the 95 level, still not managing to hold the position. Currently trading at the 3 month 38.2% level at 94.85, a solid move northwards would see the yuan heading towards the 95.75 level. Support at 94.70 ahead of 94.50.
Published on Thu, Jul 30 2009, 09:33 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Signals
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 10:16 GMT
by Matt James
The stocks in the States ended their 11 day bullish run yesterday where the Dow closed 0.13% down on the day finishing at 9096.72. The Nikkei higher in Asia overnight albeit stocks overall fell, and European stocks trading higher at time of writing. Worse than expected earnings yesterday seemed the downfall of the markets allowing the dollar to gain some 135 points against the Euro and 165 points against the pound. Oil and gold down on the day indicating that the market hasn't got the steam needed to push for the next levels. UK data coming in slightly lower than expectations so no large reactions. Overall consensus is that the rally has gone 'too far too fast' and a correction is inevitable.
Cable trading today, off the highs of 1.6470, trading now some 100 points lower during the European session. Cable also weakening against the Euro now at 0.8645 at time of writing. Should we continue to see dollar strength, specifically if the US equity futures open lower, then expect a continued move down to 1.6310 ahead of the figure. Resistance back at 1.64 ahead of 1.6415/20. Euro/Pound trades coming off from the highs of 0.8655 now trading at 0.8640. Favouring further downside pressure, not before an element of retracement back towards 1.64.
Eurodollar falling this morning as fears that the rally seen over the last two weeks is running out of steam coupled with the CPI figures from the largest states coming in worse than expected. Support at 1.4130/35 ahead of today's lows of 1.4111. Resistance now at 1.4160 ahead of 1.4185 (38.2% ret level for the weeks trading). The failure to break the 1.43 level and hold indicates further downside pressure along with general consensus that the stocks once again have been overbought. Favouring further sell off specifically should we see a retracement back to the 38.2% fib level of 1.4185.
The Yen trades for today weakening against the dollar coming off the lows at 94.05, now trading at 94.70. Resistance at 94.80 ahead of 95.15/20. Support now down at 94.45/50 (38.2% ret level for the week) ahead of 94.20.
US futures and further stock movement the key for today's trading, keeping an eye on the oil prices.
Published on Wed, Jul 29 2009, 10:16 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Forecasts
Tue, Jul 28 2009, 08:32 GMT
by Matt James
The demand for the majors against the dollar gained momentum during the Asian trading overnight as comments from the RBA as demand increased for the AUD/YEN thus reversing euro/yens sell off. Asian stocks increased albeit closed where it started (down by 0.01%). Sterling following the euro demand pushing it to highs of 1.6555/60. Struggling at time of writing to push above that level having now formed a double top. The euro this morning the driving force coming off lows of 1.4220 reaching highs of 1.4295. Earnings again seen assisting the risks as stocks advance along with oil and gold this morning. Homesales in the States saw the largest gain in eight years climbing some 11% shedding further light that the economy is certainly showing signs of improvement.
Cable trading for today hitting resistance at 1.6555/60. Should stocks continue to rise, and the barrier broken, expect a move towards 1.6575 ahead of 1.6590 (high for the trading week). Support at 1.6518 ahead of 1.65 and 1.6490 (38.2% fib level for past two trading days). Should US equity futures show signs of rallying expect a bounce from 1.65 back up to the highs of today at 1.6555/60. Favour selling the cable near the return to the days highs of 1.6560 for a move back towards 1.65.
Eurodollar rallied this morning pushing just over the 1.43 level, now retracing back to the 23.6% level of 1.4275. Should a clear break emerge above 1.43, expect a move back towards the June (and years) high of 1.4350 ahead of the longer term projection of 1.4720. Support at 1.4270 ahead of 1.4255 (38.2% ret level for the last two days trading). Earnings still the tool for the direction, should there be further better than forecast earnings results, expect the stocks to rally further into the US session, thus assisting in the risk trades. Favour a sell should the trade falter and fail to break 1.43. Limit the trade at 1.4255, trail beyond that to 1.4240.
The Yen coming of its highs from yesterday at 95.38/40, now trading at 95 figure. Should there be further selling pressure for the dollar, expect a move back towards the 94.45 level (38.2% fib ret level for the weeks trading) ahead of 94.20. Resistance at 95.23/25 ahead of 95.40. Favour a selling opportunity should a break occur below 94.85/90.
Earnings and therefore stocks the key for today's trading. Also keep an eye on the oil prices, up at time of writing only by 0.5%. Consumer confidence also out later today for the States, better than expected a move north for the risks, worse, a move south.
Published on Tue, Jul 28 2009, 08:32 GMT
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Today's Forex Trading Signals
Mon, Jul 27 2009, 08:36 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks up in Europe giving the 11th day of gains as consensus from earnings and statements from the FED last week are all indicating the economy showing signs of improvement. Oil also gaining up 1% at time of writing at 68.8. Gold up 0.5% at 960.10. Now that the Dow has broken the 9000 level indicating investors are becoming comfortable coming back into the markets, expect to see correlation with the dollar once again. Big earnings week ahead, really giving the indication for direction for the rest of the year.... the make or break time.
Cable trading coming off from the highs of 1.6525 having hit lows of 1.6380/85. Currently trading at 1.6440/50 (38.2% fib level for the week, and for the last two trading days). Should the trend continues expect a move towards 1.6420 ahead of the lows of today of 1.6380. Resistance at 1.6480 ahead of 1.6515 and the highs of 1.6525. Favouring further downside pressure for the cable today albeit keep an eye on the euro/pound trade as demand has stabilised the dollar strength at time of writing.
Euro trading today coming off from the highs of 1.4260/65 to now trade at 1.4235 at time of writing. Expect a move towards 1.42 15/20 (38.2% fib level) ahead of the 50% level at 1.42. Resistance at the high of today, again, as with cable, downside pressure favoured. Germany's import price data coming in worse than expected along with the consumer loan growth declining to the slowest rate in history.
The Dollar/Yen today trading higher today having reached a low of 94.65 now trading at 95.05 at time of writing having reached a high of 95.15. Support back at 94.75 ahead of 94.45/50. A move higher favoured towards the high of today moving onto the high of Friday of 95.30.
Published on Mon, Jul 27 2009, 08:36 GMT
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Dow Breaks the 9000 as Predicted
Fri, Jul 24 2009, 09:32 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks in the US rallied to highs yesterday, the Dow breaking that mile stone figure of 9000, closing at 9069.29 some 2.12% up as earnings reports and housing data came out far better than expected. However, the earnings for Microsoft and Amex coming in after the bell disappointed the market. The Euro fell 80 points on the release of the information. Asian stocks also rallied, the Nikkei up 1.5% in overnight trading. European stocks this morning trading flat at time of writing indicating a slower start and a retracement for the dollar. Good PMI figures from Germany out this morning giving the lift back above 1.42 Oil now trading at 67.20 level, up once again, gold down at time of writing.
Cable trading today off from the highs of 1.6540/50 now trading at 1.6440. Should it break the 50& ret level of 1.6430 for the week, expect further downward movement towards 1.6390 ahead of 1.6350/60. Resistance at 1.6465 ahead of 1.6515. Stock movements still remain the key to the direction of the dollar as we are into the 10th day of the rally, expect a retracement. Nice head and shoulder pattern emerged for the cable indicating further dollar strength.
Euro trading today gained a lift from better than expected PMI figures from Germany along with cable weakness assisting the move. Currently trading at 1.4210 coming off its high of 1.4228. Should stocks falter later today during the US session, expect a move back towards 1.4180 ahead of 1.4150. Resistance at 1.4230 ahead of 1.4240. The earnings out yesterday that came out worse than expected will lay heavy in today's trading though the US.
