News and views
All eyes were on the S&P500 last night, watching for signs of a breakdown, as it sits perilously close to the 200 day moving average support level. To that we add the Dow Industrials did break below a neckline at 8000. The S&P500 closed down 2.0%, led by growth stocks (rather than financials). Talk by a US economic advisory panel of further possible government stimulus added to investors worries all is not well. Oil and copper both fell by 2.6%. US 10yr treasuries rallied 6bp, and 3mth Libor fell by another 1bp to 0.54%.
The US dollar dipped on earlier equities strength, but recovered on the selloff in risk from noon London. The EUR mirrored that action, rallying to 1.4050 (strong German factory orders may have added to the move) before falling back to minor support at 1.3900. GBP’s morning rally was dampened by the downbeat UK factory orders report, reaching only 1.6260 before falling to 1.6120. JPY firmed amid the gloom, from 95.45 to 94.70 against the dollar.
AUD peaked around 0.8040, in line with equities, and then fell to 0.7900. An article by influential columnist McCrann, which said the RBA did the right thing, had no market effect.
NZD reached 0.6395 before dropping to 0.6300, residual effects from the earlier bullish business opinion survey cushioning. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.2510 and 1.2585, an hourly head-and-shoulders pattern arguing for lower today.
No US data.
German factory orders jumped 4.4% in May, well ahead of the market forecast of +0.5%. Domestic orders rose 3.9% while foreign orders rose 5.2%. Orders remain down 29.4% on a year ago, but this is a welcome improvement in activity data in a region where the ‘green shoots’ to date have largely been confined to confidence surveys.
UK industrial output fell 0.6% in May and was down 11.9% on a year ago. Durable goods recorded a strong 6.6% increase, but aside from utilities most other sectors were weaker.
Canadian Ivey PMI surged from 48.8 to 58.2 in June, the highest since September last year and well up from the low of 36.1 in January. This series is not seasonally adjusted and can be jumpy from month to month, but the underlying trend does appear to be improving.
Canadian building permits rose 14.8% in May. Most of the rise was in apartments, up 40.6%, but single home permits also rose by 1.5%. The number of permits is now 28% above the lows reached earlier this year, consistent with recent signs of stabilisation in the housing sector.
Outlook
Having retraced 50% of the move down (since 30 June), NZD appears ready to resume its recent trend lower, and we look for a break below 0.6250 over the next few days. Any upside price action should be capped at 0.6400. The next important event on the calendar will be the Australian employment report tomorrow.
