News and views
The US holiday (Labor Day) yesterday and no major data releases meant a quiet London session for most asset classes except the AUD and NZD currencies. All the major European equity markets posted 1-2% gains, the Eurostoxx50 closing up 2.4%. US equity futures were open, and stepped higher just on the Sydney close and again after noon London, for a total post-Sydney gain of 0.8%. Oil futures rose until noon London but then reversed the move to be unchanged on the day. US 10yr notes closed in London unchanged at 3.44%.
The US dollar slipped further after the NZ close, to 77.87, still shy of the 5 August 77.43 support level. EUR peaked at 1.4362 after the Sydney close, slipping back to 1.4330-50 for the remainder of the evening. GBP peaked at 1.6378 around the same time, but underperformed thereafter to 1.6327, one investment bank issuing a sell-GBP recommendation on expected QE increases by the BoE. JPY firmed slightly against the USD, settling around 93.00.
AUD abruptly rose once the domestic session closed, from 0.8515 to 0.8565, continuing the move to 0.8577 before settling around 0.8560.
NZD spiked from 0.6880 to 0.6935, the rumoured 0.6900 option barrier giving way to a new 2009 high. AUD/NZD fell on the initial spikes to 1.2322 but settled around 1.2350.
There were no US data releases yesterday, due to the public holiday, and only minor data releases from Europe.
European Sentix Investor Confidence report showed an improvement in the headline index (from -17.0 to -14.6) in September, but a mild disappointment compared to market expectations of -13.7.
German manufacturing orders rose 3.5% m/m in July (median 2.5%), while June was revised down to 3.8% m/m from 4.5% m/m. July export orders declined 2.3% m/m, while domestic orders rose 10.3% m/m. Orders continue to rise strongly, and point to an upside surprise in Q3 GDP. Stimulus programs remain the main driving factor, however, and demand for consumer goods is subdued.
Outlook
AUD and NZD outlook today: AUD’s earlier upward break of 0.8480 was sustained last night, which argues for a higher AUD this week. NZD made its key break higher last night, and needs to hold those gains today to confirm the bullish case. The NAB business survey in Australia and building work in NZ are second-tier data releases today.
