Search
The Elliott Wave Commentary
0
0
Definitive Guide to Trading
Mon, Sep 15 2008, 08:47 GMT
by Joseph Russo
When it comes to strategically trading broad market equity indices profitably, there is simply no match for Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook. We respectfully challenge any short-term advisory or software generated algorithms to improve upon or better optimize the efficiency of tactical trading dynamics we dispatch daily for the Dow, S&P, or NDX.
Undeniable Bear Market in Full Swing
In the last days of August, following an impressive 1000-point 10% rally off the July low, the Dow was making every attempt to best its August-11 high of 11867.
Trade # 1 on the above chart illustrates our last bullish trade-trigger citing an 11785 upside target prior to the bear reasserting itself with a rapid 750-point decline. As extracted from our archives, the exit target for that trade was within 5-points of the 11790 print-high that registered on September 2.
In the nine months following the all-time historic print high of 14198 in October of 2007, the Dow has done nothing but languish, providing explosive choppy rallies while recording a steady stream lower-lows and lower-highs with its larger footprints.
As is typical with most equity bears, declines are swift in nature, followed by smaller fractal bursts of higher-highs, and higher-lows. This type of price action tends to lure in buyers, promote the appearance of orderly declines, and sets forth the seductive promise of an eventual long-term bottom.
A snapshot of Long-Term Secular Trends
Below, we take a long-term secular look at four of the most essential sectors in the financial sphere. In general-order of importance, they are sovereign nations’:
- Currency Strength and/or the quality/quantity of money supply
- Commodity Prices (In this case, represented by Gold)
- Long-Term Interest Rates, or the cost of funds
- And finally broad based Equities or Stock Indices (represented below by the S&P 500)
Overall, secular trends although (potentially disastrous in the case of the US dollar) nominally impressive, do not paint a long-term picture of confidence or stability. Considering the prospects no choice remains but to trade these markets as efficiently as humanly possible.
Human Efficiency
The six trades in our first lead-chart above, chronologically orders, a 16-day summary of phenomenal outcomes to short-term strategy-specific trade guidance extracted from the archives of our Near Term Outlook and accompanying Evening Posts.
Our lead chart simply summarizes “when and where” those trades elected, however the NTO charts along with the members-only “essentials file” lays out the strategy and tactics behind the “how and why” those trades elected.
Over the past three years, we have perfected the art of dispatching tactical trade set-ups and market forecasting into a consistent, impartial, and immensely profitable endeavor for those who take the required time, patience, and discipline to embrace it.
The express focus of Elliott Wave Technology’s charting and forecasting service is to help traders anticipate price direction and amplitude of broad market indices over the short, intermediate, and long-term.
We deliver this unique blend of proprietary charting protocol daily, with the express intent to convey timely and profitable information. Our daily reports impart strategy-specific guidance, which strives to forecast, monitor, and calibrate market impact relative to a multitude of signals that are in direct alignment with eight distinct trading strategies set forth in the members NTO essentials file.
Regardless of one’s level of experience, users must allow sufficient time to become acquainted with the authors charting protocol, strategies, and tactical narratives prior to entering positions or developing modified discretionary trading strategies of their own.
If you trade in today’s increasingly uncertain and volatile markets, you need a reliable and consistent edge you can count on day in and day out. If you want the very best, there is no better short-term advisory than the Near Term Outlook.
Published on Mon, Sep 15 2008, 08:47 GMT
0
0
Strategic Command and Control
Mon, Jun 2 2008, 07:24 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Traders Quandary in Finding a Consistent and Accurate Edge:
When considering the implied benefits of obtaining exclusive-access to a self-proclaimed, highly accurate charting service, (of which we are one) how is one to make heads or tails in turning the professed profit-packed price-charts into an actionable trading plan?
Although we receive tons of regular praise for our exemplary charting and forecasting acumen, a small but relevant percentage of users share that despite such excellence, they could not come up with an effective strategy to take advantage of our incredibly accurate price-chart landscapes.
We suspect the primary reason for such feedback is that this group of participants does not instinctively know how to apply the explicit mapping information displayed on each of our price charts. The missing ingredient for this contingent of traders is the challenge of conceptualizing and implementing tactical strategies that will align with one or more of our charts noted prospects.
As in the marketplace, and adding to this challenge, our charts point out all of the natural conflict inherent among the various strategies actively engaged in open trade. One strategy may be actively seeking to bullishly scalp 10-lots-long a defined trade-trigger targeting 10-S&P points in the next several HOURS, while another will be concurrently flat the same, and bearishly preparing to execute a counterintuitive swing trade strategy, which seeks to capture anywhere from 20-50-S&P points over the next several DAYS.
Once one grasps the logic, simplicity, and power of our charting protocol, they will find that our blended-approach to charting future price-movement is very trader-friendly, strategy specific, and designed to serve without bias, a wide variety of proven trading disciplines across all time horizons.
Case in Point:
For example, back on Friday 16-May, counter-trend swing-trade strategies were on alert to deploy specific criteria in electing short positions against a forever-rising S&P since the March lows. At the same time, very short-term momentum traders employing a directional trade-trigger strategy, had the boundary lines and projected point-values to speculate on aggressive long positions from 1425 seeking a quick 10-pts of upside profits.
Below, we illustrate the immediate outcome to both strategies in the following sessions chart on 19-May, which shows our short-term bullish momentum trader quite pleased with his or her pre-planned 10-pts of profit. In addition, we quantified confirmation of short-entry for the bearish counter-trend swing- trade strategy, in which sell-probes elected at 1429. Surely, one with a great deal of experience and versatility could have made both of these trades however, it is likely that most simply focused and aligned their orders with one specific strategy or the other. One bullish, one bearish, and both successful, containing all of the essential information to execute plans well in advance, and all on the same price chart.
We also wish to direct your attention to the array of downside price-targets, and point-values already present on Monday’s chart. Furthermore, we had also postulated that a small degree –c- wave decline was in progress, and provided a downside price projection-window for its terminal designated as wave “a” at one larger degree. Granted, though we have cleaned up the archived original to place special focus upon these two specific examples, the uncut chart displayed the all-of the precise information highlighted below.
Published on Mon, Jun 2 2008, 07:24 GMT
0
0
Playing the NDX like a fiddle
Mon, May 26 2008, 10:48 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Before we illustrate our total command over the NDX of late, we wish to provide you with a brief update to our previous week’s assessment of the Dow Transportation Average.
In brief, the update of the hourly Transportation average below exemplifies precisely how dynamic Elliott Wave architecture adjusts in accordance with real-time price action.
The hourly chart from a week ago noted prospects for an ending pattern to chop the Transports higher amid a suggested slowing in the rate of advance.
However, the fever-pitch reversal-high last Monday, and the pursuant downside carnage breaching the 5250 level by weeks-end - violated conformity to that ending pattern, forcing immediate adjustments to the unfolding wave count, and setting the stage for monitoring critical support above the 4800 mark.
All told, the wave structures (and alternate 3-wave peak) outlined below, reflect our latest assessment of the advance off the January lows.
Published on Mon, May 26 2008, 10:48 GMT
0
0
Transports hitting all−time highs
Mon, May 19 2008, 10:17 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Before we begin our look at the roaring Transportation average, we would like to return your attention to our previous week’s article entitled “Spring-Break”. Last week’s piece did a fine job of calling a precise short–term tradable low in the Dow.
Below we re-present the chart from last week’s article.
Within that article, previous guidance suggested, “For select traders, proprietary criteria also provided another exit or potentially early reversal signal near the close at 12734.” The follow-up chart illustrates how the reversal signal turned out to be a rather precise one, and by no means early.
