US non-farm payrolls fall 247k in July

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Contributing to a DXY gain of about 1.2% on the data were GBP and CAD, with the latter also weakened by Canada’s disappointing -45K drop in Jul employment. The unexpectedly positive response of USD to firmer US data sparked talk of a paradigm change but there was no mystery in the bond market reaction. The 10 year T-note sold off from 3.74% to 3.88% then headed for the exits at 3.85%. The 2yr T-note yield rose 10bp to 1.30%. Crude oil and gold lost ground but base metals took heart from the signs of a recovering US economy, LME copper up 2.1%, aluminium 1.5%, zinc 2.7%. Commodities also enjoyed support from the late afternoon Beijing press conference where officials quashed fears of imminent monetary tightening.

The keenly awaited US employment report didn’t disappoint inasmuch as the FX price action was typically nasty following the release. The consensus-beating -247K and 9.4% headline numbers produced only a brief USD sell-off (the usual pattern this year), with USD then rebounding sharply, particularly vs EUR and JPY. EUR/ USD dropped about 2 cents from 1.4385 to 1.4180/85 into the weekend, taking a few hours to hit its lows. USD/JPY soared from 95.40 to 96.70 then extended to 97.55.

AUD/USD squeezed up about 75 pips to as high as 0.8454 but finished near its pre-NFP levels, at 0.8370.

NZD/USD finished at 0.6720, about 25 pips lower than pre-data, having visited 0.6820 in the meantime.

US non-farm payrolls fall 247k in July. Payrolls fell by 247k in July, not far off our 270k forecast loss but a clearly stronger result than the consensus for a 325k decline. Back revisions added 43k to the May-June jobs picture, so the latest three month average job loss is now just 331k, compared to 617k in the three months to April. What’s more, the separate household survey found just 155k of job losses, adding to the “less weak” character of the report. Indeed with the labour force actually shrinking, due to previously unemployed people giving up the job search, the participation rate fell enough to pull the jobless rate down a tick to 9.4%, its first decline since April 2008. Other detail in the report was positive, much of it centred around the auto sector. Factory jobs fell just 52k last month, thanks to a 28k jump at the automakers, a sharp turnaround from a 22k loss in June. Hours worked were flat overall, their first month without a decline yet this year. Within that, factory hours worked rose 0.4% and auto plant hours surged an unheard of 12%!

German industrial production fell 0.1% in June. More evidence here of Germany factory activity bottoming out at very weak levels, with May’s bounce mostly sustained.

UK producer prices fell –1.4% (input) but rose 0.3% (output) and 0.5% (output core) in July, so a mixed bag of results in the latest month but with input prices down –12.2% yr and core output prices up just 0.2% yr, the Bank of England is not going to be especially worried about inflationary pressures re-emerging in the factory sector.

Canadian jobs fell by a steeper than expected 45k in July, although the jobless rate held steady thanks to falling labour force participation (as in the US). Private jobs, full-time, construction were sectors that featured as especially weak, while self employment actually jumped 35k. Overall, we suspect this July outcome overstates weakness in the Canadian economy heading into H2 2009, just as the April and June data created an over-optimistic impression. The not seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI fell 6.4 pts in July but it typically falls more than that in July so the report is actually suggestive of some underlying recovery.