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The Currency Futures Report

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Canadian Dollar Rallies With Oil Prices

Fri, Jun 5 2009, 07:45 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Canadian Dollar (CDM9):

The CD opened lower at .8976, before following oil prices higher after a bullish forcast from a Goldman Sachs analyst of $85.00/bbl by the end of 2009. Prices rose to a daily Hi of .9151, before drifting lower to a close of .9117, up 91 tics. An increase in risk-appetite weighed on the DX and helped raise most commodity prices, supporting the advance. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. Traders will key on over-seas equity markets and the Non-Farm Payroll report for direction. A higher open should find Resistance at .9270 and .9194, while an open below .9074 may find Support at .8998 and .8878.

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened higher at 78.94 and retraced to our Pivot level of 79.19 after better than expected economic data sent equity markets higher. A bullish forecast for $85.00 crude oil increased inflation projections and weighed further on the DX, before bouncing into the close of 79.45, down 8.5 tics. Higher oil prices could continue to pressure the DX. Traders will be cautious ahead of the Payroll Report and play off the 520K -550K expectations. A number outside the forecast could see increase in volatility and price. A lower open may find Support at 79.01 and 78.58, while an open above 79.50 should find Resistance at 79.94 and 80.43.

Euro Currency (ECM9):

The EC opened lower at 1.4091and rose to a morning Hi of 1.4226 after the ECB left their s/t rates 'unchanged' at 1.0% . ECB President Trichet stated that rates are 'appropriate' for the present time and he looks for a rebound in the EZ economy in 2010. Prices traded lower into the close of 1.4178, up 45 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ expensive momentum indicators. Taking further rate cuts off the table w/out increasing the amount of quantitative easing maintains the yield-gap and supports current levels. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4256 and 1.4335, while an open below 1.4163 may find Support at 1.4084 and 1.3991.

Published on  Fri, Jun 5 2009, 07:48 GMT