Published on Fri, Jul 24 2009, 09:32 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 09:11 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks rising in Europe this morning once again having rallied through Asia overnight. Ended down in the US yesterday indicating a slowing down from the rally over the last week. Oil and gold both down again assisting the view that before we get that push to 9000 on the Dow for Q3, we will see dollar strength once again. Whilst Bernankes comments were bullish along with a smattering of better than forecast earnings, the sentiment is now for a sell off from the risks as the economy still isn't strong enough just yet to make a full recovery. Sterling gaining as retail sales figures came out better than expected for June up 1.2% against a forecast of 0.3%. The jobless claims out later today will be the key for US trading direction this afternoon.
Cable trading at 1.6530/35 at time of writing having hit a high of 1.6540. Should the trend continue and stocks in Europe gain, expect a move to the weeks high and key resistance of 1.6560. Support now at 1.65 ahead of 1.6480/85 with further support at 1.64 50/55 (38.2 fib level over the last two days). Pound gaining against the Euro today once again, better than expected retail figures giving the lift. Now trading at .8610 at time of writing.
Euro trading for the day currently at 1.4230/35 having hit a high of 1.4260/65. Stocks in Europe trading flat, awaiting data from the states later for the direction of the risks. Resistance at 1.4240 ahead of the high today of 1.4260/65. Support at 1.4225 (38.2% fib level over the last two days) ahead of 1.4210 and 1.42 figure. General consensus is that the stock rally seen over the past week will now falter and the emphasis will be back to the dollar. Favouring a move back towards 1.42 for today.
Published on Thu, Jul 23 2009, 09:11 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Outlook
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 07:58 GMT
by Matt James
Bernankes statements regarding the stabilising of the economy gave an overall positive reaction to trading yesterday. The seventh straight day for gains pretty much across the board for stocks being assisted by better than expected earnings for many companies (Caterpillar, Apple) albeit financials came under a bit of pressure due to CIT and its bankruptcy fears, giving dollar strength for most of the day which when taking a look at the charts this morning, is continuing its gain against the risks, specifically cable. The Euro and yen still driving northwards against the pound which is giving further weakness for cable. Oil and gold static at time of writing albeit oil had a lift from the earnings yesterday.
We seem to be seeing signs of correlation between the dollar and the stocks which was only assisted by those bullish tones from the FED Chairman. The steadying of the economy in the US will start to roll out across the rest of the world towards the end of 2009, beginning of 2010.
Cable continuing to be being pounded from all angles. The Dollar, Yen and Euro are all up this morning against sterling with no signs of let up yet. Currently trading at 1.6325/30, next support at 1.63 ahead of 1.6260/70 (lows for the week and the 38.2% ret level for the month). Resistance at 1.6350 ahead of 1.6375 and 1.64. Should stocks fall of today significantly, expect heavy dollar strength. Conversely, further stock advance will give the risks a lift, not with the same aggression should we get a fall. Euro/pound trading at 86.85 at time of writing, next stop north 87 (high for the month) ahead of 87.40. Support at 86.60 (38.2% ret level for the last 3 months) which if broken, expect a move towards 86.40 ahead of 86.
Eurodollar eventually managing to break the 1.42 level having had a low over the last 2 days of 1.4160. Trading at 1.4175 (low for the day), as with cable, should the stocks sell off today, expect a deeper move towards 1.4160 ahead of 1.4125 and 1.4110 (38.2% for the month). Resistance at 1.42 ahead of 1.4230.
Published on Wed, Jul 22 2009, 07:58 GMT
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Dollar direction ahead of Bernankes statement
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 09:07 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks during the US session and again in Asia showing bullish tones once again. Bernankes comments in the WSJ that there will be no exit from the QE programme anytime soon will certainly affect the trading today. The risk appetite currencies having come off highs of 1.6550 for the cable and 1.4250 for eurodollar. Equities in Europe up this morning marginally however already seen a sell off from the risks where cable is trading at 1.6449 at time of writing, eurodollar hitting lows of 1.4185/90, now retraced to 1.42.25/30. Yen seen strengthening against the dollar throughout yesterday and into the European open coming off its lows of 94.81, now trading at 94.10. Trading very much falling in line with our snapshot yesterday. Oil trading marginally higher this morning along with gold.
Cable hitting the 38.2% retracement level of 1.6435 following onto a low of 1.6425. Not enough weight to break this level, however support still at 1.6395/00 ahead of 1.6380. If stocks continue to gain for the seventh straight day expect a move back up towards 1.6480 ahead of 1.6520/25 and 1.6550. Coming off the lows against the Euro having traded at 85.90 early this morning, now at 85.50.
Euro trading today hit a low of 1.4180/85 now trading at 1.4215, having hit a high of 1.4235/40. Looking for a break below 1.4200/10 for a deeper move towards 1.4170 ahead of 1.4120. As with yesterdays report, resistance at 1.4250 ahead of 1.43. Strengthening against the pound today which seems to be limiting the cables upside momentum this morning.
Bernankes statement the key for the day. We are now in the seventh day of stock rally, however clearly seeing signs of light equity trading in Europe ahead of the meeting.
Published on Tue, Jul 21 2009, 09:07 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Outlook
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 14:10 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks along with oil heading north once again after a huge push northwards last week as data from the states very favourable to a bottoming out of the economic slowdown. Companies will be finding it difficult to come up with good earnings short term as jobs are still in the heavy zone, albeit coming off the highs over the last weeks. UK housing data assisting in the lift pushing cable back up to 1.6550 region, now subsiding to 1.6515 at time of writing. Eurodollar reaching highs of 1.4250, now at 1.4230. Yen coming off its highs against the dollar of 91.75, now trading at 94.50. We seem to be back on target for the push towards 9000 for the Dow for Q3, however don't fully bank on it coming easily from here. Many believe that the recent dollar strength (stock weakness) is now done with and the risks are back in the frame, however, banks need to be lending more, companies limiting their job cuts for short to medium term to hit that figure for the Dow.
Cable today coming off its highs now at 1.6490/00 heading for the 38.2% ret level for the day at 1.6470 for a further move towards 1.6440. Resistance at 1.65 ahead of 1.6550, assuming stocks and oil continue to gain. Coming of f the lows against the Euro trading at 86.22 at time of writing. Heading for the 50% ret level of 86.25 for the week, struggling to break and so expect a move back down towards 86.10 ahead of 85.80.
Euro traders today rangebound between 1.4250 and 1.4215. Looking for a break below 1.4200/10 for a deeper move towards 1.4170 ahead of 1.4120. Resistance at 1.4250 ahead of 1.43. Watch the trading of the stocks through the US session along with oil for direction. Meeting heavy resistance when reaching the 1.4250 level.
Published on Mon, Jul 20 2009, 14:10 GMT
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Dollar Strengthens Ahead Of Earnings
Fri, Jul 10 2009, 10:49 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks trading in and around where they started in Europe this morning, the Dow finishing slightly up at session end yesterday. Oil and gold still falling during European session giving the lift back to the dollar. Now trading at 1.6220 (from a high of 1.6375 as of yesterdays trading session) for cable and 1.3880 for eurodollar (highs yesterday of 1.4070). UK PPI figures mixed, up on input, down on output albeit not really affecting direction. The strength of the dollar is most certainly being driven by the earnings figures out next week which are expected to disappoint. The 'safe haven' Yen also trading higher across the board again through worries for next weeks earnings. G8 meeting ending today, no surprises there, global recession to be continuing for the foreseeable future, certainly until the end of the year and into Q1 of 2010. Our prediction that the dollar will strengthen over the summer, retrace during Q4 allowing the stocks to head back towards 9000 still very much in line with the correlation of stocks and dollar at the back end of the year into 2010 still very much in play.
Cable trading this morning through the 1.6230 area and onto 1.6115 at time of writing. If continues, look for a move towards 1.6180 ahead of 1.6150 (38.2% ret level for the week). Resistance at 1.6250 ahead of 1.6275/00. With stocks, oil and gold along with the G8 meeting outcome all showing signs of gloom, The strengthening of the dollar seems to be the only direction. Only saving grace for the risks will be the continuation of stock buying during the US session this afternoon, but with the earning forecasts for next week to be adverse, unlikely.
