http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-11-23.htmlLast week market sentiment was hurt by the surprisingly weak housing starts. The data were so important, because in October tax credits for home purchases were expected to be phased out by Nov 30. If this picture is confirmed by the figure on new home sales, a recent recovery on the housing market will be perceived as a temporary and government fueled. The story on housing data is a bit complex. The tax credits were first granted in January and were about to persist for 11 months. Each newMon, 23 Nov 2009 11:49:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-11-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-11-16.htmlHow much of the real recovery? That question has been resounding in mouths of economists and investors alike for a long while. Pessimist pointed numerous times at the governments as “culprits” when it comes to solid economic numbers. What will happen when its gone? Well, a grain of truth will be revealed this week with first US figures influenced by diminishing lifeline from the government. Car sales incentives - an indirect support for carmakers expired and tax credits for home sales are onMon, 16 Nov 2009 10:52:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-11-10.htmlAfter an extremely intensive start of the month, investors are granted a few days of nearly empty calendar. As they look towards new peaks on EURUSD and major stock indices they might take a look back at released data. The current week will be summarized with trade balance and University of Michigan sentiment figures in the US. However, before that there will be hardly anything crucial, save for the inflation report in the UK shaping sentiment for the pound. Against this background, China’sTue, 10 Nov 2009 09:40:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-11-02.htmlAfter a bearish end of October investors aren’t left with an empty calendar in the first days of the new month. Actually, the data and events scheduled for this week may decide on the sentiment in a longer perspective. October turned out to be quite similar to September when it comes to market sentiment, that is a strong two decades were followed by a nervousness at the end of the month. After investors turned back to selling soon after the US GDP release, a chance of a deeper correction onMon, 02 Nov 2009 14:21:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-10-26.htmlA couple of months ago early indicators, especially PMI indices pointed to a vital recovery in the British economy. Despite those encouraging signs, Bank of England’s monetary council remained pessimistic and the GDP figures for the 3rd quarter confirm they had a point there. While the British GDP data caused a significant depreciation of the pound, their impact on broader market was marginal. The US GDP advanced release might be a different story. According to a preliminary release theMon, 26 Oct 2009 14:09:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-10-19.htmlInvestors reacted nervously to the announced loss of Bank of America (29 cents per share). What else is on the books of the banking giant (mis)led in the last couple of years by K.Lewis who left the bank in dishonor (and without a salary for this year). However, apart from this disappointment, the last week brought about mostly bullish news, far better than one would anticipate a mere half a year ago. Despite a bearish comments from M.Withney (the same one who buoyed banking stocks previously)Mon, 19 Oct 2009 10:13:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-10-12.htmlA calm start of the week might be a bit deceiving. While the bunch of macroeconomic releases might not be that crucial for the market, investors will be speculating on some crucial earnings reports later in the week. The speculation will be fueled by the fact that major stock market indices and currency pairs are at the key long term levels. The stocks didn’t need a lot of time to shrug off another correction attempt made two weeks ago as a result of weaker US macro data. After a rebound inMon, 12 Oct 2009 11:07:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-09-28.htmlThe past weekend was very intensive on the political front. G20 conclusions and German parliamentary elections may have important long term consequences but markets are so far focused on more short term indicators and on this front there is a lot pay attention to. The G20 agenda had been very ambitious. Global leaders were about to tackle global imbalances and bonuses in the banking sector, among others. The latter was a bit populist and a final conclusion that banks should avoid multiyearMon, 28 Sep 2009 11:00:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-09-21.htmlInvestors looking at the markets in the last couple of weeks could have had asked themselves: Could it be any better? The last week was. The trademark of all the good surprises was the Bernanke’s speech last Tuesday. Bernanke was one of many speakers in the first anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but among many general remarks investors grasped only this one: the US recession very likely has ended. Now, this is a very strong declaration, unthinkable just couple of months ago. ItMon, 21 Sep 2009 11:00:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-09-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-08-24.htmlDespite the pessimistic start, the last week was very good for holders of long position in stocks and stock indices. The major US stock indices reached new highs of this year on strong US macroeconomic data (regional economic activities and used home sales) as well as exceptionally good initial activity readings (PMIs) from the eurozone. However, it is more than just the new maximum. First, the last week started with a