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The Currency Futures Report

This report has been deactivated

Long 59,128 62,429

Short 6,241 8,439

Net 52,887 53,990

(Source Reuters)

Last week the US GDP showed the economy grew in the 3rd quarter by 3.5%. Optimists may say this indicates the economy is emerging from the worst recession in 70 years, while others would point to the economic stimulus programs including "Cash for Clunkers" and the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers which contributed to the positive GDP report last week as the reason for the gain, suggesting the economy may still struggle in the coming months.

Either way, it is highly unlikely the FED will make any changes in it's FOMC meetings Tuesday and Wednesday. Most analysts expect the FED to keep interest rate hikes on hold through mid-2010, according to Reuters News.

The Focus this week will be on the labor market, with initial jobless claims Thursday and October Unemployment due out Friday expected to show a new 26 year high unemployment rate of 9.9%. Payrolls fell by 175,000 last month, deepening the "Worst employment slump since the 1930's", according to Bloomberg News. Until we see significant progress in the US employment situation, the FED will likely continue in it's current monetary policy of near zero interest rates and qualitative easing, therefore the secular bear market in the US Dollar is likely to continue.

Look for opportunities to get short the US Dollar and long the Australian and or Canadian Dollars this week. Keep an eye on this report or contact us directly at 1-888-436-6033 for new recommendations!

Published on Mon, Nov 2 2009, 08:49 GMT

10/20/09 week 10/13/09 week

Long 62,429 59,930

Short 8,439 7,283

Net 53,990 52,647

(Source Reuters News)

All eyes will be on US 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Production report due to be released Thursday October 29th. The US economy is expected to show growth in the 3rd quarter as government stimulus programs including the 3 Billion dollar "Cash for Clunkers" program and tax credits for first-time homebuyers impact is announced. According to Bloomberg news, the median estimate is expected to show a 3.2% increase in economic growth over the third quarter, after declining for the last 4 quarters.

China's economy grew by 8.9% year over year in the 3rd quarter as stimulus spending and lending growth helped to improve Chinese demand for exports from commodity producing nations such as Australia, (Gold), and Canada, (Oil). Australia became the first of the G-20 nations to raise their interest rates recently in an effort to head off inflationary pressures as their economy recovers. Both the Australia and Canada have seen their dollars increase to the highest levels in 14 months recently, with the Canadian dollar nearing parity with the US dollar last week in a trend which is likely to continue for the near term.

A British Pounding

UK GDP dropped unexpectedly, (-0.4%), for the 3rd quarter according to the Office for National Statistics in London Friday, surprising the market and sending the Sterling down nearly 2%. According to Bloomberg News, of 23 economists surveyed the median forecast was for a 0.2% increase, with none forecasting a contraction. This means the Bank of England will likely have to continue qualitative easing, increasing the supply of its currency and therefore pressuring its value lower over the near term. Look for opportunities to be short the Sterling over the coming week.

Published on Mon, Oct 26 2009, 07:54 GMT

10/13/09 week 10/06/09 week

Long 59,930 58,029

Short 7,283 7,864

Net 52,647 50,165

The Bank of Canada is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at a record low level, (0.25%), when it meets Tuesday, according to 23 of 23 economists in a Bloomberg News survey last week. The primary factor in leaving borrowing costs unchanged is that consumer price index data released last week declined for the fourth straight month, indicating a lack of inflation.

The rising Canadian dollar could slow the pace of economic recovery by lowering demand for its exports, however this may be offset by a strong US equity market and rising crude oil prices. The Bank of Canada is scheduled to release it's quarterly monetary policy report Thursday outlining it's inflation forecasts.

The Canadian dollar has increased by over 25% since March 2009, (From 7735 to a new high of 9719 Friday), and will likely test parity with the US dollar over the near term. Commitment of traders data above shows a large increase in long positions betting on the "Looney" to rise.

The US dollar hit fresh 14 month lows last week in a trend which is likely to continue as the US economy continues to struggle with rising unemployment and massive debt, which will likely prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates well into 2010. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan commented last week that larger budget deficits will continue to put downward pressure on the US dollar and upward pressure on borrowing costs.

The British Pound Rallied late in the week on Bank of England's Paul Fisher's comments that policy makers would be more likely to suspend asset purchases or qualitative easing, reducing concern of of it's flooding the market with new currency, according to Bloomberg News. This supportive rhetoric is similar to that of US Treasury Secretary Geithner's post G-7 statement October 3rd that a "Strong US Dollar" is very important to the US in that it is unlikely to support the currency over the longer term. Commitment of traders data released Friday shows currency traders are betting heavily of the Sterling to decline. Last week's rally may prove to be a good opportunity to establish limited risk short position over the near term.

Keep an eye on this report for new recommendations next week.

Published on Mon, Oct 19 2009, 07:30 GMT

10/06/09 week 9/29/09 week

Long 58,029 55,700

Short 7,864 8,002

Net 50,165 47,698

Highlights

Australia surprised currency speculators this past week with a 1/4 point increase in their interest rate suggesting that the global economy may actually be recovering from the recent economic crisis.
Conditions are still weak in the US, Europe and Japan however, a condition that is likely to become more clear over the coming week.

Commodity exporting economies such as Australia (Gold) and Canada(Oil)have fared far better than the US and Europe in 2009. With this move, Australia became the first of the G-20 nations to raise interest rates since the start of the financial crisis. The shift in monetary policy toward tightening is aimed at heading off inflation as their economy improves. Australian Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens indicated in a statement that "this may be the first in a series of interest rate increases", according to the Wall Street Journal. Both the Australian and the Canadian Dollar finished the week at record highs for 2009, and appear poised to move significantly higher. We could see a test of parity with the Canadian and US Dollar over the near term.

In contrast, the US, Europe and the UK are going to need to keep their interest rates low to stimulate economic activity in order for their economies to recover. This past week, several countries intervened to keep their currencies from rising too much against the US Dollar. Higher currency prices have the effect of making that nations exports less attractive (More expensive) to their trading partners abroad, slowing prospects for economic recovery.

