http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-20.htmlNews and views Equity investors made for the exit door at the NY open, selling industries across the board, although chip makers Intel and Texas Instruments suffered larger falls on analyst downgrades. The S&P500 is currently down 1.6%, with similar losses recorded in Tokyo and Europe. US data, particularly the Philly Fed factory survey, was actually supportive, so the sell-off suggests fragile investor sentiment. Apart from oil (-2.4%), commodities are only slightly lower, and still nearFri, 20 Nov 2009 05:56:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-19.htmlNews and views Risk appetite weakened slightly, with a nod to US house building data which was weaker than expected. The S&P500 fell soon after the open and is currently down 0.5%, although it does remain around the cycle highs, so that the setback of the past two days could best be described as a consolidation in an uptrend. Most commodities gained in London but reversed in NY for little net change, the precious metals, gold, silver and platinum all making new 2009 highs in the interim.Thu, 19 Nov 2009 05:54:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-18.htmlNews and views Risk assets took a breath er (S&P500 -0.3%) and the dollar caught a bid (DXY +0.7%) on US data softer than expectations and some hawkish Fedspeak. PPI and industrial production disappointed, capacity utilisation almost on consensus. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said the Fed shouldn’t be paralysed by patches of lingering weakness from raising rates to contain inflation. The tone was in contrast to Bernanke’s comments yesterday, apart from the dollar-supportiveWed, 18 Nov 2009 05:55:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-17.htmlNews and views Risk appetite again improved, pushing the S&P500 1.7% higher as we write, to a 13 month high. The main factors at play were the APEC meeting’s pledge to maintain stimulus measures, and an improved retail sales report meeting expectations. Supporting risk late in the session, Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke in NY, and reiterated the “low interest rates for an extended period” expectation, citing constrained credit conditions and a weak labour market. Among other US data releases,Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:41:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-16.htmlNews and views Risk appetite partly rebounded from the previous session’s fall, ignoring a weak US consumer confidence report, but supported by the trade report showing rising import volumes – an indication the economy is recovering. The S&P500 gained 0.6%, noting Disney’s estimate-beating earnings, although banks fell 1.4%. Most commodities were firmer within recent ranges, except for oil which broke below its range and fell 0.8%, citing the consumer confidence report as well as theMon, 16 Nov 2009 06:04:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-13.htmlNews and views Risk appetite fell last night, ending an eight-day run higher. The decline was attributed to oil stockpiles growing, which in turn belted oil 2.8% lower, although that seems a convenient, rather than plausible explanation. A betterthan- expected US jobless claims report was ignored. The S&P500 is down 0.7% at 1300 EST. Other commodities also suffered, silver down 2.1%, and gold 1.1% lower after making a new high. Both metals formed bearish outside day reversals. US 10yrFri, 13 Nov 2009 05:59:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-12.htmlNews and views US equity markets opened strongly on the Veteran’s Day bank holiday, making a new 2009 high in the first hour on the back of China’s bullish set of economic data releases. After that, prices reversed to leave the S&P500 up 0.4% currently. Commodities were slightly firmer and gold made a fresh alltime high at $1119. The US treasury market was closed. Moody’s downgraded Iceland from Baa1 to Baa3. The US dollar made a fresh 2009 low around the London open, and bounced near theThu, 12 Nov 2009 06:02:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-11.htmlNews and views Markets were generally stable after six days of risk-affection, taking a rest ahead of tomorrow’s US holiday. US equities failed to continue the previous day’s strong performance, the S&P500 currently down 0.4%. The slight retreat was attributed to an earnings disappointment from MBIA, the world’s largest bond insurer which lost $728 million on credit derivatives. Fed members Yellen and Lockhart spoke of the fragility of the US recovery, supporting the ‘low for long’ viewWed, 11 Nov 2009 06:07:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-10.htmlNews and views Global equity markets reacted to the weekend’s G20 meeting which agreed to maintain stimulus efforts. US-based exporters, which have benefited from the cheaper dollar, outperformed, along with banks and financials, and the S&P500 is currently up 1.7%. Oil stood out among commodities, up 3.5%, partly due to a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico resulting in output cuts. Oil is yet to break above its three-week range. Gold maintained its uptrend to make a new high of $1111Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:15:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-09.htmlNews and views The US payrolls report was a mixed bag, the headline employment change slightly beating consensus when revisions were included, but the rise in the unemployment rate and the detail (e.g. less hours worked) less impressive. The S&P500’s price action was initially confused, spiking in both directions during the first two hours of trading, but ultimately ended 0.3% higher. A weak consumer credit report near the session’s end only slightly checked the rise. The rising optimismMon, 09 Nov 2009 05:50:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-06.htmlNews and views US equities are higher for the fourth consecutive day, the S&P500 currently up 1.2%, as are all 10 of the industry sub-indices. Data releases (jobless claims, worker productivity) beat consensus, and bellwether Cisco Systems, the world’s largest network equipment manufacturer, beat earnings estimates and talked of a positive outlook for sales fuelled by economic recovery. The VIX risk aversion index is back at 25.90 after flirting with danger level 30 early this week.Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:50:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-05.htmlNews and views Better risk appetite last night was helped by components in the ISM services report, such as that showing new order rose, and speculation the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) meeting shortly will continue to signal record low rates for an extended period. The S&P500 rose sharply at the open and then consolidated, currently up 1.0%. Banking stocks underperformed, down 1.2%. Oil is up 1.1%, a report showing a surprise drop in imports and refineries less active. Gold posted a recordThu, 05 Nov 2009 06:30:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-04.htmlNews and views Equities and currencies are little changed from yesterday’s Sydney close. US factory orders just beat consensus, and Warren Buffet placed an “all-in wager” on the US economy by buying the largest US railroad, offering some support to soggy US equities markets. The S&P500 is now down 0.2%, after a static session. The Euro Stoxx index lost 1.8%, hurt by UBS’ larger than expected Q3 loss. Commodities were looking soft until the Buffet news, when oil surged 3.8% in three hours,Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:14:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-03.htmlNews and views US economic data, a solid result from Ford, and earlier Chinese manufacturing data all provided some comfort to investors, helping the S&P500 gain 1.5% immediately at the open. The cheer only lasted a couple of hours, though, a Fed bank regulator Jon Greenlee commenting the banking system is vulnerable to commercial property loan defaults, and the index is now down 0.3%. The ISM manufacturing survey’s headline rate and the employment component were the attention grabbers,Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:09:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-02.htmlNews and views Spooked investors bailed from risk ahead of the Halloween weekend. There was little of substance to attribute the declines to, US economic data generally at or better than consensus, although US mutual funds’ year end may have contributed. The S&P500 fell at the open and kept going to close 2.8% down, banks (-4.1%) and financials (-5.3%) hit the hardest. Commercial lender CIT plunged 24% on expectations it would file for bankruptcy. The VIX index surged to over 30, a levelMon, 02 Nov 2009 05:44:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-30.htmlNews and views After six down days in US equities, there was something to soothe the bulls in the guise of an upbeat US GDP report for Q3, the +3.5% headline growth rate beating +3.2% consensus and reinforcing market perceptions the recession ended in June. US official President Obama’s chief economist, Christina Romer opined it marked the turn-around. Risky assets in the US and Europe rebounded, the S&P500 up 1.9% currently, and the VIX 10% lower. Copper (+3.1%) and crude oil (+3.5%) ledFri, 30 Oct 2009 05:23:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-29.htmlNews and views Another US data disappointment was the attributed catalyst for a continuation of the risk-averse sentiment for the sixth consecutive day. US new home sales plunged 3.6% compared to expectations of +2.6%. Adding to the negativity was a US investment banks’ downgrade to Q3 GDP from 3.0% to 2.7%, based partly on the shipments and inventories components of last night’s durable goods report. The S&P500 fell throughout and is currently down 1.0%. The VIX barometer of risk aversionThu, 29 Oct 2009 05:26:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-28.htmlNews and views The bearish mood prevailed for another day, risk assets slightly weaker and the US dollar slightly stronger. The S&P500 gyrated during the opening hour, liking the better US house price data, but then slipping after a poor consumer confidence report, currently down 0.2%. Commodities were little changed. US treasuries gained on the consumer data, as well as very strong demand for the record-sized two year auction (highest bid-cover since August 2007). The whole curve fellWed, 28 Oct 2009 05:32:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-27.htmlNews and views The US dollar followed through from the previous day’s minor reversal signal, bouncing on US and European equities’ weakness. Concerns that an $8,000 tax-credit for first time homebuyers in the US will be phased out dented confidence in equities, the S&P500 currently down 0.8%, and the Vix riskaversion barometer up 10%. Financials and banks were hit harder by speculation Bank of America may be required by the government to raise $45 billion in equity before it’s allowed toTue, 27 Oct 2009 06:05:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-23.htmlNews and views Mixed US data and mixed equities resulted in muted moves in the other asset classes. The gloss from the US leading index was dulled by weaker house prices and a modest bounce in jobless claims. The S&P500 slipped at the open, but is steadily recovering as we write to be up 0.5%, positive earnings surprises continuing (AT&T, McDonald’s and Travelers were notable last night). The previous session’s weak US equities close produced an outside day reversal signal, and weFri, 23 Oct 