Published on Mon, May 19 2008, 10:17 GMT
0
0
Spring break−down
Mon, May 12 2008, 10:47 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Financial Sphere & Fed Gone Wild / cost, well over $500 Trillion in notional derivatives
With no apparent end in sight to their omnipotent magical power, as you watched our fascist-like fed usurp ever-more control over the financial sphere, were you impressed enough to trade-long shortly following their lead in contriving the spasmodically incessant rally from the March lows?
- We were.
With stammering Hank and Uncle Ben’s “all-in” guarantees to cover your long-butts, did you buy completely into a la-la land bullish frenzy that would launch equity prices straight up the their old highs?
No? Didn’t think so, - we didn’t either, and that’s a good thing.
Knowing when to hold ‘em or fold ‘em / cost, $Tens of Thousands in learning-curve dues
Although we positioned long for good chunks of the run, by no means did we buy into it completely. Going forward, there are a few things to keep in mind however. One, is that; it ain’t over till’ it’s over. Secondly, we did not get this far without some battle scars along the way. Finally, one should never expect perfection in this type of endeavor. Furthermore, taking pre-determined losses are very much a part of an overall long-term winning strategy.
What Next / cost, risking jail-time for blackmailing members of the working group
For now, the jury remains out on this unprecedented intervention. We will be working intently over the summer to assess the markets deliberation towards verdict on the durability of the feds deplorable self-rescue efforts.
Our next tasks are to monitor for a renewed summer rally following this recent spring breakdown, and to observe signs for a resumption of bear market declines amid a potentially serious affliction of the summertime blues. It should not be too long before we get handle on which direction these coming headwinds are most likely to blow.
Markets Waiting to Exhale / cost, $60 Billion straight away give or take
For many, we assume it appeared that the fed-led intervention rally would just keep on going like the energizer bunny. We suspect many were certain that the rally would eventually fizzle out, but did not know when, or where to position orders to protect long side trading profits, or reverse short to capture the inevitable pullback.
If you were in either camp, you shouldn’t feel too bad. The rally off the March low was rather complex, elegantly seductive, and difficult to interpret by design. Whatever you do, don’t get mad – simply get even.
After imposing an authoritarian 50% retracement on the dime of taxpayers, the dynamic duo and their global “working group” apparently achieved some level of comfort in easing off the national emergency, bullish-bid-offensive essential to preserving their sacred monopolies.
Fear not bulls, fascist backstop subsidies will return with statist intervention whenever necessary, and at any cost. That you can count on - in the meantime...
Nailing a Near-Term Complacent High / cost, just $75.00
Realizing our divine masters had achieved an appropriately safe level of lift following 8-weeks of unprecedented intervention in the supposed free market, we were fully prepared for this week’s rather tricky and sudden decline.
Patiently tracking the fascist-like propping-up of equity markets from the March lows, our proprietary timing, sentiment, and momentum models began sounding a confluence of alarms upon the Dow’s strike-high of 13132 on May 2.
On Friday May 2, our Near Term Outlook signaled a key-pivot counter-trend short position in the Dow against the 13132 high. Proprietary standing criteria elected short positions at 13047, just 85-pts from the top tick.
One week later on Friday May 9, standing proprietary interim-pivot criteria alerted select traders to exit shorts at 12734 near the close, booking over 300-pts profit. (Or $3,000 dollars in profit for each full-size futures contract traded)
Many Caught with their Shorts-Off following Tuesday’s recovery / cost, $3,000.00
If you were certain another high was sure to follow coming off Tuesday’s impulsive recovery rally from the 12863 low, it is likely that you were not alone in such reasonable assumption.
If you lifted shorts, or got caught off-guard after Tuesday’s five-wave impulse rally, which then followed such bullish price-action with an unusually rare sell-off, we suspect you had an abundance of good company.
We presume that this was the precise intent of the prevailing price-action. We consider this type of price-action the rather fine art of “working group” chart painting-101.
However, if you were privy to viewing our real-time interpretation of the price action at hand, you would have acquired an alternate perception as to what was really going on in the familiar trading arena of cunning and deceit.
What, you ask?
How can a five-wave advance be corrective! How is it that a five-wave impulse is supposed to be able to crest a corrective ‘b’ wave terminal? How can this be a proper Elliott Wave count?
We will show you how.
The chart below provides clear illustration of fully conforming tenets of Elliott Wave structures. Do feel free to email us in sharing any opposing views.
Hearing Mayday, Mayday / cost, a mere $75.00
As if the market is not difficult enough to forecast and trade, the shenanigans of working group antics can make it even more deceptive.
Tuesday was one of those days where statists executed chart painting-101 flawlessly. They may have fooled the many, but they did not fool the few, at least not the few who subscribe to our service.
Yes, a five-wave advance can be corrective, and yes, five-waves up can terminate a “b” wave at one larger degree.
The chart below meticulously illustrates the culmination to our dynamic interpretation of wave structures from the get-go print-high of 13132.30 on Friday 2-May.
Published on Mon, May 12 2008, 10:47 GMT
0
0
Facts are Stubborn Things − Part III
Mon, Apr 21 2008, 09:14 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Part III - Trading amid travesty
Nothing new under the sun comes to mind when pondering whether financial markets are truly free. Beyond all related conjecture, it remains a stubborn fact that markets have always behaved in a way to perplex the majority of participants.
Adding to the complexity of this rather standard fare, are recent revelations that have clearly come to bare. Namely, an epic derivatives implosion, which candidly reveals that much of the financial sphere floats upon nothing more than the hollow intrigue of innovative means by which the elite plunder inordinate profits from the well baited and unsuspecting. This too, is nothing new, but rather a predictable recurrence of such grand consequence that it becomes impractical to veil in any other light.
Apart from the known risks, the historical travesty of stratagem deeply rooted in the financial markets will likely surge prior to coming full circle in lasting dissolution. Despite this, investors must continue to invest and traders shall continue to trade.
Nearing a Precipice or more Mountains yet to contrive
Wall Street’s rather mature and surreptitious takeover of the real economy in concert with the bursting of an irresolvable daisy chain of derivatives has imposed a virulent mistrust throughout the financial sphere. Institutions, traders, and investors are now more uncertain than ever as to the durability of dependence upon financial innovation to grow the economy safely or efficiently over time. This leads one to ponder just how many contrived hills may lay ahead in reserve for mounting additional campaigns of familiar pillage.
Given the added fact that most all investment and speculation appears to be rooted upon a fictitious model of finance, what beyond empty pandering in the deceptive management of manufactured expectations might one assume reliable and trustworthy? At this stage, we suspect it is quite clear that all of the spin, reassurances, and cheerleading amounts to nothing more than a contemptible charade.
We have long ago resolved to cast aside trust in all such vacant assurances, alongside any illusory lowering of expectation benchmarks. “May the buyer beware”, stand as an ever-present axiom in guiding every facet of one’s endeavors in the financial arena.
Now more than ever, reliance upon sound technical analysis cuts through the clamor of swelling paradox, and provides nimble clarity as to what markets are presently telegraphing, inclusive of their extending state of contrived ambiguity or resurgence.
TA provides a Unique Visual Study of History
Viewed through the prism of financial markets, technical analysis (TA) is an effectual study of world history and current events. To understand what is happening in the present, it is first essential to comprehend what has transpired in the past. To this end, there is no better model from which to capture the financial specter of world events than through the masterful framework of demarcation resident in Elliott Wave Theory.
Often, many dismiss the theory the instant a specific outcome of desire fails to manifest in textbook fashion. As with all chart analysis, Elliott Wave Theory is in part science, and a method of artistry. Like history, it is subjective, and as a result, most anyone who can count to five and recall the alphabet is bound to misinterpret the whole of its utility, tenets, and nuance.
How we Preserve Capital (long-term benefits)
We have extracted the S&P 500 chart below from our Interim Monthly Forecast archive. The commentary beneath the chart, dispatched back on September 12, 2007, exemplifies the foresight and benefit that skillful dissemination of technical data bestows upon those with privy to such insights.