The US Dollar index hit 14 month lows last week, recovering some ground late in the week on statements from ECB President Jean Claude Trichet favoring a strong US Dollar policy and from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on the importance of a strong US Dollar, but it is unlikely any actions will be taken to support the dollar as it is beneficial to US exports which are vital to economic recovery. Look for continued weakness in the US Dollar and especially the British Pound over the near term.

Published on Mon, Oct 12 2009, 08:34 GMT

The September US Dollar broke below key 7750 support this week

Fri, Sep 11 2009, 08:16 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Currency Trends

This report will focus on a review of the recent trends in the currency markets from a technical perspective in order to determine potential trading opportunities for the week ahead.

New Recommedations

Open Positions

Short September Dollar Index filled 9/08 at 7734.
Lower stop from 7809 to 7729 to lock in $50 gain. Hold with an initial objective of 7510.

US Dollar

The September US Dollar broke below key 7750 support this week, the lowest level since September 2008. A weekly close below 7750 could trigger a selloff to the 7500 level over the near term. Nearby resistance based on the 50% retracement level and the moving average channel comes in at approximately 8000, with the next resistance level at the 200 day moving average of approximately 8200.

Euro

The September Euro is testing the 61.8% retracement of its July – October 2008 sell-off as of this writing. A significant close above 1.4700 basis the September contract is necessary to indicate a continuation of the current uptrend. Current Fibonacci support levels come in at 1.4157 and 1.3724. No new recommendation at this time.

Yen

From it’s 2008 low of 9013 to it’s 2009 high of 11496, the Japanese Yen retraced almost exactly to it’s 61.8% Fibonacci level on April 6th and appears poised to continue in it’s uptrend. Key resistance is the July highs of just over 10905. A significant close above that level may trigger a test of the 11200 level.
Considering recommending a bullish option strategy on the next pullback to trendline support and moving average support levels of 1.0461-1.0547.

British Pound

The September British Pound has retraced just over 38.2% of its late 2007-early 2009 sell-off, and appears poised to potentially test the next Fibonacci resistance level of 173.37 and possibly 18234 over the coming weeks. Tests of these resistance levels may prove to be good opportunities to establish short positions using limited risk option strategies, looking for the longer term downtrend to resume.

Swiss Franc

The September Swiss Franc broke above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement this week, and is testing Key Resistance of 9662. A significant close above that level is necessary to indicate a continuation of the current uptrend. No new recommendation at this time.

Published on Fri, Sep 11 2009, 08:16 GMT

Dollar 'Pauses' Ahead of FOMC Results

Wed, Aug 12 2009, 08:18 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Dollar Index (DXU9):

The DX opened lower at 79.21 and rose to a morning Hi of 79.475 as equity markets retraced and traders sought the safe-haven of Dollars and Treasuries.
Prices retraced to a mid-day Lo of 79.16 as equity prices rebounded and ended the day-session at 79.28, down 10 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. Traders will look for movement in foreign equity markets as a key to direction of the Dollar, however, with results of the FOMC coming out, longs should tighten 'stops' of buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A lower open may find Support at 79.10 and 78.93, while an open above 79.29 should find Resistance at 79.46 and 79.65.

Published on Wed, Aug 12 2009, 08:18 GMT

Cable Breaks Out on PMI Report, DX Drop

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 05:42 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Tue, Jun 30 2009, 05:46 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Dollar Index (DXU9):

The DX opened higher at 80.145 after China ruled out any 'sudden-changes' in its foreign reserves policy, reducing pressure to divest itself away from its large holding of U.S. Treasuries. Prices rose to a morning Hi of 80.295, on belief that the U.S. economy will lead most G-7 countries out of the global slow-down. As equity prices rose, traders moved out of the safe-haven of Dollars, taking on more risk for higher returns, sending DX lower into the day-session close of 80.11, up .5 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/neutral momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at 79.895 and 79.68, while an open above 80.245 should find Resistance at 80.46 and 80.81. Traders could see pressure from higher equity prices and book-squaring ahead of the month, quarter and six-month close.

Euro Currency (ECU9):

The EC opened lower at our Pivot level of 1.4053 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.4039, against the higher DX. Higher equity prices weighed on the DX and sent the EC to a mid-day Hi of 1.4101, before ending the session at 1.4081, up 6 tics.While reports have the EZ economy lagging behind the U.S., traders looking for higher yields could pressure the DX as they exit the safe-haven benefits of the 'green-back'. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4128 and 1.4176, while an open below 1.4054 may find Support at 1.4006 and 1.3932.

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

The CD opened lower at .8671 and rose to a morning Hi at our Pivot level of .8694. Despite higher crude oil prices, the higher DX and a potentially negative report Tuesday on the GDP sent prices to a mid-day Lo of .8624. Prices bounced into the close to end the day-session at .8650, down 31 tics. Tuesday's GDP report and a shortened Holiday trading week may have led traders to take some risk off the table. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at .8618 and .8586, while an open above .8656 should find Resistance at .8688 and .8726.

Published on Tue, Jun 30 2009, 05:46 GMT

Increase in Risk−Appetite Supports Euro

Fri, Jun 26 2009, 06:33 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Euro-Currency (ECU9):

The EC opened higher at 1.3935 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.8860, before following equity prices higher. An increase in risk-appetite saw traders leaving the safe-haven of Dollars, sending the EC to a daily Hi of 1.4012, before drifting lower towards the close to end the session at 1.3985, up 66 tics. The close above the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/neutral momentum indicators.
Traders will key on overseas equity markets as a barometer for 'risk', which could benefit the Euro should traders rotate out of DX, seeking higher yields. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4036 and 1.4087, while an open below 1.3961 may find Support at 1.3910 and 1.3835.

Dollar Index (DXU9):

The Dollar opened higher at 81.06 and rose to a daily Hi of 81.255, before an increase in risk-appetite sent equity prices higher and DX to a daily Lo of 80.57.
Prices found Support at our Pivot level of 80.62 and ended the day-session at 80.70, down 18 tics. The close below the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Higher equity prices could weigh further on the DX ahead of Friday's economic reports on Personal Consumption, Personal Income and the U of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey at 8:30am et. A lower open may find Support at 80.42 and 80.15, while an open above 80.84 should find Resistance at 81.11 and 81.52.