2009 05:54:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-22.htmlNews and views Currencies and commodities broke higher last night. The policy gap between the US central bank and others appeared to widen after comments from the BOE and the RBNZ, pressuring the US dollar lower. Continuing good US earning reports also helped risk sentiment, Yahoo and Morgan Stanley standing out. Of the 100 S&P500 companies to have reported, 81% beat consensus EPS estimates and 66% beat sales estimates. The index rose 0.7% at the open and hasn’t moved since. The Fed’sThu, 22 Oct 2009 05:37:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-21.htmlNews and views US equity markets and the dollar chose to follow economic data, rather than company earnings, for guidance last night. Consensus-missing housing starts disappointed a market which has pushed S&P500 company valuations to over 20 times reported earnings. The index opened lower on the data, and is now 0.9% down. Oil (-0.7%, and a key reversal) and copper (-1.4%) followed equities and stalled their recent multi-week rallies. US 10yr notes at 3.31% were 9bp lower from Sydney’sWed, 21 Oct 2009 06:04:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-20.htmlNews and views The bulls regained ascendancy last night after a stream of good US company earnings, among them Gannet (the largest US newspaper publisher), Texas Instruments and Caterpillar. Of the 44 S&P500 companies to have reported so far, 34 have beaten estimates. The index is currently up 1.0%. Also taken as a sign of improving economic conditions was a comment by the NY Fed that it has been preparing itself for an eventual FOMC exit decision, and has reviewed its reverse repoTue, 20 Oct 2009 05:45:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-19.htmlNews and views US equities fell on Friday, disappointing Q3 earnings reports from bellwethers General Electric and Bank of America, and a sub-consensus University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey weighing on investor sentiment. The S&P500 dropped at the open, and spent the remainder of the session recovering about half its losses to close -0.8%. Banks fared worse, down 3.4%. Oil followed on from Thursday’s notable breakout, gaining another 1.2%, but copper (-0.5%) only rangedMon, 19 Oct 2009 05:32:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-16.htmlNews and views Risk assets took a breather last night after an impressive two weeks. US data mostly beat consensus, the Empire manufacturing survey detail revealing good improvements in new orders and employment. Goldman Sachs’ earning beat estimates, but the stock was sold anyway – a sign informal expectations were too high. The S&P500 is little changed, but the financials’ index is down 1.6%. Oil futures broke above the key $75.50, gaining 3.1% on the day, helped by an unexpected declineFri, 16 Oct 2009 05:36:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-15.htmlNews and views Fresh 2009 highs in equities reflected a broad advance in risk appetite last night. The Dow Jones index passed the magical 10,000 level, while the S&P500 gapped 0.5% higher at the open and gained throughout the session to be up 1.7% currently. Earnings results from two major bellwhethers – Intel and JP Morgan – impressed investors, and the US retail sales report for September beat consensus. Oil (+1.0%) and copper (+1.8% on China imports) achieved most of those gains duringThu, 15 Oct 2009 05:48:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-14.htmlNews and views Risk markets peaked around the NY open. A double top in the S&P500 is now in place at 1080 after an influential equity analyst downgraded Goldman Sachs to neutral and said the banking sector is now at least fairly valued. The overall tone of earnings reports so far is an improvement from Q2, although the spotlight on revenue growth figures (versus cost-cutting) has seen some EPS consensus-beating stocks decline (e.g. Johnson & Johnson). The index fell at the NY open,Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:47:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-13.htmlNews and views Risk assets managed further modest gains in a evening session thinned by US, Canadian, and Japanese holidays. US equities remained open, the S&P500 up 0.7% to match the 2009 high of 1080 on low volume, buoyed again by Q3 earnings reports. The Fed’s Bullard tempered his earlier hawkish views, saying deflation was still a risk and lower unemployment was a condition to a rate rise. Oil (+2.3%) followed equities and the weaker US dollar, while copper (+0.8%) rose on China growthTue, 13 Oct 2009 06:24:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-12.htmlNews and views Asset classes decoupled on Friday night, a modest equities rally, US dollar gains, mixed commodities, and treasuries losses, making for an interesting mix. The S&P500 eked out a 0.6% gain after the majority of companies reporting so far beat EPS estimates. The US dollar index was boosted by Fed chairman Bernanke’s talk of exit plans, as well as reports the Fed trialled some liquidity reversing processes. That spooked US 10yr treasuries, which sold off by 18bp from the NYMon, 12 Oct 2009 06:11:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-09.htmlNews and views Fresh 2009 highs were the theme of the evening for many risk markets. The S&P500, currently up 0.9%, gapped higher at the open, inspired by improvements in US jobless claims and the previous day’s Alcoa Q3 earnings report, the first of the season. Later, Congress officials commented they may extend the first homebuyer tax credit, boosting building and property stocks. Commodities outperformed on the above, as well as the dollar’s decline, oil gaining an impressive 3.6% toFri, 09 Oct 2009 06:03:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-08.htmlNews and views