Of notable interest, boxed in yellow, is a previously forecast upside price-objective defining an anticipated range of achievement between 1569 and 1726. One month later, in October of 2007, the index would go on to register an all-time intraday high at 1576.09, ten points beyond threshold of the target window identified.
A second point of notable interest resides in the lower RSI panel. Two months prior, upon print of the July 1555.90 high, we recalled attention to July’s dispatch, reminding readers of the early-warning defensive posture suggesting pro-active long-term investors to consider taking 1/3rd high-level profits for the purpose of reducing long side exposure to a maturing market cycle.
The following month’s report, dispatched October 2007, issued a second defensive warning against the 1576.09 all time high. In October, we again suggested pro-active investors take a 2nd round of high-level profits in further reducing long side exposure to just 1/3 their original size.
By March of 2008, five months after registering an all time high, the S&P plummeted over 20%, near the deepest chart-noted .382-retracement level, shedding 319.11 points prior to printing a minor low at 1256.98. After trimming nearly 38% off the entire advance from the 2002 bear-market low, the market has since become largely ambiguous following unprecedented intervention by the statist Federal Reserve and associated banking cartels.
How we Identify Speculative Profits (short-term benefits) In a broad philosophical sense, it matters greatly to us that the markets trade freely. However, if markets are indeed contrived, it matters not by whom, or what forces may control such travesty, but rather we possess a dependable means by which to identify profits amid either circumstance.
We have taken the intraday S&P 500 chart below, directly from our most recent Near Term Outlook publication.
The text supplied beneath the chart is NOT that posted with Friday’s Evening Post dispatch, but rather from preceding commentaries provided earlier in the week.
We publish the NTO twice per week along with three supplementary Evening Post Reports, which provides our readership with five days per week of seamless coverage of the major equity indices.
End of Week Surge
To be perfectly candid, we had anticipated neither the speed nor amplitude achieved in Friday’s rally.
We had in place however, the noted buy-trigger capturing 34-pts in profit upon trading past its1390 target, along with recently elected counter-trend entries, which opened long positions on Wednesday from the 1327 level.
Flush with abundance in short-term profits by weeks-end, and despite odds of further highs in the days ahead, we are now suggesting a more defensive posture for our short-term clients.
Origin of Elliott Wave Theory
In the late 1920's, Ralph Nelson Elliott, an astute, well respected, highly sought after businessman, developed what is today widely accepted as the broadest, most comprehensive, and compelling theories in the behavioral, and mathematical study of financial markets.
Through his hidden genius, and keen observation, Elliott labored incessantly in a quest to quantify that price fluctuations in the broad stock market, (previously accepted to behave in chaotic or random fashion) exhibited a hidden, consistent, and predictable order. He aptly described such repetitive price fluctuations as "waves”.
He concluded that a fractal order, or repetitive cycle, expressed a broad reflection of investors’ collective, varied, and vacillating emotions. The sequential price patterns he identified, particularly those, which mark terminals at Cycle Degree and higher, are in effect, historical footprints, revealing precisely what stage of dynamic advance, or pause, that markets have recorded throughout the entire course of financial history.
Through his tenacious effort in the identification of sequential patterns at (9) varying degrees of trend, along with an organizational set of tenets, and guidelines, ultimately leading to a thorough cataloging of his findings, Ralph Nelson Elliott achieved the seemingly impossible. Not only did he succeed in quantifying that markets do indeed trade in repetitive cycles, but he left behind numerous journals of his extraordinary achievements as a precious gift for future generations.
The Treasured Gift
For this gift of uncommon knowledge, we must impart full tribute to the efforts of Robert Prechter, and A.J Frost, who in 1978, collaboratively assembled and co-authored interpretation of Mr. Elliott’s work in the first printing of the "Elliott Wave Principle" Key to Market Behavior.
Frost & Prechter’s translation of Elliott’s' Masterworks can be described as nothing short of a brilliant expose, replete with market gauging principles based on dynamic symmetry, rooted in mathematical law, and unbeknownst to Elliott at the time, in full confluence with every element of Fibonacci’s Summation Series at its core.
The fractal nature of Elliott’s' repetitive dynamic wave formations provides us with a richly textured and unique perspective as to the historical significance of all developed data series. The tenets convey to us with high probability, just how such history is most likely to have meaningful consequence on the present and future course of human endeavor.
Conclusion
In broader philosophical context, the historical study of capital markets through the lens of Elliott Wave is a most fascinating way in which to recognize, document, record, and most importantly to “anticipate" various stages of progress, downfall, and recovery across the whole of humankind.
The practical application of Elliott Wave Theory is unique in that no other method of technical analysis provokes deeper thought, retrospection, or fosters a rebirth of enlightenment imparted through the wisdom of ages. Nor does any other method of analysis provide comparable models for framing, monitoring, and formulating dynamic probability forecasts for current and future market conditions.
Published on Mon, Apr 21 2008, 09:14 GMT
0
0
Facts are Stubborn things part II − Central banks' in tatters
Mon, Apr 14 2008, 12:17 GMT
by Joseph Russo
The ALADDIN’S lamp of central banking coming FULL Circle
If one is inclined toward general agreement with the notion that the pinnacle of power in the world is the power to create money, - then one must hastily conclude that; the government-aligned private organizations of central banking cartels, whom fund all of the worlds imperial centers of power, – must then be held as the absolute mightiest of powers, whom preside at the highest seat of omnipotent influence over a vast array of interconnected relationships across the entire global landscape.
If one further accepts the premise that all power tends to corrupt, and that absolute power tends to corrupt with far greater certainty – one is then compelled to make the natural assumption that central banking cartels would inherently possess an inordinately high level of probability in harboring substantial tendency toward hatching steady streams of pervasive intrigue and corruption throughout their tenures.
Harmfully adding to their mystique, central banks often maintain a level of autonomy from the governments to which they contract or have been granted charter in the delivery of their product and service.
The most obvious product and service central banks peddle - are their exclusive charter agreements with select governments in securing that government’s official authorization to lend it money, and for acquisition of absolute monopoly franchise in the manufacture and management of the associated country’s legal tender system.
Astonishingly, in addition to the grant of such omnipotent monopoly franchise, governments have somehow been compelled to grant central banks broader powers to regularly meddle and tinker with the supplies of money they create, the amount of credit they make available to various entities, the freedom to adjust various terms and rates of interest, and the liberty to directly intervene in their financial markets at will, or upon any perceived necessity to do so.
To briefly digress with regard to the United States, it is somewhat bewildering when one pauses to consider why congress, whom by the legal authority of its constitution possesses the power to coin its own money and regulate its value, would find it compelling instead, to borrow money on the credit of its Nation, under willful contract with a separate entity, to which it is then obligated to pay back with interest.
Clearly, it is necessary for governments to establish a uniform medium of exchange for its citizenry, and also for the purpose of fairly and effectively trading their surpluses with other agreeable nations. Should for whatever reasons beyond our comprehension, governments find it necessary to borrow money at interest from a central bank vs. creating their own - free of usury, so be it. We entrust that such reasons may be of practical necessity, though we are not certain what those reasons might be.
However, it is inarguably NOT a necessity for governments to then grant central banks a much broader set of unchecked elaborate authorities, which embody the express supreme power to impose critical influence on either sovereign or global economic endeavors, or the express authority to execute direct covert interventions amid a sovereign nation’s supposedly free financial market.
In light of the culminating malaise in the credit, currency, and financial markets, we thought it may be illuminating to view the collective product of central banks through the prism of their respective fiat currencies in relation to the price of gold.