Published on Fri, Jun 26 2009, 06:33 GMT

Who's afraid of the Big Bad Fed?

Wed, Jun 24 2009, 06:17 GMT
by Phil Flynn

Alaron

Who’s afraid of the big bad Fed, the big bad Fed, and the big bad Fed? Who is afraid? Futures traders, that's who. The dollar huffed and puffed and blew the bull’s house down as commodities across the board got blown away. Is the oil market finally facing what many feel is weak demand reality or is the reality just changing. The World Bank's outlook for the global economy was partly to blame for yesterday’s commodity massacre as they called for a contraction in the global economy by a sharp 2.9%, a big leap higher than the more modest 1.7% contraction that they called for last month. News out of China was mixed as it was reported that Chinese oil usage spiked 6% in May which normally is very bullish but that spike came as their exports fell 26% percent leading the market to question the sustainability of China’s recent demand surge. Can China continue to buy commodities just for their own domestic consumption as the global demand for their products falter? Sure, all of that was in play yet it was the sudden strength in the dollar that seems to indicate quite strongly that traders, while worried about the impact that global commodity demand might have on Canada and Australia, see the move in the dollar to indicate that many are taking cover ahead of the Fed.

Still we have to acknowledge what the market seems to be ignoring. Iran upheaval after the disputed presidential election continues as there is the possibility of a nationwide strike to protest the results. The National Post reported that, “Iran arrested hundreds of people after deadly clashes on the tense streets of Tehran, state radio said on Monday, but the opposition defiantly vowed to press on with its post-election protests." The Post says that, "Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has led a wave of massive protests over what he says was a rigged election that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, urged supporters to continue demonstrating but to adopt "self-restraint" to avoid more bloodshed.”

Still oil is unmoved as there are scores of producers waiting to fill any void in oil production that may happen in the event of a cut off in supply. Some worried that Iran’s military maneuvers might be a sign that Iran plans to try to cut oil shipments from the straits of Hormuz. More than likely it was to try to divert attention away from their domestic problems.

And then oil has to worry about kooks with nukes in North Korea. Threats that they might shoot a missile towards Hawaii and more provocative acts could come back to haunt us all. The Wall Street Journal is reporting, "The Pentagon continues to trail a North Korean cargo ship believed headed toward Myanmar, in part because U.S. officials worry that Pyongyang plans to transfer major weapons systems and possibly nuclear technologies to the repressive Southeast Asian country, current and former U.S. officials said.” The Journal says that, “North Korea has used Myanmar ports and airstrips to transfer arms and contraband to third countries, including Iran, these officials said. Myanmar's military government also has purchased on the open market technologies that are potentially usable in a nuclear program, and North Korean arms companies involved in the nuclear trade have become active in Myanmar, said U.S., Asian and United Nations officials.”

And let’s talk about a place that actually has seen oil production drop due to attacks and that place is Nigeria. Bloomberg news reported that, “economic growth in Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, slowed to 6.3 percent in the first quarter as crude oil output slumped. Growth in gross domestic product slowed from 8.2 percent in the final quarter of 2008. Nigeria’s oil production slumped 10 percent to 1.68 million barrels per day in the first quarter compared with the previous three months." Over the weekend it was reported by Voice of America that Nigeria's main militant group said it sabotaged three more oil facilities in the Niger Delta in response to a military offensive begun last in the region. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said in a statement e-mailed to journalists that the group had destroyed two Royal Dutch Shell oil pipelines in Rivers state. It is the first attack by militants in the eastern delta since MEND launched its latest campaign of sabotage. MEND said it also attacked a Shell offshore facility on Sunday. A Shell official has confirmed the attack on two Shell oil pipelines in Rivers state but denied that its offshore facility had also been targeted.

These stories normally would move oil but the cushion in spare capacity has made them basically footnotes in a market that is more focused on the dollar and global demand destruction. Of course inventories may also come into play tonight when the American Petroleum Institute releases their weekly inventory report and the Department of Energy version will come tomorrow. According to the Bloomberg Survey crude oil inventories are expected to fall by 1.2 million barrel as refinery output increases to meet peak summertime demand. Gasoline supply is expected to increase by one million barrels and distillates up 800,000. My response to the survey was in line as I called for crude to be down 2 million barrels gas up one million and distillates up 1 million.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, day trades and short term trades are the best option. The hard oil correction may be just the beginning of a major down side move or just a summer dip. The Fed will determine that tomorrow. In the mean time keep up with the latest on the Fox Business Network where you can see me every day. And if you have any questions feel free to call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@alaron.com to open your account.

Stopped on long August crude from apprx 7000 at apprx 6790.

Buy August heating oil at 16500 - stop 16300.

Buy August RBOB at 17300 - stop 16900.

We're long August natural gas from apprx 4120 – stop 392.

Published on Wed, Jun 24 2009, 06:17 GMT

World Bank Forecast 'Shakes' Confidence, Supports Dollar

Tue, Jun 23 2009, 08:21 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Dollar Index (DXU9):

The Dollar opened higher at 81.16 after the World Bank revised its forecast for the global economic recovery 'lower', sending equity markets tumbling and traders running for 'safe-haven' Treasuries and Dollars. Prices rose to a morning Hi of 81.30, before drifting lower to a day-session close of 81.14, up 51 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/neutral momentum indicators. Traders will key on equity markets 'overseas' for further indication of 'risk-aversion', ahead of Tuesday's Existing Home Sales report. A higher open should find Resistance at 81.42 and 81.70, while an open below 81.02 may find Support at 80.74 and 80.34.

British Pound (BPU9):

Sterling opened lower at our Pivot level 1.6455 and continued lower against a higher DX as equity markets saw traders taking profit/risk off the table. Weaker Home Prices added to the weakness, sending prices to a daily low of 1.6317, before ending the day-session at 1.6342, dow 171 tics. The close below the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative',w/ neutral momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at 1.6268 and 1.6195, while an open above 1.6391 should find Resistance at 1.6464 and 1.6587.