Equity markets in the northern hemisphere took a breather yesterday. The S&P500 is little changed at +0.2%, having barely moved throughout the session. Some media debate around the likelihood of an extension to the US first home buyers’ tax credit scheme dented property and building firms, but otherwise there was little noteworthy news. Oil posted a decent loss of 2.5%, inventory-attributed, but metals were subdued, copper -0.5% and gold unchanged after initially making aThu, 08 Oct 2009 05:42:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-07.htmlNews and views US equities opened strongly again , on sentiment and expectations of good Q3 earnings, rather than any hard news, fading slightly over the past few hours to be up 1.0% (S&P500) as we write. Oil (+0.3%) and copper (+1.7%) moved in line with equities, although oil’s $1 fall in the last hour was more abrupt. Gold made an all-time high of $1044, benefiting from a report yesterday that the US dollar would be replaced as the oil invoicing currency (Iran commented further thisWed, 07 Oct 2009 05:55:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-06.htmlNews and views The US ISM services survey for September posted a positive surprise for markets, helping equities rebound from four days of selling. A major investment bank’s buy recommendation on banking stocks added to the sentiment, and as we write the S&P500 is up 1.2% after a strong open, the banks index up 3.8%. Commodities oil (+1.2%) and copper (+1.8%) moved in line with risk sentiment. US 10yr notes were unchanged since the Wellington close; after some minor buying early NY onTue, 06 Oct 2009 06:26:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-05.htmlNews and views The disappointing US payrolls report contributed to another down day in US equities, which in turn, kept a lid on risk currencies. The S&P500 dropped by 1% at the open, and spent the session’s remainder consolidating for a net 0.5% loss. European equities posted larger 1-2% losses, and oil (-1.2%) and copper (-2.0%) behaved as expected. The weak ISM factory orders report later had a negligible effect. The payrolls report gave US 10yr notes a 6bp boost down to 3.10% yield,Mon, 05 Oct 2009 05:58:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-02.htmlNews and views Risk markets took a hit last night on the back of two negative US data surprises. First up, jobless claims rose more than expected, although the trend improvement remains intact, so the jolt was minor. The later ISM manufacturing report did more damage, showing the important new orders/inventories ratio (a favoured lead indicator for production) tumbled sharply. Further, Westpac’s US surprise index is at risk of breaking lower, pointing to risk aversion ahead. The S&P500Fri, 02 Oct 2009 05:45:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-01.htmlNews and views Quarter-end window-dressing effects were unobservable during the first hour of US equities trading, the consensus-missing ADP payrolls and Chicago PMI reports helping the S&P500 drop 1.6% at the open. Buying then kicked in, and the index is unchanged as we write. The month-end currency fixing, during which equity fund managers rebalance and rehedge, had no significant impact. Oil gained an impressive 4.9%, a surprise drop in gasoline inventories a factor. Copper gained 3.0%Thu, 01 Oct 2009 05:58:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-10-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-09-30.htmlNews and views Risk markets offered few fresh clues from last night’s price action. Momentum from Monday’s equities rebound ensured a strong NY opening, helped also by a reported improvement in US house prices in July. Consumer confidence hit the wires an hour later, and quelled the enthusiasm, the S&P500 closing +0.1% and the Dow -0.2%. Industrial commodities were well contained, oil -0.3% and copper -2%. US 10yr notes were little changed from Sydney’s close, although the two US dataWed, 30 Sep 2009 05:39:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-09-29.htmlNews and views In a thinner US session (Yom Kippur holiday saw equity volume down 20%) the S&P500 rebounded at the open and held the gains to close up 1.7%. There was little of substance to attribute the bounce to, the second-tier data releases – the Chicago and Dallas Fed surveys – underwhelming, apart from reported M&A transactions including Xerox, and later Abbott Laboratories. Oil took equities’ lead, and noted an Iranian missile test, to gain 1.4%. Most US treasuries were stable,Tue, 29 Sep 2009 05:52:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-09-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-09-28.htmlNews and views Equities and risk currencies slightly extended a reversal from last week’s peaks, US data contributing to a 0.6% fall in the S&P500. Durable goods orders fell against both consensus and the previous month, while new home sales also disappointed. The large upward revision to consumer sentiment had less impact. Oil prices were unchanged, stabilised by US allegations Iran has been constructing a uranium facility. US 10yr notes rallied from 3.36% to 3.32%, the 2-10yr curveMon, 28 Sep 2009 06:19:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-09-25.htmlNews and views An across-the-board sell-off in risk markets occurred last night. Attributed events included the consensus-missing US home sales data and announcements from major central banks (Fed, ECB, BOE) of a wind-down of some elements of their financial market support programs. The Fed cited improvements in markets and waning demand for some liquidity programs as the reasons behind shrinking the Term Auction Facility and the Term Securities Lending Facility. The S&P500 fell from theFri, 25 Sep 2009 06:01:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/morning-report/2009-09-25.html