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Early Rally Fizzles Ahead of Earnings

Tue, Apr 8 2008, 14:41 GMT
by Carley Garner

Alaron


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An early morning rally on Wall Street fizzled as the day progressed. With most of the major indices at or near major resistance levels, investors may have been playing it “safe” by taking some risk off of the table ahead of the earnings season. Alcoa Inc. is set to issue results after the bell to kick things off.

Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, noted that “When the market closes, first quarter earnings kick up – it looks like people are taking money off the table ahead of those.”

Much of the early morning buying is said to have been triggered by corporate deal making, specifically a private equity investment in Washington Mutual Inc. As a result, the banking stocks which have been the brunt of the bears selling enjoyed a relatively positive day.

Remember, the market tends to rally ahead of earnings then correct as they are reported simply because it is difficult to meet the expectations of many investors. Even if Wall Street earnings targets are met, it may not be enough to fend off profit taking.

While the Dow may be at or near a temporary ceiling, a spike to 12,832 is possible depending on tomorrows FOMC minutes, next week’s economic data and the upcoming earnings season. The Nasdaq may see levels as high as 2000.

Please note: A mini-sized Dow chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations are based the full sized Dow unless otherwise noted.

image 1

Dow Recommendations...

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade –

  • April 1 – Sell 1 April Dow 130 call for $600 or better (this can be done in the mini instead for $300!)
  • · April 7 – Place an order to buy this back for 15 ticks or better.

Please note: A mini-Nasdaq chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

image 2

Nasdaq Recommendation

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade – Flat




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