News and views
The yo-yo motion of risk sentiment continued last night, with risk assets slightly softer. The S&P500 is down 0.4%, following moderate falls across Asian and European bourses, the Shanghai composite registering a larger 3.5% fall. US data was mixed, consistent with forecasts of an exceedingly sluggish expansion. Q3 GDP met expectations at 2.8%, consumer spending, house prices and the Richmond Fed factory survey were weaker, while consumer confidence was stronger. US financial stocks fell 1.1% after the FDIC said its fund was in deficit, and that there were 552 “problem” banks, a 16 year high. Oil (-2.1%) tested the bottom of a two month range, metals only modestly weaker. The 5yr treasury auction was better bid than yesterday’s 2yr, the 2.175% yield beating 2.208% estimates, and the bid-cover of 2.8 above a 2.3 average. Notably, foreign bids were well above average.
Currencies were largely directionless. EUR gained ground from 1.4900 to 1.4990, following strong data. GBP was stuck in a 1.6500 to 1.6600 range, despite negative M&A talk, and the BoE’s King’s lower Sterling talk and hints of more QE. The yen was slightly firmer, from 88.80 to 88.40.
AUD washed around between 0.9140 and 0.9220 in a sideways direction.
NZD ranged between 0.7220 and 0.7300. AUD/NZD firmed from 1.2620 to 1.2670.
The minutes of the 4 November FOMC meeting shed more light on the ‘rules of disengagement’ – the conditions under which the Fed would begin its exit strategy from near-zero rates and unconventional easing. The committee noted that the US dollar’s decline had been orderly and would buoy exporters, though any upward pressure on inflation would bear watching.
US Q3 GDP growth was revised from 3.5% to 2.8% annualised. As expected, most of the downward revisions came in trade and construction, where the data were incomplete when the first estimate was published. As before, the largest contribution to growth came from a 2.9% pickup in consumption, boosted by the cash for clunkers scheme.
US Conference Board consumer confidence rose from 47.7 to 49.5 in November. Current conditions dipped slightly to a new low for the cycle of 21.0, but expectations picked up to 68.5 after a sharp drop to 67.0 in October.
US house prices posted moderate gains at best in September. The preferred Case-Shiller measure rose 0.3%, taking the annual rate of decline from -11.3% to -9.4% (the base effect of a sharp drop last September provided 1.5% of the improvement). The narrower FHFA measure was flat in September following a downward revised 0.5% drop in August.
US Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell from 7 to 1 in Nov, with most components softer and the jobs measure falling after two months of gains.
Eurozone industrial orders rose 1.5% in September, slightly ahead of forecasts, led by orders of capital equipment. Orders have risen by 11% from their lows in March.
German Ifo business climate index rose from 92.0 to 93.9 in November. Both current conditions and expectations were stronger and ahead of market forecasts.
German Q3 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.7% on the final estimate, though the details threw up some surprises. Consumption was even weaker than expected, falling 0.9%, but business investment, construction and imports were stronger.
Outlook
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook today: Last night’s price action offered no directional clues, apart from supporting the stronger AUD/NZD case. AUD/NZD should range between 0.9120 and 0.9220, while NZD/USD should be contained by 0.7200 and 0.7300. FOMC minutes later this morning could be a market-mover.