Published on Mon, Apr 14 2008, 12:17 GMT
0
0
Facts are Stubborn things part I
Mon, Apr 14 2008, 08:58 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Part I- Legislating Denial or Sweeping Change for Better or Worse
Part II- Central Bank Insolvency Crisis – winding down a 300-year Paradigm of Failure & Deceit
Part III– Market Update – TA in Full Command - Trading Profitably No Matter Who’s Controlling the Markets
Part I
Legislating Denial or Substance
It is quite true that modern society as we know it cannot exist without a sound financial system. However, it may be vehemently argued that a free-modern society cannot exist within a systemically corrupt financial system.
Front and center focus is currently being directed upon the public’s widespread involvement in the housing crisis - or more appropriately phrased; - the financial sphere’s mass corruption of real property valuations and subsequent issuance of flawed innovative investment products from which they plundered extraordinary profits.
How we address the whole cause and effect of this crisis will shape the course of the 21st Century We suspect with near certainty that end-game outcomes associated with electing to embrace and work-through worst case scenarios in the short-run shall produce results far more advantageous to our nation in the long-run vs. outcomes associated with a denial-based hope, for best-case scenarios unfolding without incident.
If only America were permitted, or had the backbone to stoically endure the pangs of a relatively short-lived adjustment period, it may then bring about the ideal conditions for enacting sweeping and “incorruptible” policy changes across the entire financial and political spectrums.
Instead, the status quo dictates that legislators will be incessantly lobbied to favor widespread bail-outs, attempts at engineering artificial floors in home-prices, and likely coerced in the process, toward allowing a total forfeiture of powers and oversight to the very institutions responsible for repeatedly failing their mandates and obligations.
No Pain All Gain for Big Power
We suspect the ruling mobs of tyrannical majority may once again be trotting lawmakers down the wrong path in playing their fear-based ultimatum card of total financial system collapse, against subscribing to their voluntary participation plan in usurping a more perfect and absolute power in getting a second crack at supplanting the real economy with another of their brilliantly contrived proprietary versions.
Astonishingly, now that they find themselves totally bankrupt after the first such experiment, what they now appear to be demanding as ransom for “smooth transition” is a bailout of their sacred monopolies to be financed with unrestricted access to public taxpayer funds so that they may legally dictate architecture to some hellish rendition of “virtual economy 2.0” to suit their insatiable and ongoing ambitions.
In a sense, we are deceptively being fear-mongered into supporting exponential growth of widespread corruption and theft of national treasure or else face the unthinkable risk that everything we’ve come to rely upon will fall apart in ruin. Such flawed strategies promise to reach long-term goals by yielding full spectrum power to the masters of the financial universe who are wholly responsible for the present set of conditions.
Lawmakers are either complicit, or falsely led to believe that it is only this faction of money-masters, that possess the wherewithal and integrity to spare the masses of any undue pain or hardship beyond that which has already been imposed.
Crisis = Opportunity (for whom)
If we have not already crossed the Rubicon, a continuance toward yielding to the corruptive lure of an easy-way-out, is likely to become the surest road toward indentured servitude for the masses, and insure the complete and utter ruination of the United States as a viable nation.
This may well be America’s very last crisis of mega-opportunity to set things straight –once and for all.
Failure to do so now, is likely to have consequences beyond comprehension for generations to come. Now is NOT the time to fear doing more harm by disturbing the culprit of status quo – but rather the time for a clarion call for bold and decisive leadership to take firm hold of the reigns, and bring an end to this fractious culture of madness.
Think for a moment, what might be better or worse for a nation:
To be led by …
An administration hell-bent and unwavering against all public opinion - to bring fiscal prudence, incorruptible integrity, and constitutionality back into the core of its nations culture
An administration hell-bent and unwavering against all public opinion - to wage an endless war on terror, and bankrupt its nation to ruins
If we are to foolishly acquiesce in lowering ourselves to becoming a nation ruled by a single “decider,” we suspect that at the very worst, every rational majority would prefer the former in lieu of the ladder. Until all those engaged and affected yank their heads out of the quicksand of denial, and accept the rather stubborn fact that for all intent and purpose, the system to which they are vested and aligned is WHOLLY BANKRUPT in every regard so far as the eye can see – nothing of lasting value will ever be achieved.
All of the pending legislation and grandstanding, if not prudently drafted and equitably enforced, will amount to nothing more than an escalation of the already enormous unfunded liabilities pending, and swell them to a level beyond any notional comprehension.
Published on Mon, Apr 14 2008, 08:58 GMT
0
0
Cause and Effect
Tue, Apr 1 2008, 09:27 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Rarely do circumstances prevail whereby one is compelled to cast aside a natural self-interest in promoting one’s trade, to instead share opinion and perspective on a more broad set of shared observations, beliefs, and convictions, intent upon bringing about vigorous constructive public discourse in serving a purpose much larger than oneself.
Now is such a time, and the following is respectfully our patriotic and dutiful contribution in fostering such endeavors. We yield as much time as we may consume, and reserve the balance of our time remaining.
We get what we vote, hold to account for, and demand from our public servants/stewards
Until such time as, We The People, demand a brutally honest discourse in revealing the most essential underlying root causes of common denomination for all that continually plagues our economy, Republic, and world at large, we should not expect anything less than a hyper-steroidal-dose of the same-old redundant indiscretions of inequity, and blatant structural policy flaws that perpetually blind and propel largely hoodwinked, multi-generational populaces into the historically repetitive and dire economic malaise in which the present generation suddenly find itself today.
The sooner we expediently embrace swallowing the bitter pill of acceptance, and move toward a collectively informed, patriotic sacrifice in facing perhaps the most challenging, lengthy, and uncertain period of atonement in our nation’s history, the sooner we shall begin to reap the everlasting rewards of such noble endeavor.
Means to an End
Through the means of integrity, sacrifice, and self-determination, each of us individually possesses the inherent personal constitution and fortitude by which to attain the admirable end in cooperatively assuring a sustainable, secure, and equitably prosperous future for ourselves, our neighbors, and collective future generations both at home and abroad.
ONE ROOT-CAUSE clearly exposed upon blatantly Crossing-the-Line in the plain light of day
When a central authority will go to any length to prove to themselves, to all of the world, and those with whom they ally, that they possess, or have the means by which to acquire unlimited resources, power, and capability to control, shape, and direct all facets of wealth, commerce, and trade - both private and public – it should sound a piercing siren of alarm for citizenry of all free nations to immediately become fully engaged, and to begin demanding answers and accountability toward a rather serious and comprehensive line of inquiry as to the nature, and expansive purpose and consequence to such a dynamic evolution toward an infinite concentration of unlimited powers.
Published on Tue, Apr 1 2008, 09:27 GMT
0
0
Epic Paradigm shift looms
Mon, Mar 3 2008, 13:11 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Adaptive Trading and Investment Perspectives
Since we first began offering our market forecasting and analysis services to the public some two years ago, Elliott Wave Technology has been strident in directing our clients focus and attention to the negative wealth effects that eroding fiat-currency’s impose - along with the plausibility of epic consequence, if and when an inevitable paradigm shift against the acceptance of fiat-money were to ever reach critical mass. No matter where we are in a given investment cycle, we must first recognize the inherent nature of that environment, and then adapt our various investment postures with fitting perspective.
Say, you wanna revolution – well, ya know
In our view, as a result of their near-100-year monopoly, and flawed mandate to create public perception of never-ending (un)sustainable growth with price (in)stability, monetary authorities find themselves compelled in administering to an additional and rather absurd mandate - one which must avert an otherwise inevitable and catastrophic credit-deflation of their own making – and they must do so, at any and all cost. Our highly esteemed monetary authorities, boxed in a systemic paradox of their own design, appear to have no choice but to take their alchemy up a notch, and begin to fertilize seeds of hyperinflation in order to save face, and assure that their obligatory mandate will be fulfilled as agreed.