Eurodollar this morning plummeting albeit finding support at the 1.3880 level from highs yesterday of 1.4075. As with cable, nothing to stop the fall as earnings next week. The Yen also gaining ground against the single currency, along with the pound. Should we break and hold 1.3900, expect a move back towards 1.3880 ahead of 1.3840 (lows of the week). Resistance at 1.3930 ahead of 1.3955/60 and 1.3980. US session only saving grace right now for the Euro. Down some 200 points since the highs of yesterday, good selling opportunity should we get a retracement back to 1.3950/60.
Published on Fri, Jul 10 2009, 10:49 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, Jul 9 2009, 11:16 GMT
by Matt James
US stocks ending up higher yesterday as auctions well received along with comments from the FED reference the recession coming to an end towards the end of this year, certainly into 2010, falling inline with our predictions. Stocks falling throughout the Asian session by 1.4% pulling the Yen from its highs against the dollar from 91.80 to now trading at 92.85/90. European stocks trading higher this morning as trade balance data from Germany and UK came out better than expected. UK rate decision out later this morning, no surprises there we feel however await their comments reference the growth of the economy. US jobless claims out also, if better than expected could see a push northwards for the stocks. Oil up at time of writing by 2% at time of writing along with gold.
Cable trading today off from the lows sub 1.60 as of yesterday now trading at 1.62. Should we break and hold that expect a move towards the 1.6250 level (50% fib retracement for the week). Support at 1.6180 ahead of 1.6130 and 1.6110. UK rate and jobless claims the key for today's direction.
Eurodollar coming off the highs of 1.3980 (50% fib ret level for the week) now trading at 1.3960. If continues expect a move towards 1.3945 ahead of 1.39. Support at 1.3980 ahead of 1.4020. Jobless claims out later for the direction which if better than expected will see further risk appetite.
Published on Thu, Jul 9 2009, 11:16 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Outlook
Wed, Jul 8 2009, 11:06 GMT
by Matt James
Another pounding yesterday for the stocks in the US, down nearly 2%. Dollar and Yen strengthening across the board, oil down to $62.37 at time of writing giving the indications, as with yesterdays report that we are still in for further dollar strength. European stocks also trading lower this morning, having had a small lift into the green territory albeit very short lived. The fear that the earnings reports are going to show further weakness in the global economy and therefore the recession extending is certainly giving the lift to the greenback. Still bear in mind the uncertainty with the dollar as the worlds global reserve currency. We may see an element of retracement after the G8 meeting, putting the emphasis onto the Yen as a 'safe haven' trade. We may now see a sell off from the US stocks during the Summer months, then a drive forward for the end of the year. What we can say is that we are not out of the woods yet, no V shaped recovery as so many analysts thought.
Cable today trading within a reasonably tight range ahead of the G8 meeting starting in Italy today. High of 1.6140, now trading at 1.6080/85. Looking for a break below 1.6030 for a move towards 1.5980. If the dollar continues in its direction, then the 38.2% fib level over the last 3 months of 1.5860. Resistance at 1.61 ahead of 1.6125. If the retracement continues expect a move back up towards 1.6140/60. House prices in the UK year on year down below expectations giving further cable sell off. Euro still pounding sterling now trading at 86.65 at time of writing. Equity futures, oil and the comments coming from the G8 the keys for today.
Euro falling against the Yen over the last week, not as severe with the dollar. Trading at 1.3925/30 at time of writing again light trading ahead of the US open and the G8 meeting. Resistance at 1.3940 ahead of 1.3960 and 1.40. Support 1.39 figure ahead of 1.3880, 1.3850 and 1.38 (38.2% fib level for the last 3 months. Watch for the US stocks for direction this afternoon. Preference is that a break below 1.39 will be signal for the drive to the 1.38 level, even 1.3750.
Yen up across the board today, trading at 94.30 at time of writing against the dollar and 131.30 for the Euro. The fall in the stocks giving the lift over the past few days. A move below current levels would mean a move towards 93.80 and 92.65. Resistance at 94.70 ahead of 95.20 (38.2 fib level for the week). Stocks and oil the keys for today, not forgetting the G8 meeting outcome.
Published on Wed, Jul 8 2009, 11:06 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Outlook
Tue, Jul 7 2009, 10:19 GMT
by Matt James
US stocks ending higher at the close yesterday after heavy selling during last week. Still not a convincing stride forward to indicate a more positive move northwards for the stocks, more a retracement from dollar strength. Oil also making a move north, still at low levels along with gold. Light trading ahead of the G8 summit meeting where all eyes are on comments reference the long term stability of the dollar and its global reserve currency status. Stocks up in Europe this morning across the board in steady trading. In addition, earn season is just around the corner which without doubt will show little signs in overall improvement of the economy.
Cable trading coming off the highs for this morning just short of 1.63, now trading at 1.6205/10 at time of writing which if continues, expect a move towards 1.6180 then 1.6150 (lows of today's trading). Poor manufacturing economic data from the UK assisting the move down. Resistance at 1.6250 ahead of 1.63. Stocks and oil during the US session really have to show some sizeable gains or we will see further dollar strength by the close.
Stocks up in Europe giving the Euro the lift this morning and in addition, the German factory orders coming out better than forecast. Faltering on the move above 1.40 ahead of the 38.2 fib level for the week at 1.4005/10. If breaks and holds that level, expect a move towards the 1.4050 level ahead of 1.4080. Support at 1.3910 ahead of 1.3880.
Yen trading lower this morning after gaining yesterday against the dollar. Should we break 95.40, expect a move towards 95.55/60 ahead of 95.80. Support at 95.00 ahead of 94.80 and 94.50.
Published on Tue, Jul 7 2009, 10:19 GMT
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Today's Forex Market Outlook
Mon, Jul 6 2009, 13:25 GMT
by Matt James
4th July holidays in the states allowing the continuation of the strength in the greenback as stocks fell across the board in Europe. Oil and gold along with stocks assisting in the move with oil now at $63.81 at time of writing. Still looking for the move back up towards the $75/80 per barrel over the short to medium term once the sell off from the stocks has subsided. G8 meeting posing concerns over global economic sentiment and in true style as the stocks are selling off, the dollar will strengthen, how much more it has left to climb is the million dollar question.
Cable trading into the US session still looking to sell off as data from the US from the back end of last week still affecting trading along with the G8 meeting concerns. US equity futures down adding weight to the greenbacks moves southwards. Retraced from the lows of just over 1.61, now trading at 1.6165 at time of writing. Resistance at 1.6180/85 which if breaks and holds, could see a move back towards 1.6215 then 1.6240. Support now at 1.61 ahead of 1.6080, which if breaks and holds along with continual sell off from the stocks along with oil could see a return back to 1.60.
Eurodollar trading at the lows seen on June 25 and if continues, could see a return to 1.3835 ahead of 1.3795/00. Stocks and oil influencing the trade for today, need to break and hold a break below the 1.39 level for the rally to continue. Resistance at 1.3925/30 ahead of 1.3940/50.
Published on Mon, Jul 6 2009, 13:25 GMT
8
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 11:22 GMT
by Matt James
Heavy selling through the US session as predicted yesterday with the Dow finishing 214 points down on the day. Oil also down only assisting in the strength of the greenback. The risks retracing overnight during the Asian session for the eurodollar to the 38.2% level for the week (high of 1.42, low of 1.3930) and the cable back to the resistance level of 1.6430/35. European stocks selling off this morning at time of writing along with oil, gold up marginally though.
Cable trading very much in line with yesterdays view of the break below 1.6330 and holding would indicate a move southwards to 1.63 ahead of 1.6280, hovering around the 1.6315/20 level at time of writing. Resistance at 1.6390 ahead of major resistance at 1.6440/50. Euro sterling trading higher this morning at 85.75 at time of writing also assisting the weakening.
For the single currency trading today, up against the pound however, the poor retail figures out today limiting the upside potential. Hitting a high overnight of 1.4030 (38.2% retracement level for the week) now trading at 1.3990 at time of writing having hit a low of 1.3980. Should oil and stocks continue to fall, expect to follow yesterdays predictions of 1.3980, 1.3950 ahead of 1.3920/30. Resistance at 1.4030.