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

The CD opened lower at .8734 and followed most other major foreign currencies lower as the DX was bid higher by those seeking a 'safe-haven' from the equity market sell-off. The stronger DX sent commodity prices and the CD to a daily Lo of .8657, before bouncing towards the close to end the session at .8684, down 135 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at .8618 and .8552, while an open above .8723 should find Resistance at .8789 and .8894.

Published on Tue, Jun 23 2009, 08:21 GMT

Risk Aversion, Weak Sterling, Support Dollar

Tue, May 19 2009, 04:56 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

British Pound (BPM9):

Sterling opened higher at 1.5281 after a report showing Retail Sales and Existing Home Prices were better than expected. Prices rose to a morning Hi of 1.5314 against a weaker DX as higher equity prices weighed on the safe-haven benefit as risk appetite increased. Traders continued to bid prices higher early in the afternoon, hitting a mid-day level of 1.5336, before drifting lower towards the day-session close of 1.5316, up 157 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/firm momentum indicators. Higher equity prices overseas and 'buy' rec's from investment banks should push prices up to our Target Resistance of 1.5352.
Profit-taking in equity markets could support the DX. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.5397 and 1.5478, while an open below 1.5255 may find Support at 1.5174 and 1.5032.

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened lower at 82.88 as an increase in risk-appetite pushed equity prices higher and the DX lower to a morning Lo of 82.755. Continued pressure from higher equity markets and a stronger BP sent prices lower towards the close, ending the day-session at 82.77, down 37 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Higher equity markets will continue to pressure the DX as risk-appetite increases, lessening the need for the 'safe-haven' qualities. Look for prices to test the Target Suipport of 81.98 on 5/13. A lower open may find Support at 82.52 and 82.27, while an open above 82.92 should find Resistance at 83.17 and 83.58.

Japanese Yen (JYM9):

The JY opened lower at 1.0437 as risk-appetite enticed 'carry-traders' to borrow JY to purchase higher yields. A downgrade of Japan's foreign currency debt to Aa2 and a report of Q1 GDP on Wednesday showing a potential drop of -16.1% weighed on prices. Prices dropped to a morning Lo at our initial Support level of 1.0427, before continued selling pressure sent prices to a daily Lo of 1.0370, ending the session at 1.0375, down 147 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/topping momentum indicators. An increase in the carry-trade could pressure the JY further, as traders borrow at .25% and purchase higher returns outside of Japan. Look for a test at the 10-day MA of 1.0370, unless the enthusiasam for equties is premature. A lower open may find Support at 1.0303 and 1.0232, while an open above 1.3499 should find Resistance at 1.0513 and 1.0652.

Published on Tue, May 19 2009, 04:56 GMT

Euro 'Weaker' on Lower Than Expected GDP

Fri, Apr 24 2009, 06:13 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Euro Currency (ECM9):

The EC opened higher at 1.3051 on the better than expected increase in the EZ services and manufacturing industries index showed a jump to 40.5 in April, up from 38.3 in March. Hawkish comments from ECB council member Alex Weber stating that s/t rates are not likely to drop below 1.0% and that 'quantitative easing' is not in the immediate future helped support the EC. Prices slid to a morning Lo of 1.2996 as the equity markets retraced, supporting a jump in the DX. As equity markets rebounded, the EC followed prices higher into the close to end the session at 1.3109, up 96 tics. The close above the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/improving momentum indicators. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure ahead of the May 7th ECB decision. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.3160 and 1.3211, while an open below 1.3067 may find Support at 1.3016 and 1.2923.

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened lower at 86.28 and rose to a morning Hi of 86.50 as weaker than expected economic data from initial jobless claims and housing existing home sales sent equity markets lower, supporting the safe-haven of the DX. As equity markets rebounded into the afternoon session, the DX retraced towards the close to end the session at 85.76, down 73 tics. The close below the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Traders will key on the move in equity markets over-seas to see if the late day rally can continue. Higher equity markets will entice more risk-tolerance, which could weigh on the DX. Weak economic data Friday from Advance Durable Goods and New Home Sales could dampen higher equity prices. A lower open may find Support at 85.41 and 85.06, while an open above 86.03 should find Resistance at 86.38 and 87.00.

British Pound (BPM9):

The BP opened higher at 1.4563 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.4507 against the higher DX. As the equity markets attracted more risk-taking, traders exited the DX, supporting higher foreign markets and sending Sterling to a day-session Hi of 1.4698, before drifting lower towards the close to end the day at 1.4694, up 191 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4780 and 1.4867, while an open below 1.4612 may find Support at 1.4525 and 1.4357.

Canadian Dollar (CDM9):

The CD opened higher at .8108 and slid to our Pivot level of .8075 along with equity markets and oil prices, supporting a firmer DX. As the equity markets rebounded, oil prices supported the move of the CD to a day-session Hi of .8181, before closing the day at .8165, up 71 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. BoC's Governor Mark Carney acknowledged in the Monetary Policy Report that the BoC will likely leave rates 'unchanges' and only revert to 'quantitative easing' should it be necessary. Traders will key on the DX for direction. A higher open should find Resistance at .8212 and .8259, while an open below .8134 may find Support at .8087 and .8009.

Published on Fri, Apr 24 2009, 06:13 GMT

Weak Economic Data 'Hurts' Cable

Tue, Apr 21 2009, 06:33 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Fri, Mar 27 2009, 06:39 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Japanese Yen (JYM9):

The Yen opend lower at 1.0186 as equity markets rose and carry-traders sold Yen to add higher risk assets to their portfolios. Prices rose to a morning Hi of 1.0215, before sliding to 1.0141 as equity prices rebounded at the start of the afternoon session. The JY continued w/in a tight range through to the close of 1.0163, down 127 tics.The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators. Traders will look for a test of the previous Target Lo of 1.0054 on 3/5. A lower open may find Support at 1.0110 and 1.0058, while an open above 1.0194 should find Resistance at 1.0246 and 1.0330.

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened lower at 84.08 as traders sold off the safe-haven benefits of the DX to participate in higher equity prices. Prices dipped to a morning Lo of 83.91, before bouncing to a morning Hi of 84.595 and drifting lower into the afternoon session. As equity prices drifted lower, the DX rose to a day-session Hi of 84.70, before ending the day at 84.635, up 34 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. The s/t trend remains 'negaive' w/ weak momentum indicators. As long as the equity markets continue higher, the safe-haven aspects will be under pressure and weigh on prices. A higher open should find Resistance at 84.91 and 85.20, while an open below 84.41 may find Support at 84.12 and 83.62.