To their credit or shame - depending on one’s perspective, they have successfully staved off this permanently imminent and exponentially growing deflation for more than 30-years running. The monster in which they’ve been so accustomed to taming – has apparently taken on such gargantuan proportion that it is now becoming acutely unmanageable. The seeds of hyperinflation are slowly taking root, and may soon begin to expose themselves to the populace, and spread unabated. Unless our monetary and political stewards begin taking immediate steps toward fostering the adoption of a sustainable, pro-active, fiscally sound and transparent set of practical transitional protocols to construct a NEW sustainable system of money and credit – the current generation will no doubt, be bearing witness in their lifetimes, to an epic paradigm shift reaching critical mass – resulting in a 21st Century revolution to abolish and supplant the present fiat-currency system of money and credit.
Good, but not good enough
Although a new incoming administration with fresh momentum for promised-change may be considered a very good start, such positive intentions alone - unless radical and swiftly acted upon - will not be enough to get the job done in time. It also may be such that there is simply no practical timely solution other than making the necessary preparations to maintain civil order, the rule of law, and containing the masses as crisis after crises pounds the nation toward eventual revolt.
Ain’t no stoppin’us now – we’re on the move
It is our further opinion that this flawed system of fiat-money and credit-creation has long outlived its practical utility, and stands out quite clearly as the NUMBER ONE - singular systemic cause of all systems deemed to be broken, dysfunctional, grid-locked, intractable, or in some stage of pending breakdown or looming collapse. If left inadequately addressed, or simply left to 20th century business-as-usual inflationary tactics - such denials, misguided actions, and lack of visionary leadership will ultimately threaten to impose an acute and prolonged disruption to the well-being of civilizations across the globe for decades to come.
Dual Voice / Singular Focus
Before we continue, we wish to point out that we communicate with two distinct voices on occasion. Our public voice, exemplified by expression of opinion and philosophical query, is often limited to articles such as this one. In stark contrast, our second voice is purely analytical, and all-business. Market based communications within our publications are strictly limited to adherence, and utmost respect for impartial technical assessments as to the state and progress of a wide array of broad market indices. We consider this to be our more disciplined, essential, and relevantly applicable voice. A voice that is steadfast, prepared, anticipatory, on-the-money, and always on-guard.
Takin’ what they’re givin’ cause we’re workin’ for a livin’
Despite its current state of pending jeopardy, and though flawed as it may be, each of us by default - must participate and adapt to the current financial systems construct, limitations, and constraints. It is all that we have to work with. One of the cornerstones to our long-term investment guidance has emphasized the general rule of thumb in guiding each of our clients to take steps to assure that their accumulated wealth is protected against the ravages of inflation by means of acquiring a constant and adequate percentage of their total net worth in physical Gold and Silver bullion – under any all market conditions. The bulk of such acquisitions were made when gold was at or below $400 – it now appears destined to strike $1000 and beyond. Such guidance from two-years ago was definitely worth its Gold-weight, and most certainly worth the price of admission!
Published on Mon, Mar 3 2008, 13:11 GMT
0
0
Epic PARADIGM shift looms
Mon, Feb 4 2008, 14:56 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Adaptive Trading and Investment Perspectives Since we first began offering our market forecasting and analysis services to the public some two years ago, Elliott Wave Technology has been strident in directing our clients focus and attention to the negative wealth effects that eroding fiat-currency’s impose - along with the plausibility of epic consequence, if and when an inevitable paradigm shift against the acceptance of fiat-money were to ever reach critical mass. No matter where we are in a given investment cycle, we must first recognize the inherent nature of that environment, and then adapt our various investment postures with fitting perspective.
Good, but not good enough Although a new incoming administration with fresh momentum for promised-change may be considered a very good start, such positive intentions alone - unless radical and swiftly acted upon - will not be enough to get the job done in time. It also may be such that there is simply no practical timely solution other than making the necessary preparations to maintain civil order, the rule of law, and containing the masses as crisis after crises pounds the nation toward eventual revolt.
Ain’t no stoppin’us now – we’re on the move It is our further opinion that this flawed system of fiat-money and credit-creation has long outlived its practical utility, and stands out quite clearly as the NUMBER ONE - singular systemic cause of all systems deemed to be broken, dysfunctional, grid-locked, intractable, or in some stage of pending breakdown or looming collapse. If left inadequately addressed, or simply left to 20th century business-as-usual inflationary tactics - such denials, misguided actions, and lack of visionary leadership will ultimately threaten to impose an acute and prolonged disruption to the well-being of civilizations across the globe for decades to come.
Dual Voice / Singular Focus Before we continue, we wish to point out that we communicate with two distinct voices on occasion. Our public voice, exemplified by expression of opinion and philosophical query, is often limited to articles such as this one. In stark contrast, our second voice is purely analytical, and all-business. Market based communications within our publications are strictly limited to adherence, and utmost respect for impartial technical assessments as to the state and progress of a wide array of broad market indices. We consider this to be our more disciplined, essential, and relevantly applicable voice. A voice that is steadfast, prepared, anticipatory, on-the-money, and always on-guard.
Takin’ what they’re givin’ cause we’re workin’ for a livin’ Despite its current state of pending jeopardy, and though flawed as it may be, each of us by default - must participate and adapt to the current financial systems construct, limitations, and constraints. It is all that we have to work with. One of the cornerstones to our long-term investment guidance has emphasized the general rule of thumb in guiding each of our clients to take steps to assure that their accumulated wealth is protected against the ravages of inflation by means of acquiring a constant and adequate percentage of their total net worth in physical Gold and Silver bullion – under any all market conditions. The bulk of such acquisitions were made when gold was at or below $400 – it now appears destined to strike $1000 and beyond. Such guidance from two-years ago was definitely worth its Gold-weight, and most certainly worth the price of admission!
Good, but not good enough Although a new incoming administration with fresh momentum for promised-change may be considered a very good start, such positive intentions alone - unless radical and swiftly acted upon - will not be enough to get the job done in time. It also may be such that there is simply no practical timely solution other than making the necessary preparations to maintain civil order, the rule of law, and containing the masses as crisis after crises pounds the nation toward eventual revolt.
Ain’t no stoppin’us now – we’re on the move It is our further opinion that this flawed system of fiat-money and credit-creation has long outlived its practical utility, and stands out quite clearly as the NUMBER ONE - singular systemic cause of all systems deemed to be broken, dysfunctional, grid-locked, intractable, or in some stage of pending breakdown or looming collapse. If left inadequately addressed, or simply left to 20th century business-as-usual inflationary tactics - such denials, misguided actions, and lack of visionary leadership will ultimately threaten to impose an acute and prolonged disruption to the well-being of civilizations across the globe for decades to come.
Dual Voice / Singular Focus Before we continue, we wish to point out that we communicate with two distinct voices on occasion. Our public voice, exemplified by expression of opinion and philosophical query, is often limited to articles such as this one. In stark contrast, our second voice is purely analytical, and all-business. Market based communications within our publications are strictly limited to adherence, and utmost respect for impartial technical assessments as to the state and progress of a wide array of broad market indices. We consider this to be our more disciplined, essential, and relevantly applicable voice. A voice that is steadfast, prepared, anticipatory, on-the-money, and always on-guard.
Takin’ what they’re givin’ cause we’re workin’ for a livin’ Despite its current state of pending jeopardy, and though flawed as it may be, each of us by default - must participate and adapt to the current financial systems construct, limitations, and constraints. It is all that we have to work with. One of the cornerstones to our long-term investment guidance has emphasized the general rule of thumb in guiding each of our clients to take steps to assure that their accumulated wealth is protected against the ravages of inflation by means of acquiring a constant and adequate percentage of their total net worth in physical Gold and Silver bullion – under any all market conditions. The bulk of such acquisitions were made when gold was at or below $400 – it now appears destined to strike $1000 and beyond. Such guidance from two-years ago was definitely worth its Gold-weight, and most certainly worth the price of admission!