Dollar Yen hitting the predicted level of yesterdays report of 96 and 95.80, now trading at 95.95/00. Resistance at 96.25 which if breaks, expect a move towards 95.50. Support at 95.80 ahead of 95.30.
Published on Fri, Jul 3 2009, 11:22 GMT
5
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, Jul 2 2009, 13:10 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks in the US made a return back over the 8500 by the close yesterday even though the economic data coming out of the states was not favourable. The ADP report were worse than expected coming in at -473k (up marginally from last month). This was mainly due to the stimulus package set by the government not assisting the employers to increase hiring. The unemployment rate at 9.5% indicating a longer and slower recovery time for the economy. Oil down this morning at time of writing along with the European stocks and if this continues into the trading stateside, expect the dollar to strengthen further.
Cable traders today should be looking for a break below 1.6330 and to hold for further downside pressure for the pound and should look for a move to the 50% Fib retracement level for the month of 1.6280 before a heavy support of 1.6220. The key indicators now are oil and gold, and as they are still falling this morning along with the equity futures looking to open lower, all signs are there for dollar strength. As with so many US openings of late, we could so very easily see a turn by the end of the trading day. Resistance at 1.6430 ahead of 1.6490
Euro trading today coming off the highs of 1.4150/55 breaking through the 38.2 and the 50% retracement levels for the week hovering at the 38.2 % level for the month at time of writing. Support at 1.40, and 1.3980 which if breaks, expect a move towards 1.3920 level. Resistance at 1.4080 ahead of 1.4130.
Dollar Yen at the 38.2% retracement level for the week at time of writing, a break below heading for the 96 level ahead of 95.80.
Published on Thu, Jul 2 2009, 13:10 GMT
9
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Wed, Jul 1 2009, 09:33 GMT
by Matt James
As predicted in yesterdays snapshot, risks fell from their highs, stocks in the US just not managing to hold ground as US consumer confidence fell below 50 for June. Oil also coming off its highs yesterday assisting the greenbacks strength, albeit are up at time of writing. European stocks also up across the board along with US equity futures which if hold into the US session could see a retracement for the risk trades. Comments from FEDs Janet Yellen yesterday indicating that the interest rate should stay near zero for years to come may indicate a long term view of dollar weakness. The prediction for the Dow in Q£ is still 9000, and even 10000 by the end of the year where it is said that the recession will be nearly over. Oils medium term view is still $75/80 per barrel only assisting in the dollars weakness.
For today however and the cable trade, awaiting the ADP report later today, which if in line with expectation should see a boost to the stocks thus lifting the cable back up to the 1.6550 level this afternoon. Currently trading at 1.6430/35 having reached a high of 1.6480 and a low of 1.6385. Euro/Sterling still heading north having reached a high of 85.75, now trading at 85.60. Should we get another day of selling from the US stockmarket this afternoon and we break and hold 1.6380, expect a move back down towards 1.63 ahead of 1.6280.
Eurodollar trading today being lifted from the cross with the Yen and the pound along with better than expected PMI figures and retail figures from Germany. Should we break and hold 1.4080 expect a move back up towards the highs of yesterday. Should stocks fall again today along with oil, and we break the 1.40 level, then expect a retracement back towards the 1.3950/60 level.
Published on Wed, Jul 1 2009, 09:33 GMT
6
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Tue, Jun 30 2009, 12:00 GMT
by Matt James
Cable seen a real buying option this morning as housing prices came out better than expected, touching highs of 1.6744 and 85.30 (from lows of 84.40). Running out of steam at time of writing as UK GDP and business investment figures came out far worse than expected. GDP worst decline since 1958. Stocks in Europe lower at time of writing awaiting the US open for any change. Oil also coming off at time of writing giving the signs that we are in for a sell off from the risks during the US session, as long as stocks come off from yesterdays gains.
Cable, expect a move towards the 1.6540 50 level (38.2% ret level for the last weeks trading) albeit may move to the 1.6630 level before the fall. Conversely, should the US stocks and oil regain momentum, expect a move back up towards the 1.6650 and 1.6670 levels before moving over the 1.67 level once again.
Euro trading this morning coming off lows of 1.4070, now trading at 1.4125/30 at time of writing. Should we break the 1.4150 level, and it holds, expect a move back up to the 1.4190/00 level. Should stocks fall during the US session, expect a retracement back down to the 1.4080 ahead of the weeks 38.2 ret level of 1.4030.
Stocks, oil and consumer confidence figures the ones to watch for today's direction.
Published on Tue, Jun 30 2009, 12:00 GMT
12
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Fri, Jun 26 2009, 09:32 GMT
by Matt James
U S Stocks rallied yesterday up over 2% giving the lift for the risks, having had the dollar strengthen during the European session this morning. Oil stocks said to be assisting in the gains where it is at $70.90 at time of writing. Stocks in Europe this morning up, having now paired its gains allowing the dollar to retrace back from the highs of 1.65 for cable and 1.4062 for eurodollar. Should U.S stocks continue to follow yesterdays lead and gain further, expect the dollar to weaken. Conversely, a fall today would give the greenback a lift, albeit oil seems to be acting as a 'haven', look for a return to $75 - 80 per barrel over the coming sessions.
For cable today, house prices in the UK will influence the trade along with the sell off of eur/gbp. Strengthening this morning as European stocks rally, heading towards the 1.65 level at time of writing which if breaks and holds along with stock and oil gains expect a move to 1.6515/20 and 1.66. Should stocks in the states fall off or the barrier of 1.65 not broken, expect a retracement back to 1.6430 then 1.64 (38.2% ret over last 2 days).
Eurodollar trading this morning higher as with cable due to the European stocks and oil increases. Finding it difficult to break the 1.4060 level, at 1.4046 at time of writing. Demand seen at 1.40, onto 1.3980 (50% ret level for the week). Look for the impact on eur/gbp from house price data in order to give direction, along with US stock price pre market trading. Should stocks and oil continue to trade higher in the afternoon, expect the Euro to push towards 1.4060 and 1.41( 61.8% for the month)
Published on Fri, Jun 26 2009, 09:32 GMT
5
0
Today's Forex Market Signals
Thu, Jun 25 2009, 12:40 GMT
by Matt James
Feds decision yesterday in line with expectations albeit the comments made with reference to the economy improving lifted the greenback strengthening across the board today. Dow finished lower again and lower at time of writing in Europe. Asian stocks having a boost over night, Yen down from same information given from the Fed. Oil this morning trading higher at time of writing and if continues, could see a return to the $70 and $75 per barrel as uncertainty still remains. Data from the States later could see the stocks tumble further should the jobless claims come in worse than expected. Conversely, should we see an improvement, the risk aversion trades could see a lift.
For the Euro, need to break the support level of 1.3920 for a push to 1.39 figure, before yesterdays lows of 1.3890. Resistance at 1.3950 which if breaks and holds will see a return back to 1.3990/00. Await the US stocks for direction along with the jobless claims. Euro pound strengthening this morning heading towards the Tuesdays highs of 85.95/00, along with the cross with the Yen which would indicate that the preference would be to see a return to the 1.4020 level.
For cable, seen a sell off this morning hitting lows of 1.6240/45. Awaiting US opening for direction along with the jobless claims which if better than expected will give a boost back to the pound and 1.63 and 1.63.30/35 (38.2% fib level for the last two days). Support at 1.6250 which if breaks and holds, expect a move back towards 1.62/10. Euro pound struggling to break the current levels of 85.70, good selling opportunity back towards the 85.30 level (if breaks the 85.40 level)
Yen this morning being hit reference the comments made from the Fed regarding the 'improving economy'. Currently trading at 96 35/40. Head and shoulder pattern forming at current levels, which if breaks, will see a move back to the 95.90 level. Resistance at 96.60 which if breaks and holds, could see a move back towards 96.70 ahead of 97.20.
