•  
  • New York 19:48
  • London 23:48
  • Barcelona 00:48
  • Tokyo 08:48
  • Sydney 10:48

  • SignUp | Login

New Europe Weekly

This report has been deactivated

A slow and fragile recovery awaits Hungary

Fri, Sep 4 2009, 13:37 GMT
by Stanislava Pravdova

Danske Bank A/S  |  View company's profile


This week we published our Macro Monitor on Hungary. It is an updated outlook on the Hungarian economy taking into account the latest economic releases for July and August.

Hungarian economic growth declined further in Q2 09 down to -7.6% y/y, but the decline is reaching the bottom and a slow and fragile recovery of the Hungarian economy awaits. We expect Hungarian GDP to contract 7.1% y/y in 2009 and 0.8% y/y in 2010.

July’s VAT hike is likely to slow down the recovery of the Hungarian economy significantly. The hike in VAT has pushed up inflation, which has turned real wage growth negative. Negative real wage growth has a negative impact on retail sales and consequently on private consumption, which has suffered deeply during the crisis.

The hike in VAT has pushed up inflation, but a strong base effect from the decline in oil prices in H2 08 will push inflation up further in the remainder of 2009. In general, however, there is no inflationary pressure in the Hungarian economy and inflation should only remain elevated temporarily. We expect inflation to drop within the Hungarian central bank’s (MNB) inflation target of 3.5% y/y +/- 1%-point around mid 2010.

Published on  Fri, Sep 4 2009, 13:41 GMT


Danske Bank | Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com

Archive


Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Vote:

6

0

Related reports

Continued Economic Recovery, Low Inflation by Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Fri, Mar 19 2010, 19:58 GMT

EUR/USD: No time for reversal yet by FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team
Fri, Mar 19 2010, 15:27 GMT

Discount rate discussions keeping floor under bonds by Interactive Brokers LLC
Fri, Mar 19 2010, 14:29 GMT

GoldCore Update: Sterling Gold Near Record Highs as Election Looms and Economic Outlook Uncertain by GoldCore
Fri, Mar 19 2010, 14:28 GMT

Political jitters on the rise in EMEA markets by Danske Bank A/S
Fri, Mar 19 2010, 14:13 GMT

eurhuf, indicator, hungary, commodities, currencies, energies

[ View All ]

Related content

Forex: EUR/USD ends week below 1.3550, first time in 10-months
FXstreet.com | Fri, Mar 19 2010, 20:31 GMT

Forex: Cable fell sharply on Friday
FXstreet.com | Fri, Mar 19 2010, 19:19 GMT

Forex: USD/JPY pulls back to 90.35
FXstreet.com | Fri, Mar 19 2010, 18:42 GMT

Forex: AUD up from lows and sleepy ahead weekend
FXstreet.com | Fri, Mar 19 2010, 17:25 GMT

Indices: FTSE closes with loses, correction
FXstreet.com | Fri, Mar 19 2010, 16:39 GMT

eurhuf, indicator, hungary, commodities, currencies, energies

[ View All ]

Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!


MG Financial Group
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
CitiFX Pro
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account		Saxo Bank A/S
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account		FXDD
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account

GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES!   Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program

Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

©2010 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.