Published on Mon, Feb 4 2008, 14:56 GMT
0
0
High−jinks, mayhem, house−cleaning, and a look across the pond
Mon, Feb 4 2008, 14:48 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Free-Market Dynamics vs. Statist Intervention
In this particular round (likely the start of the 15th), one may assume that at present, the round is even on points. Free Market Dynamics have scored in breaching some minor structural under-pinning’s of the artificially-engineered perennial Bull - and the Statists have scored in response - thus far placing a perceived “floor” against the free markets natural propensity to adequately cleanse abuse and excess.
House Cleaning
Most are familiar with, and fully grasp the notion that in order for a gaming enterprise to maintain profitability, the “House” must always have a profit advantage. This simple concept is no different for the various market exchanges. The “House” must be profitable and prevail in the facilitation of open exchange. If it fails in this endeavor - the House will inevitably collapse, thus rendering no venue for trade – game-over.
The periodic wild price swings, which are most blatantly observed post FOMC announcements, provide a most opportune time for exchanges to “clean-house” as it were. Participants of either bullish or bearish persuasion are pounded out of their speculative positions, and punished by way of sharp trading losses. As the “house” mops up profit, it concurrently achieves the task of shaking out the largest portion of short-term speculators of every stripe.
Long-Term Analysis / Short-Term Queues
Apart from the inherent propensity and survival-of-the-fittest need for regular house-cleaning, short-term queues not only remain an essential element to the frequent speculator – but in addition, play a useful role in the maintenance and hedging of longer-term positions.
Following this week’s short-term trading summary and weekly overview, we will provide a sample of our long-term analysis from across the pond. Elliott Wave Technology’s illustration of the German DAX shall provide example of how maintaining a handle on long-range perspectives can assist both traders and investors alike.
Short-Term Trading Environment: Week ending 1-Feb.
Highlighted by Wednesdays FOMC announcement and subsequent series of violent whipsaw reversals, last weeks trade was a futile but necessary exercise in strategic resolve - producing little if any productive short-term benefit.
Re-Capping last week’s trading points:
The week began with a classic “throw-under” from a typically bullish falling wedge pattern. Despite the tendency for a false “throw-under” effect, the un-biased mechanical nature of trading the price-action compelled us to sell the breach nonetheless. Profits on such efforts were short-lived, and ultimately stopped for a loss.
Just four 30-minute bars off Mondays weak open; we began hitting a succession of elected long positions, re-situating our short-term trading posture on the right side of the market. All of these long positions went on to achieving their upside price targets.
By Tuesday, equity markets were once again in “levitation-mode,” awaiting announcement of the highly anticipated rate-cut stimulus. Those with experience were likely cognizant of their “sitting-duck” status relative to the impending melee following the public FOMC announcement.
Though appropriate for traders to stand aside amid the mayhem generally associated with FED meetings, we intentionally “trade-through” such noise. In doing so, and despite the added risks, we purposefully maintain a constant mechanical disconnect from all such builds of pent-up emotion and second guessing.
Ignoring discretion, instincts, or individual judgments does not guarantee profits – in fact, nothing does. At times, such instincts will pay off handsomely, and at others – be proven totally wrong. In the end however, monitoring all price-action triggers and trade signals generated by our studies, allows us to record and reflect upon the practical utility and real-world results of steadily applying consistent disciplines throughout all market conditions – win, lose, or draw.
Shortly following Wednesday’s public intervention announcement, with high-jinks in full gear, equities spiked sharply higher, and then suddenly collapsed into the close. Thursday’s open was received with some downside follow-through, only to once again – reverse sharply higher - and remain in a generally sustained rising posture throughout the close of trade on Friday.
Amid a highly unstable, artificially supported price-action dynamic, we continue to engage markets with our usual resolve. Last week, such discipline produced a total of 9 short-term trades. Three profitable buy-side trades, five losses on the sell-side, and one aggressive long position that remains open.
Although clients are free to exercise individual discretion and instinct in selecting positions, it is our job to track proprietary strategy mechanically, based exclusively on the price-action, omitting all discretionary selection-bias surrounding pending news, pattern tendencies, or events.
On balance, January was an enormously profitable month; however we concluded its final week of trade virtually flat, with a net capture of just 12-points in the Dow.
Below is graphic summary of this week’s rather challenging trade-triggers identified via Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook .
The Broad market update (big-picture)
On a grand-scale, major equity indices (with the assistance of massive interventions) are trying to recover from key-minor support level breaches. They are fast approaching a time frame in which a swift and forceful recovery must be sustained in order to re-claim and salvage investor confidence for the long-haul.
A long-term look across the pond (germany’s dax)
The chart of the DAX below was taken from our Millennium Wave Quarterly report archives from December 2007.
Aside from a humorous reference made to the charts pattern resembling the logo from the film “V” for Vendetta, it keenly illustrates the complexities and pitfalls common to the ultimate resolution of best applying Elliott Wave labels to larger degree price structures.
One notable example of this is the rise of intermediate wave (b) in 1998, and the pursuant decline to Primary 4 the very same year. At the time, many had assumed the end of the bull market was assured at the (b) wave high – not so, as history shows.
It was not until the maniacal thrust to the 8136.16 high was answered with a 73% percent market wipe-out in 2003 that bulls were forced to raise the white flag and submit. No sooner than the ink could dry on the decree and terms of surrender – another massive bull market campaign was waged.
2008, Five Years Later…
As evidenced via the shaded price series plotting the Euro vs. Gold, which clearly illustrates the level of high-jinks required by the global banking cartels to engineer a rapid and sustained “V” like reflationary B-wave advance at primary degree – we now become witness to the potential of what may ultimately become known as the Great Double-Top.
Of more immediate utility, our observations on December 11, 2007 warned of an imminent 1100-pt decline dead ahead for the DAX. Furthermore, our analysis laid out a strategic downside area in which this pending decline was likely to base.
The 2nd chart that follows will show the immediate outcome of this forward looking analysis.
Should one have interest in subscribing to our long-term technical analysis and/or acquiring access to our proprietary short-term market landscapes, we invite you to visit our web-site or blog page for more information.
The Near Term Outlook covers the short-term Dow, S&P, and NDX five-days-per-week, and issues near-term updates for the Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and the HUI two times per week.
Although we cannot be certain that the DAX will recover to print additional historic highs over the intermediate-term, we do know that it remains plausible given the present set of conditions.
While Elliott Waves eventually work themselves out over the course of time, the same price-action methodology which governs our short-term trading, shall guide us through reconciling the wave counts as they unfold at the highest degrees of trend.
Should one have interest in subscribing to our long-term technical analysis and/or acquiring access to our proprietary short-term market landscapes, we invite you to visit our web-site or blog page for more information.
The Near Term Outlook covers the short-term Dow, S&P, and NDX five-days-per-week, and issues near-term updates for the Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and the HUI two times per week.
Published on Mon, Feb 4 2008, 14:48 GMT
0
0
High−jinks, mayhem, house−cleaning, and a look across the pond
Mon, Feb 4 2008, 13:34 GMT
by Joseph Russo
A Work in Progress
Well, it is blatantly obvious that the (PPT) plunge protection team, presidents working group – or whatever they call themselves - found it necessary to intervene in the free-market in attempt to orchestrate a bottom.
Where are these guys when markets are a boiling-pot of unsustainable parabolic animal spirit? We suspect during such episodes, they are patting themselves on the back for planting the seeds for such bullish orgies.
Massive Undertaking / Will it be Different this Time
Might the inordinately early rescue efforts (which began pre-Dow 14K, in August of ’07) be telling of the sheer size and scope that this particular bail-out requires?