Published on Thu, Jun 25 2009, 12:40 GMT
2
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Wed, Jun 24 2009, 11:53 GMT
by Matt James
Having had the largest fall from the stock market this year, they are up this morning in Europe 21 points at time of writing. The feds signals out later weakening the dollar against the majors. Consensus is that there will not be talk of any interest rate increases until we see a more positive growth. Oil down at time of writing also ahead of the rate decision out later today at $68.77.
For cable, nice head and shoulder pattern and subsequently a sell off back down to the 1.6510 level where support was given meeting willing buyers back up to 1.6530/35. Should we continue an upside direction and we break the 1.6590/00 level, expect a move back up to the highs of today, and onto 1.6625 before the years high of 1.6670/80. Support back down at 1.6509 for a further move towards 1.6450/60 .
Eurodollar blasting through the 38.2 level at 1.4020/25 to 1.4005/10, retracing back to 1.4045. Should this continue, expect a move back up towards 1.4060/70. Support back down at 1.40 ahead of 1.3980. Aggressive moves on the USD/CHF assisting the move down from SNB intervention.
Keep a close eye on the US stocks and of course the FED meeting later. Worth selling the dollar on any dips below 1.6450 for cable and 1.3980 for eurodollar depending on stock market movements later in the US ahead of FOMC decision.
Published on Wed, Jun 24 2009, 11:53 GMT
8
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Tue, Jun 23 2009, 12:53 GMT
by Matt James
Heavy selling of stocks yesterday in N.Y. and through into Asia giving the greenback a further lift hitting both the Euro and cable predictions of yesterday. Stocks down marginally in Europe at time of writing, oil up marginally this morning trading at $67.72. We have now had the largest sell off from stocks in 2 months so on that basis, coupled with the fact that metals are broadly up across the board could mean that stocks could be up today, US pre market trading indicating this.
Cable up having now reached the 38.2 fib level for the last 2 days trading which if pushes through expect a move towards 1.6360 and then 1.64. Up some 130 points on the day so far. As long as the US stocks hold, expect the rebound. Support at 1.6280 which if breaks could expect a move back down to the 1.6230 and 1.6210 levels. Eur/gbp hindering the move up having weakened from yesterdays lows of 84.00/05 to 85.70 at time of writing.
Euro this morning strengthening against the buck moving some 180 points being assisted by the World Bank forecasts regarding growth. Should we break and hold the resistance level of 1.4015/20, expect a move back towards the 1.4040/50 before 1.41/10. Support at 1.3960 and 1.3930/40 before 13910/15.
Yen off the lows of 95, heading for the 96 level, and of breaks and holds, expect a move towards 96.30 (50% ret level for the week). Support at 95.60 through to 95.50
Keep an eye on the stock movements today following the housing data from the US.
Published on Tue, Jun 23 2009, 12:53 GMT
2
0
Today's Forex Signals
Mon, Jun 22 2009, 14:13 GMT
by Matt James
Stocks in Europe down today instigating selling off of the risk aversion trades. Oil also down over one and a half bucks at time of writing to $67.88 per barrel. Risks hit highs in N.Y. on Friday, cable to 1.6560/65 and Eurodollar breaking the 1.40 barrier to 1.4010/15.
Looking for a continuation into the US trading day of the sterling weakening. Expect the cable trade to 1.6330 level, should we break and hold the 1.6370/75 level. Resistance back at 1.6410 and if breaks and holds, could see a move towards the 1.6470 level.
For the Euro, heavy drop off today, following the cable trade and very much being influenced by the stocks. Hit lows this morning of 1.3825/30, retracing now a little at time of writing. If continues, expect a move back towards the 1.3750 level as seen last Tuesday. Rangebound between 1.3860 and 1.3830. Should we get a move northwards, expect a move towards the 1.3870/80 level before 1.3915/20. If stocks continue to fall, a move from these levels will be expected back down towards the 1.3830 level.
Published on Mon, Jun 22 2009, 14:13 GMT
8
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Fri, Jun 19 2009, 08:30 GMT
by Matt James
Saw the stocks rise yesterday in the US and through into Asia following better than expected jobless claims from the US. Stocks up again this morning in Europe at time of writing. Majors all in a tight range as not a tremendous amount of data out today. Oil up this morning, heading back up to the $72 per barrel which could give strength to the risk aversion trades later today.
For cable, should we break the resistance of 1.64, expect a move to the next resistance level of 1.6470/75. Support at 1.6350.
Euro trades for today, similar to cable, albeit weakening against sterling this morning. Should we see a move below 1.39, expect a move towards 1.3880 then 1.3850. A move above 1.3940/45, expect a move back up to 1.3970.
Yen needs to break the 97 level for direction northwards to 97.10 then 97.40/45, conversely a move below 96.70, look for 96.50 ahead of 96.20/30.
U.S equities the key for today in order to give overall direction prior to the weekend.
Published on Fri, Jun 19 2009, 08:30 GMT
9
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, Jun 18 2009, 12:33 GMT
by Matt James
The longest stock market downturn since January this year adding weight to the strengthening of the dollar today, seeing a low for the cable at 1.6180/90 albeit the eurodollar trading in a 80 pip range between 1.3910/90. Euro/gbp really retracing from the lows of yesterday at 84.29 now trading at 85.75/80 at time of writing, hitting a high today of 85.95 (38.2% fib level for the month). Cable weakness not only being squeezed by the stocks but poor UK retail sales figures, although the jobless claims came out better than expected. Jobless claims out later which fall in line with expectations, will weaken the stocks further.
For cable, look to test the 1.6140 level should the consensus prove correct later from the U.S, first breaking today's lows, and should momentum build look for the next support level at 1.6080. Keep an eye on the oil price, having fallen yesterday below the $68 per barrel, back up above $70 now, however, falling off again slightly at time of writing.
Should Euro follow the pound (likely), look for a move towards the 1.3900/05 level before heading towards the 1.3870/75 level (50% ret level from the lows of Tuesday to the highs of today). Keep a close eye on the cross of the Euro/pound as a return to the 87 level favoured.
Published on Thu, Jun 18 2009, 12:33 GMT
6
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Tue, Jun 16 2009, 12:34 GMT
by Matt James
Heavy selling from the stock markets yesterday in the states giving the strength back to the dollar, giving some back this morning through the Asian trading. Stocks up this morning in Europe, seeing good data from the UK reference retail and consumer price indexes along with the German investor confidence figures jumping to a 3 year high. We will get the measure of the US stocks positions from their data later on today. Oil up, heading towards the $72 per barrel, assisting the weakening of the dollar.
Eurodollar squeezing up to the 38.2% retracement level for the last weeks trading (1.3910/15) albeit struggling to break above it at time of writing. Should we break that figure, expect the retracement to continue to 1.3960/65, should that fail, and we get the 'double top', expect a fall back down to the 1.3850 level ahead of 1.38 figure. Watch the oil as always along with the US equity futures.
Cable, as already mentioned lifting from the data out of the UK today. Nice reverse double top during the Asian session. If it holds above the 1.6470/80 level and the stocks and oil continue to rise, expect a move back up to the 1.66 level. Still strengthening against the Euro, down to 84.38 at time of writing. Stocks really have to fall off in this afternoons US trading to get to the support level of 1.6200/10. Should we break the retracement level of 1.6380/85 level (38.2), may see the correction. Preference though should US data come out better than expected see the move towards the 1.66 level.
Yen today coming off the lows of 96.05/10 reaching 97.05 level at time of writing. Should it break and hold the current level, expect a move back up towards the 97.35 level ahead of 97.65. Many traders feel that the Yen weakness has run its course and if so, expect a move back towards the 96.70 level ahead of the lows of today. Again, see what happens with the US stocks as well as the data later.