British Pound (BPM9):

Sterling opened lower at 1.4578 after a weaker than expected Retail Sales Report showing a -1.9% decrease last month. Prices jumped to a morning Hi of 1.4640, before following equity prices lower, to a morning Lo of 1.4475. Traders brought prices to a daily Lo of 1.4426, before closing the day-session at 1.4439, down 92 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. Traders will key on the DX for direction. A lower open may find Support at 1.4363 and 1.4288, while an open above 1.4502 should find Resistance at 1.4577 and 1.4716.

Canadian Dollar (CDM9):

The CD opened higher at .8163 and rose to a morning Hi of .8179, against a weaker DX and higher commodity prices. Prices drifted lower into the start of afternoon trading and ended the day at .8136, up 26 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive'w/ firm momentum indicators. Higher commodity prices continue to support prices w/in a topping formation. A lower open may find Support at .8106 and .8077, while an open above .8143 should find Resistance at .8172 and .8209.

Euro Currency (ECM9):

The EC opened higher at 1.3610 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.3642, before following equity prices lower and finding Support at our Pivot area of 1.3546 as we enter the afternoon session. The late afternoon rally in the DX weighed on the EC, sending it lower to a close of 1.3514, down 52 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive'w/expensive momentum indicators.The 'flagging' pattern is being weighed down by the potential of a 50bp-100bp rate cut by the ECB at the April 2nd meeting. A lower open may find Support at 1.3462 and 1.3410, while an open above 1.3552 should find Resistance at 1.3604 and 1.3694.

Published on Fri, Mar 27 2009, 06:39 GMT

Sterling 'Drops' on Failed Gilt Aution

Thu, Mar 26 2009, 06:00 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

British Pound (BPM9):

Sterling opened lower at 1.4569 after the Debt Management Office said it was unable to attract enough investors for the 1.75 billion pounds ($2.55 billion) of the 40 year securties. Prices bounced to a morning Hi of 1.4735 as the DX retraced on stronger economic data. Prices continued lower into the afternoon and ended the day-session at 1.4531, down 195 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ turning momentum indicators. The 'failed' auction sends a negative message to PM Brown, that the government should be cautios about spending and deficits.
Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A lower open may find Support at 1.4450 and 1.4368, while an open above 1.4597 should find Resistance at 1.4697 and 1.4826.

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened higher at 84.57 and rose to a morning Hi of 84.79, before a better than expected New Home Sales report showed an increase of +4.7%, which added to the better Durable Goods report helped equity markets rise. Traders left the safe-haven of the DX to take on more risk, sending prices to a morning Lo of 83.65. As equity prices retraced, the DX bounced into the afternoon session and traded around our Pivot level of 84.27 through to the day-session close of 84.30, down 3 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators.
Remarks from Treasury Secretary Geithner considering a 'new' global reserve currency may have weighed on prices. A higher open should find Resistance at 84.87 and 85.44, while an open below 84.26 may find Support at 83.69 and 83.08.

Euro Currency (ECM9):

The EC opened lower at 1.3486 and rose against the weaker Sterling to a morning Hi at our initial Resistance level of 1.3655. As the DX rebounded, the EC followed equity prices lower, before finding Support at our Pivot level of 1.3542. Prices bounced higher towards the close to end the day-session at 1.3566, up 47 tics.
The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ expensive momentum indicators. Comments about consideration for a new global reserve currency weighed on the Dollar and benefited the EC. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.3675 and 1.3783, while an open below 1.3546 may find Support at 1.3438 and 1.3309.

Published on Thu, Mar 26 2009, 06:00 GMT

Increase in Risk−Tolerance Weighs on Dollar

Tue, Mar 24 2009, 10:02 GMT
by Paul Brittain

Alaron

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened lower at 83.96 as traders increased their 'risk-tolerance' ahead of the toxic-asset public bailout plan. Equity markets rose overseas and continued higher ahead of the U.S. open. Prices rose as equity prices retraced to morning lows, before continuing lower into the afternoon session against most major foreing currency markets. Prices ended the session at 83.94, down 40 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators.While 'quantitative easing' and the 'bailout' of banks toxic assets are helping to stimulate the flow of credit and higher equity prices, the DX will continue to toil until the yield-gap closes or the ECB follows the same plan. A lower open may find Support at 83.32 and 82.70, while an open above 83.99 should find Resistance at 84.61 and 85.28.

Euro Currency (ECM9):

The EC opened higher at 1.3587 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.3485, before continuing higher throughout the session along with equity prices, as risk-tolerance increased and traders rotated out of safe-haven assets; Treasuries, Dollars and Yen. Prices rose into the afternoon and ended the session at 1.3630, up 78 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ over-bot momentum indicators. The inability to close above the previous Target Hi at 1.3737 on 3/19, along w/ comments from ECB member Alex Weber that further easing is likely, should weigh on prices over the medium term. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.3749 and 1.3868, while an open below 1.3617 may find Support at 1.3498 and 1.3366.

Published on Tue, Mar 24 2009, 10:02 GMT

Euro 'Lower' On Need for Further Rate Cuts

The EC opened higher at 1.5811 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.5825 after a higher than expected Industrial Production report of +0.3% vs expected +0.2% kept inflation concerns on the front burner and rate cuts on the back burner. Prices drifted to 1.5786, along with weaker equity prices, as we enter the afternoon session and retraced to a daily Lo of 1.5755, before ending the day at 1.5760, down 26 tics.The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'expensive' momentum indicators. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. The inability to challenge the Target Hi of 1.5867 may have led to some profit-taking. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A lower open may find Support at 1.5735 and 1.5710, while an open above 1.5780 should find Resistance at 1.5805 and 1.5850.

