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The Currency Futures Report
4
0
Ceteris Paribus
Mon, Nov 16 2009, 08:00 GMT
by Alaron Team
Commitment of traders data released Friday November 13th showed an increase in positions betting against the US Dollar last week. Significant changes include increases in long positions in Canadian dollar and Japanese Yen and a decrease in net short positions betting against the British Pound for the first time in the last 4 weeks.
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week
Long 42,044 39,028
Short 20,166 19,196
Net 21,878 19,832
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week
Long 67,904 64,023
Short 42,731 41,832
Net 25,173 22,191
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week
Long 28,677 25,102
Short 44,534 44,007
Net -15,857 -18,905
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week
Long 25,717 21,171
Short 2,419 2,506
Net 23,298 18,665
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week
Long 30,168 27,862
Short 8,184 4,493
Net 21,984 23,369
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
11/09/09 week 11/03/09 week
Long 54,402 55,825
Short 6,968 5,442
Net 47,434 50,383
(Source Reuters)
Retail sales will be the first key report this week, set for release Monday at 730am Central time. According to Bloomberg, Retail Sales likely rose by 0.9% in October after falling by 1.5% in September, based on the median of 66 estimates in the survey. Retail sales is a monthly measure of consumer spending and is an important component of GDP. Unless we see a larger than expected increase in Monday's report, it is likely that we will see continued weakness in the US dollar as it tests the key 7500 support level.
Ceteris paribus is Latin for "Other things unchanged". Until we see significant signs that the US economy is showing significant jobs growth and sustained economic growth, ceteris paribus, the secular bear market in the US dollar is likely to continue. Look for opportunities to get short the US dollar in the week ahead.
Published on Mon, Nov 16 2009, 08:00 GMT
Archive
- Ceteris Paribus
Published On Mon, Nov 16 2009, 08:00 GMT - The Mother of all Carry Trades
Published On Mon, Nov 9 2009, 07:50 GMT - Economic Growth Yes, But What About Jobs?
Published On Mon, Nov 2 2009, 08:49 GMT - All Eyes on Production (GDP)
Published On Mon, Oct 26 2009, 07:54 GMT - Will Canada Raise Rates?
Published On Mon, Oct 19 2009, 07:30 GMT
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