Published on Tue, Jun 16 2009, 12:34 GMT
12
0
Today's Trading Signals
Fri, Jun 12 2009, 10:51 GMT
by Matt James
Saw good gains for the risk aversion trades yesterday as jobless claims along with the retail figures from the US lifted the equities. Oil also a major influencing factor to the move along with the US treasury sell off. Didn't quite hit the highs this year of 1.6665/70 for the cable albeit, pushed way above the 1.6490/95 as predicted to 1.6628. Oil back below the $72 per barrel along European stocks falling at time of writing, assisting in this mornings retracement back below the 1.6435 level (23.6 fib level) heading for the next support level of 1.6380 and if continues, on to 1.6315/20 level. Needs to break the 1.6426 level (38.2 fib from the highs of 2.1170 and the lows of 1.3490).
Euro trading yesterday also saw the gains as predicted pushing over the 1.4145 level (ACfx). Retraced this morning to 1.4015/20 as poor European industrial production levels were announced. Trichets speech later today may also weigh on the euro. Looking for a move lower to test 1.3990 and then 1.3950/60. Should we break the support levels mentioned, look for a move down towards the 1.3755/60 (major support level)
Yen finally moving back over the 98 level currently trading at 98.25/30. Still looking for the break above the 98.40 level to re test 98.80/90. 101.50/60 the next major support level.
Published on Fri, Jun 12 2009, 10:51 GMT
11
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Fri, Jun 12 2009, 10:48 GMT
by Matt James
Saw good gains for the risk aversion trades yesterday as jobless claims along with the retail figures from the US lifted the equities. Oil also a major influencing factor to the move along with the US treasury sell off. Didn't quite hit the highs this year of 1.6665/70 for the cable albeit, pushed way above the 1.6490/95 as predicted to 1.6628. Oil back below the $72 per barrel along European stocks falling at time of writing, assisting in this mornings retracement back below the 1.6435 level (23.6 fib level) heading for the next support level of 1.6380 and if continues, on to 1.6315/20 level. Needs to break the 1.6426 level (38.2 fib from the highs of 2.1170 and the lows of 1.3490).
Euro trading yesterday also saw the gains as predicted pushing over the 1.4145 level (ACfx). Retraced this morning to 1.4015/20 as poor European industrial production levels were announced. Trichets speech later today may also weigh on the euro. Looking for a move lower to test 1.3990 and then 1.3950/60. Should we break the support levels mentioned, look for a move down towards the 1.3755/60 (major support level)
Yen finally moving back over the 98 level currently trading at 98.25/30. Still looking for the break above the 98.40 level to re test 98.80/90. 101.50/60 the next major support level.
Published on Fri, Jun 12 2009, 10:48 GMT
2
1
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, Jun 11 2009, 10:55 GMT
by Matt James
As predicted in yesterdays report, had the sell off from cable back down to the 38.2% level of 1.6240/50, retraced now to 1.6464 at time of writing. Eurodollar exactly the same hitting the desired level of 1.3950/70 (again as predicted). Yen again back down towards the 97.20 level hitting a low of 97.05/10.
Waiting for the jobless claims later this afternoon, and should we be inline with the consensus, along with the US retail figures, expect a strengthening in the greenback. Oil still driving forward reaching just under the $72 per barrel at time of writing. This will normally weaken the dollar still further however, depending on the stocks direction (higher this morning in Europe) could see a reversal and strength once again for the dollar.
so, for the cable traders, should we break the highs of today (1.6490/95), and holds, expect a move back up towards this years highs of 1.6665/70. Oil and stocks very much influencing this trade. Conversely, we could expect a drive through the support level of 1.6365/70, then onto yesterdays lows of 1.6230/40. Our preference is that the data should lift the stocks further and along with the higher oil price should see the move back up for sterling (especially as the eur/gbp trade is falling off so heavily).
Euro traders, again could see the drive higher on the back of positive US data, however, with the eur/gbp and the cross with the Yen also falling, may see the weakness conversely with the pound dollar trade. Needs to break the support of 1.3975/80 and hold for a further drop towards yesterdays lows of 1.3915/20. Should the emphasis be on the risk trades this afternoon following that data and we break the topside (resistance level) of 1.4050/60, expect a move back up to test 1.4145.
For the Yen, a move back up above the 98 level seen the move for today, back up towards the 98.40/50 level before 98.85/90.
Published on Thu, Jun 11 2009, 10:55 GMT
3
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Wed, Jun 10 2009, 10:27 GMT
by Matt James
Yen hit the desired mark (ACfx level of 97.20) as risk aversion trades retraced. Cable also surpassing the suggested figure of 1.6235. Good data coming out of the UK today really assisting the move as industrial and manufacturing surpassing expectations. Now seen coming off the highs of today of 1.6440/45. Currently at 1.6340/50 at time of writing and if it continues to retrace, look for a return to 1.63 then 1.6205/10 (38.2% ret level over the last two days). Stocks up in early European trading, albeit dropped of significantly assisting the strength of the greenback. The comments from UKs BOE MPC member Barker re interest rates staying low for the foreseeable being an influencing factor of the move.
Oil up over $71 per barrel this morning which under normal circumstances will weaken the dollar, see how the US equity futures fair later at the open. Should we get a higher open in the states and it holds, expect cable to head back to the highs of today at 1.6440.
Euro back up above 1.41 however, not able to contain. Again, as with cable, should we see stocks higher, expect a move back up to the highs of today and if holds up to 1.42. Conversely, a move below 1.4015/20, expect a move to 1.3950/70.
Stocks and oil (as always) the indicators to watch today for our direction.
Published on Wed, Jun 10 2009, 10:27 GMT
2
0
Today's Trading Signals
Tue, Jun 9 2009, 10:37 GMT
by Matt James
Cable breaking the topside prediction of 1.5980/85, moving on the also break the 38.2% fib level of 1.6130/35 (for the week) as well as stocks and oil ending higher is enough for the dollar to weaken this morning. Hitting a low during the Asian session, back down to 1.5985/90, and a high of 1.6175/80 giving a 200 point move already today. Retracing at time of writing to 1.6108 and the US stocks indicating a lower open could see a move back to 1.6035/40 level (38.2% of the days highs and lows). Saying that, European stocks heading higher which could easily see a move back up to the 1.6235 level.
For the Euro, retraced nicely back to the days 38.2 fib level at time of writing ( 1.3907) having hit a high of 1.3965. If we continue to see the stocks fall of during the US session this afternoon, expect a move back towards the 1.3850 level, even to the lows of yesterday at 1.3805/10.
Yen as predicted a good sell yesterday hitting lows of 97.80 (23.6% fib level) as at this morning, not quite getting to the 97.25/30 levels (38.2%). However, could see that move later today down to those levels if the risks drive higher.
Published on Tue, Jun 9 2009, 10:37 GMT
6
0
Today's Trading Signals
Mon, Jun 8 2009, 09:27 GMT
by Matt James
UK in turmoil as Gordon Browns labour party suffering heavily in the European voting last night. Coupled with the expenses scandals with a number of MPs resigning adding uncertainty to the overall government picture. We must also remember that the pound has most certainly been overbought now seeing an 850 point retracement since Wednesday last week.
As predicted on Friday, we saw a move through the 1.5850 level, reaching a low today of 1.58/02 (just above the 38.2% fib ret level of 1.5794 from the lows of 1.4405 to the high of 1.6650/55). I the pressure to the downside continues to build, the stocks keep doing the same and we break and hold below the 1.5790/95 level, expect a move towards 1.57/10, 1.5530/35 and then a key level of 1.5490. On the topside, should we break 1.5870/75 to 1.5915, expect a move to this mornings highs of 1.5980/85, although nothing indicating pound strength now, need to see how the US equity futures open. Oil this morning below $67 per barrel, just adding weight to the greenback.
Euro also fallen this morning some 150 points although strengthening against the pound this morning at time of writing. Hovering around the 50% ret level from the lows of the month (1.3415/20) to the highs of 1.4340/45, at 1.3875. If we see a break below this level and holds, expect a move towards 1.3770, on the topside, should we retrace back above 1.3970/75 and 1.40 (resistance) expect a move towards 1.4040/50.
Good selling opportunity for the Yen today, having been dropping off since the back end of Fridays trading. Expect a move down towards the 97.25/30 level.