Japanese Yen (JYM8):

The JY opened higher at .9980 as weaker foreign equity markets saw carry-traders taking profit/risk off the table and cover JY short positions, driving the price to a morning Hi of .9980, before sliding to a morning Lo of .9940 on continued weakness in equities. Short-covering in the DX sent prices to a mid-day Lo of.9920, before bouncing into the close of .9935, down 16 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. Further weakness in equity markets would favor a higher JY as carry-traders would become more 'risk-averted' and cover JY shorts. A lower open may find Support at .9910 and .9885, while an open above .9945 should find Resistance at .9970 and 1.0005..

Published on Tue, Apr 15 2008, 13:06 GMT

Euro 'Gains' Ahead of ECB Rate Mtg.

British Pound (BPM8):

The BP opened higher at 1.9690 as carry-traders took on additional risk in exchange for the 5.25% yield. Prices slid to a morning Lo of 1.9675 after the stronger than expected U.S. ADP private employment forecast boosted the DX. Comments by Fed Chrm.Bernanke sent the DX lower and sent the BP to a mid-day Hi of 1.9724. As the DX continued under pressure, the BP rose to a daily Hi of 1.9790, before sliding to a close of 1.9769, up 123 tics.The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'weak' momentum indicators. Sterling appeals to s/t carry-traders with a 5.25% yield. A weakening housing sector may need further monetary stimulus to help the economy, which will weigh on prices as we approach the next MPC meeting. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.9814 and 1.9860, while an open below 1.9745 may find Support at 1.9699 and 1.9630.

Canadian Dollar (CDM8):

The CD opened higher at .9816, touched a morning Hi of .9817 and drifted lower as BoC member Jenkins stressed the need for near term economic 'stimulus', rate cut. Prices slid to a morning Lo of .9793, before bouncing into the afternoon session. Higher energy/metals prices and a lower DX helped the CD climb to a daily Hi of .9825, before ending the session at .9819, up 50 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/ 'improving' momentum indicators. Rate cuts look eminant and should weigh on prices, but higher commodity prices could lessen the slide. A higher opoen should find Resistance at .9832 and .9844, while an open below .9812 may find Support at .9800 and .9780.

Euro Currency (ECM8):

The EC opened higher at 1.5550 and followed most other major foreign currency markets lower after the ADP employment data. Prices slid to a morning Lo of 1.5530, before rebounding on DX weakness to a morning Hi of 1.5595. Prices drifted lower into the afternoon session, but turned higher as the DX weakened, sending the EC to a daily Hi of 1.5625, before sliding to a close of 1.5610, up 62 tics.The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/ 'firm' momentum indicators. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure ahead of the G-7 meeting on April 12-13 in Washington D.C.A higher open should find Resistance at 1.5647 and 1.5683, while an open below 1.5588 may find Support at 1.5552 and 1.5493.

Janpanese Yen (JYM8):

The JY opened lower at .9801 and slid to a morning Lo of .9795, before bouncing to a morning Hi of .9840 on DX weakness. As equity markets moved higher carry-traders pressured the JY to a mid-day Lo of .9770, before rebounding to a close of .9808, down 37 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. Profit-taking in the equity markets could see carry-traders taking profti/risk off the table and covering short JY positions, supporting higher prices. A higher open should find Resistance at ..9842 and .9876, while an open below .9806 may find Support at .9772 and .9736.

Published on Thu, Apr 3 2008, 10:41 GMT

Dollar Index

Wed, Apr 2 2008, 14:29 GMT
by Bob Kozak

The JY opened higher at 1.0009 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.0050 against the weaker DX as carry-traders closed short JY positions as risk aversion saw the Nikkei 225 down over 400 points overnight. A statement from Standard & Poors saying that "banks are almost done writing down subprime mortgage losses sent stock prices higher and the JYdown to an afternoon Lo of ..9920, before bouncing into the close of .9946, up 94 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'expensive' momentum indicators. With Stochastics indicating a Bearish Divergence and RSI approaching 'over-bot', technicians would tell Longs to tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. Exporters will 'lobby' for the MoF to consider some type of coordinated 'intervention' to ease volatility. With the DX poised to slide further on proposed rate cuts, the JY could see higher prices. A lower open may find Support at .9894 and .9842, while an open above .9972 should find Resistance at 1.0024 and 1.0102. Carry-traders may take on additional 'over-night' risk should the Nikkei carry the U.S. rally further.

Dollar Index (DXM8):

The DX opened lower at 72.40 after Carlyle Group announced that they are defaulting on at least $16.6B and creditors are siezing assets. Concerns from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs stating that the Feds $200B 'bail-out' liquidity provision may not be enough to stave-off further sub-prime woes weighed on sentiment, until a statement from Standard & Poors announced that banks are almost done writing down subprime mortgage losses. Stocks rallied and pushed the DX to a morning Hi of 72.59, before sliding to a morning Lo 72.21. The DX recovered to challenge at 72.58during the afternoon, but drifted to a close of 72.485, down 33 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'over-sold' momentum indicators. Further rate cuts will increase the yield-gap as traders rotate into higher-yielding foreign currency markets, sending the DX lower. A higher open should find Resistance at 72.645 and 72.805, while an open below 72.425 may find Support at 72.265 and 72.045.

British Pound (BPM8):

The BP opened higher at 2.0230, but retraced as the DX rose along with U.S. equity markets. Prices slid to a daily Lo of 2.0127, before bouncing to a close of 2.0137, up 46 tics. Traders will find a place for the 5.25% yield in their portfolios, knowing the DX is likely to be under pressure from further rate cuts and the MPC will likely keep rates on 'hold' until June. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'firm' momentum indicators. The bearish close may send a signal to longs to tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce volatility. A lower open may find Support at 2.0099 and 2.0062, while an open above 2.0165 should find Resistance at 2.0202 and 2.0268.

Canadian Dollar (CDM8):

The CD opened higher at 1.0123 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.0110 as the U.S.economic bail-out plan underwent criticism and news that more credit-market woes remain, weighed on Canada's economic outlook. Prices rose to a morning Hi of 1.0185 as oil/metal prices supported the move and equity prices rallied.. Prices drifted lower during the afternoon and ended the day at 1.0123, up 43 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators.Higher energy/metal prices can add to exporters revenue, provided the economic slowdown dosen't reduce the amount dramatically. A lower open may find Support at 1.0094 and 1.0064, while an open above 1.0139 should find Resistance at 1.0169 and 1.0214.

