日本語
Español
中文
- New York 02:29
- London 07:29
- Barcelona 08:29
- Tokyo 16:29
- Sydney 18:29
New Europe Weekly
5
0
Uncertainties building up in Russia
Fri, Jun 19 2009, 12:47 GMT
by Lars Christensen
Russian financial markets have stabilised in the last four months driven by renewed risk appetite in the midst of hopes of green shoots appearing in the global and Russian economies. This led to a doubling of the value of Russian equity markets and pushed the rouble around 10% stronger against the dual currency basket as oil prices advanced. Interest rates fell steeply too as the liquidity situation improved.
However, the economic outlook is uncertain, which increases financial risks. Data this week showed that Russian industrial output dropped 17.1% y/y in May, setting a new record low. Wage arrears are now affecting more than half a million workers and unemployment continues to rise. With high inflation and poor labour market dynamics the demand side of the economy has still not stabilised. Hence the outlook is rather uncertain, also taking into account large financial risks and high external repayments this year. We expect that Russian GDP to drop up to 8% in 2009, while staying relatively flat in 2010 (+ 0.5% y/y).
The economic recovery will only be gradual and if oil prices drop significantly the rouble will come under immediate pressure. A move down in oil prices towards USD 50/barrel would push the rouble towards the weak level of the trading band (basket/RUB 41) – 8-9% weaker than today’s level. Based on an strong rouble and lower interest rates we recommend hedging all short to medium term rouble risks.
Published on Fri, Jun 19 2009, 12:50 GMT
Archive
- The correction is not over yet
Published On Fri, Nov 6 2009, 13:13 GMT - On a knife-edge for the EMEA markets
Published On Fri, Oct 30 2009, 14:12 GMT - Carry protection disappearing in EMEA
Published On Fri, Oct 23 2009, 13:45 GMT - Risk sentiment strong, but Latvian worries weigh on CEE
Published On Fri, Oct 16 2009, 17:52 GMT - Latvian crisis takes centre stage
Published On Fri, Oct 9 2009, 20:21 GMT
Danske Bank
| Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
US: employment, not as bad as it looks by Danske Bank A/S
Fri, Nov 6 2009, 18:50 GMT
FX View - Headline unemployment rate creates dollar shocker by Interactive Brokers LLC
Fri, Nov 6 2009, 18:41 GMT
Forex Daily Overview - USD mixed, unemployment rises to 10.2% by Easy Forex
Fri, Nov 6 2009, 18:31 GMT
Weekly Market Commentary - Fed, BOE and ECB kept rates on hold by Mizuho Corporate Bank
Fri, Nov 6 2009, 15:45 GMT
US Employment: Skills and Policy Issues—Beyond Stimulus by Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Fri, Nov 6 2009, 15:25 GMT
indicator, highlighted, russia, usdrub, housing, energies
View AllRelated content
Forex: EUR/USD: Euro post weekly gains
FXstreet.com | Fri, Nov 6 2009, 22:49 GMT
CURRENCIES: Dollar Dips Vs. Yen As Jobs Data Have Fed On Hold
Dow Jones | Fri, Nov 6 2009, 22:14 GMT
Mexico Stocks Close Higher As Peso Weakens; IPC Rises 0.5%
Dow Jones | Fri, Nov 6 2009, 21:42 GMT
U.S. markets ended with small gains, up for the week; Dollar mixed
FXstreet.com | Fri, Nov 6 2009, 21:32 GMT
Canada Afternoon: C$ Ends Lower, Underperforms On Weak Jobs Data
Dow Jones | Fri, Nov 6 2009, 20:40 GMT
indicator, highlighted, russia, usdrub, housing, energies
View AllInterested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES! Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.