Published on Mon, Jun 8 2009, 09:27 GMT
1
1
Today's Trading Signals
Fri, Jun 5 2009, 10:11 GMT
by Matt James
As predicted in yesterdays report, dollar strength all the way falling some 3 cents, correlating with the stock market this time. Given the fact that the U.S jobless market is showing signs of recovery which obviously gave the stocks a further lift which intern gave the dollar its direction further to the two rate decisions of yesterday morning. A huge cabinet reshuffle for the U.K also giving uncertainty for the pounds direction at this time and looking at the cross trade with the Yen and the Euro only supporting this. Cable moving towards the 1.60/10 level (38.2% retracement level for the last month) which hold a significant support barrier. Should this give way and hold, expect to see a move towards 1.58/10.
Oil this morning is up at time of writing and heading towards the $70.00 per barrel which if hits will only support the risk aversion trades further. We are expecting the non farm payrolls to come out better than expected and in doing so, will see the U.S stocks increase, which could see a reversal in the dollar strength and see cable head back up towards 1.6260/70.
Euro benefiting from the cable weakness, seeing the eur/gbp reaching a high of 0.8860/70 (not seen since May 21). Still within the range as stated yesterday which if breaks on the topside (eur/usd) of 1.4240, expect to see a return to the highs of 1.4335/40 which if holds firm, could see a return back up to 1.4630/35 (61.8& retracement of the highs of 1.6045 to the lows of 1.2340/45).
Should cable drop below 1.60 (1.5970), we are looking to sell, buying back at 1.5820 (ahead of the 50% fib level for the month). Should we get a reversal, we are buying at 1.62 to take profit at 1.6250 (ahead of the 38.2% for the week). For the Euro, buy at 1.4250, sell at 1.4320. We haven't seen the yen break that 97 level and in doing so are looking to sell, taking profit at 95.60.
Published on Fri, Jun 5 2009, 10:11 GMT
1
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, Jun 4 2009, 09:12 GMT
Cable hitting a low of 1.6210 overnight having now retraced to 1.6430/35 at time of writing, the Halifax housing data influencing the rally in the pound. Stocks in Asia assisting the strength of the greenback against the pound and the Yen. Euro not suffering from the same fate and indeed continued to strengthen overnight from the lows of yesterday of 1.4109 and reaching 1.4240/45. Rate decisions from the BOE and Eurozone the key for the this mornings trading and looking for a southside move for the cable heading down towards the lows of 1.6210/15. Eurodollar will follow suit once the rate decisions have been announced, not to the degree of cable though, expect 1.4150 as the support which if breaks a move towards the 1.4110 levels. Also keep an eye on Trichets speech soon after the eurozone rate decision. QE will invariably be on the cards and if mentioned, will only assist in the sell off.
Stocks higher this morning in Europe along with oil surging almost a buck higher at time of writing. Gold also up. The increase in the oil price specifically will normally weaken the dollar and until the rate announcements pass, don't bet on it! Jobless claims out this afternoon for the U.S and if better than expected/previous figure will only assist the stock market, thus weakening the dollar. As long as cable breaks and holds the 1.6440/45 level, expect a move back up to 1.6650/60.
Yen in a range of 95.30 and 96.70/75. If breaks the lows expect the 94.50, highs expect a move towards 97.00 for a further mover to 97.20/25 (May 28 high)
Published on Thu, Jun 4 2009, 09:12 GMT
3
0
Today's Market Outlook
Wed, Jun 3 2009, 09:12 GMT
by Matt James
Well the stocks surged again yesterday during the U.S session and as predicted, cable having broke the 1.6430 level and the resistance level of 1.65 now heading towards 1.6770/75 (yesterdays key resistance level ACFX). Cable reaching a high of 1.6665 this morning, retracing at time of writing back to just below the 1.66 level. If the trend continues downward, expect to reach 1.6530 ahead of 1.6400. Euro also not wavering and as with the cable reaching new 2009 highs of 1.4330/35, and as with cable retracing at time of writing to 1.4250/60. If trend continues and breaks the 38.2 fib level (yesterdays lows to today's highs) of 1.4245/48, expect a further fall to 1.4220 then 1.4130 being the next real support level (weeks low to high at 38.2%) .
Pending home sales yesterday really helping with the move and whilst we were expecting a drop, more than doubled from last month. Should the PMI figures come out strong, expect a further move north for the pound heading towards the highs since October 2008 of 1.6660/70. A break above will see a move to 1.6720/25 then onto the ACFX consensus figure of 1.6770/75.
Stocks this morning down along with oil at time of writing, however, as with some many days of late, may see a sell off in the morning, only to pull them back in the afternoon session in N.Y.. If that is the case expect the dollar to weaken once again and for the risk aversion trades to reach the highs of today and beyond. Conversely, if we continue to see a sell off in N.Y. then expect dollar retracement back to the levels noted above.
For the Yen traders, the key support level now at 95.30/40 needs to be broken for any move down towards 95.15 then 94.50/60. However, if the 96.70/80 breaks, 97.25 then 97.65.
Published on Wed, Jun 3 2009, 09:12 GMT
2
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Tue, Jun 2 2009, 10:13 GMT
by Matt James
The fact that the Dow had broken and held the barrier of 8500 surging to 8700 means that the risk aversion trading will still be the players over the short term. The target for the Dow of 9000 by Q3 (as predicted over last few weeks by ACFX) very much in sight now. The consensus still however that before that break of 9000, we will see a fall off from the stocks which will short term strengthen the dollar. US equity futures looking for a lower open at time of writing which for today should see a fall off from the cable and euro trades seeing cable moves towards 1.6225/30 (38.2% for this week) and the euro heading for the 38.2% retracement of 1.4070/80 for a further move towards 1.4020/25 should the previous level break. Oil and gold off from yesterdays highs at time of writing just adding to the strengthening of the dollar. The unemployment levels in the eurozone are the highest for over 9 years again adding weight to the greenback.
Pending homesales from the states the next item to follow, if the fall is as great as to be expected, we will see further selling on the stockmarket which in turn could strengthen the dollar further. All very short term as we have the ADP report at the end of the week, expecting further falls and the rate increasing to a consensus of 9.2
Should we break the 1.6430 level expect to test yesterdays highs of the N.Y. session and if we break and hold above the 1.65 level could very easily see a move towards the 61% retracement level from the 1.8725 peak in September 2008 to the lows of 1.35 in Jan 2009 of 1.6770/75.
Published on Tue, Jun 2 2009, 10:13 GMT
3
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Mon, Jun 1 2009, 09:21 GMT
by Matt James
Cable seems to be unstoppable at the moment with the euro following closely (EUR/GPB below 0.87 at time of writing). The Yen again has broken that 94.00 level really pushing the greenback down. Stocks are up, oil up and gold also heading north. When will it end? no time soon by the look of things. As per our previous reports, the next target is the 1.6426/30 (38.2% of the highs of 2.1170 Nov 2007 to the lows of 1.3527 in Jan 2009, after this 1.68 level will be targeted. For the euro 1.4380/00 and then 1.4630. All of this stated, do expect an element of sell off over the coming week, we have BOE and EURO rate decisions along with the bankruptcy of GM (sell off from the stocks, to strengthen the dollar). Should we see retracement for the early part of this week, expect a move for cable to 1.6250 for a further move to 1.6160 (being the 38.2% retracement level for the last week. For the euro, a move back to 1.4140 and should momentum build, 1.4070/75. Yen a move back towards 95.50/60.
All indicators for today are still pointing for the risk aversion trades to still surge however, the UK having already had the PMI figures coming out positively. Already talk of the jobless claims again being hit very hard for Thursday, there just doesn't seem to be anything positive coming out of the states in order to give that dollar strength. Long term though, a cheaper dollar will mean more exports, thus boosting the economy which along side the surge in the stock markets will put the States firmly up there again, certainly by the end of the 2009.