This alone, may suggest that any short-term temporary political stimulus (even alongside the redundancy of emergency monetary policy interventions) may do little to mitigate what is quite plausibly a much longer-term systemic malady.
When does Change become Revolution
Given that both Democrats and Republicans are in general agreement (prompting both to mount strong campaign platforms of “change”) that a critical portion of our government is fundamentally broken, we wonder how each candidate would define accomplishing “true-change” without radical consequence? Perhaps this may be why (R) Ron Paul is being ignored like the plague by his opponents and mainstream media alike.
In our view, the century for tweaking status quo paradigms has past. The 21st century demands a bold new sustainable vision of truth, preservation, prosperity, and security. Anything less equates to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
We suspect change-denied, becomes revolution when a failing government’s inevitable last band-aid-fix and race-against-time falls terribly short - prompting masses of regional populations toward revolt, and general civil unrest as a result of acute and sustained levels of economic pain and hardship.
Following this week’s short-term trading summary, we will provide an update of our big-picture overview to monitor just how well the powers-that-be are executing their efforts to incite and orchestrate a perceived bottom.
Trading amid Intervention
How should traders and prudent speculators deal with massive government interventions in the supposed free-markets? Should they immediately get-long the intervention bandwagon, or should they stand pat on shorts, in attempt to fade the omnipotent fed?
In our view, the answer is none-of-the-above. Despite exerted efforts to manipulate markets, the short-answer is to simply trade the price-action as it is presented – contrived, fraudulent, or otherwise.
Short-Term Trading Environment: Week ending 25-Jan.
Last week’s trade was frantic, excessive, and extremely volatile. The highlight was Wednesday’s 600-point daily range-reversal off a retest of Tuesday’s lows. We warned traders in advance to anticipate potential for larger drawdowns and the likelihood of larger potential losses amid the ongoing melee.
Re-Capping last week’s trading points:
It was apparent on Monday’s market Holiday that trade would open the shortened week with a significant decline.
Though markets were likely on path to putting in a near-term bottom on their own, the emergency intervention efforts simply sealed the deal, and set the stage for Wednesday’s deep re-test and hyper-reversal to the upside.
The Near Term Outlook already had sell-side positions in place from the previous week, many of which achieved downside price target objectives amid Tuesdays sell-off.
We had also been anticipating and actively probing for a near-term low. Tuesday was no exception, as buy-side probes were quantified per our evening report posted the previous Friday.
Yes indeed, we faded the initial intervention rally on Tuesday to capture 300-pts of intraday profit near Wednesday’s lows, while our longer time-frame buy-probes off bottom continued un-stopped.
The mega-reversal rally on Wednesday also triggered at least two additional short-term long-positions, one of which has already reached a rather profitable price objective.
By Thursday, we were back in what appeared to be a business-as-usual “levitation” mode, which often follows major price spikes, especially when fostered and mandated by “the fed.”
Ignoring such political acrobatics, our discipline called for a short-term sell-side position which was indeed stopped for a loss on Friday’s marginal new high.
With our usual resolve, the follow-through high on Friday open was also faded with three separate sell-side trade-signals – two of which have already achieved their downside price objectives on sustained weakness through the close of the week’s final session.
All said and done, we grabbed well over 1300 points from the Dow by week’s end - with one long and two short positions still actively working.
Below is graphic summary of this week’s trade-triggers identified via Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook .
The Broad market update (big-picture)
On a grand-scale, major equity indices (with the assistance of massive interventions) are trying to recover from key-minor support level breaches. They are fast approaching a time frame in which a swift and forceful recovery must be sustained in order to re-claim and salvage investor confidence for the long-haul.
A long-term look across the pond (germany’s dax)
The chart of the DAX below was taken from our Millennium Wave Quarterly report archives from December 2007.
Aside from a humorous reference made to the charts pattern resembling the logo from the film “V” for Vendetta, it keenly illustrates the complexities and pitfalls common to the ultimate resolution of best applying Elliott Wave labels to larger degree price structures.
One notable example of this is the rise of intermediate wave (b) in 1998, and the pursuant decline to Primary 4 the very same year. At the time, many had assumed the end of the bull market was assured at the (b) wave high – not so, as history shows.
It was not until the maniacal thrust to the 8136.16 high was answered with a 73% percent market wipe-out in 2003 that bulls were forced to raise the white flag and submit. No sooner than the ink could dry on the decree and terms of surrender – another massive bull market campaign was waged.
2008, Five Years Later…
As evidenced via the shaded price series plotting the Euro vs. Gold, which clearly illustrates the level of high-jinks required by the global banking cartels to engineer a rapid and sustained “V” like reflationary B-wave advance at primary degree – we now become witness to the potential of what may ultimately become known as the Great Double-Top.
Of more immediate utility, our observations on December 11, 2007 warned of an imminent 1100-pt decline dead ahead for the DAX. Furthermore, our analysis laid out a strategic downside area in which this pending decline was likely to base.
The 2nd chart that follows will show the immediate outcome of this forward looking analysis.
Should one have interest in subscribing to our long-term technical analysis and/or acquiring access to our proprietary short-term market landscapes, we invite you to visit our web-site or blog page for more information.
The Near Term Outlook covers the short-term Dow, S&P, and NDX five-days-per-week, and issues near-term updates for the Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and the HUI two times per week.
Although we cannot be certain that the DAX will recover to print additional historic highs over the intermediate-term, we do know that it remains plausible given the present set of conditions.
While Elliott Waves eventually work themselves out over the course of time, the same price-action methodology which governs our short-term trading, shall guide us through reconciling the wave counts as they unfold at the highest degrees of trend.
Should one have interest in subscribing to our long-term technical analysis and/or acquiring access to our proprietary short-term market landscapes, we invite you to visit our web-site or blog page for more information.
The Near Term Outlook covers the short-term Dow, S&P, and NDX five-days-per-week, and issues near-term updates for the Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and the HUI two times per week.
Published on Mon, Feb 4 2008, 13:34 GMT
0
0
Orchestrating a bottom?
Tue, Jan 29 2008, 09:28 GMT
by Joseph Russo
A Work in Progress
Well, it is blatantly obvious that the (PPT) plunge protection team, presidents working group – or whatever they call themselves - found it necessary to intervene in the free-market in attempt to orchestrate a bottom.
Where are these guys when markets are a boiling-pot of unsustainable parabolic animal spirit? We suspect during such episodes, they are patting themselves on the back for planting the seeds for such bullish orgies.
Massive Undertaking / Will it be Different this Time
Might the inordinately early rescue efforts (which began pre-Dow 14K, in August of ’07) be telling of the sheer size and scope that this particular bail-out requires?
This alone, may suggest that any short-term temporary political stimulus (even alongside the redundancy of emergency monetary policy interventions) may do little to mitigate what is quite plausibly a much longer-term systemic malady.
When does Change become Revolution
Given that both Democrats and Republicans are in general agreement (prompting both to mount strong campaign platforms of “change”) that a critical portion of our government is fundamentally broken, we wonder how each candidate would define accomplishing “true-change” without radical consequence? Perhaps this may be why (R) Ron Paul is being ignored like the plague by his opponents and mainstream media alike.
In our view, the century for tweaking status quo paradigms has past. The 21st century demands a bold new sustainable vision of truth, preservation, prosperity, and security. Anything less equates to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
We suspect change-denied, becomes revolution when a failing government’s inevitable last band-aid-fix and race-against-time falls terribly short - prompting masses of regional populations toward revolt, and general civil unrest as a result of acute and sustained levels of economic pain and hardship.
Following this week’s short-term trading summary, we will provide an update of our big-picture overview to monitor just how well the powers-that-be are executing their efforts to incite and orchestrate a perceived bottom.