Euro Currency (ECM8):

The EC opened higher at 1.5587 and rose to another 'new' contract Hi of 1.5610 against the 'ailing' DX. Prices slid to a mid-day Lo fo 1.5566, before bouncing to a close of 1.5585, up 64 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'over-bot' momentum indicators. Central bankers are nervous about the current 'volatility' and higher prices in the EC and most other major foreign currencies as the DX weakens. Talk at the next G-7 conference may hinge around a way to 'intervene' to adjust the prices. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.5544 and 1.5573, while an open below 1.5515 may find Support at 1.5486 and 1.5457.

Published on Fri, Mar 14 2008, 15:39 GMT

Dollar Index 'Retraces' As Bailout Luster Dims

Thu, Mar 13 2008, 16:36 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Dollar Index (DXH8):

The DX opened lower at 72.675 as traders became more skeptical about how the Fed's 'bail-out' provision can help the U.S. economic recovery. Prices gave back most of Tuesday's gains, falling from a morning Hi of 72.75 to a morning Lo of 72.495. With a rate cut still likely on March 18th, the yield gap against most other major foreign currency markets should continue to weigh on prices. The DX continued lower to a daily Lo of 72.38, before closing the day at 72.43, down 86 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'over-sold' momentum indicators. Pressure should continue on prices through next Tuesday's FOMC meeting, where another rate cut is proposed. A lower open may find Support at 72.150 and 71.875, while an open above 72.655 should find Resistance at 72.930 and 73.435.

British Pound (BPH8):

The BP opened higher at 2.0178 and slid to a morning Lo of 2.0145, before rebounding to a mid-day Hi of 2.0245 as the DX retraced. With Oil prices above $110.00/bbl, higher inflation may keep rates on hold at 5.25%and allow the higher price help off-set higher commodity prices. The BP drifted lower into the close to end the day at 2.0233, up 212 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'firm' momentum indicators. The yield gap against the weaker DX should favor the BP and attract higher prices. A higher open should find Resistance at 2.0270 and 2.0308, while an open below 2.0208 may find Support at 2.0170 and 2.0108.

Canadian Dollar (CDH8):

The CD opened higher at 1.0133, but retraced along with the DX to a morning Lo of 1.0095 as traders continued to see the U.S. economy slowing, effecting the Canadian economy. Prices bounced into the afternoon session and ended the day at 1.0098, up 29 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. Higher commodity prices may support the CD, until a rate cut is emminent. A lower open may find Support at 1.0084 and 1.0071, while an open above 1.0109 should find Resistance at 1.0122 and 1.0147.

Euro Currency (ECH8):

The EC opened higher at 1.4771 and retraced to a morning Lo of 1.4753 on the DX rebound, before recovering to a mid-day Hi of 1.4793 ahead of the FOMC data. Prices rose to a daily Hi of 1.4880 as the DX retraced on the rate cut and closed the day at 1.4879, up 119 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'firm' momentum indicators. The dble-top at 1.4916 will keep traders attention as the ECB gets ready to meet on Feb.7th. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4922 and 1.4964, while an open below 1.4837 may find Support at 1.4795 and 1.4710.

Japanese Yen (JYH8):

The JY opened lower at .9370 and touched a morning Hi of .9372, before retracing to a morning Lo of .9335 on the DX rebound. Prices bounced higher ahead of the FOMC data and posted a daily Hi of .9398, before drifting to a close of .9382, up 2 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. A late afternoon sell-off in the equities could see carry-traders taking profit/risk off the table and covering JY short positions, pushing prices higher. A higher open should find Resistance at .9408 and .9435, while an open below .9372 may find Support at .9345 and .9309.

Published on Thu, Jan 31 2008, 15:44 GMT

Dollar 'Calm Before the Storm'

Wed, Jan 30 2008, 13:56 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Dollar Index (DXH8):

The DX opened lower at 75.67 and rose to a morning Hi of 75.85 on a better than expected Durable Goods report showing an increase of +5.2%, ex transports +2.6%. Equity markets rallied on the news but trailed lower along with the DX into the afternoon session. The anticipated 50bp cut was reduced by traders from 86% to 76% as traders adjust positions ahead of the 2:15 pm et announcement. The DX drifted to a daily Lo of 75.66, before ending the session at 75.67, down 3 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. It traders wanted to 'slam' the DX today ahead of the proposed 50bp cut, some were very disappointed. Could the 'fizz' be out of the bottle?? We shall see how the carry-traders respond over-night. The late afternoon equity rally could entice further 'risk-taking' by carry-traders that could bid higher yielding currencies further, which could weigh on the DX. Volatility could increase ahead of the rate decision at 2:15 pm et. A lower open may find Support at 75.600 and 75.535, while an open above 75.725 should find Resistance at 75.790 and 75.915.

Published on Wed, Jan 30 2008, 13:56 GMT

Yield−Gap Takes Toll on Dollar

Fri, Jan 25 2008, 14:12 GMT
by Bob Kozak

Alaron

Dollar Index (DXH8):

The DX opened lower at 76.25 and rose to a morning Hi of 76.32 on better than expected Jobless Claims, showing a decrease of 1000 vs the expected increase of 20,000. Pressure from carry-traders taking advantage of higher equity marketes and a wider yield-gap, that is expected to increase at the next Fed meeting, sent the DX lower throughout the day. Prices hit a daily Lo of 75.80, before ending the session at 75.87, down 70.5 tics. The close below the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative' w/ 'weaker' momentum indicators. With higher equity prices in Asia, we could see further shorting of JY and continued buying of higher yields, pushing the DX lower. A lower open may find Support at 75.550 and 75.235, while an open above 76.115 should find Resistance at 76.430 and 76.995.

British Pound (BPH8):

The BP opened higher at 1.9576, as carry-traders took advantage of the 5.50% yield as long as it lasts. BoE rate cuts may be less than the earlier projected 50bp. Prices dipped to a morning Lo of 1.9545 after release of U.S. Jobless Claims, then rebounded to a daily Hi of 1.9700, before drifting to a close of 1.9691, up 228 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/ 'improving' momentum indicators. A hgiher open should find Resistance 1.9746 and 1.9800, while an open below 1.9645 may find Support at 1.9591 and 1.9490.

