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New Europe Weekly
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Between a liquidity flood and unattractive valuations
Fri, Nov 20 2009, 07:53 GMT
by Lars Christensen
Hungarian and Polish rate decisions take centre stage
The Polish rate decision could be somewhat of a non-event as the Polish central bank (NBP) is likely to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%.
There will be more uncertainty about the Hungarian rate decision. Even though it seems to be a done deal that there will be yet another rate cut next week, there is some uncertainty about the size of it. Until recently we had expected that the MNB would finish its easing cycle on Monday with a 25bp rate cut. However, we must acknowledge that recent comments from MNB policy makers make it more likely that they will cut 50bp on Monday. Furthermore, the MNB is likely to keep the door open for even more rate cuts.
FX outlook: low volumes and little movement
While last week saw the return of some risk appetite, this week sentiment has been somewhat less bullish – not that sentiment has been bearish, but rather the markets have been boring. Not much up, not much down and volumes seem to be extremely low as we approach year-end.
Scorecard Trade of the week: Buy PLN/TRY
The signals from our score-card still suggest buying PLN/TRY, as PLN scores highest and TRY scores lowest on the Scorecard.
Published on Fri, Nov 20 2009, 07:53 GMT
Archive
- Between a liquidity flood and unattractive valuations
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 07:53 GMT - Between liquidity flooding and unattractive valuations
Published On Fri, Nov 13 2009, 13:36 GMT - The correction is not over yet
Published On Fri, Nov 6 2009, 13:13 GMT - On a knife-edge for the EMEA markets
Published On Fri, Oct 30 2009, 14:12 GMT - Carry protection disappearing in EMEA
Published On Fri, Oct 23 2009, 13:45 GMT
Danske Bank
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