There is an underlying tone from the stock market that we will see a drop back below the 8000 on the dow before the move towards 9000 (target for Q3). This would then add to the weight of retracement for this week before the push forward once again.
Published on Mon, Jun 1 2009, 09:21 GMT
2
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, May 28 2009, 09:40 GMT
by Matt James
Dollar up this morning across the board, seems a common situation over the last few days where we see selling of the risk aversion trades in the morning, only to buy them back in the afternoon, no reason for today to be any different. Cable hitting a low today so far of 1.5850/55, now 90 points up at time of writing. Eur/USD dropped below the 1.38 level only to meet support taking it back to 1.3860 at time of writing. The USD/Yen retraced (as stated in yesterdays snapshot) breaking the 97.00 not seen since 12 May. Should Eur/USD break the 1.39 level, expect a move to test yesterdays highs of 1.40. Cable look for a move back over the 1.60 level an again to test the highs of yesterday of 1.6085. The risk aversion trades still heavily influenced by the stocks, if we see the US equity futures rise today, then short the dollar. Also keep a close eye on the oil prices, down today at time of writing and if fall further, only assisting in the weakness of the greenback.
Published on Thu, May 28 2009, 09:40 GMT
3
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Wed, May 27 2009, 09:21 GMT
by Matt James
Well cable finally crossed that all important 1.60 level (ACfx prediction for the last 2 weeks) and the pressure is on for the next target of 1.6030/90. UK house prices as well as UK mortgage lending figures certainly assisting in the move. Yesterdays snapshot and predictions stated that we should be watching the stock and oil prices for the direction and in doing so would have allowed those long cable positions to gain some very good profit. Oil up again over $62 a barrel along with US, Asian and currently UK stocks all in the green really pushing the risk aversion trading.. The threat still remains from North Korea attacking the South and with this in mind along with the good consumer confidence figures from the states could see a reversal back to the 1.5950 level then to the 1.5925 level (38.2% retracement level of the lows from yesterday 1.5780 to today's 1.6009). Should momentum gain to the southside and we break the 1.5890 and holds, expect a move to the 1.5850/60 level. On the upside (more indications that this is likely and certainly our consensus) expect the move to the 1.6030/50 level, and for the short term even a move towards the 1.64/65 level. For the euro, upside momentum certainly not as strong as the sterling (eur/gpb at 0.8730/40, near the Feb lows of 0.8650/60) and seems to be meeting resistance at the 1.40 level. Should this break and hold above, expect a move towards the 1.4050 level for a further move towards the 1.4180/90. Should that euro just not have enough steam and we see a move below 1.3950, expect a further correction to 1.3890. For the yen, we are favouring a move back up to the 96.00/20 level as long as the euro and pound remain strong.
Published on Wed, May 27 2009, 09:21 GMT
3
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Tue, May 26 2009, 10:06 GMT
by Matt James
Weakness across the board for the euro and the pound, mainly being influenced by the drop in the stock markets (4th day for the S & P) and the information from Germany regarding their banks toxic debt. The fact that the oil prices have dropped also influencing the strength in the greenback. General consensus however is that the dollar still remains week and the cable figure of 1.6030/90 still very much in view. With the concerns in North Korea reference nuclear missile testing only assisting the dollar even further. We would look at buying cable again at 1.5780/85 with stops at 1.5720 (just below the 50% retracement from the low of 21/5 at 1.5514 and a high of 1.5949) looking for a return back to 1.5850 area. Keep an eye on the oil and stocks prices in order to gain the direction for now.
Published on Tue, May 26 2009, 10:06 GMT
4
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, May 21 2009, 09:40 GMT
by Matt James
Risk aversion trades taking a battering this morning due to the downgrading of the S & Ps outlook to negative. Pound fell some 200 points in a little over 10 minutes indicating the huge concerns of the UK economy. Euro reluctantly following the cable trade falling from highs of 1.3839 to 1.3739. The stocks this morning obviously trading lower adding the weight to the dollar. Euro trading at the 38% fib retracement level of today's moves at the time of writing, and if the pound continues to fall will find itself heading for the lows of 1.3680/5 (38% of the lows of 18/5 to today's high). Should cable continue to slide along with stock sell off, expect a move down to the 1.5520/4 level and even 1.5435/40, keeping in mind the 200 dma of 1.5539. However, the US economy still unstable with talks of further quantitative easing measures to be implemented, we could so very easily see a return of the risk aversion trades and see the cable head towards the target mentioned yesterday of 1.6030/90. Yen hit new highs against the dollar also today, indicating a good buying opportunity, to recover to 95.20 as long as the euro and cable strengthen against the greenback. Conversely, should the Yen still gain against the dollar, expect a bounce off the 19/3 low of 93.60.
Gold has gained this morning, oil however dropped slightly. All eyes now looking at the US jobless claims out at 2.30pm cet.
Published on Thu, May 21 2009, 09:40 GMT
2
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Wed, May 20 2009, 20:42 GMT
by Matt James
Dollar strengthening this morning against the pound, however the euro still holding gains of yesterday. The weakness of the greenback against the Yen drove the stocks lower in Asia last session making export prices increase. Expect a retracment on the Yen to 94.40/50. Stocks in the UK are flat at the time of writing and depending on the pre market trading of the US will give direction for the dollar and risk aversion trades. Our consensus is still for sterling to head towards the 1.6030/90 (called for all week) as long as we can push above the option barrier interest of 1.59. Looking at the analytical data, the pound has had three attempts at that barrier (1.59), which could indicate a move back towards the 1.5715, then 1.5601 (38.2% fib retracement for the week). Looking at the intraday fib chart, we have already hit the 38.2% of 1.5753/60 indicating a reversal. Currently trading at 1.5840. As stated, the 1.59 level is key for further upward movement, a clear break below the 1.5750 would indicate a good selling opportunity. Euro will follow the pounds moves today, as the single currency has a range of about 70 pips.
Keep an eye on the speech later from Feds Bernanke and then Geithner especially if there is any discussion of the US being dropped from its AAA rating status.
Published on Wed, May 20 2009, 20:42 GMT
1
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Wed, May 20 2009, 09:27 GMT
by Matt James
Risk aversion trades are back in the frame as equities continue to rise. We are tending to find that the sterling is leading the trading, others to follow. Euro still remaining strong albeit finding it difficult to hold above the 1.37 level (23/4 and 13/5). Consensus is that the pound is still undervalued and is really looking to reach the 1.6030/90 level equating to a 38.2 fib retracement level correction from the lows seen in January 2009 from the highs seen in August 2008. As long as the equities continue to rise (reverse correlation), this could certainly be reached within the short term.
For today, as long as we can break above the 1.5530 level, expect a move towards 1.5570/80, support remains at 1.5480 for the pound. Watch for the BOE minutes reactions as some members are suggesting a larger stimulus will be needed. For the Euro, if it breaks the 1.3670 level (hasn't over the last 5 sessions) expect a move towards the 1.3720 level. USD/YEN a buying opportunity, look for stops above the 96.20 level.
Oil and gold on the rise also today confirming the move away from the safe haven trades.
Published on Wed, May 20 2009, 09:27 GMT
1
0
Today's Forex Market Outlook
Thu, May 14 2009, 08:51 GMT
by Matt James
General dollar weakness across the board this morning still mainly due to correlation to the stock market rallies. The recent equity boost indicating that we are no longer in a bear market rally, but a market that has moved from neutral to bullish and in fact some equity gurus indicating a 10000 year end for the Dow. How long the risk aversion trades will last long term will hinge primarily on the direction of the stock market and shorterm on the ECB announcement and the stress test results, both Thursday. If the rate is cut to the record level of 1%, as well as statements reference QE, the euro will be forced lower against the dollar which will invariably bring sterling along with it.
Yen also generally lower across the majors reaching a high of 99.20 against the greenback. Euro and Pound trades also reaching fresh two week highs.
The overall feeling though is that we will see an element of dollar strength short term as risk aversion fades, still however keeping in mind the influence of the stock market direction.
Published on Thu, May 14 2009, 08:51 GMT
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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