Trading amid Intervention
How should traders and prudent speculators deal with massive government interventions in the supposed free-markets? Should they immediately get-long the intervention bandwagon, or should they stand pat on shorts, in attempt to fade the omnipotent fed?
In our view, the answer is none-of-the-above. Despite exerted efforts to manipulate markets, the short-answer is to simply trade the price-action as it is presented – contrived, fraudulent, or otherwise.
Short-Term Trading Environment: Week ending 25-Jan.
Last week’s trade was frantic, excessive, and extremely volatile. The highlight was Wednesday’s 600-point daily range-reversal off a retest of Tuesday’s lows. We warned traders in advance to anticipate potential for larger drawdowns and the likelihood of larger potential losses amid the ongoing melee.
Re-Capping last week’s trading points:
It was apparent on Monday’s market Holiday that trade would open the shortened week with a significant decline.
Though markets were likely on path to putting in a near-term bottom on their own, the emergency intervention efforts simply sealed the deal, and set the stage for Wednesday’s deep re-test and hyper-reversal to the upside.
The Near Term Outlook already had sell-side positions in place from the previous week, many of which achieved downside price target objectives amid Tuesdays sell-off.
We had also been anticipating and actively probing for a near-term low. Tuesday was no exception, as buy-side probes were quantified per our evening report posted the previous Friday.
Yes indeed, we faded the initial intervention rally on Tuesday to capture 300-pts of intraday profit near Wednesday’s lows, while our longer time-frame buy-probes off bottom continued un-stopped.
The mega-reversal rally on Wednesday also triggered at least two additional short-term long-positions, one of which has already reached a rather profitable price objective.
By Thursday, we were back in what appeared to be a business-as-usual “levitation” mode, which often follows major price spikes, especially when fostered and mandated by “the fed.”
Ignoring such political acrobatics, our discipline called for a short-term sell-side position which was indeed stopped for a loss on Friday’s marginal new high.
With our usual resolve, the follow-through high on Friday open was also faded with three separate sell-side trade-signals – two of which have already achieved their downside price objectives on sustained weakness through the close of the week’s final session.
All said and done, we grabbed well over 1300 points from the Dow by week’s end - with one long and two short positions still actively working.
Below is graphic summary of this week’s trade-triggers identified via Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook .
The Broad market update (big-picture)
On a grand-scale, major equity indices (with the assistance of massive interventions) are trying to recover from key-minor support level breaches. They are fast approaching a time frame in which a swift and forceful recovery must be sustained in order to re-claim and salvage investor confidence for the long-haul.
Should one have interest in subscribing to our long-term technical analysis and/or acquiring access to our proprietary short-term market landscapes, we invite you to visit our web-site or blog page for more information.
The Near Term Outlook covers the short-term Dow, S&P, and NDX five-days-per-week, and issues near-term updates for the Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and the HUI two times per week.
Published on Tue, Jan 29 2008, 09:28 GMT
0
0
The song remains the same
Tue, Jan 22 2008, 11:49 GMT
by Joseph Russo
Hauntingly Familiar
Here we are once again, suddenly embroiled amid a frenzy of financial crisis, and looming bail-out interventions.
The jury is still out as to whether or not this crisis will turn out to be “the big one” that will take down the entire house of cards.
Inevitably, the day will come when no form of economic stimulus or monetary policy interventions will be sufficient enough to provide remedy to the decades of sub-standard stewardship rendered by our elected officials.
Until such a day of reckoning arrives, we can not discount the possibility that the present cast of self-perceived masters-of-the-universe and their monopoly stronghold, which is rapidly fracturing, will prevail once again.
Following this week’s short-term trading summary, we will provide a brief, big-picture overview of the broad market indices to see just how vulnerable they have become in the last three months.
Maintaining Resolve
Another such song that remains the same is the one we sing daily while interpreting the price-action landscape from a short-term trader’s perspective.
Our analysis is purely a function of price-action, which in turn is continually reconciled against our longer-term wave counts and view of overall market structures.
Our proprietary work graphically deciphers the dynamic price-action landscape as it unfolds. We carefully draft the analysis to be free of bias, highlighting most, if not all of the pending and active trade-triggers telegraphed within a given price series.
Short-Term Trading Summary: Week ending 18-Jan.
From a counter-trend rally standpoint – though we continue to anticipate and prepare for one, as of last week - no low was low enough from which to launch a sustainable counter-trend rally.
Coming into last week on the short-side with two successive sell-triggers, a pair of intervening stabs at a tradable low failed miserably.
Shortly thereafter, we were back on the right side of things with another sell-trigger elected on Wednesday.
Thursday provided additional justification to probe for a low. Following a modest rally attempt at the open on Friday, this effort also ended up failing.
Friday’s failed rally-attempt allowed us a rare second chance to enter a previously triggered short-trade (circled) which we failed to identify in our prior days report.
All said and done, we took over 580 points from the Dow by week’s end.
Below is graphic summary of this week’s trade-triggers identified via Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook .
The broad market update (big-picture)
On a grand-scale, major equity indices have breached key-minor support levels in recent weeks. They are fast approaching a time frame in which a swift and forceful recovery must get underway in order to re-claim and salvage their fractured minor-degree up-trends.
Failure to do so in a timely fashion, accompanied by an acceleration of losses, risks engendering widespread recognition that a longer-term “trend change” to the downside has embedded itself in the minds of the majority of participants both large and small.
Should one have interest in receiving regular updates of our technical analysis for the long-term, and/or subscriber access to monitor our proprietary short-term market landscapes, we invite you to visit our web-site or blog page to obtain additional information.
The Near Term Outlook covers the short-term Dow, S&P, and NDX five-days-per-week, and issues near-term updates for the Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and the HUI two times per week.
Published on Tue, Jan 22 2008, 11:49 GMT
0
0
Price−action rules
Tue, Jan 15 2008, 13:20 GMT
by Joseph Russo
The following exchange is a brief and rather illuminating excerpt from Jack Schwager’s interview with Paul Tudor Jones from the 1990 national best-seller Market Wizards (Interviews with top traders.)
Jack Schwager: My impression is that you often implement positions near market turns. Sometimes your precision has been uncanny. What is it about your decision-making process that allows you to get in so close to the turns?
Paul Tudor Jones: I have very strong view of the long-run direction of all markets. I also have a very short-term horizon for pain. As a result, frequently, I may try repeated trades from the long side over a period of weeks in a market which continues to move lower.
Jack Schwager: Is it a matter of doing a series of probes until you finally hit it?
Paul Tudor Jones: Exactly- I consider myself a premier market opportunist. That means I develop an idea on the market and pursue it from a very-low-risk standpoint until I have repeatedly been proven wrong, or until I change my viewpoint.
Jack Schwager: In other words, it makes a better story to say, “Paul Tudor Jones buys the T-bond market 2 ticks from the low,” rather than “On his fifth try, Paul Jones buys the T-bond market 2 ticks from its low.”
Paul Tudor Jones: I think that is certainly part of it. The other part is that I have always been a swing trader, meaning that I believe the very best money is to be made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all the money by catching the trends in the middle. Well, for twelve years, I have often been missing the meat in the middle, but I have caught a lot of bottoms and tops.
If you are a trend follower trying to catch the profits in the middle of a move, you have to use very wide stops. I’m not comfortable doing that. Also, markets trend only about 15 percent of the time; the rest of the time they move sideways.
We highly recommend reading the rest of Jack’s interview with Paul Tudor Jones, along with the balance of in-depth interviews presented throughout this eye-opening book.
In our view, it is apparent that in the above excerpt, Mr. Jones counter-trend “swing-trading” preference relative to “trend-trading,” is no doubt speaking to those seeking to hold positions for longer-durations, and attempting to capture sustained price-moves. In the case of trend-traders, nirvana would be to “let profits run” into perpetuity if a market so permitted.
By definition, “swing-trading” seeks to counter-trade, or fade