Canadian Dollar (CDH8):

The CD opened higher at .9835 against a weaker DX and rose to a daily Hi of .9920 as higher energy/metals prices increased export revenues. The U.S. stimulus package, along with another 50bp rate cut on Jan.30, should help U.S. 'importers' continue to purchase Canadian exports and allow their economy to move forward. If not, the BoC seems to be accommodative to lower rates to help exporters survive. Prices ended the session close to the Hi at .9912, up 210 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/ 'improving' momentum indicators. A higher open should find Resistance at .9947 and .9983, while an open below .9885 may find Support at .9849 and .9787.

Euro Currency (ECH8):

The EC opened higher at 1.4642 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.4627, before continuing higher against a weaker DX. Comments from ECB council member Alex Weber, suggesting that those looking for 'rate cuts' from the ECB may 'wishful thinking', helped move prices higher against the 'weaker' DX to a daily Hi of 1.4761, before drifting lower into the close of 1.4741, up 168 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/'neutral' momentum indicators.

Japanese Yen (JYH8):

The JY opened lower at .9419 as higher equity prices in the U.S. enticed both foreign equity managers and carry-traders to assume more risk, sending the Nikkei up 263 points and carry-traders shorting a higher JY to purchase higher-yielding foreign currencies.Prices rose to a daily Hi of .9425, before retracing to a daily Lo of .9376 and bouncing to a close of .9398, down 95 tics. With global markets in turmoil and volatility increasing the risk to carry-traders, we will see if higher equity prices can continue to attract carry-traders to take on more risk and continue pressure on the JY. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ 'turning' momentum indicators. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A lower open may find Support at .9374 and .9351, while an open above .9400 should find Resistance at .9423 and .9449.

Published on Fri, Jan 25 2008, 14:12 GMT

Dollar Pressured by Talk of Further Rate Cuts.

Thu, Jan 24 2008, 14:16 GMT
by Bob Kozak

The EC opened lower at 1.4660 ahead of the ECB rate decision and slid to a morning Lo of 1.4659. While the ECB left rates 'unchanged' at 4.0% as expected, the 'hawkish' tone of ECB President Trichet's comments about possible inflationary pressure from the labor sector set a positive tone for traders.Prices rose to a daily Hi of 1.4815 as Fed Chrm. Bernanke's remarks about further U.S. rate cuts, sent the DX lower and bid the EC and most other foreign currencies higher. Prices ended the session at 1.4791, up 129 tics.The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/ 'firm' momentum indicators.A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4851 and 1.4911, while an open below 1.4755 may find Support at 1.4695 and 1.4599.

Japanese Yen (JYH8):

The JY opened lower at .9161 as traders continued to look to the U.S.slowdown for a key to export activity. Slower Leading Indicators at 10% weighed on the JY and slid to a morning Lo of .9158, before rebounding on the DX demise to a daily Hi of .9220 before drifting lower into the close to end the day at .9185, down 10 tics. Traders will key on the Nikkei and follow money managers 'risk' tolerance and either short JY and buy higher yielding foreign currencies or stand on the sidelines. A lower open may find Support at .9155 and .9126, while an open above .9188 should find Resistance at .9217 and .9250.

Published on Fri, Jan 11 2008, 15:35 GMT

Dollar Index 'Rebounds' from Recent Lows

Canadian Dollar (CDZ7):

The CD opened lower at .9984 as continued profit-taking in oil and precious metals weighed on prices. Traders were adjusting positions ahead of Tuesday's BoC rate meeting, that could produce a 25bp rate cut to 4.25%. Prices slid to a morning Lo at our initial Support level of .9969, before bouncing to a mid-day Hi of 1.0001. As oil prices moved higher, traders bid the CD to a daily Hi at our Pivot level of 1.0010, before sliding to a close of 1.0004, up 8 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'weak' momentum indicators. Technicians may look to 'cover' if the CD fails to close below the .618 Fib level of .9948 after the BoC rate decision. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.0020 and 1.0035, while an open below .9994 may find support at .9979 and .9953.

Japanese Yen (JYZ7):

The JY opened higher at .9080 after BoJ Governor Fukui commented that a 'rate-increase' may be needed to sustain economic growth, spurring carry-traders to cover shorts and driving prices to a morning Hi of .9094. Prices retraced to a mid-day Lo at our secondary Resistance level of .9065 as we enter the afternoon session. Traders kept the JY in a tight range throughout the afternoon and ended the day at .9067, up 55 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'neutral' momentum indicators. Look for carry-traders to follow equity traders and continue to take profit/risk off the table should equities continue lower in Japan. A lower op

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Fundamental

The Currency Futures Report

Economic Growth Yes, But What About Jobs?

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

All Eyes on Production (GDP)

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

A British Pounding

Will Canada Raise Rates?

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

Have Commodity Exports, Will Recover

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

Highlights

The September US Dollar broke below key 7750 support this week

Currency Trends

New Recommedations

US Dollar

Euro

Yen

British Pound

Swiss Franc

Dollar 'Pauses' Ahead of FOMC Results

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Cable Breaks Out on PMI Report, DX Drop

British Pound (BPU9):

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

Sterling 'Shines' As Housing & Stocks Prices Increase

British Pound (BPU9):

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

Chinese Equity Correction Sparks Flight to Quality in DX

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Euro Currency (ECU9):

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

Canadian Sets New High for 2009

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Euro Currency (ECU9):

Equity Rally Weighs on Dollar

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

Japanese Yen (JYU9):

Dollar 'Drops' on Equity Rally

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Dollar 'Slides' As Risk−Appetite Increases

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

Euro-Currency (ECU9):

Canadian Dollar 'Higher' on Improved Sales Survey

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Euro Currency (ECU9):

Yen 'Soars' As Carry−Traders Cover, Hit 'Stops'

Japanese Yen (JYU9):

Dollar Index (DXU9):

Euro Currency (ECU9):

Dollar 'Gives−Back' Gain on Late Equity Bounce

Dollar Index (DXU9):

British Pound (BPU9):