serious correction attempt. Not by chance – 1016 pts. on contracts for theMon, 24 Aug 2009 13:36:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-08-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-08-17.htmlThe US data reported last week were mixed at best. The retail sales fell in monthly terms, confidence measured by the University of Michigan index slipped for the second month in a row, claims moved a notch higher and only the output data were slightly better than expected. While this caused some retracement attempts on well overbought Wall Street investors were far from panicked. Even the short term support lines on the S&P500 remained unchanged. The Japanese were less resilient,Mon, 17 Aug 2009 13:52:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-08-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-08-11.htmlLast week the US president suggested that the worst was over when it comes to the recession in the economy. You can discuss with the president, you can discuss with the Noble prize winner Paul Krugman who said over the weekend that the US economy may be just on the brink of the recovery, but you can’t discuss with the data. And those are increasingly optimistic. Aside from the services activity in the US all the major releases last week were indeed very strong. The ISM has recorded the 7thTue, 11 Aug 2009 11:04:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-08-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-08-03.htmlAnother week started on a bullish tone, sending the futures on the S&P500 near 1000 points, EURUSD to medium term resistances and GBPUSD highest since early October 2008. Could it be different after an optimistic comment from Alan Greenspan who said during the weekend that the annualized growth rate in the third quarter in the US may not only be positive but as high as 2,5%. Yet the deciding factor for this week is not Greenspan but the US data for July. The first on the table is the dataMon, 03 Aug 2009 13:50:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-08-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-06-29.htmlEven though Americans are enjoying a shorter week topped with a banking holiday on Friday, it will take some intensive trading for them (and the rest of the World along) beforehand. As the end of June meets the first three days of July, investors need to digest early indicators from all the major economies and June’s payrolls in the US, served on the very moment of Jean Claude Trichet’s speech after the ECB decides on rates on Thursday. While all those data make traders more ferocious everyMon, 29 Jun 2009 12:41:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-06-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-06-15.htmlIt is gradually becoming a tradition that finishes of cash sessions on the US stock markets bring about major market moves, often contradicting trends observed within preceding trade. That was the case on Friday’s evening, but one upbeat finish doesn’t alter the whole market picture. And this looks more and more troublesome for the bulls. Last week showed a lack of decisiveness among investors. A stronger-than-expected US retail sales report was not enough to push markets to new highs. As aMon, 15 Jun 2009 12:02:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-06-01.htmlThe first couple of days in any given month are usually very intensive when it comes to scheduled market events like data releases and central banks meetings. The first week of June is no different. The data on activity and US labor market are competing for investors’ attention. Measures of activity in business have already shown a steady and even somewhat surprising positive development indicating some macroeconomic stabilization at first, but also giving hopes of recovery recently. The firstMon, 01 Jun 2009 16:20:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-06-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-05-29.htmlThe previous week was very interesting from the technical point of view. At the beginning we could observe the strengthening of the US currency which brought the EUR/USD to the support level of 1,3790. This was a good moment for buyers and the market started to recover very quickly with the uptrend coming back dynamically. This situation was supported by market data. Very important data from Germany was published on Monday – IFO index - and was better than last month’s reading but worse thanFri, 29 May 2009 16:23:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-05-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-05-25.htmlNorth Koreans do not allow the Western society to forget about themselves. Their representatives delivered yet another trick – reportedly successful nuclear tests (confirmed by the US geological services). The impact of these revelations has been mostly felt, understandably, on South Korean markets. Won has given up so of recent impressive gains (ca. 20% to the dollar), and the stock market retreated by more than 2%. The influence has been felt also by the USDJPY, retreating from 93,85 (closeMon, 25 May 2009 12:15:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-05-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-05-05.htmlMay started from another bunch of positive data after two bullish months on stock markets and to a significant extent on industrial commodities and emerging currencies. Friday’s ISM industrial activity and consumer sentiment in the US were far above expectations and delivered yet another increases, arming bulls with improving macroeconomic background. This happened on top of recently improved technical picture with S&P500 breaching trough a resistance at 875-880 (albeit not veryTue, 05 May 2009 10:41:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-05-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-04-20.htmlFriday’s