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Research Sweden
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Home Precious Home
Wed, Jul 9 2008, 16:13 GMT
by Pär Magnusson
- • The one-off effect of the transition from an accommodative, high inflation and high interest rate monetary policy regime prior to the early 1990s to the current inflation-targeting low interest rate regime had a huge .discount factor. effect on the real estate market that has now come to an end.
- • High loan-to-value ratios among first-time buyers and higher interest rates combined with negative real income growth is a poisonous cocktail for the housing market. Swedish home prices could be headed for a fall!
- • A discontinuation of home price increases, or even a price decline, will reduce home equity withdrawal among Swedish homeowners. This may have a significant effect on consumption and construction investment in the Swedish economy.
- • Lower house prices would, ceteris paribus, be a negative factor for mortgage bonds, as the collateral pool would deteriorate. However, we must also point out that Swedish covered bonds have already suffered significantly during this financial crisis and are fundamentally undervalued.
Published on Wed, Jul 9 2008, 16:15 GMT
Archive
- The government presents the new bank stability plan
Published On Mon, Oct 20 2008, 16:00 GMT - Lessons from Swedish bank crisis management1
Published On Tue, Sep 30 2008, 17:00 GMT - Home Precious Home
Published On Wed, Jul 9 2008, 16:13 GMT
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