News and views
A quiet night, thanks to the US holiday. S&P futures are down 1%, and Asian and Euro-zone equities all ended 1% to 2% lower, Asia no doubt rattled by the shocking Japanese GDP print yesterday, as well as rapidly spreading aversion to emerging markets. President Obama said in the Washington Post that bank nationalisation is not off the table. Conversely, the UK Government said it wasn’t considering nationalising Lloyds, despite downgrading it (as well as RBS) to AA3. BOE’s Bean again alluded to stimulus measures, apart from rate cuts, and said depreciation of the GBP is needed for rebalancing. Commodities were little changed, apart from oil (-2%, but recovered early NZT) and copper (-3%). Russia said it had increased the gold share of its reserves, and will continue the trend in 2009.
NZD price action was fairly dull, 0.5160 to 0.52, with a slight downward bias. Yesterday’s Q4 PPI input prices were much lower than expected, supporting the view that inflation is off the RBNZ’s radar for now. There is talk of the first government guaranteed NZD Uridashi issue to be marketed next week.
AUD/USD traded in a very tight range of 0.65 +/-20pips, while AUD/NZD was bound by 1.25 to 1.2580. The RBA’s February meeting minutes will be released today, perhaps offering clues regarding the next rate cut.
EUR managed a one cent range of 1.2730 to 1.2830, with little net movement. Despite the negative press, GBP bounced from 1.4150 to 1.5320, possibly aided by a positive surprise in house price data. JPY tracked sideways between 91.5 and 92, forming an interesting rising wedge pattern (these usually break upwards).
No US data. Presidents’ Day holiday.
Canadian manufacturing shipments fell 8.0% in Dec, their steepest one month decline since at least the early 1990s - and the fifth fall in a row. About half of the latest decline reflected lower volumes, the rest was mostly due to lower prices for energy shipments. Yet further evidence that Q4 GDP growth weakened sharply in Canada, as it did in most other parts of the world that have already reported.
UK house prices up 1.2% in Feb according to Rightmove - the second major UK house price measure to record a surprise gain in early 2009 (HBoS was up 1.9% in Jan). However the annual price measure slid from –7.3% yr to –9.1% yr due to unfavourable base effects. That downtrend is probably a better guide to the true house price picture, although the Rightmove measure is not yet falling as fast in annual terms as the major lender price indices.
Outlook
NZD is heading lower towards initial support at 0.5150, which should hold today. It will be again be quiet, with few clues from the overnight session, thanks to the US holiday. Any bounce should be capped at 0.5250.