session on Wall Street ended with a (failed so far) test of what is a potential breaking point for the one and half month rally on stock markets, emerging currency markets and selected commodities (especially industrial metals). The S&P500 climbed to 874,6 points, close to local peaks from late January and early February. This also means that the correction which started on 6th March just matched a similar move dated on 21st November – 6th January, which means a nearly identicalMon, 20 Apr 2009 09:22:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-04-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-04-06.htmlMarkets neglected last week’s dramatic employment reports and continue a rally amid encouraging comments from Fed’s Bernanke who summed up last week with a speech. Bernanke presented optimistic view of Fed’s programs supposedly working (so far) and hoped for economic recovery settling down at the end of this year. Good performance of stocks is continuously spreading to other instruments as well. Industrial metals have been bullish for the last couple of weeks with copper hitting new highs andMon, 06 Apr 2009 14:58:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-04-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-03-30.htmlLast week investors were surprised by some better macroeconomic data from the US economy. The data had shown higher sales of homes (both used and new) and a rise in durable orders and further improved market sentiment. More of surprises would be desired this week if the sentiment is about to drive markets higher as a correction signaled on Friday has accelerated. Market started on a defensive note already in Asia after Geithner’s remarks of “still significant help needed in a banking sector”.Mon, 30 Mar 2009 12:12:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-03-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-03-16.htmlThis week started from a continuation of good moods initiated by the CEO of Citigroup last week. Not long after opening in Europe we saw a decisive break through a resistance of 1,30 on the EURUSD, and a sharp appreciation of the British pound to the dollar as well. These moves rely to a significant extent on a bullish sentiment on stock markets and investors do hope that central banks gatherings in two major advanced economies on Wednesday will translate into an influx of more optimism. BothMon, 16 Mar 2009 13:02:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-03-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-03-09.htmlIn comparison to the first week of March, the next few days look calm. Among crucial data for the market one can list only the US retail sales for February on Thursday (expected to drop by 0,5% MoM, after somewhat surprising rise in January) and perhaps the US trade balance for January released on Friday. On top of that we have industrial orders and output in Germany (Wednesday and Thursday respectively) and sentiment UM index in the US (Friday). Less data doesn’t mean less concerns forMon, 09 Mar 2009 11:39:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-03-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-03-02.htmlLast month’s activity indicators, notably ISMs in the US, brought some ray of hope to investors that perhaps the recession had it’s bottom at the turn of the year. The data later in the month (like industrial output and durable orders) did not confirm these positive signs. Nevertheless, the ISM remains a powerful indicator and investors will pay attention to the readings, for it’s the most credible direction pointer among early indicators. The hopes are not elevated – investors expect the ISMMon, 02 Mar 2009 14:18:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-03-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-02-09.htmlLast week brought about a pool of mixed data. At first investors were comforted with better ISM data in both industry and services which along with some indicators of bottoming out in a residential sector helped improving sentiment and contributed to a rebound on major stock markets. The good mood wasn’t distorted by another nightmarish payrolls, as investors awaited presidential plans to be approved in the Congress. This is going to be a major event this week. First, crucial votes areMon, 09 Feb 2009 11:07:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-02-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-01-19.htmlThe US economic data for December has been dire so far. Both retail sales and industrial output slumping by more than 2% from November, which has been already bad, unemployment hitting new highs and indicators like ISM pointing to no relief any time soon. The summary of the last year will come at the end of this month with the release of the fourth quarter GDP, expected to drop by at least 5% in annualised terms. But before this happens, markets are focused on another 4th quarter story –Mon, 19 Jan 2009 12:15:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2009-01-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2008-03-31.htmlThis week on the financial markets should be really interesting. As investors look for at least vague symptoms of an improvement in the US economy they will look at this week activity indicators. These start from today’s Chicago PMI and go through tomorrow’s industrial ISM to Thursday’s ISM services. Expectations are not sky-high, in all cases investors do expect readings below 50 mark, which indicates contraction (the consensus for the industrial ISM is 48 pts. and ISM services 49). SimilarMon, 31 Mar 2008 12:58:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/Robert.kosowski@xtb.pl (X-Trade Brokers, XTB)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-week-ahead/2008-03-31.html